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Forecasting

Créé par: exo2769
Équipe: 2021-22 Blackhawks de Chicago
Date de création initiale: 29 nov. 2021
Publié: 29 nov. 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
I'm going to start this out with the obvious. The Hawks aren't making the playoffs. Let's take a look at the math. If you go Pre-Covid and looked at the last place teams making it into the playoffs...they average around 30 loses. Some 28/29 some 31/32 due to # of OT losses, but on average you miss the playoffs if you have more than 30 losses. The Hawks have 12 through 21 games which means they'll need to win ~70% of the rest of their games.

You want to know who's winning 70% of their games... CAR, TOR, EDM. That's it. Not one single team in the Central is currently winning 70% of their games, but the Hawks will need to for the rest of the season in order to be the bottom seed in the Central...aka... It's not happening.

(82 - 21 = 61 games left) ( 18 / 61 = .295 Losses)
Transactions
1.
CHI
  1. Koskinen, Mikko
  2. Turris, Kyle
  3. Choix de 2e ronde en 2022 (EDM)
  4. Choix de 2e ronde en 2023 (EDM)
Détails additionnels:
Summary of trade. MAF for (1) 2nd round pick, plus a (1) round bump for taking on Turris while providing LD depth.
EDM
  1. Fleury, Marc-André (3 500 000 $ retained)
  2. Gustafsson, Erik
  3. Choix de 3e ronde en 2022 (EDM)
2.
CHI
  1. Murray, Matt
  2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2022 (OTT)
Détails additionnels:
MM is owed $18M for the rest of his contract.

This saves Melnyk $6.5M, while also reducing long term cap, while also getting potential upside with Strome.
OTT
  1. Johnson, Tyler
  2. Shaw, Andrew
  3. Strome, Dylan (1 500 000 $ retained)
Détails additionnels:
TJ and Strome are owed approx. $11.5M and there's some small upside on Strome albeit at this point not too much. Shaw has retired. He's a cap hit which OTT can easily take for the rest of this year.

Why should the Hawks even consider this?!?!?! It's not obvious, but Shaw leaving should confirm that season ending bonuses won't roll into next year. The Hawks don't currently have a goalie next year and while I don't like Murray's cap hit...I also don't like TJ's cap hit for a #4C either. I'll roll the dice with this because of the pick.
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
Enfoui
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2022
Logo de CHI
Logo de EDM
Logo de OTT
Logo de TOR
Logo de VGK
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CBJ
Logo de CHI
2023
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de TBL
Logo de EDM
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
2024
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2081 500 000 $68 150 880 $452 439 $3 382 500 $13 349 120 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
AG
UFA - 3
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
2 625 000 $2 625 000 $
AD
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
3 700 000 $3 700 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance2 500 000 $$2M)
C, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
6 400 000 $6 400 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
975 000 $975 000 $
AG, C
UFA - 2
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
C
RFA - 2
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
842 500 $842 500 $ (Bonis de performance32 500 $$32K)
AG, C, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
912 500 $912 500 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
AD, C
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
880 833 $880 833 $
AD, C
RFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
850 000 $850 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
5 400 000 $5 400 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
3 850 000 $3 850 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
800 000 $800 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
4 550 000 $4 550 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
4 687 500 $4 687 500 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
DG
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
1 350 000 $1 350 000 $
DG
RFA - 3
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
811 667 $811 667 $ (Bonis de performance32 500 $$32K)
AG, C
RFA - 1

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29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 0
#1
sensonfire
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Ottawa says "Thank you, Come again!"
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29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 8
#2
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The Oilers don't need depth LHD (they have tons of them!) and Turris can be buried for next to nothing.

If I'm reading your comments correctly, removing those guys makes the trade:

Koskinen
2nd
3rd

- for -

Fleury (50% retained)
3rd

This makes more sense from a value perspective, but what does Edmonton gain from it? A more experienced backup and $1M in cap space at the cost of a 2nd. That might be worth it for them if they can use that $1M for an upgrade elsewhere.
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29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 12
#3
Serf
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CHI
Murray, Matt
2022 2nd round pick (OTT)
Additional Details:
MM is owed $18M for the rest of his contract.

This saves Melnyk $6.5M, while also reducing long term cap, while also getting potential upside with Strome.
OTT
Johnson, Tyler
Strome, Dylan ($1,500,000 retained)
Shaw, Andrew
Additional Details:
TJ and Strome are owed approx. $11.5M and there's some small upside on Strome albeit at this point not too much. Shaw has retired. He's a cap hit which OTT can easily take for the rest of this year.

Why should the Hawks even consider this?!?!?! It's not obvious, but Shaw leaving should confirm that season ending bonuses won't roll into next year. The Hawks don't currently have a goalie next year and while I don't like Murray's cap hit...I also don't like TJ's cap hit for a #4C either. I'll roll the dice with this because of the pick.

Don't believe all the anti-Murray hype, it's actually the pro Gustavsson crowd lobbying for their goldenboy. Now that he's in, there will be more focus on the team in front of him, namely Zaitsev. Zaitsev isn't a problem for Murray, only Gustavsson. There's no predicting what the Sens will do with Murray, but they aren't trading a good asset with him for that package. Save me from the arguments, you want to make the trade because the assets you're receiving are better than you're giving, and that's why Ottawa doesn't do it. There's no need for Strome if Stützle is a centre, and they don't want the other two pieces.
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29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 13
#4
KFTW
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How long is TJ out?
29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 14
#5
KFTW
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Quoting: sensibleguy
CHI
Murray, Matt
2022 2nd round pick (OTT)
Additional Details:
MM is owed $18M for the rest of his contract.

This saves Melnyk $6.5M, while also reducing long term cap, while also getting potential upside with Strome.
OTT
Johnson, Tyler
Strome, Dylan ($1,500,000 retained)
Shaw, Andrew
Additional Details:
TJ and Strome are owed approx. $11.5M and there's some small upside on Strome albeit at this point not too much. Shaw has retired. He's a cap hit which OTT can easily take for the rest of this year.

Why should the Hawks even consider this?!?!?! It's not obvious, but Shaw leaving should confirm that season ending bonuses won't roll into next year. The Hawks don't currently have a goalie next year and while I don't like Murray's cap hit...I also don't like TJ's cap hit for a #4C either. I'll roll the dice with this because of the pick.

Don't believe all the anti-Murray hype, it's actually the pro Gustavsson crowd lobbying for their goldenboy. Now that he's in, there will be more focus on the team in front of him, namely Zaitsev. Zaitsev isn't a problem for Murray, only Gustavsson. There's no predicting what the Sens will do with Murray, but they aren't trading a good asset with him for that package. Save me from the arguments, you want to make the trade because the assets you're receiving are better than you're giving, and that's why Ottawa doesn't do it. There's no need for Strome if Stützle is a centre, and they don't want the other two pieces.


Im the CEO of the Gustavsson fan boy club. Been since last year.
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29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 16
#6
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Quoting: csick
Im the CEO of the Gustavsson fan boy club. Been since last year.


I've liked Gustavsson since he was drafted by Pittsburgh, but in all fairness, he isn't elite, Murray can be.
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29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 17
#7
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exo2769
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Quoting: sensibleguy
CHI
Murray, Matt
2022 2nd round pick (OTT)
Additional Details:
MM is owed $18M for the rest of his contract.

This saves Melnyk $6.5M, while also reducing long term cap, while also getting potential upside with Strome.
OTT
Johnson, Tyler
Strome, Dylan ($1,500,000 retained)
Shaw, Andrew
Additional Details:
TJ and Strome are owed approx. $11.5M and there's some small upside on Strome albeit at this point not too much. Shaw has retired. He's a cap hit which OTT can easily take for the rest of this year.

Why should the Hawks even consider this?!?!?! It's not obvious, but Shaw leaving should confirm that season ending bonuses won't roll into next year. The Hawks don't currently have a goalie next year and while I don't like Murray's cap hit...I also don't like TJ's cap hit for a #4C either. I'll roll the dice with this because of the pick.

Don't believe all the anti-Murray hype, it's actually the pro Gustavsson crowd lobbying for their goldenboy. Now that he's in, there will be more focus on the team in front of him, namely Zaitsev. Zaitsev isn't a problem for Murray, only Gustavsson. There's no predicting what the Sens will do with Murray, but they aren't trading a good asset with him for that package. Save me from the arguments, you want to make the trade because the assets you're receiving are better than you're giving, and that's why Ottawa doesn't do it. There's no need for Strome if Stützle is a centre, and they don't want the other two pieces.


The 1st thing to admit for OTT fan base is the Melnyk is cheap. Then it's not a far leap at all to suggest that if he's saving $6.5M...that means he might spend $6.5M on an area of need vs an AHL goalie. YES, I see POTENTIAL value in the trade. Key key emphasis on potential. This could very easily be the wrong move for the Hawks.
29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 23
#8
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exo2769
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Quoting: csick
How long is TJ out?


It shouldn't be too much longer. I don't have any recent updates though.
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29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 27
#9
KFTW
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Quoting: sensibleguy
I've liked Gustavsson since he was drafted by Pittsburgh, but in all fairness, he isn't elite, Murray can be.


Gus is elite . Doesn’t help when the defence is garbage and give up so many high scoring opps. But yeah he’s elite
29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 31
#10
Chicago
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While an interesting idea, it doesn't leave the hawks with much wiggle room in free agency to improve. Let's face facts, this team is icing two 4th lines. I think the best bet the hawks have would be to sell this deadline, Columbus is miles ahead of them and will continue to improve with next year's 1st as well (Fingers crossed it's in the top 2 somehow). However at this point, they can't focus on where that pick ends up, they need to figure out how to complete a one year retool to make this offense more relevant. I don't think Matt Murray helps any of their needs in the coming seasons. Lankinen has been good and there's several goaltenders that are UFAs this season.
29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 50
#11
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exo2769
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Quoting: NickC1988
While an interesting idea, it doesn't leave the hawks with much wiggle room in free agency to improve. Let's face facts, this team is icing two 4th lines. I think the best bet the hawks have would be to sell this deadline, Columbus is miles ahead of them and will continue to improve with next year's 1st as well (Fingers crossed it's in the top 2 somehow). However at this point, they can't focus on where that pick ends up, they need to figure out how to complete a one year retool to make this offense more relevant. I don't think Matt Murray helps any of their needs in the coming seasons. Lankinen has been good and there's several goaltenders that are UFAs this season.


There's a couple things that go into this.

*I'm not "fearful" of bonus overages, but it's something I'm focused on. Right now the Hawks have zero cap space and there will certainly be some amount of bonuses even for games played. Trading Shaw away and getting ourselves out of the LTIR usages could save us cap next year that'll likely be equal to the $1.25M delta in cap space. Could be better, could be a little worse, but certainly needs to be considered. This leaves the $1.25M cap hit in (2) years from now. I think with Toews/Kane/Connolly off the books we can find $1.25M in cap and still get players.

*That 2022 OTT 2nd will be a pretty good pick. OTT will certainly like saving $6.5M in cash.
29 nov. 2021 à 12 h 59
#12
Chicago
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Quoting: exo2769
There's a couple things that go into this.

*I'm not "fearful" of bonus overages, but it's something I'm focused on. Right now the Hawks have zero cap space and there will certainly be some amount of bonuses even for games played. Trading Shaw away and getting ourselves out of the LTIR usages could save us cap next year that'll likely be equal to the $1.25M delta in cap space. Could be better, could be a little worse, but certainly needs to be considered. This leaves the $1.25M cap hit in (2) years from now. I think with Toews/Kane/Connolly off the books we can find $1.25M in cap and still get players.

*That 2022 OTT 2nd will be a pretty good pick. OTT will certainly like saving $6.5M in cash.


That's fair, i'm not really worried about the bonus overages either. Moving Johnson for a bigger contract is my main concern. It doesn't help the future outlook much, and it'd be easier to sign Lankinen to ~$3M a year and find UFA goalie for a similar price to have a 1A-1B tandem. I get that 2nd round pick would be decent, but there are other ways to get a good pick that could be explored (Kubalik trade, selling De haan and Strome, selling Fleury as you did here).
29 nov. 2021 à 20 h 46
#13
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Modifié 29 nov. 2021 à 20 h 56
Quoting: csick
Gus is elite . Doesn’t help when the defence is garbage and give up so many high scoring opps. But yeah he’s elite


This is elite



Trying a new site, I hope this works
29 nov. 2021 à 21 h 7
#14
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Quoting: sensibleguy
This is elite



Trying a new site, I hope this works


This is elite, and this isn’t Gustavsson

FFaCruxXsAkGIq1?format=jpg&name=large
29 nov. 2021 à 21 h 10
#15
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Quoting: sensibleguy
This is elite, and this isn’t Gustavsson

FFaCruxXsAkGIq1?format=jpg&name=large


@csick I wasn’t sure if you got tagged when I finally got it to work
29 nov. 2021 à 21 h 49
#16
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exo2769
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Quoting: sensibleguy
This is elite, and this isn’t Gustavsson

FFaCruxXsAkGIq1?format=jpg&name=large


Are you cherry picking specific games over two different seasons?
29 nov. 2021 à 22 h 50
#17
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Quoting: exo2769
Are you cherry picking specific games over two different seasons?


It's the stretch from when the new goalie coach was hired, and the Sens held Murray out a couple extra games, through to the Kreider knee to the head, but it's meant to show what elite looks like. This wasn't a 19 saves on 20 shots period, it was 7 games.
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