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Market value of PK Subban at deadline

Créé par: NHLfan10506
Équipe: 2021-22 Devils du New Jersey
Date de création initiale: 9 nov. 2021
Publié: 9 nov. 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
(no hate spewing nonsense please....stick to hockey)
Transactions
1.
NJD
    I am only using Nashville here since there is where he last played. Would go to any team.
    NSH
    1. Subban, P.K. (4 500 000 $ retained)
    2.
    NJD
      AAV at 50%: $4.5 million
      Salary at 50%: $1 million
      NSH
      3.
      NJD
        Someone will say, "it will cost Devils" to move him. Please don't bother. Even since he arrived other teams have been inquiring about him.

        He is not worth $9m/year, but has plenty of value at $4.5m. He still wins puck-battles, moves the puck, has rocket from point, etc.
        NSH
        4.
        NJD
          I am thinking, at 50% retained, likely return would be 2nd or 3rd plus B-prospect (plus maybe a contract if salary needed to be moved).

          What do you think?
          NSH
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          TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
          2181 500 000 $67 226 402 $0 $3 650 000 $14 273 598 $
          Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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          2 250 000 $2 250 000 $
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          UFA - 1
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          C
          UFA - 6
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          2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
          C, AG, AD
          UFA - 2
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          925 000 $925 000 $
          AD, AG
          RFA - 4
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          894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance400 000 $$400K)
          AD, C
          RFA - 3
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          4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
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          UFA - 2
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          3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
          AG, AD
          UFA - 2
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          975 000 $975 000 $
          C
          RFA - 2
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          2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
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          UFA - 1
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          UFA - 1
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          Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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          3 166 667 $3 166 667 $
          DG
          UFA - 2
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          9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
          DD
          NMC
          UFA - 7
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          2 800 000 $2 800 000 $
          G
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          1 125 000 $1 125 000 $
          DG
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          G
          UFA - 2
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          863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance400 000 $$400K)
          DG/DD
          RFA - 2
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          750 000 $750 000 $
          DG
          UFA - 1
          Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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          725 000 $725 000 $
          AG, DG
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          2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
          AG
          UFA - 1
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          925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance2 850 000 $$3M)
          C
          UFA - 1
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          800 000 $800 000 $
          DD
          UFA - 1

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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 17
          #1
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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 17
          #2
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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 18
          #3
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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 19
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          If the acquiring team can get an Arizona or Buffalo to retain an additional 50% to bring his AAV down to $2.25M, and with the weird ways accrued cap space works at the deadline, then I think the Devils can easily get a 3rd and a B-prospect out of Subban.

          I don't know if a 2nd would be likely, as the acquiring team is likely parting with a 4th to garner the extra retention. It's still in the realm of possibilities though.
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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 20
          #5
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          I can 100% see someone wanting Subban if he's retained on, but at the same time, if you can get Subban as your 2RD behind Dougie Hamilton? Sure, neither are great defensively, but that's not bad. Subban's big issue is his cap hit. He's not a 9 million player, we all know that, but at 5-6 mil, that's a very nice player to have. Retain to 4.5.... I could see a 1st from a contender dealing with injuries, but it would be like straight up unless there's a bidding war. For example, I could see Carolina being interested if Pesce is still hurt.
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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 20
          #6
          v5 CBJ GM
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          question since you brought up salary...

          for example if the kraken had 1M of cap space could they acquire Subban half retained because of his salary or is the cap hit what matters
          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 24
          #7
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          Being in the last year of his contract, Subban is a true rental.
          That being said, there will be a borderline playoff bubble team or an established playoff team that has a need for an experienced D rental at the deadline (injuries, experience, leadership, etc).
          That being said, Subban should return a 1st and maybe prospect too or pick. Just look at the experienced D men returns over the last few trade deadlines. NJ may need to retain some to get better return depending on timing of the trade in the season.
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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 31
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          Quoting: BeterChiarelli
          If the acquiring team can get an Arizona or Buffalo to retain an additional 50% to bring his AAV down to $2.25M, and with the weird ways accrued cap space works at the deadline, then I think the Devils can easily get a 3rd and a B-prospect out of Subban.

          I don't know if a 2nd would be likely, as the acquiring team is likely parting with a 4th to garner the extra retention. It's still in the realm of possibilities though.


          I think that is in line with my thinking (and I meant to be cleared about 2nd round pick -or- 3rd round pick and B-prospect/role player).

          Quoting: Caniac2000
          I can 100% see someone wanting Subban if he's retained on, but at the same time, if you can get Subban as your 2RD behind Dougie Hamilton? Sure, neither are great defensively, but that's not bad. Subban's big issue is his cap hit. He's not a 9 million player, we all know that, but at 5-6 mil, that's a very nice player to have. Retain to 4.5.... I could see a 1st from a contender dealing with injuries, but it would be like straight up unless there's a bidding war. For example, I could see Carolina being interested if Pesce is still hurt.


          I would think with three 4th rounders in the hopper, NJD would happily pay the third team to retain 25% ($2.25 AAV, $500k cash). Especially if it returns a late 1st rounder.

          Quoting: Zuki9797
          question since you brought up salary...

          for example if the kraken had 1M of cap space could they acquire Subban half retained because of his salary or is the cap hit what matters


          Cap space can accrue over season if a team is under cap, so sometimes they can fit in bigger contracts. Squaring a $4.5m peg into a round $1m hole might be hard though. If a third team retains 25% (in three-way deal), it could get his cap hit down to $2.25m AAV per-annum basis. So acquiring team likely needs at least $2m cap space - or be able to move salary out.
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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 32
          #9
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          FDrKHzSXEAYe_Cj?format=png&name=small

          Should also be stated that of the 20 least valuable players in the NHL according to xGAR, Subban is not having a great year. IMO he does not have a lot of value anymore.

          Edit:
          Also, Hi Mr. Ritchie
          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 44
          #10
          Roster Architect
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          In terms of trade comparables, you'd probably be looking at a 1st, 3rd, and a AHL player at minimum. Especially for a contending team. That's what Philly gave up for Ristolainen and Subban's better and has a better reputation around the league too. I could easily see a team biting on that price
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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 45
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          Quoting: MatthewsFan
          FDrKHzSXEAYe_Cj?format=png&name=small

          Should also be stated that of the 20 least valuable players in the NHL according to xGAR, Subban is not having a great year. IMO he does not have a lot of value anymore.

          Edit:
          Also, Hi Mr. Ritchie


          Chychurn being that low is interesting
          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 45
          #12
          Banni
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          Quoting: NHLfan10506



          Quoting: NHLfan10506





          what about the which defenseman has the most slew foots and bikini pictures? wheres that stat?
          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 46
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          Quoting: BeterChiarelli
          If the acquiring team can get an Arizona or Buffalo to retain an additional 50% to bring his AAV down to $2.25M, and with the weird ways accrued cap space works at the deadline, then I think the Devils can easily get a 3rd and a B-prospect out of Subban.

          I don't know if a 2nd would be likely, as the acquiring team is likely parting with a 4th to garner the extra retention. It's still in the realm of possibilities though.


          Also, Cap hit is $4.5 at 50% off, but real dollars out of owners pocket is $2M. PK had his bonus paid $6M+ at the end of the summer. cap is cap I get it but physical dollars is my point
          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 47
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          Someone will probably overpay especially if a 3rd team retains. Maybe a late 2nd/high 3rd.
          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 48
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          Banni
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          hes not good anymore plus hes probably the most Narcissistic player in the league
          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 50
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          Quoting: MatthewsFan
          FDrKHzSXEAYe_Cj?format=png&name=small

          Should also be stated that of the 20 least valuable players in the NHL according to xGAR, Subban is not having a great year. IMO he does not have a lot of value anymore.

          Edit:
          Also, Hi Mr. Ritchie


          Chychrun, Dahlen, Leddy would also be 20 of the least valuable players in NHL...maybe I should be trading for them.
          (or maybe its a flawed stat that penalizes good players on bad teams)
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          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 53
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          Quoting: vr1995
          what about the which defenseman has the most slew foots and bikini pictures? wheres that stat?


          (a) Subban (b) Subban
          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 56
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          Quoting: Caniac2000
          Chychurn being that low is interesting


          ARI sucks but then you look at SPAR(Standings Points Above Replacement) which is proably a better metric for how a player effects the game and Ghost is playing awesome.

          FDskWMMVUAIobNS?format=png&name=small
          9 nov. 2021 à 12 h 58
          #19
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          Quoting: NHLfan10506
          Chychrun, Dahlen, Leddy would also be 20 of the least valuable players in NHL...maybe I should be trading for them.
          (or maybe its a flawed stat that penalizes good players on bad teams)


          Agreed, maybe the eye tests are better
          9 nov. 2021 à 13 h 2
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          Quoting: MatthewsFan
          ARI sucks but then you look at SPAR(Standings Points Above Replacement) which is proably a better metric for how a player effects the game and Ghost is playing awesome.

          FDskWMMVUAIobNS?format=png&name=small


          SPAR is too WAR reliant for me to put any faith in it. I much prefer xGAR and GAR+/-
          9 nov. 2021 à 13 h 10
          #21
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          Quoting: MatthewsFan
          Agreed, maybe the eye tests are better


          Its a useful metric, but at 1/8 through season, its a small sample size.

          Also, here are the D-men that have been traded for 1sts recently and the xGAR from most recent seasons...

          Seth Jones: -5.7
          OEL: -4.7
          Risto: -10.3
          Savard: -1.6
          Skjei: -3.1
          Trouba: -1.4
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          9 nov. 2021 à 13 h 11
          #22
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          Quoting: Caniac2000
          SPAR is too WAR reliant for me to put any faith in it. I much prefer xGAR and GAR+/-


          Agreed, WAR leaves you to do additional math to figure out what that increase in wins means in the standings. With SPAR it let’s figure out how many standings points a team full of replacement players would generate. Using a SPAR model, a team can project their finish in the standings by starting from a baseline of say (50) points and adding the value of each player on their roster until they arrive at a total. If that number lands at (80), they should be prepared to try to improve their roster if they hope to make the playoffs. If that number lands at say 98, they should feel good about their playoff chances and look to add at the margins. Can also do some fun stuff with SPAR, how often good players are the difference between their teams making and missing the playoffs.

          Math is fun
          9 nov. 2021 à 13 h 13
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          Quoting: MatthewsFan
          Agreed, WAR leaves you to do additional math to figure out what that increase in wins means in the standings. With SPAR it let’s figure out how many standings points a team full of replacement players would generate. Using a SPAR model, a team can project their finish in the standings by starting from a baseline of say (50) points and adding the value of each player on their roster until they arrive at a total. If that number lands at (80), they should be prepared to try to improve their roster if they hope to make the playoffs. If that number lands at say 98, they should feel good about their playoff chances and look to add at the margins. Can also do some fun stuff with SPAR, how often good players are the difference between their teams making and missing the playoffs.

          Math is fun


          See, this is why I spend my life on hockey websites doing math rather than going outside and trying to talk to people, my life feels justified right now
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          9 nov. 2021 à 13 h 15
          #24
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          Quoting: NHLfan10506
          Its a useful metric, but at 1/8 through season, its a small sample size.

          Also, here are the D-men that have been traded for 1sts recently and the xGAR from most recent seasons...

          Seth Jones: -5.7
          OEL: -4.7
          Risto: -10.3
          Savard: -1.6
          Skjei: -3.1
          Trouba: -1.4


          Totally fair, not hating on any of this. I think the best case is a 3rd and a AHL level prospect, even with retention which will most likely be needed if a contending team wants him.
          9 nov. 2021 à 13 h 16
          #25
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          Quoting: Caniac2000
          See, this is why I spend my life on hockey websites doing math rather than going outside and trying to talk to people, my life feels justified right now


          LMFAO, I just like to talk hockey, everything about it 🤷‍♂️
           
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