If you look at this website's cap numbers for next year Minnesota has $18M committed to 6 forwards. Throw in Kaprizov at $9M and you are up to $27M. If they pay Greenway $3M, Fiala $6M and Rask $4.5M (not major raises) then they are up to $40.5M for 10 forwards. Assume they bring in Rossi ($880K) and Boldy ($890K) as cheap young replacements and you are up to $42.27M for 12 forwards (no 13th forward which teams usually like).
Then you look at Defence for next year: $15.825M without Dumba in the mix (or $21.825M with him in there). This is for 3 (or 4) Defencemen only. Let's say you fill the other 3 slots at $750K (league minimum) X 3 and that is $18.075M (or $24.075 with Dumba). Goligoski's $5M was never considered for 2023.
Goalies are Talbot ($3.66M) and any backup ($750K at the cheapest). $4.4M
This is a 21 man roster rather than 23 man roster. This leaves Minnesota short on players throughout the year but possibly doable (I think Vegas did something like this with their roster numbers last year).
Add in Suter and Parise cap hits for next year $12.74
$42.27M + $18.075 (no Dumba) + $4.4M + $12.74M= $77.485M with a $82.5M cap in 2022-23. But with Dumba in it they are at $83.485M, which is over the cap.
Furthermore, if Minnesota wants to be competitive beyond this upcoming year (2021 2022) they are not likely playing so many players at or around the league minimum in 2023 (i.e. Rossi, Boldy, Addison and 2 other defencemen). If they do, they better hope that their young players all pan out.
Yes they could ship out a Foligno and/or Kulikov contract, but they still have to replace them with something of quality and those 2 guys are fairly cheap.
As could be seen from this last year's playoffs, Chiarot played top 4 minutes and he is cheaper than Dumba. This gives Minnesota more room under the cap if they want to add something of substance at the deadline.
I wasn't just throwing random numbers out there.
Other people that have responded to the post said that this is not bad value. Maybe they are right, but maybe you are. I think my suggestion is not horrible though. If you wanted to change the 2nd round pick to a 1st round pick Montreal may consider it. I think it is important not to overvalue Dumba though too. He is not a Norris candidate and as someone else said, he is not Jared Spurgeon coming off of Minnesota's team.
Okay, but you're wrong as much as you're being right.
Can we continue to afford his cap hit moving forward? Unlikely. Is he likely gone in the next two seasons? Possibly.
Do we want to move him? Not a chance in hell. We want to keep him any way we can. Offensive RHD who play a physical/gritty style, let alone in a top 4 talent, like he does aren't a dime a dozen. They most certainly don't grow on trees. It will take an absolute overpay to get him out of Minnesota. Maybe Wild fans tend to overvalue him a little bit, but he's more continually undervalued by other teams fans to the point of criminality.
Chiarot is strictly a 2nd pairing guy at best and plays the wrong side for our needs.
Savard isn't the player he used to be, and isn't much better. He's a 3rd pairing guy at this stage of his career.
Petry is overrated by Habs fans in much the same regard as Dumba is by Wild fans. But... Dumba is definitely the better player between the two. I've watched both at length and can easily say that Petry is a stop-gap option for that top-pairing spot, whereas Dumba is a legitimate replacement option. Petry is better defensively, but marginally so, as Dumba is much better defensively than people give him credit for. Dumba is more physical and plays a grittier game than Petry. Dumba is better offensively, and don't mouth off about boxscores, I mean from a pure talent standpoint. Dumba's slapshot is much harder as well. It's been recorded in the 120 mph range, which is harder and faster than Petry's low 100's. Dumba's a legitimate threat on the PP, Petry isn't.
One of, if not the primary reasons why Dumba hasn't produced the last few years was that it took roughly a good year and a half to bounce back to completely normal after his pectoral injury that ended his season three years ago. Last year he was far more focused on playing better defensively and his offense wasn't his primary focus. Brodin took advantage of that to play a more offensive role and saw an increase in his point totals as a result.
Which brings me to my next point. The Brodin-Dumba pairing has more or less been the Wild's top defensive pairing for the last two seasons. Where Dumba has logged as high as 25 minutes in a game at points during his career. I would trust him in a top pairing role far more than someone like Petry in that regard.
As for your trade value. You're right, it's fair from a technical
standpoint. Just not from a quality
standpoint. This trade as proposed is the very definition of quantity over quality. I don't see any reason why the Wild should say yes unless something better is being offered by Montreal.
For a long while fans have said that Dumba was about $2M overpaid for what he brings to the team. I've always disagreed with that sentiment but given the recent costs of defenseman in the league, he's now relatively cheap by comparison. Cap crunch or not, that holds immense value and the Wild aren't in the hole you seem to think they are, so your low-ball strategy is rather a moot point.
Furthermore, this notion that we have to move him is ridiculous. There are other players who will either be moved or let go of long before we let Dumba go. Namely, Victor Rask... What? The team is highly unlikely to bring him back. And even if we did, it would probably be at league minimum. He's not getting anything over a million again for the rest of his career. Don't be absurd.
You're also underestimating Dumba's desire to remain in Minnesota. This guy has dealt with trade rumors for the last few years and is sick of it. He's been very vocal about his desire to stay. He doesn't want to go anywhere else. He loves the team, his teammates, and the Twin Cities in general. It's his lifelong home as far as he's concerned, aside from his hometown of Calgary that is.
This is a player who is very likely
to be willing to sign a very friendly team discount type of contract just to stay in Minnesota. It's also very likely that the team tries to move out Zuccarello and Greenway and let Rask walk before ever consider trying to move him.