Peyton Krebs?
The guy who Vegas didn't wanna move for Eichel?
Uh, okay.

Boston would need to add for retention

Beecher is a meh prospect. His ceiling is a #3C.

With retention the boston deal might be close. I still think it’s a bit much for hertl.

The vegas deal is bonkers.

Placing a ceiling on a guy in college is really stupid. Personally i don’t think he’ll be an NHL player, but his ceiling is certainly higher than a 3C

I guess I thought I'd be nice and say he has some intangibles and size that could allow him to progress into some kind of NHLer, but you can certainly dump on your own prospects all you want. I was trying to be nice.

I think Krebs is probably off the table. And looking at some other deals for UFA centers (Pageau to NYI, Duchene to CBJ) I'd say these teams would be forking over 1 more piece. Say a 1st, 2nd, and good prospect.

I think all three teams would either need salary coming back or retention

I don’t really care if your nice or not. I guess i care a bit about accuracy. Beecher could certainly be a top line NHL center. It’s not likely. Ceiling is high. Probability of fulfilling the potential is very low.

The Boston trade looks most realistic

Downgrade Krebs to Brisson, and definitely need to add to that Boston deal, Beecher isn't close to the other two.

My Man... You're saying "not an NHLer" and also at the same time trying to justify being a "Top Line Center" in the NHL for a guy that was knocked to the #2C on his college team and beat out by freshman. How is his ceiling an NHL top line center AND how is any of that accurate???

Okay, let’s try to explain some concepts to you.

Let’s liken prospects to lottery tickets. That’s kind of what they are. Each of them have some sort of floor, ceiling, and probability to fulfill potential. Usually the top picks have very high ceilings, and a high likelihood of fulfilling that potential. They don’t always pull through. There’s a nail yakupov and all that. As you get further from the top of the draft, two things tend to happen. The ceilings get lower, and the probability of fulfilling the potential gets way way way lower. The two aren’t always correlated. Seems like the majority of the time teams are either picking a more certain future, or higher potential.

So, my man, i am not trying to say he’s not an NHLer and saying he’s a top line center, and i can’t really understand how that’s what was pulled out of my post.

I think he has the tools to be a high end NHL player…..and at the same time, i think it’s highly unlikely that he puts it together to the point where he even makes the NHL. High ceiling, low probability of fulfilling his potential….just like 95% of late first round picks.

So, in one small post you said it's stupid to place a ceiling on some one, immediately afterward commented on his ceiling, while also saying you don't think he'll be an NHL player?

First and foremost...you literally said word for word...Beecher could certainly be a top line NHL center. So that's where I thought you said...he could be a top line center.
Second thing is you word for word said...Personally i don’t think he’ll be an NHL player. So that's my understanding that you don't think he'll be an NHL player.

I 100% agree with the lottery metaphor. The problem with the logic you're using is that you're holding a lottery ticket where the 1st 3 digits have already been called...and you don't have any of the numbers on your ticket. BUT you're trying to tell me you can still win the lottery. You might get the next few numbers...to which you might have a #3C on your hands, but once younger guys start to bump you down the roster....for a college team...you didn't with the Mega Millions. You might not with anything...you might win $2...you might win $10. Technically if you win $10 you won the lottery, but we both know you didn't win the Top Line Center Role.

Well, this is where evaluation comes in, and we disagree. That’s fine. He’s a good enough skater with a strong enough skill set that he could definitely develop into a high end NHL player. There are some guys when it’s just like, “well, your not a good skater, so that’s that. You’re not gonna be elite.” There’s no red flags like that with Beecher. I’m just not wild about his hockey sense, so i don’t think he’ll pan out. The potential is certainly there though.

Anyhow, i didn’t say anything contradictory, and i didn’t introduce anything mutually exclusive.

Beecher = high ceiling, low probability of fulfilling it. He’s a powerball ticket, not a keno ticket.

Stating whether or not i think he’ll be an NHL player has exactly zero to do with what i think of his potential/ceiling.

if he's a powerball ticket, then his "potential" to be a 1st line center is basically negligible.
Potential usually refers to how good you think a player can be in a really good, but reasonable scenario.

yes very bizarre contradictory comments....
so we don't want to give ceilings..... but with this player it would be higher than 3c so 1C or 2C which is a very good prospect.. but they wont make the NHL soooooo were you meaning 1C or 2C on the AHL team....
usually players with a higher ceiling than 3C make it to the nhl in some capacity

There’s a couple posts above that explain this.

Potential and likelihood of fulfilling said potential are two completely different concepts.

High potential, low likelihood of fulfilling said potential. Simple.

I get that but most players with high potential still make it to the nhl maybe not as high as projected.
If you project as a 1C or 2C even falling short usually make it as a 3C 4C or winger....

Notice i didn’t say he projects as a 1C or 2C. Ceiling vs projection are two very different things.

Eichel has a massive contract and a broken neck basically that hasn't been fixed yet.

Hertl has neither of those issues.

Kevin Kurz never said anything about retention in his latest piece.


Although it's safe to assume it will be a requirement for either Boston, Tampa or Vegas.

At this point, just mark this for Beecher.