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Argument to bring back PK Subban for the final year of his contract

Créé par: KentMcNally
Équipe: 2021-22 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 13 sept. 2021
Publié: 13 sept. 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
I think PK would be energized to come back to Montreal. He loved it there and i think you could see an uptick in his play if he returns.
He is a right shot defenceman, which is in demand in Montreal.
At this stage in his career he would not be expected to be "the guy", he would just be a quality addition to the defence as a 2nd or 3rd pairing player.
If you pro rate his stats from last year he was on pace for about 35 points. Not bad for a D. I acknowledge that the points likely came as a result of being given top pairing minutes in NJ, though. Nevertheless, i think Subban on the 2nd or 3rd pair will still get more points than Kulak will likely ever get. Kulak may bestronger defensively, but not substantially.
With respect to draft picks some people tend to overvalue picks after the first round. If you do some Google searching about the likelihood of a draft pick playing more than 200 games in the NHL you will see that picks in the 3rd round and later have a low rate of success. Of course there are always exceptions to this and some real stars are found in the later rounds, but the math is what it is.
In this scenario I even left Drouin on the team, which I almost never do in any of my other posts. I am still very skeptical about him though.
Reasonable approach for Montreal (and NJ) or no?
Does Montreal need to add or subtract to make it happen?
Transactions
MTL
  1. Subban, P.K. (3 500 000 $ retained)
NJD
  1. Fairbrother, Gianni
  2. Kapanen, Oliver [Liste de réserve]
  3. Kulak, Brett
  4. Choix de 3e ronde en 2022 (CAR)
Détails additionnels:
I have seen many posts suggesting a Subban trade where NJ retains $4.5M and they are trying to basically give him away. If they retain $3,500,000.00 and pay Kulak's $1.85M it is all pretty close. Kulak is certainly worth $850K. (The $1M difference is the difference between retaining $4.5M vs $3.5M)
I still think PK brings a lot more to the table than Brett (but Kulak is not terrible, as he reportedly has good analytical value).
NJ gets some assets for a guy on an outgoing contract that I cannroot see them re-signing.
Fairbther will stay in the minors to avoid the actual cap hit to NJ.
Rachats de contrats
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2022
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2381 500 000 $69 800 477 $597 561 $1 475 000 $11 699 523 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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2 125 000 $2 125 000 $
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863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance537 500 $$538K)
C
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880 833 $880 833 $ (Bonis de performance300 000 $$300K)
AG, AD
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4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
AG
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4 450 000 $4 450 000 $
C
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC, NMC
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3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
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1 150 000 $1 150 000 $
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750 000 $750 000 $
C
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950 000 $950 000 $
AG, AD, C
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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875 000 $875 000 $
DG/DD
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UFA - 3
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2 343 750 $2 343 750 $
DD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
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10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
G
NMC
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894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance637 500 $$638K)
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3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
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2 875 000 $2 875 000 $
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1 750 000 $1 750 000 $
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5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
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750 000 $750 000 $
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Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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737 500 $737 500 $
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7 857 143 $7 857 143 $
DD
UFA - 5
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950 000 $950 000 $
C, AG, AD
UFA - 1
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3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2

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13 sept. 2021 à 11 h 30
#1
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As long as its OK with your salary Kap, I'd say its generally fair, brother.
palhal a aimé ceci.
13 sept. 2021 à 11 h 32
#2
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I know little about Fairbrother
And less about Kapanen (Sami's kid, right?)

But I would think it would be one or the other in this package.

(Maybe the other goes to third team to retain an extra 25% of Subban contract)
13 sept. 2021 à 12 h 1
#3
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
As long as its OK with your salary Kap, I'd say its generally fair, brother.


As long as it's... Ku(Cool)lak, one might say?
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13 sept. 2021 à 12 h 4
#4
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Good until Byron comes off LTIR and then what?
13 sept. 2021 à 12 h 17
#5
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Without even considering the other factors, I don't see Bergevin bringing him back. Too "flashy" for his taste.

It would be somewhat ironic to replace Weber with Subban after all this time. Regardless, we chose our top 4 Weber replacement in Savard.
Now we need to replace Chiarot with the quality puck mover we never managed to give Weber.
13 sept. 2021 à 12 h 17
#6
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Quoting: gmurrayt
Good until Byron comes off LTIR and then what?


I think you could trade him and a pick to a team that is valuing picks (Arizona, Buffalo, Seattle etc). If Byron comes off LTIR after 30 games or so his remaining cap hit is about $2.2M (the longer he is on LTIR the less his hit is, as you undoubtedly know). So you would have to entice a team to take $2.2M this year and then either buy him out or pay him the $3.4M for 2022-2023.
I am not sure what that value is as far as picks go. Maybe a second rounder and a prospect like Tuch or Kidney.
Byron still has value and I think it increased when he goes to a team with cap space that is looking for a leader for their young guys. That team has to be willing to take PB for 2 years which means it’s not a team that is going to contend during that time (because PB takes up too much cap space for a real contender).
The cap is also like going up slightly next year.
13 sept. 2021 à 12 h 24
#7
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Quoting: ricochetii
Without even considering the other factors, I don't see Bergevin bringing him back. Too "flashy" for his taste.

It would be somewhat ironic to replace Weber with Subban after all this time. Regardless, we chose our top 4 Weber replacement in Savard.
Now we need to replace Chiarot with the quality puck mover we never managed to give Weber.


Quoting: ricochetii
Without even considering the other factors, I don't see Bergevin bringing him back. Too "flashy" for his taste.

It would be somewhat ironic to replace Weber with Subban after all this time. Regardless, we chose our top 4 Weber replacement in Savard.
Now we need to replace Chiarot with the quality puck mover we never managed to give Weber.


You could try to convince Subban to re-sign with Montreal at or around the price it would cost to re-sign Chiarot.
If you look at everything is Subban > Chiarot if they are both at the same price tag?? I don’t know
Does Subban bring something extra to Montreal’s blue line that Chiarot does not (offensive capabilities)?
I think it is easier to replace a stay at home defenseman (They already have Savard, Edmundson, Romanov, Guhle) than it is to get a good offensive blue liner.
But I could be wrong
13 sept. 2021 à 12 h 44
#8
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Plus getting Subban would keep him from the Leafs, which is something I have seen they are interested in. It would be very frustrating to see PK in Toronto and playing well in games against Montreal.....
13 sept. 2021 à 15 h 8
#9
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Quoting: KentMcNally
You could try to convince Subban to re-sign with Montreal at or around the price it would cost to re-sign Chiarot.
If you look at everything is Subban > Chiarot if they are both at the same price tag?? I don’t know
Does Subban bring something extra to Montreal’s blue line that Chiarot does not (offensive capabilities)?
I think it is easier to replace a stay at home defenseman (They already have Savard, Edmundson, Romanov, Guhle) than it is to get a good offensive blue liner.
But I could be wrong


Re-signing him is also no good (unless it's as a 3rd pairing RD, but he's not going to sign for that role and salary).

Montreal needs to start looking ahead at who's going to be top 4 RD beyond Petry/Savard as well.
13 sept. 2021 à 17 h 20
#10
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Quoting: KentMcNally
I think you could trade him and a pick to a team that is valuing picks (Arizona, Buffalo, Seattle etc). If Byron comes off LTIR after 30 games or so his remaining cap hit is about $2.2M (the longer he is on LTIR the less his hit is, as you undoubtedly know). So you would have to entice a team to take $2.2M this year and then either buy him out or pay him the $3.4M for 2022-2023.
I am not sure what that value is as far as picks go. Maybe a second rounder and a prospect like Tuch or Kidney.
Byron still has value and I think it increased when he goes to a team with cap space that is looking for a leader for their young guys. That team has to be willing to take PB for 2 years which means it’s not a team that is going to contend during that time (because PB takes up too much cap space for a real contender).
The cap is also like going up slightly next year.


As you may or may or may not know, you cannot accumulate cap space while utilizing LTIR. So it does not matter when Byron comes off LTIR, at that point you will need to get rid of other contracts equal to 3.4 million to still be cap complaint. I.e. if Byron misses half the year and then comes off LTIR you still need to get rid of a Armia, Edmuston, or Savard to become cap compliant, trading someone like Lekhonen alone will not do it. (I am not recommending any of these players, merely using them as cap comparables for this example).
 
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