Broke the reply into two parts because Radu brought up some points that I wanted to stand out more.
Quoting: Radu47
I like the methodology but the returns trouble me
If Gavrikov was RFA ending then maybe a 1st
But why not use the 1st to package for a top D
Suggesting Gavrikov > Barrie is really bizarre
Especially given the use of analytical models here
The list of "top d" that can be had this deadline is currently a name and a half long with Ekholm having just extended and next year's crop isn't much better either as I suspect names like Orlov and Sergachev aren't going to be moving in the near future. Thus it became a matter of just acquiring a solid defender - recognize that Keith probably isn't retiring next year and Samorukov needs to be NHL bound next season - with term in order to both improve the roster and justify the cost. I don't think Leddy or Giordano are names that any team should be looking to send a first for. There's a current market scarcity in quality defenders, results of the best men having already signed to max-term deals.
Gavrikov plays a lot like a left-handed Larsson and it's no secret that such a skillset is something this team needs. The price is a bit high but I find it more constructive to suss out value from other teams by exceeding that initial expectation. The only reason I have him (and Pysyk) over Barrie is based on the math that JFresh's model does to calculate WAR. Reality is Tippett would never split Keith-Ceci and the Oilers would run a Gavrikov-Barrie pairing. Barrie's skillset doesn't lend to playoff hockey in the slightest and I've been less than impressed with his results dating back to last season.
Quoting: Radu47
Barrie is the 29th highest scoring D in NHL history (ahead of Gonchar, Rafalski, etc.) how on earth could he possibly warrant being scratched on this D core
Only 1/2 of his career beside elite forwards
Many of the 28 ahead of him had that throughout
Because Barrie
cannot play defense: with penalty rates evaporating over the course of the postseason, those scoring rates drop substantially.
The Oilers do not have the proper roster construction in order to gain positive value out of Barrie beyond the regular season: if Keith could have been replaced by a genuinely defensively-capable partner then having Barrie on the playoff roster makes sense. Managing shots against becomes exponentially more important in the playoffs given the smaller sample size the games leave you to work with: you can't rely on shot metrics from the regular season to always translate into those isolated seven-game series. The only thing you can truly control in that moment is by minimizing the CF% of the team you're matched up against.
I like the idea of a Samorukov-Barrie pairing next season and oh how wonderfully a Klefbom-Barrie pairing could have been: such pairings should be able to manipulate CF% in the manner you'd expect offensively-natured defenders to do so (overwhelmingly in their favour) because of how the two pieces mesh together. We don't have one of those on this roster (maybe he works with Gavrikov, Jack's math suggested otherwise). This is why you saw me ask Avalanche and Leafs fans only days ago if he'd work as a forward: there isn't a good spot on that blueline for him until we can get Keith off the roster. Otherwise the old man is playing too high up the depth chart or the bottom pair is at substantial risk of being exposed.
Quoting: Radu47
The only possible way to sell high on a floundering player is if you somehow knew their career was entirely downhill from here on... so... 🤨
Obv not the case here so it's perplexing to see that
Also with Strome floundering in ways too (neither are really but anyhow) and he and Yams having almost the exact same career points per game so far...
Why do the Oilers add a quality prospect there
Benson is an elite AHL scorer and still has potential, with Yams more cost controlled too it's very arguable he's the better asset for CHI trying* to contend
*emphasis on trying
Lol stan bowman
I'm suspect of Kailer's ceiling and I believe that he's probably peaking as a decent third-line option. Less DeBrincat more Gerbe? The Hyman acquisition and lack of any effective long-term spot for Kassian (early results promising however) leave me looking at Yamamoto as a piece that if Tippett isn't going to support with proper roster utilization, should be moved on from. Bourgault is pushing very hard from the QMJHL (I'm starting to think his AHL audition will run short: games this summer, maybe to start next season) and Lavoie could still emerge as an NHL option as early as the New Year.
Given the Oilers cap situation next year - ignoring for a second I used him to acquire a more expensive player - I don't think Yamamoto is long for this roster. My gut feeling from how his negotiations went this summer to how Tippett has been benching him or failing to adapt the roster to get the most value out of Kailer lads me to think that Holland will trade him for a roster piece of need. I'm uncertain as to where however, as it's contingent on when the trade happens and how other pieces of the roster manage the rest of the year. If Skinner falters and the Oilers actually aren't rumoured to have a Khudobin trade set, then I can see a real deal for Driedger (auxiliary pieces may vary). If Keith really struggles this year or gets into injury trouble, then I would be wholly unsurprised to see Yamamoto traded as part of a package for a quality LHD. If the trade happens before or on the deadline, then I think something in this neighbourhood to give Edmonton overwhelming forward depth is likely.
I don't think Benson should qualify as a prosect anymore. A fair shake would be to see what he does on the current roster but I think it's a moot point at this point. I have him with the likes of Ho-Sang or Jeremu Bracco. Greatness at the AHL level isn't always going to translate, and it's yet to do so for Tyler. I think he has more value as a trade piece than a roster player the organizatio has to jump through hoops with in order to avoid losing him to waivers.