Isles would decline that IMO. No need

we can trade u Allen too

Would Chiarot actually be playing top pair LD in EDM? (with nurse out)

Somehow I think Holland giving up a first for Chiarot is a good possibility.

It's him or Keith. Neither is a particularly great option.



I can barely tolerate the idea of a fully-retained Chiarot being worth a first: the Savard comparison is so off given the handedness AND the fact that Chiarot has been awful this year. The maximum I'd prefer to give up is a 2nd and a mid-tier prospect, a Benson, Lagesson, or Marody-type.

If the Oilers are moving a 1st round pick, why not bring back a De Haan or a Lindholm-type defender or someone with term? Someone with actual top-pairing value for a team that should be looking to actually contend this year?

To be fair, Savard was equally as bad or even worse in CBJ prior to tampa acquiring him last deadline.

Well, I think you're getting a little ahead of yourself, I don't think Edmonton is ready to contend yet, but I agree that theOilers would be better off looking for a better defenseman. It's just after what Holland gave up for Keith, I could see him panic with Nurse out and overpay for someone like Chiarot.

Savard had a really, really good track record leading up to that season however and had six years of top-pair workloads. Chiarot's only ever been top-four good with the Habs. I'm not convinced with his track record and ultimately what would convince me is if he went and rebounded elsewhere such that Edmonton doesn't assume that risk.

One of those odd cases where I'd much prefer to admit I was wrong than gamble on being right.



Holland will probably panic yes.

I specifically said "should be looking to contend", not that they are contending. The hockey gods gave them a legitimate shot at winning their division and the playoffs are a crapshoot. The western conference is within reach and if they're serious about making a bonafide run then they must do better than Chiarot.

If it were up to me, I'd dress 7 d-men and double shift McDavid and Draisaitl, and perhaps Hyman and RNH on occasion... just to give the big guns a breather. Edmonton has the last change, so they can mix and match as required.

Its easy to forget that last season Lagesson played well with Larsson, on the second pair. If not for injury, he may have finished the year in that position. I'm not going to try convincing anyone that Lagesson is top 4 NHL d-man, but I do think there is a possibility he might surprise people. I'd start with Keith and Ceci, followed by Lagesson and Bouchard, and then alternate Broberg, Russell and Barrie. Russell can play both sides, and Barrie can play up and down the rotation, so there is plenty of flexibility should changes be necessary. The extra blue liner provides options that could lessen the pressure on Keith and Ceci. If the Oilers need to run and gun to compensate for weak defending, having the top forwards on the ice more often will help.

Must do better than a big minute shutdown top 4 D from last season’s cup finalist. LOL

Who exactly is your suggestion?

Of someone who’s actually available?

Or more.

Said by someone who’s not paying attention.

Directly quoting that same post you quoted:



Chiarot doesn't have the track record to simply ignore how bad he's been this season. Thinking you can dunk on a guy for not staking value in a cinderella run when I have a perfectly justified position to do so seems like a very odd use of your time.

De Haan is my front runner strictly because his metrics suggest he would pair very well with Barrie, which frees the slot beside Nurse for Bouchard. Lindholm if the Ducks suddenly fall out of the race is my secondary option. Beyond those two, I'd look to Gavrikov before Chiarot strictly because his term offers more incentive to offer a first.

The odds are infinitesimally low but I'd be more than happy for the Oilers to blow their wad on Chychrun.

De Haan is definitely cheaper than Chiarot. Nowhere near as good though.

Savard played top four not first pair, Seth Jones was acquired because he didn't hack it on the top pairing the year and a half they tried. His average time on ice hovered just around 20 mins since, fairly normal second pair minutes. Also, Chiarot is the only D man playing half decent in on the Habs this year. Terrible year for the team but Chiarot is not the problem on their back end.

I put a lot of faith in analytics and the math suggests strongly against that opinion. Chiarot last year was like an average top-4 option and this year he's hardly above replacement level. De Haan's numbers are exceptional and have been for a while. Diverting to more of a traditional eye test, De Haan simply looks better this year. He may not be playing 24 minutes a night but he's maintained a very steady track record at around the 19 minute mark his entire career.

If he's cheaper, has much stronger underlying numbers, and appears to be *at worst* interchangeable with Chiarot, why pay the premium?



Regardless, six years of +20min per night holds a lot more intrinsic value than Chiarot being at that same level for two years.

He's got a 15% WAR: either that entire team is hot garbage, overachieved last year, or both. No matter how you slice it, his poor metrics this year and the team struggling as a whole further underscores why you should acquire last year's Habs with a grain of salt and maybe not pay a fortune for anything they're offering.

I don’t get this “track record” argument.

Great in his first year with the Habs. Great in the bubble. Great in the Canadian division. Great in the run to the cup finals last year. Hands down our best D so far this year.
Easily worth more than rental Savard.

To be accurate of the six years you reference he was only above 20 min average three times and he was playing on a team that played some of the best team D in the league. I am not saying Chiarot is better than Savard but they are about as closely comparable as you get. For the services of Chiarot a contender will pay close or similar to the 1st and 3rd Savard got last year. I do think he would be a big upgrade from Keith on the oilers second pair.

Also, The losses of Danault, Price, Weber and Edmundson plus the injuries are being felt this year. Half the team belong in the AHL not a surprise how the season is going.

Your track record point is a good one. Just checked out Chiarot's "rels", which compare him to his teammates.

CF% rel - negative every single year of his career
SF% rel - negative 6 of the last 7 seasons
GF% rel - negative last 3 seasons and 6 of 8
xGF% rel - negative 6 of last 7
SCF% rel - negative 7 of 8
HDCF% rel - negative 6 of 7

These are not good numbers, in fact they are quite bad. Worse, they're largely caused by poor defensive metrics - he allows more shots against than average of his teammates, he allows more goals against, more scoring chances and more high danger corsi. It isn't due to zone starts either, he generally gets about 50% offensive zone starts.

He had one good playoff run where the refs allowed him to hack and whack opponents at will, and Habs fans think he's suddenly a 1st pairing defenseman who is worth a whole ton. Genuinely he's a replacement level guy and has been his entire career.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=r&v=p&playerid=8475279

Actually, the results from the past 2 playoff runs are worse than his regular season results: http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=3&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=r&v=p&playerid=8475279.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=r&v=p&playerid=8475279

Not only habs fans. Unless certain media members were habs fans the last time i checked

I'm curious to know... when did a first round pick between 24-32 become a "fortune"? You make it sound like people on here are being unreasonable. There is precedent for what their offers/evaluations are. Needless to say the deadline D-market and player availability will dictate who's worth what. But it's not out of the realm of possibility that a proven playoff performer and big minute munching dman is worth a late 1st round pick. Whether the analytics disagree with it or not

The key, I believe, is that the Oilers probably don't want a big minute- munching LHD for the playoffs; like him or not, they have Nurse. What they do need is a strong defensive LHD, capable of playing through the heavy slogging when Nurse is not on the ice. Nurse's current injury shouldn't change that. And that kind of player should not cost a 1st round pick at this point in the season.

The best “strong defensive D” that you speak of who would conceivably be available, is also Chiarot.
Cost is a function of cap space. If you have LTIR cuz Nurse is out, or if we take salary back, or retain salary, then today vs. TDL is irrelevant, or, more likely, the cost is significantly higher.

That is your opinion. Chiarot's underlying stats reveal some issues with his play, and that is not opinion. Habs fans and some pundits may feel a 1st round draft pick is a reasonable ask for Chiarot, but the market will determine what the true price is. Holland has seen this before. It was maybe 14 months ago that many fans and pundits suggested he unload Puljujarvi for next to nothing. He chose a different path, and we can all see he made the correct decision.

Montreal's season is in serious trouble, so Chiarot's name is on the lips of those who like to speculate. Other teams may also be looking to make roster moves. Ken Holland will likely asses the market before making a decision. He could pay more for a better player, or less for a similar player, or he could pay whatever the market price is for Chiarot. Time will tell.

Precisely. However the closer to the deadline, the less likely these other teams will be willing to trade away assets if they are still in the playoff hunt. That is why with MTL's season in serious trouble already, it is more than conceivable that they will be only one of a few teams who have big strong (decently mobile) minute munching Dman with over 50games of playoff experience available to trade. Also, with the possibility of 50% retention, he could come in at just under 2mil on the cap. Often times, teams like to trade much earlier for their "deadline acquisitions" so that they can get them acclimatized and comfortable in the new teams' system. Analytics won't tell you this, but that IS worth a 1st round pick to most NHL GMs.

Now like you said, whether Kenny is willing to do that deal or not, remains to be seen.