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My estimates for possible petey contracts

Créé par: The_Rocket
Équipe: 2021-22 Canucks de Vancouver
Date de création initiale: 31 août 2021
Publié: 31 août 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
I made a contract estimator on excel and ran different scenarios for what Pettersson’s contract might look like on different terms. Here are my assumptions:

A 3 year deal is 7.25 million AAV based on Barzal comparable + a little bit more due to Pettersson’s status and reputation.

UFA years (years 5-8 of any contract he signs) are worth $11.5 million per year in future dollars. That’s around ~$10.5 million in today’s dollars. I used players like draisaitl, point, Tavares, toews, courtourier, kopitar, and eichel to derive this number. His UFA years could be more expensive depending on inflation and how close to those players he and the Canucks believes he will be when he is 26 years old.

To estimate salary cap increase, I used 2 calculations. One assumes a 3% increase per year, the other assumes a flat $1 million increase per year. I estimate out 4 years (to
Pettersson’s first UFA year) to adjust his future dollars into real terms. Then I took the average of the two calculations for my model.

I assumed that Petey’s final RFA year (the 4th season from now) is worth his Qualifying Offer on a 3 year bridge at 7.25 million. The QO would be 120% of the AAV of the bridge deal (assuming backloaded), or $8.4 million. I weighted this value into all calculations of 4 years or more.

Finally, right before posting this, I Ran kaprizov’s rumoured $9x5 contract through the model using all the same assumptions. The only thing I changed was the number of RFA years (kaprizov only has 3 left, compared to Patterson’s 4). If we assume kaprizov is a comparable, then I found his new contract perfectly fits my model when adjusting for RFA years remaining.

So I plugged in all the different term options and here are my results.

Please note that my assumptions are based on a known value of a 3 year deal, so I’m not able to use the model to calculate 1 or 2 year deals.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
89 600 000 $
CRÉÉANSCAP HIT
Pettersson, Elias
79 300 000 $
Pettersson, Elias
68 900 000 $
Pettersson, Elias
58 400 000 $
Pettersson, Elias
47 600 000 $
Pettersson, Elias
37 250 000 $
Rachats de contrats
Frais appliqués
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2022
Logo de VAN
Logo de WPG
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
2023
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
2024
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
Logo de VAN
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
681 500 000 $55 283 992 $648 780 $0 $26 216 008 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
9 600 000 $9 600 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 3
Pettersson, Elias
9 300 000 $9 300 000 $
Pettersson, Elias
8 900 000 $8 900 000 $
Pettersson, Elias
8 400 000 $8 400 000 $
Pettersson, Elias
7 600 000 $7 600 000 $
Pettersson, Elias
7 250 000 $7 250 000 $
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
5 250 000 $5 250 000 $
C, AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
4 125 000 $4 125 000 $
C
UFA - 2
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
4 950 000 $4 950 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 5
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
3 250 000 $3 250 000 $
AG
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
2 650 000 $2 650 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 3
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
5 875 000 $5 875 000 $
AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
1 125 000 $1 125 000 $
AD, C
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
825 000 $825 000 $
AD, C
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
1 225 000 $1 225 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
891 667 $891 667 $ (Bonis de performance200 000 $$200K)
AG, AD
RFA - 2
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
750 000 $750 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 2
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
750 000 $750 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
725 000 $725 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
7 260 000 $7 260 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
DG
RFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
800 000 $800 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
750 000 $750 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
2 500 000 $2 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 4
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
G
UFA - 5
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
1 500 000 $1 500 000 $ (Bonis de performance1 500 000 $$2M)
G
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
850 000 $850 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
750 000 $750 000 $
AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 2

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31 août 2021 à 15 h 51
#1
MK458
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Nice work! I don't think Pettersson and his camp are all that interested in 7 or 8 year deals. Which is understandable seeing as salary cap projections could rise in a few years
The_Rocket et remowilliams a aimé ceci.
31 août 2021 à 16 h 1
#2
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Nice job, appreciate the work.

With these numbers, it may be advantageous for the team to lock him up longer term. Although I'm sure Pettersson would prefer shorter term. If the number for Pettersson after a bridge is close to 11M (which is very well could be) it might make more sense to push extra hard for the extra term even with the flat cap.

I think between the two, Hughes is more likely to go long term.
The_Rocket a aimé ceci.
31 août 2021 à 16 h 7
#3
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Judd Bracket ripoff
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Quoting: mk458
Nice work! I don't think Pettersson and his camp are all that interested in 7 or 8 year deals. Which is understandable seeing as salary cap projections could rise in a few years


Quoting: Canucks33
Nice job, appreciate the work.

With these numbers, it may be advantageous for the team to lock him up longer term. Although I'm sure Pettersson would prefer shorter term. If the number for Pettersson after a bridge is close to 11M (which is very well could be) it might make more sense to push extra hard for the extra term even with the flat cap.

I think between the two, Hughes is more likely to go long term.


Thanks! I had some time to kill so I threw this together. Ultimately I think petey will sign a bridge and bet on himself. If he can become a mackinnon/draisaitl/Matthews level player, he will be kicking himself for signing long term. If he stays where he’s at, we will still likely walk into a 10+ million AAV on his next deal. His only risk is regression, which seems quite unlikely with him.

Canucks should be really trying to go hard on an 8 year deal. A $10 million x 8 year contract should be on the table for sure
mk458 a aimé ceci.
31 août 2021 à 19 h 32
#4
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nice work.I think your bang on.Any guesses on when they may put ink on paper?
31 août 2021 à 19 h 37
#5
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Judd Bracket ripoff
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Quoting: remowilliams
nice work.I think your bang on.Any guesses on when they may put ink on paper?


No clue unfortunately. Huge decision for Pettersson on what term he should take. If I was him, I would be shooting for 4 years. Walks him straight to UFA and gives him the opportunity to outperform projections. If the Canucks have regular playoff success and he breaks a point per game every year, he would have out played the projections in my model.

If I’m the Canucks, I’m trying to 8 years as best I can and lock him up

It’s going to be interesting to see what the outcome is
remowilliams a aimé ceci.
 
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