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Los Angeles Kings signed Cal Petersen (3 Years / $5,000,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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22 sep à 16 h 52
#26
Rejoint: aoû 2017
Messages: 6,189
Mentions "j'aime": 3,710
Quoting: drewjenkins
.



Unfortunately my main man Calley-P ended up in the wrong category ....



GOOD VALUE SIGNINGS:

030 games | 0.928 SV% | 2.01 GAA | $3,000,000 x 2 year deal | 25 years old | Alex Nedeljkovic
038 games | 0.929 SV% | 2.09 GAA | $3,500,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Chris Driedger
050 games | 0.928 SV% | 2.30 GAA | $1,600,000 x 2 year deal | 27 years old | Jack Campbell
275 games | 0.912 SV% | 2.59 GAA | $3,800,000 x 3 year deal | 28 years old | Pete Mrazek
155 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.50 GAA | $5,000,000 x 4 year deal | 26 years old | Juuse Saros
050 games | 0.910 SV% | 2.79 GAA | $2,200,000 x 2 year deal | 25 years old | Aidan Hill


POOR VALUE SIGNINGS:

214 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.34 GAA | $5,900,000 x 6 year deal | 28 years old | Philip Grubauer
045 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.61 GAA | $2,000,000 x 1 year deal | 24 years old | Ilya Samsonov
117 games | 0.912 SV% | 2.78 GAA | $5,000,000 x 4 year deal | 27 years old | Linus Ullmark
082 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.83 GAA | $2,300,000 x 2 year deal | 27 years old | Laur Brossoit
022 games | 0.918 SV% | 2.17 GAA | $4,000,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Ilya Sorokin
101 games | 0.905 SV% | 2.88 GAA | $3,900,000 x 3 year deal | 23 years old | Carter Hart


DIVORCE SETTLEMENTS:

061 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.94 GAA | $5,000,000 x 5 year deal | 25 years old | Thatcher Demko
054 games | 0.916 SV% | 2.79 GAA | $5,000,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Calvin Petersen
098 games | 0.916 SV% | 2.42 GAA | $6,000,000 x 6 year deal | 27 years old | Jordy Binington
047 games | 0.921 SV% | 2.59 GAA | $5,700,000 x 4 year deal | 25 years old | Igor Shesterkin
061 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.54 GAA | $5,400,000 x 5 year deal | 27 years old | Elvis Merzlikins



**Career stats are from the signing date


.


Now do GSAx
22 sep à 16 h 53
#27
Rejoint: mar 2017
Messages: 874
Mentions "j'aime": 507
Quoting: ColonelX
People had no problem throwing 9 million a year to Kaprizov but complain that Petersen's being unproven at the NHL level?


Small sample sizes for goalies are a lot more problematic than small sample sizes for players.

Extreme Example:

- A minor league goalie could play one game and look like Dominik Hasek.
- A minor league player is not physically capable of looking like McDavid.

Players skill-levels are more clearly visible and repeatable than goalie skills.

They same thing applies to tennis and golf:

- I could beat Tiger Woods in one round of golf if I played my best (68) and he played is absolute worst.
- I would get destroyed by Roger Federer 1,000 times in row (regardless of how good or bad we played).

Different skill sets = Different performance variance.
Trickster et Brian2016 a aimé ceci.
22 sep à 17 h 03
#28
Go Habs Go
Rejoint: mar 2017
Messages: 7,677
Mentions "j'aime": 1,844
Quoting: Roysboy72
Did you have to literally half of the people in this thread to say that?


... and for something seemingly arbitrary?
justaBoss a aimé ceci.
22 sep à 17 h 08
#29
v5 CBJ GM
Rejoint: oct 2020
Messages: 5,446
Mentions "j'aime": 4,898
Good deal, Petersen is a solid starter and should help LA contend
OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.
22 sep à 18 h 08
#30
Masksaredumb
Rejoint: oct 2020
Messages: 2,242
Mentions "j'aime": 655
Terrible overpayment imo.
PrisonBull a aimé ceci.
22 sep à 19 h 11
#31
Rejoint: mai 2015
Messages: 7,001
Mentions "j'aime": 2,502
Quoting: drewjenkins
.



Unfortunately my main man Calley-P ended up in the wrong category ....



GOOD VALUE SIGNINGS:

030 games | 0.928 SV% | 2.01 GAA | $3,000,000 x 2 year deal | 25 years old | Alex Nedeljkovic
038 games | 0.929 SV% | 2.09 GAA | $3,500,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Chris Driedger
050 games | 0.928 SV% | 2.30 GAA | $1,600,000 x 2 year deal | 27 years old | Jack Campbell
275 games | 0.912 SV% | 2.59 GAA | $3,800,000 x 3 year deal | 28 years old | Pete Mrazek
155 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.50 GAA | $5,000,000 x 4 year deal | 26 years old | Juuse Saros
050 games | 0.910 SV% | 2.79 GAA | $2,200,000 x 2 year deal | 25 years old | Aidan Hill


POOR VALUE SIGNINGS:

214 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.34 GAA | $5,900,000 x 6 year deal | 28 years old | Philip Grubauer
045 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.61 GAA | $2,000,000 x 1 year deal | 24 years old | Ilya Samsonov
117 games | 0.912 SV% | 2.78 GAA | $5,000,000 x 4 year deal | 27 years old | Linus Ullmark
082 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.83 GAA | $2,300,000 x 2 year deal | 27 years old | Laur Brossoit
022 games | 0.918 SV% | 2.17 GAA | $4,000,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Ilya Sorokin
101 games | 0.905 SV% | 2.88 GAA | $3,900,000 x 3 year deal | 23 years old | Carter Hart


DIVORCE SETTLEMENTS:

061 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.94 GAA | $5,000,000 x 5 year deal | 25 years old | Thatcher Demko
054 games | 0.916 SV% | 2.79 GAA | $5,000,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Calvin Petersen
098 games | 0.916 SV% | 2.42 GAA | $6,000,000 x 6 year deal | 27 years old | Jordy Binington
047 games | 0.921 SV% | 2.59 GAA | $5,700,000 x 4 year deal | 25 years old | Igor Shesterkin
061 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.54 GAA | $5,400,000 x 5 year deal | 27 years old | Elvis Merzlikins



**Career stats are from the signing date


.


I don't understand why Saaros, Grubauer, and Merzilkins are in three different categories when they're all 0.920 sv% on the dot and signed for 5 mil, 5 mil, and 5.9 mil
22 sep à 20 h 34
#32
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 11,760
Mentions "j'aime": 4,633
$5m + NTC
Good agent, I guess
22 sep à 21 h 33
#33
Disappointed in you
Rejoint: oct 2017
Messages: 21,589
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Bit too much for a goalie still quite unproven.
22 sep à 23 h 51
#34
Rejoint: mar 2017
Messages: 874
Mentions "j'aime": 507
Quoting: BCAPP
I don't understand why Saaros, Grubauer, and Merzilkins are in three different categories when they're all 0.920 sv% on the dot and signed for 5 mil, 5 mil, and 5.9 mil


Saaros signed for $900,000 less than Grubauer, for 2 years less than Grubauer, and is 2 years younger than Grubauer.

So Saaros expires around 30 while Grubauer expires around 34. It's not bad but it's enough to differentiate the two.

Merzlikins has played 61 NHL games. That's a lot of money and term for a very small sample size.

His whole group is comparable. They all look promising, but somehow got long and expensive contracts with short resumes.
23 sep à 2 h 53
#35
Rejoint: mai 2015
Messages: 7,001
Mentions "j'aime": 2,502
Quoting: drewjenkins
Saaros signed for $900,000 less than Grubauer, for 2 years less than Grubauer, and is 2 years younger than Grubauer.

So Saaros expires around 30 while Grubauer expires around 34. It's not bad but it's enough to differentiate the two.

Merzlikins has played 61 NHL games. That's a lot of money and term for a very small sample size.

His whole group is comparable. They all look promising, but somehow got long and expensive contracts with short resumes.


Saaros would likely argue he's happy his contract is shorter than grubauer as it means he gets anothrr contract in his 20s
23 sep à 3 h 59
#36
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 3,576
Mentions "j'aime": 1,888
I can't stand short term, big money contracts in most cases, but I make an exception when Goalies are involved. We've seen so many long term deals go bad after 4-5 years (some much sooner) that this deal makes tons of sense for the Kings. Solid B+ contract.
23 sep à 4 h 03
#37
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 3,576
Mentions "j'aime": 1,888
Quoting: drewjenkins
Small sample sizes for goalies are a lot more problematic than small sample sizes for players.

Extreme Example:

- A minor league goalie could play one game and look like Dominik Hasek.
- A minor league player is not physically capable of looking like McDavid.

Players skill-levels are more clearly visible and repeatable than goalie skills.

They same thing applies to tennis and golf:

- I could beat Tiger Woods in one round of golf if I played my best (68) and he played is absolute worst.
- I would get destroyed by Roger Federer 1,000 times in row (regardless of how good or bad we played).

Different skill sets = Different performance variance.


I agree with everything you said except about bearing Tiger when you play the round of your life and he plays terrible. Tiger, at least in his prime, had a competitive edge to the point where he would intimidate you and grind out a W. Remember the 2008 US Open against Rocco? But, I see your point as it relates to hockey.
drewjenkins a aimé ceci.
23 sep à 9 h 45
#38
Rejoint: jui 2021
Messages: 67
Mentions "j'aime": 25
Wow! I didn't realize he was that good. At least they didn't give him a long term.
24 sep à 7 h 31
#39
Rejoint: mar 2017
Messages: 874
Mentions "j'aime": 507
Modifié 24 sep à 7 h 36
Quoting: Brian2016
I agree with everything you said except about bearing Tiger when you play the round of your life and he plays terrible. Tiger, at least in his prime, had a competitive edge to the point where he would intimidate you and grind out a W. Remember the 2008 US Open against Rocco? But, I see your point as it relates to hockey.


Yeah I could never beat prime Tiger in 4 day tournament (or anyone else on the PGA tour).
But if it's just one round it's definitely possible (extremely unlikely though).
Maybe once in 10,000 tries when I was close to scratch.
Prime Tiger was grinding out wins with 1-2 bad rounds.
Brian2016 a aimé ceci.
24 sep à 7 h 51
#40
Rejoint: mar 2017
Messages: 874
Mentions "j'aime": 507
Quoting: BCAPP
Saaros would likely argue he's happy his contract is shorter than grubauer as it means he gets anothrr contract in his 20s


He turned 26 in April so he'll be 30 when he becomes a UFA.

26 seems to be the exact age when contract negotiations shift.

Under 26 = Teams want more term (and have to pay more for it).
Over 26 = Players want more term (and have to sacrifice for it).
Age 26 = Debatable

I doubt he would have rejected another 4 years (30-34) at $5,000,000.

But you might be right too.
BCAPP et OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.
24 sep à 9 h 13
#41
Rejoint: mai 2015
Messages: 7,001
Mentions "j'aime": 2,502
Quoting: drewjenkins
He turned 26 in April so he'll be 30 when he becomes a UFA.

26 seems to be the exact age when contract negotiations shift.

Under 26 = Teams want more term (and have to pay more for it).
Over 26 = Players want more term (and have to sacrifice for it).
Age 26 = Debatable

I doubt he would have rejected another 4 years (30-34) at $5,000,000.

But you might be right too.


I think this summer specifically there has been a decent chunk of players who want to become a free agent in about 3-4 years hoping the cap is going back up, if they can be young enough

There was a week in mid August or so where like 5 rfas at about 24-26 year of age all took less than I expected to get 3-4 year terms to become a Ufa in their 20s (or as you point out I misread a bit and right at 30 for the goalie above).

It was Reinhart, Vrana and I actually can't remember the other 2-3
drewjenkins a aimé ceci.
27 sep à 5 h 36
#42
Rejoint: jun 2019
Messages: 6
Mentions "j'aime": 2
as mayority i thing its too much. As Kings fan, hope he will prove, that he is worth that amount of money. But i have feeling, that Kings cant do same thing like for example Boston or Colorado, to convice players sighn for little bit less money to help team be more competitive.
1 oct à 19 h 52
#43
Canucks...
Rejoint: sep 2021
Messages: 249
Mentions "j'aime": 43
I get that he's a UFA at the end of his current contract, but I can't help but feel maybe Rob Blake panicked a little bit on this one. This guy still has a lot to prove and if he doesn't pan out, you are probably better off letting him walk, let alone signing another league-minimum extension as oppose to this
 
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