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Is Mitch Marner Really Overpaid

12 sept. 2021 à 15 h 27
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In Barzal's case, he was one year older than Marner when entering the league, was producing at a great level, But not on Marner's. He could have asked for Eichel's contract fairly in my mind. Him and the Islanders opted for a bridge deal in the end which obviously is why his cap hit ($7M) is significantly lower than Marner's. Their offensive input was pretty similar, however, Marner was already starting to get some defensive responsibilities, while Barzal to this day hasn't been trusted with any defensive responsibilities at all. The Islanders could at the negations point to Barzal not being close to Marner in terms of two-way ability which most likely why Barzal didn't get an extension in the Marner range right away. They probably want to know that his production offensively would match the top players in the league before throwing that kind of money at him.

In Point's case, he was also 1 year older than Marner when entering the league. Just like Barzal, he managed to put up some great numbers on his ELC, but not on Marner's level ppg wise. He got a big role on the PK in his 2nd season in the league being Tampa's most used forward short handed, but didn't play that role at all in the following year. Point elected to sign a bridge deal, which obviously helped the cap strangled Lightning at the time. He was worth just as much money as Marner in my opinion, his production was a little worse, however his underlying number were great, he had shown to be a good two-way player, being a goal scorer while also playing centre. He did Tampa such a favor by taking the deal that he did. He elected to ''help the team'' and take an EXTREMELY cheap contract compared to his value. I don't think you can look down on Marner for not doing the same, but that is only my opinion.

Rantanen was also a year older than Marner when entering the league. His production on his ELC was also great, but not on Marner's level. He wasn't a two-way player at all with his underlying defensive numbers being pretty bad at the time. he signed a six year extension just like Marner, but his cap hit was ''only'' $9.25M compared to Marner's $10.9M. The difference between the two players at the time wasn't that big at all, but I will have to say that I think Marner still should have been paid more than Rantanen as he scored at a higher clip, while also being a better two-way player.

From the information I have found (correct me if I am wrong), there are only 7 players that have scored at a higher pace than Marner when being on their ELC's. Those players in PPG order are Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, McDavid, Bäckström, Matthews, Stamkos and Kane. The first five names where all above a point per game during their ELC's while Matthews (0.97 PPG), Stamkos (0.95 PPG), Kane (0.94 PPG) and Marner (0.93 PPG) were just shy of that. This just goes to show what elite company Marner is in production wise. Comparing Marner to Matthews, Stamkos and Kane, the only player together with Marner that had seen some defensive responsibilities in addition to be tasked with scoring point was Stamkos. He was Tampa's 9th most used forward on the PK, but averaged more than a minute a night short handed during his second year in the league. That responsibility disappeared in his 3rd season. At such a young age Marner was already getting molded into not only be great offensively like the guys I have mentioned above, he was also developing into a complete two-way player. You can only say that about Crosby and Bäckström on this list. None of the other players are known for their defensive capabilities at all.

Since Marner signed his contract, he has been worth $10.9M in my opinion. He is 10th in PPG and 5th in APG since signing that contract. Out of all the wingers that produce on an elite level, ONLY Brad Marchand is as good and important defensively as Marner is. TODAY, he is on the same level defensively as Bergeron, Couturier, Stone, Kopitar, Barkov, Point and O'Reilly who all are known to be elite two way, but NONE of them produces at the same level offensively. Guys like Pastrnak and Kane are rightfully considered as better offensive players than Marner, but not by much. his PPG pace is close to theirs since he signed the contract, but none of them are even close to being as complete as Marner is. The only forwards I hold above Marner are McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Draisaitl, Crosby, Kucherov, Panarin and Marchand. I think Marner is on par or better than every other forward in league outside of that list if you take his overall production, his defensive capabilities and responsibilities into consideration. He literally does everything except taking face-offs. He plays all situations, heavy usage 5v5, on the PP, on the PK, when protecting the lead, when trying to score a goal, and over time. Of the players I have ranked higher than him, only Marchand does all the same things while producing points at a ridiculous level.

Nobody could have predicted that a global pandemic would hit which would impact the salary cap the way it did. In reality, Marner's contract was going to age really well, as he wasn't worth the money when signing it, but 3 years in he would be worth every single penny. Let's say the salary cap would have continued to rise at the same level it did for the 5 years prior to the 2019-2020 season. It was $69M in 2014-2015 and $81.5M in 2019-2020. that's an increase by $2.5M per year on average. If you would use that average increase by $2.5M per year, the salary cap ceiling for this season would be $86.5M. Nobody would or at least should be complaining that Marner would be paid $10.9M if the ceiling was $86.5M.

Marner is the 5th highest paid forward in the league. I had 9 forwards that are better than him so if Marner would be paid equally to the 10th highest paid forward in the league, he would be paid $9.85M (Seguin is the 10th highest paid forward in the league). By the end of the season I could see him realistically pass both Crosby and Marchand on that list due to their age likely forcing a decline in their play. Being paid equally to your talent level in this league is very rare. A lot of players are over and under paid. Marner who is a top 10 forward in the league in my opinion, is getting paid the 5th highest forward salary in the league. I don't think that is such an overpayment that people seem to be thinking. And even if you as a reader, have Marner as the 13th or 15th best forward in the league, is he really that overpaid? The salary reflects his position in the game compared to his counter parts. It is guys like Benn, Skinner, Voracek, Johansen, Couture and Duchene who are paid like upper echelon players that don't produce at a level that matches their contracts. Marner does produce at a level that matches his contract. Last season he was on pace for 30 goals and 100 points if the season was normal length. The season before, he was on pace for 93 points before the pandemic canceled the finale of the regular season and 3 years ago, the year he had before he signed his contract, he had 26 goals and 94 points in 82 games. I understand that the game is so much more than about points. His underlying numbers prove that he also is an absolute elite two-way player.

Marner has got better in each of his five seasons in the NHL. He is a premier player in this league, and all the slander he gets is so unjustified and based on nothing but air. He is a wonderful hockey player to watch and from everything I have heard and read about him, he seems like an awesome human being as well. People always want fo find someone to blame when things go wrong, but Marner isn't the one to blame. You can rightfully criticize that he hasn't scored a goal in the last two playoff rounds, which I more than anything attribute to bad luck. He has till managed to put up 25 points in 32 play off games which doesn't reflect a complete no-show that people say he is in the post-season. It is not his fault alone that the Leafs haven't been able to get it done since they became a team people regard as a contender. The blame should be distributed equally among the core players we have. Prior to Keefe becoming the head coach, the blame should be on Mike Babcock's inability to coach in the series against Boston. Since Keefe took over, he has empowered the players and put his faith in them which is 100% the right thing to do. Against Columbus we ran into two goalies that had a combined SV% of 95.2%. I don't know what you can do against that, it is just absolutely insane. Against MTL, Matthews and Marner were the only core players that didn't produce to an expected level. They drove play like they always do, but couldn't put the puck in the net enough. I don't know how to react to that. Logically, they will at some point have to regress to the mean, which means that their point production in the post season will have to start matching their dominance. I am confident it will, and that this whole Marner being overrated and overpaid discussion can be put to bed so we can simply sit back and enjoy his fantastic work like we do with so many other star players in the league.
12 sept. 2021 à 15 h 31
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short rebuttal: yes

altho the hate he's been getting this offseason is really annoying
12 sept. 2021 à 16 h 0
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
In Barzal's case, he was one year older than Marner when entering the league, was producing at a great level, But not on Marner's. He could have asked for Eichel's contract fairly in my mind. Him and the Islanders opted for a bridge deal in the end which obviously is why his cap hit ($7M) is significantly lower than Marner's. Their offensive input was pretty similar, however, Marner was already starting to get some defensive responsibilities, while Barzal to this day hasn't been trusted with any defensive responsibilities at all. The Islanders could at the negations point to Barzal not being close to Marner in terms of two-way ability which most likely why Barzal didn't get an extension in the Marner range right away. They probably want to know that his production offensively would match the top players in the league before throwing that kind of money at him.

In Point's case, he was also 1 year older than Marner when entering the league. Just like Barzal, he managed to put up some great numbers on his ELC, but not on Marner's level ppg wise. He got a big role on the PK in his 2nd season in the league being Tampa's most used forward short handed, but didn't play that role at all in the following year. Point elected to sign a bridge deal, which obviously helped the cap strangled Lightning at the time. He was worth just as much money as Marner in my opinion, his production was a little worse, however his underlying number were great, he had shown to be a good two-way player, being a goal scorer while also playing centre. He did Tampa such a favor by taking the deal that he did. He elected to ''help the team'' and take an EXTREMELY cheap contract compared to his value. I don't think you can look down on Marner for not doing the same, but that is only my opinion.

Rantanen was also a year older than Marner when entering the league. His production on his ELC was also great, but not on Marner's level. He wasn't a two-way player at all with his underlying defensive numbers being pretty bad at the time. he signed a six year extension just like Marner, but his cap hit was ''only'' $9.25M compared to Marner's $10.9M. The difference between the two players at the time wasn't that big at all, but I will have to say that I think Marner still should have been paid more than Rantanen as he scored at a higher clip, while also being a better two-way player.

From the information I have found (correct me if I am wrong), there are only 7 players that have scored at a higher pace than Marner when being on their ELC's. Those players in PPG order are Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, McDavid, Bäckström, Matthews, Stamkos and Kane. The first five names where all above a point per game during their ELC's while Matthews (0.97 PPG), Stamkos (0.95 PPG), Kane (0.94 PPG) and Marner (0.93 PPG) were just shy of that. This just goes to show what elite company Marner is in production wise. Comparing Marner to Matthews, Stamkos and Kane, the only player together with Marner that had seen some defensive responsibilities in addition to be tasked with scoring point was Stamkos. He was Tampa's 9th most used forward on the PK, but averaged more than a minute a night short handed during his second year in the league. That responsibility disappeared in his 3rd season. At such a young age Marner was already getting molded into not only be great offensively like the guys I have mentioned above, he was also developing into a complete two-way player. You can only say that about Crosby and Bäckström on this list. None of the other players are known for their defensive capabilities at all.

Since Marner signed his contract, he has been worth $10.9M in my opinion. He is 10th in PPG and 5th in APG since signing that contract. Out of all the wingers that produce on an elite level, ONLY Brad Marchand is as good and important defensively as Marner is. TODAY, he is on the same level defensively as Bergeron, Couturier, Stone, Kopitar, Barkov, Point and O'Reilly who all are known to be elite two way, but NONE of them produces at the same level offensively. Guys like Pastrnak and Kane are rightfully considered as better offensive players than Marner, but not by much. his PPG pace is close to theirs since he signed the contract, but none of them are even close to being as complete as Marner is. The only forwards I hold above Marner are McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Draisaitl, Crosby, Kucherov, Panarin and Marchand. I think Marner is on par or better than every other forward in league outside of that list if you take his overall production, his defensive capabilities and responsibilities into consideration. He literally does everything except taking face-offs. He plays all situations, heavy usage 5v5, on the PP, on the PK, when protecting the lead, when trying to score a goal, and over time. Of the players I have ranked higher than him, only Marchand does all the same things while producing points at a ridiculous level.

Nobody could have predicted that a global pandemic would hit which would impact the salary cap the way it did. In reality, Marner's contract was going to age really well, as he wasn't worth the money when signing it, but 3 years in he would be worth every single penny. Let's say the salary cap would have continued to rise at the same level it did for the 5 years prior to the 2019-2020 season. It was $69M in 2014-2015 and $81.5M in 2019-2020. that's an increase by $2.5M per year on average. If you would use that average increase by $2.5M per year, the salary cap ceiling for this season would be $86.5M. Nobody would or at least should be complaining that Marner would be paid $10.9M if the ceiling was $86.5M.

Marner is the 5th highest paid forward in the league. I had 9 forwards that are better than him so if Marner would be paid equally to the 10th highest paid forward in the league, he would be paid $9.85M (Seguin is the 10th highest paid forward in the league). By the end of the season I could see him realistically pass both Crosby and Marchand on that list due to their age likely forcing a decline in their play. Being paid equally to your talent level in this league is very rare. A lot of players are over and under paid. Marner who is a top 10 forward in the league in my opinion, is getting paid the 5th highest forward salary in the league. I don't think that is such an overpayment that people seem to be thinking. And even if you as a reader, have Marner as the 13th or 15th best forward in the league, is he really that overpaid? The salary reflects his position in the game compared to his counter parts. It is guys like Benn, Skinner, Voracek, Johansen, Couture and Duchene who are paid like upper echelon players that don't produce at a level that matches their contracts. Marner does produce at a level that matches his contract. Last season he was on pace for 30 goals and 100 points if the season was normal length. The season before, he was on pace for 93 points before the pandemic canceled the finale of the regular season and 3 years ago, the year he had before he signed his contract, he had 26 goals and 94 points in 82 games. I understand that the game is so much more than about points. His underlying numbers prove that he also is an absolute elite two-way player.

Marner has got better in each of his five seasons in the NHL. He is a premier player in this league, and all the slander he gets is so unjustified and based on nothing but air. He is a wonderful hockey player to watch and from everything I have heard and read about him, he seems like an awesome human being as well. People always want fo find someone to blame when things go wrong, but Marner isn't the one to blame. You can rightfully criticize that he hasn't scored a goal in the last two playoff rounds, which I more than anything attribute to bad luck. He has till managed to put up 25 points in 32 play off games which doesn't reflect a complete no-show that people say he is in the post-season. It is not his fault alone that the Leafs haven't been able to get it done since they became a team people regard as a contender. The blame should be distributed equally among the core players we have. Prior to Keefe becoming the head coach, the blame should be on Mike Babcock's inability to coach in the series against Boston. Since Keefe took over, he has empowered the players and put his faith in them which is 100% the right thing to do. Against Columbus we ran into two goalies that had a combined SV% of 95.2%. I don't know what you can do against that, it is just absolutely insane. Against MTL, Matthews and Marner were the only core players that didn't produce to an expected level. They drove play like they always do, but couldn't put the puck in the net enough. I don't know how to react to that. Logically, they will at some point have to regress to the mean, which means that their point production in the post season will have to start matching their dominance. I am confident it will, and that this whole Marner being overrated and overpaid discussion can be put to bed so we can simply sit back and enjoy his fantastic work like we do with so many other star players in the league.


Marner is great (during the regular season) but I think you’re overrating him a bit. He’s not a top 10 forward in the league. Stone , pettersson , oreilly, Rantanen, Couturier, Point, Bergeron , Barkov are clearly better than Marner.
12 sept. 2021 à 16 h 2
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Modifié 12 sept. 2021 à 16 h 26
Marner is 1.3mill overpaid against the cap but if we look multiple factors including Canadian taxes one could argue why it was done through his representatives perspective

Here is an example between Marner the closest comparable's in Rantanen and Kucherov once respected taxes are applied

Mitch Marner

Cap Hit/Salary: $10,893,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,097,129 (53.5% Tax Rate Ontario 2021)

Mikko Rantanen


Cap Hit/Salary: $9,250,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,215,848 (43.61% Tax Rate Colorado 2021)

Nikita Kucherov

Cap Hit/Salary: $9,500,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,795,174 (39% Tax Rate Florida 2021)

Now if we apply these same cap hits to Ontario's tax system

Marner would have made between $4,333,620-$4,449,796 if his cap hit was between 9.25-9.5

So in the end Marner is taking home less thanks to Canadian taxes.

In general Canadian teams no matter where they are often have to overpay their talent or free agents they bring in. It sucks but when you factor in taxes and other factors it makes sense. And its not just hockey that this is seen, basketball and baseball players in Canada often have higher cap hits. Examples include Blue Jays bringing in Springer.

Anyways the whole Marner overpaid thing is a tiresome dialogue that is just people crying away at how much a guy is making. Be thankful that he is still young and a potential 100point player as it could be worse look at Buffalo and Skinner. My advice move on as sooner or later someone worse than Marner will be making more once the cap starts going up
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12 sept. 2021 à 16 h 54
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Quoting: aadoyle
Marner is 1.3mill overpaid against the cap but if we look multiple factors including Canadian taxes one could argue why it was done through his representatives perspective

Here is an example between Marner the closest comparable's in Rantanen and Kucherov once respected taxes are applied

Mitch Marner

Cap Hit/Salary: $10,893,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,097,129 (53.5% Tax Rate Ontario 2021)

Mikko Rantanen


Cap Hit/Salary: $9,250,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,215,848 (43.61% Tax Rate Colorado 2021)

Nikita Kucherov

Cap Hit/Salary: $9,500,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,795,174 (39% Tax Rate Florida 2021)

Now if we apply these same cap hits to Ontario's tax system

Marner would have made between $4,333,620-$4,449,796 if his cap hit was between 9.25-9.5

So in the end Marner is taking home less thanks to Canadian taxes.

In general Canadian teams no matter where they are often have to overpay their talent or free agents they bring in. It sucks but when you factor in taxes and other factors it makes sense. And its not just hockey that this is seen, basketball and baseball players in Canada often have higher cap hits. Examples include Blue Jays bringing in Springer.

Anyways the whole Marner overpaid thing is a tiresome dialogue that is just people crying away at how much a guy is making. Be thankful that he is still young and a potential 100point player as it could be worse look at Buffalo and Skinner. My advice move on as sooner or later someone worse than Marner will be making more once the cap starts going up


This is true on many level, if you look at Marner’s deal at face value, you may be like he should get 10mil and not almost 11 but then you look at taxes and other factors and the deal makes more sense
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12 sept. 2021 à 16 h 57
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Modifié 12 sept. 2021 à 22 h 12
Quoting: A_Habs_fan
This is true on many level, if you look at Marner’s deal at face value, you may be like he should get 10mil and not almost 11 but then you look at taxes and other factors and the deal makes more sense


Yep and its sad especially for other sports like baseball. Springer is making 25mill in Toronto for 6 years when in the USA he probs would have signed a 15-18 mill deal for the same term
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12 sept. 2021 à 17 h 5
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Quoting: aadoyle
Marner is 1.3mill overpaid against the cap but if we look multiple factors including Canadian taxes one could argue why it was done through his representatives perspective

Here is an example between Marner the closest comparable's in Rantanen and Kucherov once respected taxes are applied

Mitch Marner

Cap Hit/Salary: $10,893,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,097,129 (53.5% Tax Rate Ontario 2021)

Mikko Rantanen


Cap Hit/Salary: $9,250,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,215,848 (43.61% Tax Rate Colorado 2021)

Nikita Kucherov

Cap Hit/Salary: $9,500,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,795,174 (39% Tax Rate Florida 2021)

Now if we apply these same cap hits to Ontario's tax system

Marner would have made between $4,333,620-$4,449,796 if his cap hit was between 9.25-9.5

So in the end Marner is taking home less thanks to Canadian taxes.

In general Canadian teams no matter where they are often have to overpay their talent or free agents they bring in. It sucks but when you factor in taxes and other factors it makes sense. And its not just hockey that this is seen, basketball and baseball players in Canada often have higher cap hits. Examples include Blue Jays bringing in Springer.

Anyways the whole Marner overpaid thing is a tiresome dialogue that is just people crying away at how much a guy is making. Be thankful that he is still young and a potential 100point player as it could be worse look at Buffalo and Skinner. My advice move on as sooner or later someone worse than Marner will be making more once the cap starts going up


If you are going to consider tax differences then you should also look at cost of living differences too
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12 sept. 2021 à 17 h 34
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Taxes plays a factor. The ppg when he sign do to. He's not grossly overpaid as some say. Seen a show where a bucks guy said his contract is Loui Eriksson bad lmaooo

We know marner is good we know he can be dominant. Past 2 years in playoffs is a problem and it sucks but he's still young entering prime and has 4 years. Instead of hating on a 90 two way winger on your team maybe support him a bit more. Get upset if he don't preform up to par in playoffs. Leafs fans shouldn't hate him like a majority do.

Plus pre covid contract and it you want to say he's overpaid well then look at kucherov contract and add a bit more for having Toronto tax.
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12 sept. 2021 à 17 h 48
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Quoting: UpsideDownQue
If you are going to consider tax differences then you should also look at cost of living differences too


I was trying to simplify it for the average viewer but maybe one day I will go through a players entire cost of living to see how much some are actually making then make a list. That way we can see all costs and see how much they actually are getting in the end.
12 sept. 2021 à 20 h 10
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Quoting: Db1899
Marner is great (during the regular season) but I think you’re overrating him a bit. He’s not a top 10 forward in the league. Stone , pettersson , oreilly, Rantanen, Couturier, Point, Bergeron , Barkov are clearly better than Marner.


He is better than every single player you mentioned. You can make a case for Point and Barkov, but nobody else.
12 sept. 2021 à 21 h 5
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
He is better than every single player you mentioned. You can make a case for Point and Barkov, but nobody else.


Mark Stone is definitely better than Marner. These are his advanced stats from last season.

From 2018-20 (ranks among all skaters) . Stats from EH
WAR : 8.1 (2nd)
XWAR: 9.4 (1st)
Off : 31 (9th)
Def : 10.5 (15th)

It really isn’t that close. Stone is a top 3 winger in the league


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12 sept. 2021 à 21 h 12
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
He is better than every single player you mentioned. You can make a case for Point and Barkov, but nobody else.


Stone, Rantanen, Point and Barkov are I’d say better than Marner, it’s also hard to compare a winger to a center
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12 sept. 2021 à 22 h 16
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
Stone, Rantanen, Point and Barkov are I’d say better than Marner, it’s also hard to compare a winger to a center


Honestly I think Stone is the finished product of what Marner will become. Marner may develop into something even better but hey having Stone as your ceiling aint bad.

Rantanen is Marner with more offense weapons and a better finish but weaker on defense. The rest I don't compare as comparing centers to wings and vice versa has to many complications and factors.
12 sept. 2021 à 23 h 7
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Quoting: aadoyle
Honestly I think Stone is the finished product of what Marner will become. Marner may develop into something even better but hey having Stone as your ceiling aint bad.

Rantanen is Marner with more offense weapons and a better finish but weaker on defense. The rest I don't compare as comparing centers to wings and vice versa has to many complications and factors.


Marner is an elite player but he will never be as good as Stone.
13 sept. 2021 à 11 h 5
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Quoting: Db1899
Mark Stone is definitely better than Marner. These are his advanced stats from last season.

From 2018-20 (ranks among all skaters) . Stats from EH
WAR : 8.1 (2nd)
XWAR: 9.4 (1st)
Off : 31 (9th)
Def : 10.5 (15th)

It really isn’t that close. Stone is a top 3 winger in the league




Go and take a look at Marner's player card please. Only reason Stone's WAR is higher than Marner's is due to his finishing and Marner's numbers not being as good 3 seasons ago. Compare Stone to Marner over the last two seasons and you will see for yourself.
13 sept. 2021 à 11 h 6
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Quoting: Db1899
Marner is an elite player but he will never be as good as Stone.


What are you talking about? He is better offensively and defensively than Stone today!
13 sept. 2021 à 11 h 23
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
Go and take a look at Marner's player card please. Only reason Stone's WAR is higher than Marner's is due to his finishing and Marner's numbers not being as good 3 seasons ago. Compare Stone to Marner over the last two seasons and you will see for yourself.


Finishing is one reason Stone is better than Marner. He also is 3 SD GF/60 (increasing teams rate of scoring) while Marner is not. You also have to take into account Marner plays with the best goal scorer in the game and both his point totals/isolated metrics drop off without Matthews. Stone is a line driver who can carry average players and still has an elite impact on his teams rate of scoring . That is not the case with Marner. Comparing Stone to Marner using Jfresh cards, Evolvinghockey, and Micahs model , it’s really not that close. Stone is currently a top 10 forward over the last two seasons while Marner is in the 20-25 range.
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13 sept. 2021 à 11 h 25
#18
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
What are you talking about? He is better offensively and defensively than Stone today!


No he is not. The most important offensive metric is GF/60 and Stone has him beat over the last two seasons. It is absolutely insane that you really think Marner has been better the Stone over the last two years . One of the worst takes I’ve ever seen on this site.
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13 sept. 2021 à 11 h 41
#19
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Quoting: Db1899
No he is not. The most important offensive metric is GF/60 and Stone has him beat over the last two seasons. It is absolutely insane that you really think Marner has been better the Stone over the last two years . One of the worst takes I’ve ever seen on this site.


You are right, Stone has Marner beat by two percentiles in xGF this year with 97% compared to Marner's 95%... Marner's defensive impact however was better than Stone's last year with 88% xGA compared to Stone's 80% xGA. Marner definitely had the more impressive 20/21 season if you compare the two. He had more points, more even strength goals, assists and points than Stone. Saying that Marner is better than Stone today is one of the worst takes you've ever seen? Seriously, wake up.
13 sept. 2021 à 11 h 54
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
You are right, Stone has Marner beat by two percentiles in xGF this year with 97% compared to Marner's 95%... Marner's defensive impact however was better than Stone's last year with 88% xGA compared to Stone's 80% xGA. Marner definitely had the more impressive 20/21 season if you compare the two. He had more points, more even strength goals, assists and points than Stone. Saying that Marner is better than Stone today is one of the worst takes you've ever seen? Seriously, wake up.


Evolving hockey has Stone as the best play driving winger in the NHL. His xGF is at 3SD, while Marner is less than 2 SD. They also ranked him in their top 5 for the Hart Trophy. Micahs isolated impact has Stone at +15.4 xGF% for the 20-21 season, Marner at +5% xGF% . That’s a 10% difference…So Stone is the better play offensive play driver and he increases his teams rate of scoring more than Marner while having less talented linemates.
13 sept. 2021 à 11 h 57
#21
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
You are right, Stone has Marner beat by two percentiles in xGF this year with 97% compared to Marner's 95%... Marner's defensive impact however was better than Stone's last year with 88% xGA compared to Stone's 80% xGA. Marner definitely had the more impressive 20/21 season if you compare the two. He had more points, more even strength goals, assists and points than Stone. Saying that Marner is better than Stone today is one of the worst takes you've ever seen? Seriously, wake up.


I don’t only use Jfresh cards to evaluate players. It is funny that you are arguing that Marner had the more impressive season than Stone using his work when that link to the Stone card was Jfresh arguing that Stone is #3 in his Hart Trophy favorites.
13 sept. 2021 à 12 h 21
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Quoting: Db1899
I don’t only use Jfresh cards to evaluate players. It is funny that you are arguing that Marner had the more impressive season than Stone using his work when that link to the Stone card was Jfresh arguing that Stone is #3 in his Hart Trophy favorites.


Different models are going to produce different numbers, that is just how it is. I am not saying that one or the other is better, because that is absolutely not my place. In this particular debate, I was using JFresh's model, and based on it, Marner had a more impressive season than Stone. Their offensive input was almost identical while Marner was quite a bit better defensively. I like to look at players output at 5v5 as I think that is much better representation of good they are as players. Marner scored more goals, provided more assists, and scored more points than Stone at 5v5. His QoC is in the 100th percentile while his QoT is in the 98th. Your argument regarding Stone playing with average players is factually incorrect too. His QoT is in the 94th percentile while his QoC is in the 90th. This suggests that Marner's opponents on the ice are better than his teammates while it is completely reversed with Stone. He still produces more at even strength. This whole act of thinking that these two players aren't close to each other is nothing but nonsense.
13 sept. 2021 à 13 h 0
#23
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
Different models are going to produce different numbers, that is just how it is. I am not saying that one or the other is better, because that is absolutely not my place. In this particular debate, I was using JFresh's model, and based on it, Marner had a more impressive season than Stone. Their offensive input was almost identical while Marner was quite a bit better defensively. I like to look at players output at 5v5 as I think that is much better representation of good they are as players. Marner scored more goals, provided more assists, and scored more points than Stone at 5v5. His QoC is in the 100th percentile while his QoT is in the 98th. Your argument regarding Stone playing with average players is factually incorrect too. His QoT is in the 94th percentile while his QoC is in the 90th. This suggests that Marner's opponents on the ice are better than his teammates while it is completely reversed with Stone. He still produces more at even strength. This whole act of thinking that these two players aren't close to each other is nothing but nonsense.


You’re arguing that Marner had a more impressive season than Stone based on Jfresh model, when even he thinks Stone’s season was more impressive. Based on his model, Mark Stone was better than Marner in the 20-21 season. Every other model has Stone having the better overall impact - but let’s ignore that because it doesn’t fit your narrative. It is a general consensus among the analytics community that at worst Stone is the 2nd best right wing in the NHL. Clearly you know better.

If you want to go based on 5v5 play, Stone is the better 5v5 player because the most important metric for offense is GF/60. Really easy to come to a conclusion on who’s better at 5v5. Kyle Connor is a 40 goal scorer but he negatively impacts his teams GF/60, therefore he is not a great offensive player.

Of course you want to use raw stats and not account for the fact that Marner averaged 3 more minutes of ice time than Stone. Their rate numbers at 5v5 were similar. Then when you look at Stones superior play driving ability and impact on his teams rate of scoring , it’s obvious that Stone is the better player.

QOC doesn’t mean much at all, QOT is a lot more important. Marners QOT% over the last 3 years is in the 99th percentile and he plays with the best finisher in hockey. You should go look at Marners rate of scoring / analytics without Matthews. The difference between Stone and Marner is that Marner needs an elite finisher to be successful, Stone makes the players around him better and produces at an elite level no matter who he’s with.
13 sept. 2021 à 13 h 10
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
What are you talking about? He is better offensively and defensively than Stone today!


I'm sorry but saying Marner is better defensively than Stone is just stupid, look at Selke votes, Stone 3rd, Marner 10th
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13 sept. 2021 à 22 h 22
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Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
He is better than every single player you mentioned. You can make a case for Point and Barkov, but nobody else.


Rantanen and Stone as well
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