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Dom Luszczysyns standings projection

Créé par: Byrr
Équipe: 2021-22 Équipe personnalisée
Date de création initiale: 7 oct. 2021
Publié: 7 oct. 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Projection for standings in the NHL from Dom. Millions in salary is position league wide.
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
3281 500 000 $528 000 000 $0 $0 $-446 500 000 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Maple Leafs, Toronto
2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
Islanders, New York
7 000 000 $7 000 000 $
Lightning, Tampa Bay
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
Penguins, Pittsburgh
11 000 000 $11 000 000 $
Bruins, Boston
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
Rangers, New York
12 000 000 $12 000 000 $
Panthers, Florida
8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
Hurricanes, Carolina
13 000 000 $13 000 000 $
Canadiens, Montreal
19 000 000 $19 000 000 $
Capitals, Washington
14 000 000 $14 000 000 $
Red Wings, Detroit
27 000 000 $27 000 000 $
Devils, New Jersey
20 000 000 $20 000 000 $
Senators, Ottawa
29 000 000 $29 000 000 $
Flyers, Philly
22 000 000 $22 000 000 $
Sabres, Buffalo
32 000 000 $32 000 000 $
Blue Jackets, Columbus
28 000 000 $28 000 000 $
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Knights, Vegas
4 000 000 $4 000 000 $
Avalanche, Colorado
1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
Oilers, Edmonton
6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
Wild, Minnesota
9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
Kraken, Seattle
10 000 000 $10 000 000 $
Jets, Winnipeg
15 000 000 $15 000 000 $
Flames, Calgary
18 000 000 $18 000 000 $
Stars, Dallas
16 000 000 $16 000 000 $
Canucks, Vancouver
23 000 000 $23 000 000 $
Blues, St Louis
17 000 000 $17 000 000 $
Sharks, San Jose
25 000 000 $25 000 000 $
Blackhawks, Chicago
21 000 000 $21 000 000 $
Kings, LA
26 000 000 $26 000 000 $
Predators, Nashville
24 000 000 $24 000 000 $
Ducks, Anaheim
30 000 000 $30 000 000 $
Coyotes, Arizona
31 000 000 $31 000 000 $

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7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 1
#1
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So if Dom Luszcyzyzyzcyzcycyscysyycyzyzsysyzsyzsysyzsysn's standings are 100% accurate:

A1. Toronto
A2. Tampa
A3. Boston
M1. NY Isles
M2. Pittsburgh
M3. NY Rangers
W1. Florida
W2. Carolina

Toronto v. Carolina, NY Isles v. Florida, Tampa v. Boston, Pittsburgh v. NY Rangers

P1. Vegas
P2. Edmonton
P3. Seattle
C1. Colorado
C2. Minnesota
C3. Winnipeg
W1. Dallas
W2. St Louis

Colorado v. St Louis, Vegas v. Dallas, Edmonton v. Seattle, Minnesota v. Winnipeg
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7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 9
#2
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Jeez is that Atlantic division stacked. Seems crazy to think of an Ovi-less post season. Nothing I disagree of too crazily other than thinking Vancouver keeps being underrated in these projections.

Projected playoff match-ups kind of look like a dud though unless there are some rivalries I'm unaware of.
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7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 31
#3
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Doms model sucks. He has a terrible success rate and just always overrates the leafs. Hes a fan that got a job with the athletic. Idk y people think his ratings are good when hes constantly wrong.
7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 35
#4
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Doms model sucks. He has a terrible success rate and just always overrates the leafs. Hes a fan that got a job with the athletic. Idk y people think his ratings are good when hes constantly wrong.


Dom's models actually have a better success rate than most. The mistake you are making is thinking its a prediction rather than a projection. If everyone played to their potential and luck wasn't involved, this is what should happen....but thats not the NHL. Most models have swings averaging around 8 or 9 points, making up to 18 point swings possible between two teams. This is whats most likely to happen but just because something is most likely doesn't mean it will happen, especially in the NHL.
7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 43
#5
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Doms model sucks. He has a terrible success rate and just always overrates the leafs. Hes a fan that got a job with the athletic. Idk y people think his ratings are good when hes constantly wrong.


For models results from last season:

E12lm0WXsAM_Erq?format=png&name=small

Your complaint about overrating the Leafs is specifically even more curious. Last year his model predicted them as finishing with 72 points, they finished with 77. I guess what I'm trying to say is, this is a you thing, not a problem with Dom or his model.
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7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 49
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Quoting: Byrr
Dom's models actually have a better success rate than most. The mistake you are making is thinking its a prediction rather than a projection. If everyone played to their potential and luck wasn't involved, this is what should happen....but thats not the NHL. Most models have swings averaging around 8 or 9 points, making up to 18 point swings possible between two teams. This is whats most likely to happen but just because something is most likely doesn't mean it will happen, especially in the NHL.


You obviously didnt see his record from the playoffs.
7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 51
#7
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
You obviously didnt see his record from the playoffs.


Is this a playoff projection?
7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 52
#8
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Quoting: Byrr
For models results from last season:

E12lm0WXsAM_Erq?format=png&name=small

Your complaint about overrating the Leafs is specifically even more curious. Last year his model predicted them as finishing with 72 points, they finished with 77. I guess what I'm trying to say is, this is a you thing, not a problem with Dom or his model.


Again go look at his record from last playoffs. And just bc he underrated them once doesnt mean that he doesnt overrate them. I havent seen anyone else who has TOR in the top 2. If thats not overrating the leafs then idk what is.
7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 52
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Quoting: Byrr
Is this a playoff projection?


Whats your point?
7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 53
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Quoting: Byrr
For models results from last season:

E12lm0WXsAM_Erq?format=png&name=small

Your complaint about overrating the Leafs is specifically even more curious. Last year his model predicted them as finishing with 72 points, they finished with 77. I guess what I'm trying to say is, this is a you thing, not a problem with Dom or his model.


And just bc other models are worse doesnt mean that his is good. It just means that its better than the others.
7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 56
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Again go look at his record from last playoffs. And just bc he underrated them once doesnt mean that he doesnt overrate them. I havent seen anyone else who has TOR in the top 2. If thats not overrating the leafs then idk what is.


Hockeyviz actually had them winning the President's Trophy.
7 oct. 2021 à 13 h 58
#12
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Whats your point?


The point is that hockey in the playoffs is a different game than the one played during the regular season. More physical play, more penalties let go, etc. You are complaining about a model projecting something other than what you are having a problem with. A model that was the most successful of them all last season while you are trying to say it was very inaccurate all while claiming he has a bias that was absent from his work last season. Like I said above, this seems more than a you problem than a problem with Dom or his model.
7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 0
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
And just bc other models are worse doesnt mean that his is good. It just means that its better than the others.


you are so close to understanding how models actually work.
7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 2
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Quoting: Byrr
The point is that hockey in the playoffs is a different game than the one played during the regular season. More physical play, more penalties let go, etc. You are complaining about a model projecting something other than what you are having a problem with. A model that was the most successful of them all last season while you are trying to say it was very inaccurate all while claiming he has a bias that was absent from his work last season. Like I said above, this seems more than a you problem than a problem with Dom or his model.


so many people think that these models are "bad" because they arnt perfect it's amazing. Like literally every single major sports betting guy is never right even 80% of the time because sports are wild an can hinge on a single play, injury or a hot goalie/whatever and yet people like that guy always whine and flail about because a team they dont like is higher than a team they do
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7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 5
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Here is a far better model: Evolving Wild (I hope)

(I just go with whoever has the Devils the highest...in this case, EW had them #2 in Metro)
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7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 7
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Here is a far better model: Evolving Wild (I hope)

(I just go with whoever has the Devils the highest...in this case, EW had them #2 in Metro)


I posted the Hockeyviz one as well:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2824353
7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 9
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
you are so close to understanding how models actually work.


Quoting: Byrr
The point is that hockey in the playoffs is a different game than the one played during the regular season. More physical play, more penalties let go, etc. You are complaining about a model projecting something other than what you are having a problem with. A model that was the most successful of them all last season while you are trying to say it was very inaccurate all while claiming he has a bias that was absent from his work last season. Like I said above, this seems more than a you problem than a problem with Dom or his model.


Np. We'll see if at the end of the season you still believe in doms failed model (of course you will bc he'll continue to overrate the leafs). But of course then like all leafs fans youll deny ever saying anything like this bc you guys have no accountability. Anyway i hope you have fun with another 1st round exit.
7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 11
#18
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Np. We'll see if at the end of the season you still believe in doms failed model (of course you will bc he'll continue to overrate the leafs). But of course then like all leafs fans youll deny ever saying anything like this bc you guys have no accountability. Anyway i hope you have fun with another 1st round exit.


hope you learn what a statistical model is some day
7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 12
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Np. We'll see if at the end of the season you still believe in doms failed model (of course you will bc he'll continue to overrate the leafs). But of course then like all leafs fans youll deny ever saying anything like this bc you guys have no accountability. Anyway i hope you have fun with another 1st round exit.


You have an odd obsession with the Leafs.
7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 13
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Np. We'll see if at the end of the season you still believe in doms failed model (of course you will bc he'll continue to overrate the leafs). But of course then like all leafs fans youll deny ever saying anything like this bc you guys have no accountability. Anyway i hope you have fun with another 1st round exit.


My goodness, you're so mad about this. Dude, just because you dont understand statistical models and dont like the leafs doesnt mean that the information is incorrect.
I also love the part where you dont blink for a second that he has the islanders 1st in their division, crazy eh?
7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 15
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Quoting: Byrr
You have an odd obsession with the Leafs.


still mad about tavares
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7 oct. 2021 à 14 h 18
#22
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
still mad about tavares


Its funny how much Islanders fan's hate the Leafs because of Tavares while Leafs fans barely know they exist.
7 oct. 2021 à 15 h 41
#23
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Quoting: Islesforthecup
Doms model sucks. He has a terrible success rate and just always overrates the leafs. Hes a fan that got a job with the athletic. Idk y people think his ratings are good when hes constantly wrong.


Dom's model has been one of the most accurate in past seasons
7 oct. 2021 à 15 h 44
#24
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I think the Avs get overrated a bit by these models. On offense I think the Avs got worse from last season, defense stayed about the same (depends on how Byram plays), and in goal I think at best Kuemper will be as good as Grubauer was last year, and at worst I think goaltending could be a real issue with injuries. I still think they will be 1st in the Central but I dont know about 1st in the league
 
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