What can this roster do?!
Semi finals +

I think we will make it to the second round, unless Vegas is horrible in the playoffs, then semi finals. Don’t forget that we have as good of a chance of beating Vegas as they have beating us in the playoffs. It is a guessing game then… also, our team is pretty good and so is theres. I think it will depend on the goalies. If Smith can play like he did in the playoffs last season, or pretty well, and if Lehner can play well in the playoffs. Don’t forget, it was Fleury that played in the playoffs last season, not Lehner…. So we will have to see if he can stay healthy, and play well in the playoffs.

Forward group is truly incredible, but defense is probably bottom three in the league and we're hanging a whole lot on a a 39 year goalie that is only one shortened, interdivisional play limited season removed from three consecutive not good years, and another one that did not play a single game last year (and also Koskinen).

Despite that, they're probably the second or third best team in the pacific lol. Second round is plausible to me. Maybe more if the goaltending and Cody Ceci repeats its performance from last year but that's pretty optimistic to expect. And if they regress hard, and Keith continues to decline...well, let's hope McDavid and Draisaitl can help them win every game 7-6, because otherwise they're missing the playoffs.

This team for sure wont get past round 1. They are built for the complete opposite of playoff hockey. Their D is bottom 2 in the league and the G is bottom 5. Thats not going to win playoff games in the nhl.

I agree the D could go south quick if Ceci and Keith don't show well. But the G had the 8th best sv% in the league last season. Of course, Smith is even older, and we know Koski is never clutch when relied on, so not a tandem made for a deep run - should seek a goalie at the deadline and dump Koski if possible. But it is absolutely not bottom 5 goaltending. Between the reg season positives and the playoff negatives, it's simply average.

So before this shortened only have to play canadian teams season, mike smith has had 2 below average seasons. Well below average seasons. If i had to bet, this year we get the
18-19, 19-20 mike smith as opposed to the 20-21 mike smith.
As for koskinen at age 32 hes played 3 real seasons in the league. He played 4 games at age 22 (2010-11) and then didnt play in the nhl again until 2018-19 at age 30. That doesnt inspire much confidence, especially considering last year he put up a sub .900 sv% and over 3.00 gaa. Thats not even quality backup material. And its not like the rest of the team is going to help a lot. As for bottom 5 lets go through the teams.

Are they better than
ANA - NO
ARI - YES
BOS - NO
BUF - YES
CGY - NO
CAR - NO
CHI - NO
COL - NO
CBJ - NO
DAL - NO
DET - NO
FLA - NO (i think knight has a good season based on his few games last year but a big unknown here)
LAK - NO
MIN - NO
MTL - NO
NSH - NO
NJD - NO
NYI - NO
NYR - NO
OTT - YES
PHI - NO
PIT - NO
SJS - YES
SEA - NO
STL - NO
TBL - NO
TOR - NO
VAN - NO
VGK - NO
WSH - NO
WPG - NO

in this list they happen to be 5th worst but in the best case scenario theyre like 7/8th worst.

So you made a list based upon your gut opinion. Which is fine, if you want to go with it, but that's all it is. I'll stick to the numbers - which say in the last 12 months, Oil goaltending stopped pucks better than the majority of other teams' goalies.

In the last 12 months which is not repeatable. Mike smith played well over his head plus hes now a year older. You are entitled to your opinion, but i think youll be in for a harsh dose of reality when smith goes back to his pre 20-21 form.

Fair enough that any given year can be different for goalies. Just don't see solid evidence, rather than anecdotal predictions, for why the tandem automatically goes from top 10 at stopping pucks to nearly last inherently. I'd rather bet on the stats.

This tandem was not top 10 at stopping pucks, i think thats your issue. Also i dont know why you cant see how mike smith wont play out of his mind this year like he did last.
Oilers goaltending
.912 sv% in 20-21 and a 2.63 gaa.
Those are around league average in gaa and sv%.
Now lets do individual stats
Mikko koskinen
Career - .907 sv% 2.97 gaa
EDM - .908 sv% 2.92 gaa
20-21 - .899 sv% 3.17 gaa
Mike smith
Career - .912 sv% 2.69 gaa
EDM - .912 sv% 2.65 gaa
20-21 .923 sv% 2.31 gaa

Smith is a little below average for a starter/tandem and koskinen is an ok backup. Now put them behind a defense like edmontons and wonder why i say they wont be good. Its also not like they play a defensive system.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2021.html. Unless something is being plugged in wrong here, they were tied for 7th in league sv%, and 11th for gaa. So yeah, averaged out, top 10. Edmonton's D was already iffy last year when they did that, and still is. The forwards are better defensively though with Hyman, Foegele and Ryan. So other than your gut telling you the Oil goalies will be bottom of the barrel, I just can't accept it on the actual stats.

Ive looked at the stats and they are not 7th in sv% and 11th in gaa. Idk what to tell you at this point but thats simply not the case. Also you still havent once addressed the fact that mike smith was in way over his head last year.

Hmm, better take it up with hockey-reference.com. Because those are their numbers, if you care to look.

Also if he was in over his head, why did he perform well?

I guess you misunderstood what i was trying to say, he played well above what his talent level is.