Today, I want to discuss if Mitch Marner is overpaid as that has been the narrative surrounding him since he signed his big contract pretty much exactly two years ago. $10.9M for what he had done during his ELC was most likely an overpayment. In 241 games he had 224 points. He was driving play on the ice at even strength and had also started to dip his toe into being a more defensively responsible player, earning minutes on the penalty kill and key defensive situations.

It was really hard to find a good contract comparable for a player that had produced at a similar rate at that young age. You can't compare Pastrnak, Draisaitl, Ehlers, Connor, Tkachuk and Nylander's contracts with Marner's since he had produced at a much higher rate than them over his ELC. It was frankly, not even close with them. The players that could be compared to Marner production wise on their ELC's would be Point, Rantanen and Barzal. Marner had a higher ppg than all those players but they were at least around his ballpark production wise. Eichel is weird, as he is paid in the Marner range, but wasn't close to Marner in production at all when signing that contract. Obviously Buffalo knew what they had in Eichel and that he would be worth $10M per season possibly as soon as the season after he signed that contract.

In Barzal's case, he was one year older than Marner when entering the league, was producing at a great level, But not on Marner's. He could have asked for Eichel's contract fairly in my mind. Him and the Islanders opted for a bridge deal in the end which obviously is why his cap hit ($7M) is significantly lower than Marner's. Their offensive input was pretty similar, however, Marner was already starting to get some defensive responsibilities, while Barzal to this day hasn't been trusted with any defensive responsibilities at all. The Islanders could at the negations point to Barzal not being close to Marner in terms of two-way ability which most likely why Barzal didn't get an extension in the Marner range right away. They probably want to know that his production offensively would match the top players in the league before throwing that kind of money at him.

In Point's case, he was also 1 year older than Marner when entering the league. Just like Barzal, he managed to put up some great numbers on his ELC, but not on Marner's level ppg wise. He got a big role on the PK in his 2nd season in the league being Tampa's most used forward short handed, but didn't play that role at all in the following year. Point elected to sign a bridge deal, which obviously helped the cap strangled Lightning at the time. He was worth just as much money as Marner in my opinion, his production was a little worse, however his underlying number were great, he had shown to be a good two-way player, being a goal scorer while also playing centre. He did Tampa such a favor by taking the deal that he did. He elected to ''help the team'' and take an EXTREMELY cheap contract compared to his value. I don't think you can look down on Marner for not doing the same, but that is only my opinion.

Rantanen was also a year older than Marner when entering the league. His production on his ELC was also great, but not on Marner's level. He wasn't a two-way player at all with his underlying defensive numbers being pretty bad at the time. he signed a six year extension just like Marner, but his cap hit was ''only'' $9.25M compared to Marner's $10.9M. The difference between the two players at the time wasn't that big at all, but I will have to say that I think Marner still should have been paid more than Rantanen as he scored at a higher clip, while also being a better two-way player.

From the information I have found (correct me if I am wrong), there are only 7 players that have scored at a higher pace than Marner when being on their ELC's. Those players in PPG order are Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, McDavid, Bäckström, Matthews, Stamkos and Kane. The first five names where all above a point per game during their ELC's while Matthews (0.97 PPG), Stamkos (0.95 PPG), Kane (0.94 PPG) and Marner (0.93 PPG) were just shy of that. This just goes to show what elite company Marner is in production wise. Comparing Marner to Matthews, Stamkos and Kane, the only player together with Marner that had seen some defensive responsibilities in addition to be tasked with scoring point was Stamkos. He was Tampa's 9th most used forward on the PK, but averaged more than a minute a night short handed during his second year in the league. That responsibility disappeared in his 3rd season. At such a young age Marner was already getting molded into not only be great offensively like the guys I have mentioned above, he was also developing into a complete two-way player. You can only say that about Crosby and Bäckström on this list. None of the other players are known for their defensive capabilities at all.

Since Marner signed his contract, he has been worth $10.9M in my opinion. He is 10th in PPG and 5th in APG since signing that contract. Out of all the wingers that produce on an elite level, ONLY Brad Marchand is as good and important defensively as Marner is. TODAY, he is on the same level defensively as Bergeron, Couturier, Stone, Kopitar, Barkov, Point and O'Reilly who all are known to be elite two way, but NONE of them produces at the same level offensively. Guys like Pastrnak and Kane are rightfully considered as better offensive players than Marner, but not by much. his PPG pace is close to theirs since he signed the contract, but none of them are even close to being as complete as Marner is. The only forwards I hold above Marner are McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Draisaitl, Crosby, Kucherov, Panarin and Marchand. I think Marner is on par or better than every other forward in league outside of that list if you take his overall production, his defensive capabilities and responsibilities into consideration. He literally does everything except taking face-offs. He plays all situations, heavy usage 5v5, on the PP, on the PK, when protecting the lead, when trying to score a goal, and over time. Of the players I have ranked higher than him, only Marchand does all the same things while producing points at a ridiculous level.

Nobody could have predicted that a global pandemic would hit which would impact the salary cap the way it did. In reality, Marner's contract was going to age really well, as he wasn't worth the money when signing it, but 3 years in he would be worth every single penny. Let's say the salary cap would have continued to rise at the same level it did for the 5 years prior to the 2019-2020 season. It was $69M in 2014-2015 and $81.5M in 2019-2020. that's an increase by $2.5M per year on average. If you would use that average increase by $2.5M per year, the salary cap ceiling for this season would be $86.5M. Nobody would or at least should be complaining that Marner would be paid $10.9M if the ceiling was $86.5M.

Marner is the 5th highest paid forward in the league. I had 9 forwards that are better than him so if Marner would be paid equally to the 10th highest paid forward in the league, he would be paid $9.85M (Seguin is the 10th highest paid forward in the league). By the end of the season I could see him realistically pass both Crosby and Marchand on that list due to their age likely forcing a decline in their play. Being paid equally to your talent level in this league is very rare. A lot of players are over and under paid. Marner who is a top 10 forward in the league in my opinion, is getting paid the 5th highest forward salary in the league. I don't think that is such an overpayment that people seem to be thinking. And even if you as a reader, have Marner as the 13th or 15th best forward in the league, is he really that overpaid? The salary reflects his position in the game compared to his counter parts. It is guys like Benn, Skinner, Voracek, Johansen, Couture and Duchene who are paid like upper echelon players that don't produce at a level that matches their contracts. Marner does produce at a level that matches his contract. Last season he was on pace for 30 goals and 100 points if the season was normal length. The season before, he was on pace for 93 points before the pandemic canceled the finale of the regular season and 3 years ago, the year he had before he signed his contract, he had 26 goals and 94 points in 82 games. I understand that the game is so much more than about points. His underlying numbers prove that he also is an absolute elite two-way player.

Marner has got better in each of his five seasons in the NHL. He is a premier player in this league, and all the slander he gets is so unjustified and based on nothing but air. He is a wonderful hockey player to watch and from everything I have heard and read about him, he seems like an awesome human being as well. People always want fo find someone to blame when things go wrong, but Marner isn't the one to blame. You can rightfully criticize that he hasn't scored a goal in the last two playoff rounds, which I more than anything attribute to bad luck. He has till managed to put up 25 points in 32 play off games which doesn't reflect a complete no-show that people say he is in the post-season. It is not his fault alone that the Leafs haven't been able to get it done since they became a team people regard as a contender. The blame should be distributed equally among the core players we have. Prior to Keefe becoming the head coach, the blame should be on Mike Babcock's inability to coach in the series against Boston. Since Keefe took over, he has empowered the players and put his faith in them which is 100% the right thing to do. Against Columbus we ran into two goalies that had a combined SV% of 95.2%. I don't know what you can do against that, it is just absolutely insane. Against MTL, Matthews and Marner were the only core players that didn't produce to an expected level. They drove play like they always do, but couldn't put the puck in the net enough. I don't know how to react to that. Logically, they will at some point have to regress to the mean, which means that their point production in the post season will have to start matching their dominance. I am confident it will, and that this whole Marner being overrated and overpaid discussion can be put to bed so we can simply sit back and enjoy his fantastic work like we do with so many other star players in the league.

yes by 3-4M

Oh boy...

Yes he is overpaid. But more important he was not worth that contract as he came over his ELC. That summer Aho was signed an oversheet for 8.45 X 5. Aho and Marner had identical stats for two consecutive leading up to their RFA contract. 9m X 6 was fair...ridiculous Leaf management paid 2m per year too much.

Regular season Marner? Probably not, he's usually pretty amazing there.

Playoffs Marner? Abso-f*cking-lutely.

No, they didn't...

I just have a hard time justifying why he makes more than:
Stone 9.5
Kucherov 9.5
Rantanen 9.25

Yeah, he's overpaid, imo. It's not nearly as big a deal as some people make it out to be, but yeah, he's making a bit more than he should be.

Sorry you didn't look up their stats.....They are so close....actually Aho has more goals. So maybe you're right, Marner should have got less than Aho

1. Aho's ppg over his ELC was way lower than Marner's.
2. Aho's underlying defensive numbers are horrible. He is not a two-way player like Marner is.
3. Aho is arguably underpaid. He could easily justify a $9.5-$10M salary based on his offensive talent.

Saying that Marner = Aho is nonsense. Anyone that would build a franchise from start that could chose between Marner and Aho, would pick Marner. That was true after their ELC's where up and that is true today as well.

Compare Kucherov, Stone and Rantanen's production after their 3 first years in the league with Marner. They were also all older than Marner when entering the league. Only Stone is a two-way player of those guys and his production offensively at the time wasnt even close to Marner's. That is why he is paid more.

Sorry you didn't go back to the summer when both were RFAs. For the two previous their and you could argue their defensive stats were identical. And no Aho could no have justified 9m to 10m, two seasons ago are else he would have got that money. Aho and Marner did not UFA leverage, but for reason Leafs management did not realize this...and overpaid Marner by 2m.

And no Aho ppg were not much lower than Marner's. Last two seasons...Aho 66 goals, Marner 26 goals. Never mind looking at the playoff stats
To say Marner is greater than Aho....just homer nonsense.

First 3 years
Rantanen 230 games 209 points
Kurcherov 211 games 149 points
Marner 241 games 224 points
Then Kurcherov went off. IMO he should be about a 9-9.5AAV
It is what is. I like the player and wish Dubas signed all these guys (Matthews Marner Nylander) before they got to RFA status

As alot of people saying he is somewhere around 9-9.5-10m which I agree on. I think now you take kucherov contract add a bit more to it cuz tax and that what he is so at worst hes overpaid by 1.2m. but he's also top 5 winger so just be glad he's on the team. We know he's good and can be dominant

Is he overpaid? Yes.

But he is NOT overpaid enough that it should affect if/for how much the leafs trade him.

What are you talking about? Look at Aho's defensive numbers since he entered the league. They have been horrible. He has never been on Marner's level defensively. That is just a pure lie without anything credible to back it up with. Aho ppg during his ELC: 242G, 197PTS, 0.81PPG. Marner during his ELC: 241G, 224PTS, 0.93PPG, much better production than Aho. Aho's ppg last 2 seasons: 124GP, 123PTS, 0.99PPG. Marner last 2 seasons: 114GP, 134PTS, 1.18PPG. Marner's number are much better than Aho's both after their ELC expired and the two seasons after their extensions. Don't ever say that they are similar again. Marner scores more points, plays much better defense and is clearly on a Level above Aho.

He had just seen Eichel get $10M and had produced much better than him. Yes, Eichel is a centre, but Marner is an all action winger. Eichel, doesn't kill penalties or step on the ice when Buffalo tries to defend a lead, Marner does. He scores at a better rate than Eichel, plays in more situations than Eichel and frankly is a better player than Eichel. Only thing he has over Marner is that he takes face-offs. Why would Marner take less than him?

As for Rantanen, I think everyone that knows hockey know that Marner's value > Rantanen. Rantanen is a better goalscorer and that is it. Marner is better at every other aspect of the game. If you want to take the Kucherov example, say Marner bridged just like Kucherov did for 3 years. Year 1 of the bridge contract he is on pace for 93 points (season shorthand due to COVID), Year 2 he has a 100 point pace in a 56 game season with a pace of 30 goals as well. Year 3 of the bridge, which would be this year he could very well hit 100+ points while being a player playing in all situations unlike both Rantanen and Kucherov. He could have potentially asked for $12M after this season without being out of place. There are only two wingers in the game that does what Marner does, him and Marchand, that's the list. He is worth his contract 100% today.

Like how you included the first year of Aho's ELC, which is kinda meaningless. The next two seasons before RFA...indentical stats. What a silly PPG comparison. Yeah Marner is little better, but Aho has 66 goals to Marner's 26. Just your subjective opinion about Aho being an inferior defensive players. Sorry, the homerism logic doesn't make Marner a 2.5m better player, or even a better player period.
Noticed how you didn't include Aho's fine stats during the playoffs, compared to Marner's middling numbers.

I definitely think your in the minority on thinking Marner is the superior player over Rantanen. I would take him over Marner if I had a choice. I guess where I see the difference between Marner, Rantanen, and Kurcherov, is playoff success.
Marner: 32 games 25 points (0 goals in last 18 games)
Rantanen: 43 games 52 points
Kurcherov: 113 games 127
If you wanna consider him and Marner deserving of being paid 10.9 AAV you have to be elite in the playoffs. And he’s been God awful. I’m happy he is a Leafs but he is overpaid by 2mil (splitting hairs but that 2mil for a Cap team is huge). And until he proves that in the playoffs, he is not worth that contract. IMO

What are you talking about? Of course I am including Aho's first year, just like I am including Marner's first year. I was comparing their cap hits coming of their ELC's, Marner had done more than Aho which is why he deserved a bigger contract. I can't understand how this is so hard to get through your head. Homerism? Like seriously? Aho is a fantastic hockey player, but he is not on Mitch Marner's level at all. Nobody thinks that but you.

Don't know why there is so much homerism for Marner. He certainly isn't worth near 11m compared to Aho's 8.5m
Last two seasons
Aho. 124 games 62 goals, 61 assists, 133 points , plus 26, Playoffs. 19 games. 9 goals. 14 assists. 23 points plus 11
Marner 114. games 26 goals 98 assists 134 points plus 27 Playoffs 11 games 0 goals . 4 assists 4 points plus 0

In what world is Marner the superior player?

If you are building a team and you can pick Marner or Rantanen, who are you picking? I am picking Marner without a question. Why? Because he is better at all aspects of the game except scoring goals compared to Rantanen. I love to watch Mikko play, but he doesn't do a lot of the stuff Marner does. He is 2nd best two-way winger in the league that has scored at 93+ point pace for the last 3 seasons while he was on pace for 30 goals and 100 points last season. I don't think the general viewer of the game actually understands how good he is because he plays with 34. I am not saying that Marner is a better player than Kucherov, I am just asking you to take a look at their stats 5 years into their careers and compare their ppg. Marner's stats are > Kucherov and Rantanen. I don't think you can define Marner because of his ''lack'' of production in the post season. He is still playing so well and creating chances, driving play, it is honestly crazy he hasn't been able to score. At some point the goals are going to come and people can finally get of his back.

Marner is this good at 24, imagine what he is going to be at 28 when he reaches Kucherov's age, it is actually quite scary to think about. He is the furthest thing from god awful in the playoffs. Just because the puck didn't go in, it doesn't neglect his whole performance. I think that is a very ignorant view of the game. He is paid what he deserves to be paid today.

I don't understand what you are trying to show here you completely failed to represent the stats in an easy way to read. I am going to break it down for you.

Aho on his ELC which earned him his $8,460,250 contract:
242 games, 83 goals, 114 assists, 197 points, 0.81 points per game. 15 playoff games, 5 playoff goals, 7 playoff assists, 12 playoff points, 0.80 playoff points per game. Combined 257 games, 209 points, 0.81 points per game.
- Really impressive stats, offensively gifted, but his defensive metrics are absolutely terrible. You can look at JFresh, Evolving-Hockey and Dom luszczyszyn's models, they will back that up.

Marner on his ELC which earned him his $10,903,00 contract:
241 games, 67 goals, 157 assists, 224 points, 0.93 points per game. 20 playoff games, 5 playoff goals, 12 playoff assists, 17 playoff points, 0.85 playoff points per game. Combined 261 games, 241 points, 0.92 points per game.
- Marner obviously has the better 3 years during their ELC's which FAIRLY awards him a bigger contracts than Aho. Not only is he scoring more points in both the regular season and in the playoffs per game, he is also a MUCH greater defensive player with his defensive impact sky rocketing in his final year of his ELC. All this is backed by JFresh, Evolving-Hockey and Dom luszczyszyn's models.

Aho after he signed his contract:
124 games, 62 goals, 61 assists, 123 points, 0.99 points per game. 19 playoff games, 9 playoff goals, 14 play off assists, 23 playoff points, 1.21 playoff points per game. Combined 143 games, 146 points, 1.02 points per game pace.
- Just like earlier, really impressive stats, especially goalscoring. Defensive liability still that is backed up by JFresh, Evolving-Hockey and Dom luszczyszyn's models. Unreal in the playoffs.

Marner after he signed his contract:
114 games, 36 goals, 98 assists, 134 points, 1.18 points per game. 12 playoff games, 0 playoff goals, 8 playoff assists, 8 playoff points, 0.67 playoff points per game. Combined, 126 games, 142 points, 1.13 points per game.
- Marner has really come into his own now. He is scoring at an elite pace while being one of the most defensively responsible players in the league getting the keys to both the Leafs power play and penalty kill. Obviously on an other level to Aho.

Overall Aho stats:
400 games, 159 goals, 196 assists, 355 points, 0.89 points per game.

Overall Marner stats:
387 games, 108 goals, 275 assists, 383 points, 0.99 points per game.

Conclusion:
Marner was more productive during their ELC which rightfully award him a higher contract. He scores more points than Aho, he plays more minutes than Aho, he is much better defensively than Aho, and has now developed into becoming the 2nd best two-way winger in the league. Aho is a phenomenal player, but this breakdown, plus the eye test, plus the analytical models have Marner as the better and more complete player compared to Aho. Still I am the homer in this discussion? I have just destroyed your argument with facts that prove my points, while you only have subjectivity to prove your point. Fight another battle, this isn't the one you are going to win my friend.

Goals reign supreme in the NHL. Which makes sense, when you consider that putting the puck in the net is the object of the game – while players who get you there are definitely valuable, those that you can rely on to score goals will get the most money. Shots, unsurprisingly, are the next most valuable trait. Assists, which are Marner’s bread and butter, are a tier below, and modern underlying metrics a level below that (which, give the multiple layers to them, does make sense).
Which is why I would choose Rantanen over Marner.
Tavares’s $11-million AAV set an internal bar Matthews had to clear. Then Marner needed to be in Matthews’ ballpark. He was sent back down to junior, and the Leafs were very blunt about why he was sent to junior. He didn’t get the full [Schedule B] bonuses in his first contract, Babcock throw him under the bus, and Mitch’s dad is a noodle.

The best comparable is Patrick Kane. Kane signed his contract midway through the 2009/10 season, he had 144 points in the two seasons prior, and that year, finished with 88 points and a Stanley Cup. Kane finished his first three years with 76 goals, 154 assists, and 230 points in 244 games. Marner finished his with 67 goals, 157 assists, and 224 points. Adjusting for era, Marner’s points increase to 232, while Kane’s increase to 244. Kane received five years at $6.3 million per year, for a cap percentage of 11.09%. This is in line with the averaged-out look above.
A cap percentage of 11%, under an $83 million salary cap in 2019/20, would afford Marner a baseline cap hit of $9.13 million on a six-year deal.

Love that Marner is a Leaf, he is over paid dude

Marner is 1.3mill overpaid against the cap but if we look multiple factors including Canadian taxes one could argue why it was done through his representatives perspective

Here is an example between Marner the closest comparable's in Rantanen and Kucherov once respected taxes are applied. Made it as simple as possible as yes one could include living expenses, tax cuts and all that lovely stuff but reality is often the number is either slightly higher or lower.

Mitch Marner

Cap Hit/Salary: $10,893,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,097,129 (53.5% Tax Rate Ontario 2021)

Mikko Rantanen

Cap Hit/Salary: $9,250,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,215,848 (43.61% Tax Rate Colorado 2021)

Nikita Kucherov

Cap Hit/Salary: $9,500,000

After Tax Earnings: $5,795,174 (39% Tax Rate Florida 2021)

Now if we apply these same cap hits to Ontario's tax system

Marner would have made between $4,333,620-$4,449,796 if his cap hit was between 9.25-9.5m

So in the end Marner is taking home less thanks to Canadian taxes.

In general Canadian teams no matter where they are often have to overpay their talent or free agents they bring in. It sucks but when you factor in taxes and other factors it makes sense. And its not just hockey that this is seen, basketball and baseball players in Canada often have higher cap hits. Examples include Blue Jays bringing in Springer and giving him 25mill a year vs. in the US he was being offered 17-18mill.

Anyways the whole Marner overpaid thing is a tiresome dialogue that is just people crying away at how much a guy is making. Be thankful that he is still young and a potential 100point player as it could be worse look at Buffalo and Skinner. My advice move on as sooner or later someone worse than Marner will be making more once the cap starts going up