Start with lower contracts for Sandin and Liljegren. They have very little negotiating power.

Robertson should be ready to graduate.

Don't bother with Crouse.

Muzzin is the X factor now though. He's had some time to rest. It's time to see if his dip in play was health related, or the start of his decline.

If he's declining, they pretty well have to move him this summer, and try to sign Manson type. Sandin would take a top 4 role then.

And I say that as someone that thinks Muzzin was probably the most important Leaf last season.

They’ll buy out Ritchie before giving up draft picks to move him.

"Their going to have to trade at least 2 players imo and sign some low priced role players"

This has been how the Leafs have had to handle every offseason since the first year of the Matthews and Marner contracts. With the money that those guys are making (and have more than earned it should be said) there was never going to be a real middle class on this team. You were going to have your stars and then bargain bin guys. And that can work, if you have the right bargain guys. The question was always could they find the right guys. Bunting and Kase seem to be working well. Spezza has been great. Holl and Kerfoot...sometimes they're good (really good even!) sometimes they're not. And some bets just don't work (Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds even though they keep carting him out there, Nick Ritchie).

As for what they do next season- Robertson is going to be pushing for a spot. Good player on an ELC. Amirov could be there too. Mikheyev you probably let go (he asked for a trade anyway). You try to shed one of Holl/Dermott and Ritchie like you did. I think you're probably about a million too high on Lilijegren and there's no reason he should be making more than Sandin. If there's something that makes sense you can probably move Kerfoot. I might also try to keep Campbell and sell Mrazek instead if Campbell comes at a reasonable (between 4-5 million) price. And idk why you're not re-signing Spezza, he's been more than adequate as a role player and the organization seems to really value him.

By not signing Mikheyev, replacing Crouse with Robertson, and knocking a million off of Lilijegren you're probably looking about 3-4 million to try and upgrade 2LW. Or maybe you just stick with Kerfoot.

Overall point is though they'll be fine next offseason unless they f*ck up in the playoffs again and then it doesn't matter because they're probably moving a big name regardless.

As well as Sandin and Liljegren have been playing they are both playing sheltered minutes. I don't see why either would be able to top what Dermott has been making.

I don't see either topping $1.5m. Liljegren could end up around $1m.

I just think if the leafs expect Liljegren to play top 4 he should make as much as Sandin or more. I didn't resign Spezza because one of these years his age is going to catch up to him. imo

Bunting Matthews Marner
Nylander Tavares Ho-Sang
Robertson Kampf Kase
Steeves Spezza Simmonds
Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Liljegren
Sandin Dermott

Rubins
Holmberg

Campbell
Mrazek

Traded Ritchie, Kerfoot, Holl

Blues dont have cap for holl or need

You really think the still handy Missouri born Maroon is coming to the Leafs for 1.1m?

If the Leafs promise him a Cup I could see him considering it to keep the unreal Championship run going...

I believe both have a QO of 120% so that puts Liljegren at $1.036 MIL so maybe $1.1 and Sandin at $1.073 MIL so maybe $1.25 MIL for 2 years?

Yeah, next season when the Cap will be tight it a Ritchie buy out would only cost the Leafs $300,000. Peanuts! $1.1 MIL the following year.

Seems about right.

In a perfect world it would be nice to lock up Sandin at 6 x 4M (as that would be a bargain soon). But can't see that being an option.

Agreed. That would cement the LD.

A buyout makes a lot of financial sense next year.
I hope Dubas sends him down to the Marlies this season. If another team claims him great... if not his salary would count for $1,375,000 against the cap.
This would allow them to have a 21 man roster and not have to trade Engvall, Holl, or Dermott.

Looks fairly accurate

I agree with you in general that players playing prominent roles should make a decent amount of money but that's just not really how the RFA market works. For a 22 year old with only one season under his belt, no arbitration rights and not a lot of points to speak of the team pretty much can pay you whatever they want. Look at Dermott- he had 156 games played in the NHL over three seasons and put up a handful of points (more per game than Lilijgren is on track to do) and all he's making is 1.5 for two years. That's probably the best Lilijgren can hope for, top four role or no.

As for Spezza, yeah I agree any player that's his age carries some risk but I don't know that the risk is anymore than Maroon, Gagner or Simmonds. Spezza is playing up to or outplaying all of those guys this season and I think any of them are just as likely to have age catch up with them. Any non-elite player over 30 in general is on borrowed time and the physical ones are likely to have their bodies break down earlier than guys like Spezza. You're taking the risk either way, might as well stick with the guy who knows your system and works well and everyone seems to really like already.

You overpaid players and brought in others needlessly.
Most importantly, didnt sign Campbell.

I think we could see Ritchie, Mzraek, Holl and Dermott all gone.
Not sure if you know but Mikheyev requested a trade at the end of last season... he will be gone one way or the other.

I think number one priority should be reaign Campbell and look to upgrade a D partner for Muzzin