Quoting: BallPuckFellow10
In Barzal's case, he was one year older than Marner when entering the league, was producing at a great level, But not on Marner's. He could have asked for Eichel's contract fairly in my mind. Him and the Islanders opted for a bridge deal in the end which obviously is why his cap hit ($7M) is significantly lower than Marner's. Their offensive input was pretty similar, however, Marner was already starting to get some defensive responsibilities, while Barzal to this day hasn't been trusted with any defensive responsibilities at all. The Islanders could at the negations point to Barzal not being close to Marner in terms of two-way ability which most likely why Barzal didn't get an extension in the Marner range right away. They probably want to know that his production offensively would match the top players in the league before throwing that kind of money at him.
In Point's case, he was also 1 year older than Marner when entering the league. Just like Barzal, he managed to put up some great numbers on his ELC, but not on Marner's level ppg wise. He got a big role on the PK in his 2nd season in the league being Tampa's most used forward short handed, but didn't play that role at all in the following year. Point elected to sign a bridge deal, which obviously helped the cap strangled Lightning at the time. He was worth just as much money as Marner in my opinion, his production was a little worse, however his underlying number were great, he had shown to be a good two-way player, being a goal scorer while also playing centre. He did Tampa such a favor by taking the deal that he did. He elected to ''help the team'' and take an EXTREMELY cheap contract compared to his value. I don't think you can look down on Marner for not doing the same, but that is only my opinion.
Rantanen was also a year older than Marner when entering the league. His production on his ELC was also great, but not on Marner's level. He wasn't a two-way player at all with his underlying defensive numbers being pretty bad at the time. he signed a six year extension just like Marner, but his cap hit was ''only'' $9.25M compared to Marner's $10.9M. The difference between the two players at the time wasn't that big at all, but I will have to say that I think Marner still should have been paid more than Rantanen as he scored at a higher clip, while also being a better two-way player.
From the information I have found (correct me if I am wrong), there are only 7 players that have scored at a higher pace than Marner when being on their ELC's. Those players in PPG order are Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, McDavid, Bäckström, Matthews, Stamkos and Kane. The first five names where all above a point per game during their ELC's while Matthews (0.97 PPG), Stamkos (0.95 PPG), Kane (0.94 PPG) and Marner (0.93 PPG) were just shy of that. This just goes to show what elite company Marner is in production wise. Comparing Marner to Matthews, Stamkos and Kane, the only player together with Marner that had seen some defensive responsibilities in addition to be tasked with scoring point was Stamkos. He was Tampa's 9th most used forward on the PK, but averaged more than a minute a night short handed during his second year in the league. That responsibility disappeared in his 3rd season. At such a young age Marner was already getting molded into not only be great offensively like the guys I have mentioned above, he was also developing into a complete two-way player. You can only say that about Crosby and Bäckström on this list. None of the other players are known for their defensive capabilities at all.
Since Marner signed his contract, he has been worth $10.9M in my opinion. He is 10th in PPG and 5th in APG since signing that contract. Out of all the wingers that produce on an elite level, ONLY Brad Marchand is as good and important defensively as Marner is. TODAY, he is on the same level defensively as Bergeron, Couturier, Stone, Kopitar, Barkov, Point and O'Reilly who all are known to be elite two way, but NONE of them produces at the same level offensively. Guys like Pastrnak and Kane are rightfully considered as better offensive players than Marner, but not by much. his PPG pace is close to theirs since he signed the contract, but none of them are even close to being as complete as Marner is. The only forwards I hold above Marner are McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Draisaitl, Crosby, Kucherov, Panarin and Marchand. I think Marner is on par or better than every other forward in league outside of that list if you take his overall production, his defensive capabilities and responsibilities into consideration. He literally does everything except taking face-offs. He plays all situations, heavy usage 5v5, on the PP, on the PK, when protecting the lead, when trying to score a goal, and over time. Of the players I have ranked higher than him, only Marchand does all the same things while producing points at a ridiculous level.
Nobody could have predicted that a global pandemic would hit which would impact the salary cap the way it did. In reality, Marner's contract was going to age really well, as he wasn't worth the money when signing it, but 3 years in he would be worth every single penny. Let's say the salary cap would have continued to rise at the same level it did for the 5 years prior to the 2019-2020 season. It was $69M in 2014-2015 and $81.5M in 2019-2020. that's an increase by $2.5M per year on average. If you would use that average increase by $2.5M per year, the salary cap ceiling for this season would be $86.5M. Nobody would or at least should be complaining that Marner would be paid $10.9M if the ceiling was $86.5M.
Marner is the 5th highest paid forward in the league. I had 9 forwards that are better than him so if Marner would be paid equally to the 10th highest paid forward in the league, he would be paid $9.85M (Seguin is the 10th highest paid forward in the league). By the end of the season I could see him realistically pass both Crosby and Marchand on that list due to their age likely forcing a decline in their play. Being paid equally to your talent level in this league is very rare. A lot of players are over and under paid. Marner who is a top 10 forward in the league in my opinion, is getting paid the 5th highest forward salary in the league. I don't think that is such an overpayment that people seem to be thinking. And even if you as a reader, have Marner as the 13th or 15th best forward in the league, is he really that overpaid? The salary reflects his position in the game compared to his counter parts. It is guys like Benn, Skinner, Voracek, Johansen, Couture and Duchene who are paid like upper echelon players that don't produce at a level that matches their contracts. Marner does produce at a level that matches his contract. Last season he was on pace for 30 goals and 100 points if the season was normal length. The season before, he was on pace for 93 points before the pandemic canceled the finale of the regular season and 3 years ago, the year he had before he signed his contract, he had 26 goals and 94 points in 82 games. I understand that the game is so much more than about points. His underlying numbers prove that he also is an absolute elite two-way player.
Marner has got better in each of his five seasons in the NHL. He is a premier player in this league, and all the slander he gets is so unjustified and based on nothing but air. He is a wonderful hockey player to watch and from everything I have heard and read about him, he seems like an awesome human being as well. People always want fo find someone to blame when things go wrong, but Marner isn't the one to blame. You can rightfully criticize that he hasn't scored a goal in the last two playoff rounds, which I more than anything attribute to bad luck. He has till managed to put up 25 points in 32 play off games which doesn't reflect a complete no-show that people say he is in the post-season. It is not his fault alone that the Leafs haven't been able to get it done since they became a team people regard as a contender. The blame should be distributed equally among the core players we have. Prior to Keefe becoming the head coach, the blame should be on Mike Babcock's inability to coach in the series against Boston. Since Keefe took over, he has empowered the players and put his faith in them which is 100% the right thing to do. Against Columbus we ran into two goalies that had a combined SV% of 95.2%. I don't know what you can do against that, it is just absolutely insane. Against MTL, Matthews and Marner were the only core players that didn't produce to an expected level. They drove play like they always do, but couldn't put the puck in the net enough. I don't know how to react to that. Logically, they will at some point have to regress to the mean, which means that their point production in the post season will have to start matching their dominance. I am confident it will, and that this whole Marner being overrated and overpaid discussion can be put to bed so we can simply sit back and enjoy his fantastic work like we do with so many other star players in the league.
Marner is great (during the regular season) but I think you’re overrating him a bit. He’s not a top 10 forward in the league. Stone , pettersson , oreilly, Rantanen, Couturier, Point, Bergeron , Barkov are clearly better than Marner.