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Carolina Hurricanes signed Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1 Year / $6,100,035 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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30 août 2021 à 7 h 33
#126
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Quoting: CSStrowbridge
He's a UFA, unless he's given a qualifying offer that is at least as much as this year's contract. No way. Not worth it.


Whoever gets him (whether that’s Montréal or Carolina) is willing to pay him $6.1 million this year just to have him. Why on earth would they not be willing to pay that money next year when he’s a year older and better?
30 août 2021 à 8 h 34
#127
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I hope this isn’t just revenge for the Aho offer sheet, because that would be bad management. According to Pierre LeBrun they did try to trade for him, and I think Dundon’s too smart to spend $6M just to make a point, so I’m going to review this like it was a legitimate hockey move.

Kotkaniemi is obviously worth nowhere near $6M today, but as a 3rd overall draft pick who just turned 21, he may still have a good upside. We often see high draft picks who struggle early in their career only to thrive after a change of scenery, so it doesn’t seem totally crazy to roll the dice on him for what should be a late 1st and 3rd round pick. It’s only a 1-year contract so if he doesn’t show enough improvement then they can simply let him go without a qualifying offer, and they will have given up a 1st and 3rd for a 1-year rental. If he does grow into his salary, which I think is unlikely but not impossible, then they have a valuable asset for years to come or a tradeable commodity. The only down side I can see for Carolina (other than giving up the opportunity to spend the $6M on somebody better) is if they regress this year and the 1st round pick turns out to be much higher than expected.

Nearly all offer sheets are matched, so if you really want the player then you need to give the team that owns his rights a good reason not to match. The Canadiens offer sheet on Aho made no sense, because they didn’t overpay on the AAV, and although they devalued him by signing him for only 5 years the compensation was something Carolina would never have considered trading him for, so matching was an easy decision. The Hurricanes have done a much better job in that respect. By offering the player more than double what he appears to be worth now, the Canadiens have to think seriously about the cap hit. I think they can afford it with Weber going on LTIR, but they could spend it on somebody else. The inflated salary makes the compensation better too, though if it’s true that Carolina tried to trade for him then presumably they already offered at least the 1st and 3rd round picks, since a trade would have saved them from having to pay that crazy salary. The Canadiens may want to match for some of the same reasons that the Hurricanes want him, but if I remember correctly there’s a rule that says that if they match they can’t trade him for a year – a restriction that Carolina wouldn’t have – and to avoid losing him for nothing after that they would need to make him a $6M+ qualifying offer, so Carolina has put Montreal in a position where keeping him seems like more of a gamble than letting him go. That’s what you have to do if you want to have any chance of success with an offer sheet.
30 août 2021 à 9 h 0
#128
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
Whoever gets him (whether that’s Montréal or Carolina) is willing to pay him $6.1 million this year just to have him. Why on earth would they not be willing to pay that money next year when he’s a year older and better?


The $6.1M is deliberately inflated to discourage Montreal from matching. He won't get that much next year unless he has a breakout season. He'll be a year older, but unless he's a lot better he'll be a UFA.
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30 août 2021 à 9 h 45
#129
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Quoting: jr400
The $6.1M is deliberately inflated to discourage Montreal from matching. He won't get that much next year unless he has a breakout season. He'll be a year older, but unless he's a lot better he'll be a UFA.


So you’re saying that Carolina’s plan is to overpay KK for one year and use him as a rental? If that were the case they could get any other rental at the deadline and get more bang for their buck, plus way more cap space.

If Carolina is sincerely trying to acquire Kotkaniemi, it isn’t for one year.
30 août 2021 à 9 h 46
#130
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Well about time someone finally put the screws to MB. Haha love it! Try to make a deal and be fair about it which of course leads nowhere. So offer sheet them like they did to you on Aho. #karma
30 août 2021 à 10 h 40
#131
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
So you’re saying that Carolina’s plan is to overpay KK for one year and use him as a rental?


Yes. This isn't a rational move; it is revenge.

Or perhaps they already have a deal to sign KK to an extension at a much lower rate, in which case Montreal has a case that this isn't an RFA signing, but it is in fact interference and they could get a lot more than a 1st and a 3rd.
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30 août 2021 à 11 h 35
#132
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Quoting: CSStrowbridge
Yes. This isn't a rational move; it is revenge.

Or perhaps they already have a deal to sign KK to an extension at a much lower rate, in which case Montreal has a case that this isn't an RFA signing, but it is in fact interference and they could get a lot more than a 1st and a 3rd.


Revenge yes, but they also tried to trade for him so it's not just them trying to get revenge.

As for the new contract they talked about long term during the offer sheet negotiations. I would assume KK is open to it since I doubt canes would do it if he wasn't
30 août 2021 à 13 h 4
#133
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
So you’re saying that Carolina’s plan is to overpay KK for one year and use him as a rental? If that were the case they could get any other rental at the deadline and get more bang for their buck, plus way more cap space.

If Carolina is sincerely trying to acquire Kotkaniemi, it isn’t for one year.


I think you're right on both. They're willing to overpay him for one year and use him as a rental if that's the way it turns out, but what they're really paying for is the chance that he'll become good enough to actually be worth $6.1M or more in future years. If that happens then they'll qualify him and keep him. I look at it as $2-3M for the salary that he's actually earned for this year and $3-4M to bet on him having a breakout year and becoming a valuable long-term asset. I still voted bad signing because I don't think it's a good bet, but I can see that rationale.

As somebody else pointed out , there's also a third option for Carolina if Montreal doesn't match. They could try to sign him to an extension for less money before this 1-year contract ends. Why would the player do that? Because if they don't qualify him he's not going to get $6.1M as a UFA if he isn't any better than he was with Montreal. In that case it's like the $3-4M above what he should be getting paid this year is part of the acquisition cost along with the two draft picks.
30 août 2021 à 13 h 24
#134
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Quoting: jr400
I think you're right on both. They're willing to overpay him for one year and use him as a rental if that's the way it turns out, but what they're really paying for is the chance that he'll become good enough to actually be worth $6.1M or more in future years. If that happens then they'll qualify him and keep him. I look at it as $2-3M for the salary that he's actually earned for this year and $3-4M to bet on him having a breakout year and becoming a valuable long-term asset. I still voted bad signing because I don't think it's a good bet, but I can see that rationale.

As somebody else pointed out , there's also a third option for Carolina if Montreal doesn't match. They could try to sign him to an extension for less money before this 1-year contract ends. Why would the player do that? Because if they don't qualify him he's not going to get $6.1M as a UFA if he isn't any better than he was with Montreal. In that case it's like the $3-4M above what he should be getting paid this year is part of the acquisition cost along with the two draft picks.


If I’m KK I’d wait it out until next summer no matter what. It’s really unlikely that the Canes/habs don’t qualify him, and even if they do, he’s likely better off going to UFA and having a team bet on his potential than locking up long-term at a lower number.
30 août 2021 à 14 h 24
#135
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
If I’m KK I’d wait it out until next summer no matter what. It’s really unlikely that the Canes/habs don’t qualify him, and even if they do, he’s likely better off going to UFA and having a team bet on his potential than locking up long-term at a lower number.


If they qualify him he'll be a RFA, not a UFA, but I don't agree that it's unlikely he won't be qualified. I think it depends entirely on how well he plays this coming season. He needs to get a lot better. A team can manage around overpaying somebody by a few million dollars for one year, but they don't want to keep doing it year after year. I do agree that KK probably has nothing to lose by waiting until next summer though.
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30 août 2021 à 15 h 12
#136
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Quoting: Random2152
2C Jake evans or a desperate overpay for a centre don't sound particularly great as the alternatives my dude.

I think the team just admit they'll be "meh" this year and sign a plug like Bozak or Zajac to a short 1-2 year deal. Draft's in Montreal so that might have some weight.
30 août 2021 à 15 h 14
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Quoting: ColonelX
I think you just admit you'll be "meh" this year and sign a plug like Bozak or Zajac to a short 1-2 year deal. Draft's in Montreal so that might have some weight.


They better not draft another dud in front of their home crowd
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30 août 2021 à 15 h 22
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Quoting: SomethingLeafs
don't think they can since canes had legit interest in KK and a extension is possible (likely imo) so not a rental


If they can rule that Luongos contract wasnt fair 3 years into it and slap the Canucks with penalties, then they can rescind this one (theyve cancelled illegal offer sheets before- Scott Stevens iirc). Not that I expect Bettman to do that, but its possible. Hell they slapped Jersey with a penalty for the Kovalchuk contract, and then waited to the last minute years later to drastically reduce the penalty for no apparent reason (favourtism?)
Its a rental because if they dont qualify KK next year with a raise over 6.1mil.... he can refuse and become a UFA, so unless he becomes a ppg player in Carolina...theyre going to want a discount on the 6.1 million, and he has zero obligations to them- if he did- THAT would be an illegal agreement outside the CBA. KK could sign anywhere he wants in a year, at that age...that is an amazing outcome, on top of the extra 3- 4million he gets this year that he doesnt deserve.
30 août 2021 à 16 h 56
#139
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A late first round draft pick for MB will just be another dud of a selection haha if he doesn't match it. Zero center depth behind Suzuki... yikes
30 août 2021 à 18 h 29
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Whom ever gets to keep KK is basically agreeing to 24.4 mil over four years and then loose him to free agency, one year and loose him to free agency or anything in between. There is no incentive for KK to sign anything less. Anything longer will take that into account. If his team does not want to pay he will go to free agency and see what the highest bidder pays for the young guy. KK is not going to take less anywhere but the open market.
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30 août 2021 à 20 h 52
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Modifié 30 août 2021 à 20 h 57
He'll take this to arbitration next summer, rather than sign a new (cheaper) deal in January.

Obviously in an arbitration case, the mediator will see the $6.1 Q.O. and side with KK's agent.

Both the Habs and Canes will be a fool.

Only solution is to cut him loose after 1 season and make him an UFA.

Or trade him after the season to a small market with lots of cap space at a discounted trade rate.

In all scenerio's the team loses and KK's wins.
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30 août 2021 à 22 h 4
#142
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That kind of money for so little production? Really? Has the look and feel of fat cat potential.
31 août 2021 à 0 h 59
#143
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GMs should know (and owners - Dundon cough-cough) you inject the vaxx, not snort it!
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31 août 2021 à 12 h 22
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
He'll take this to arbitration next summer, rather than sign a new (cheaper) deal in January.

Obviously in an arbitration case, the mediator will see the $6.1 Q.O. and side with KK's agent.

Both the Habs and Canes will be a fool.

Only solution is to cut him loose after 1 season and make him an UFA.

Or trade him after the season to a small market with lots of cap space at a discounted trade rate.

In all scenerio's the team loses and KK's wins.


What? The arbitration case has nothing to do with his QO. By the time arbitration rolls around, his QO will have expired, and the only thing that will influence how much money he gets is his play on the ice.

Hence why Laine accepted his QO immediately rather than going to arbitration this year, because if he went to arbitration he could stand to make less money.
31 août 2021 à 20 h 40
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
What? The arbitration case has nothing to do with his QO. By the time arbitration rolls around, his QO will have expired, and the only thing that will influence how much money he gets is his play on the ice.

Hence why Laine accepted his QO immediately rather than going to arbitration this year, because if he went to arbitration he could stand to make less money.


How exactly does it work with qualifying offers and arbitration? In a normal off-season, the team must make a qualifying offer before July 1 or the player becomes a UFA. If he becomes a UFA there is no arbitration so if it goes to arbitration there must have been a qualifying offer. How long does the player have to accept the QO? He must have to decide before the arbitration hearing because if he’s going to accept the QO then there’s no need for arbitration, so I assume that’s what you mean by his QO will have expired by then.

Now correct me if I’m wrong, but my understanding of the way arbitration works is that the player and the team each submit what they think is a fair salary for a 1-year contract, and the arbitrator picks one or the other. The arbitrator can’t just come up with a number on his own. Arbitration hearings normally happen in late July or August, so although the QO may be off the table by then, if the team goes into arbitration with a number lower than the QO I think it would be very difficult for them to argue that the player’s value has dropped significantly in only a few weeks. I know the arbitrator is supposed to use existing contracts of comparable players to determine the player’s value, but given that the team has already tendered a qualifying offer demonstrating their willingness to pay him that amount, I’d think the arbitrator would figure he must be worth at least that much otherwise he wouldn’t have been given a QO. So if the team that gets him now is hoping to keep him for less than $6.1M beyond next summer, their best chance is to try to extend him before they have to qualify him. It seems unlikely he'll agree to that, but there's no guarantee he'll get $6.1M if he waits until next summer because there's no guarantee he'll get a QO.
31 août 2021 à 22 h 26
#146
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Quoting: jr400
How exactly does it work with qualifying offers and arbitration? In a normal off-season, the team must make a qualifying offer before July 1 or the player becomes a UFA. If he becomes a UFA there is no arbitration so if it goes to arbitration there must have been a qualifying offer. How long does the player have to accept the QO? He must have to decide before the arbitration hearing because if he’s going to accept the QO then there’s no need for arbitration, so I assume that’s what you mean by his QO will have expired by then.

Now correct me if I’m wrong, but my understanding of the way arbitration works is that the player and the team each submit what they think is a fair salary for a 1-year contract, and the arbitrator picks one or the other. The arbitrator can’t just come up with a number on his own. Arbitration hearings normally happen in late July or August, so although the QO may be off the table by then, if the team goes into arbitration with a number lower than the QO I think it would be very difficult for them to argue that the player’s value has dropped significantly in only a few weeks. I know the arbitrator is supposed to use existing contracts of comparable players to determine the player’s value, but given that the team has already tendered a qualifying offer demonstrating their willingness to pay him that amount, I’d think the arbitrator would figure he must be worth at least that much otherwise he wouldn’t have been given a QO. So if the team that gets him now is hoping to keep him for less than $6.1M beyond next summer, their best chance is to try to extend him before they have to qualify him. It seems unlikely he'll agree to that, but there's no guarantee he'll get $6.1M if he waits until next summer because there's no guarantee he'll get a QO.


So to keep the rights to a player, they need to receive a qualifying offer before June 25th at 5:00 pm.

The player has until a certain date* to accept the qualifying offer, and if it isn’t accepted by then, then the offer is no longer on the table.

*I can’t remember the exact date, but I know for sure that it’s before anyone’s arbitration hearing.

The player and team usually come in with a salary figure for each side, with the player arguing high and the team arguing low. The arbitrator chooses the salary for the player based on comparables, and what the player should get, based on arguments made in the hearing. The resulting contract is always in between those 2 numbers.

So in Kotkaniemi’s case he’s going to accept his qualifying offer unless he has a season where he thinks there’s a really good chance he could get more than $6.1 million. If he has a $4 million season, then that’s likely what he’d get in arbitration.
2 sept. 2021 à 10 h 16
#147
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If you look at the Casey Mittelstadt signing of $2.5M/yr for 3 years, he is virtually a clone of Jesperi Kotkaniemi. So nearly a $4M overpay for this offer sheet. Whichever team ends up with this contract is foolish.

Also, 61 probably refers to Ryan Suzuki (that is his number in Carolina). I'd bet Bergevin wanted him, but the asking price from Wadell was Kotkaniemi...
2 sept. 2021 à 10 h 59
#148
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Quoting: triggerman
If you look at the Casey Mittelstadt signing of $2.5M/yr for 3 years, he is virtually a clone of Jesperi Kotkaniemi. So nearly a $4M overpay for this offer sheet. Whichever team ends up with this contract is foolish.

Also, 61 probably refers to Ryan Suzuki (that is his number in Carolina). I'd bet Bergevin wanted him, but the asking price from Wadell was Kotkaniemi...


That’s a bit of a reach. $6.1 million refers to the highest cap hit that the Canes can give without moving into the next level of compensation. (rounded to the nearest hundred thousand dollars)
3 sept. 2021 à 8 h 16
#149
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
So to keep the rights to a player, they need to receive a qualifying offer before June 25th at 5:00 pm.

The player has until a certain date* to accept the qualifying offer, and if it isn’t accepted by then, then the offer is no longer on the table.

*I can’t remember the exact date, but I know for sure that it’s before anyone’s arbitration hearing.

The player and team usually come in with a salary figure for each side, with the player arguing high and the team arguing low. The arbitrator chooses the salary for the player based on comparables, and what the player should get, based on arguments made in the hearing. The resulting contract is always in between those 2 numbers.

So in Kotkaniemi’s case he’s going to accept his qualifying offer unless he has a season where he thinks there’s a really good chance he could get more than $6.1 million. If he has a $4 million season, then that’s likely what he’d get in arbitration.


Thanks for clearing that up for me. I didn’t realize that the arbitrator could come up with his own number. I thought he had to pick either the player’s number or the team’s. A lot of arbitration processes work that way because it encourages both parties to come in with a reasonable proposal.

So there is a way for the player to be awarded less than the QO in arbitration, but I still think it would be difficult for the team to convince the arbitrator to do that after they were willing to pay him that much on June 25. Unless the arbitrator has strict instructions as to which information he can and cannot use in making his decision and he is not allowed to consider the fact that a QO was made (even though you can’t get to arbitration without a QO) or how much it was. In any case, it’s unlikely it would ever come to that because as you pointed out, the player will accept the QO if he thinks he’s going to get less in arbitration.
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3 sept. 2021 à 8 h 20
#150
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Tomorrow is decision day for the Canadiens and I’m not sure what they’ll do. The fact that they couldn’t work out a trade even though Carolina is willing to overpay to get him means that they value him pretty highly despite his lack of offensive performance to date. (I’m assuming Carolina offered a lot in a trade, because trading for his rights should have enabled them to sign him for a much lower cap hit.) But the fact that they won’t be allowed to trade him before they have to decide whether to qualify him next year means that unless they can sign him to an extension before June 25, they’ll be faced with a choice of either losing him for nothing then or taking on a second year at $6.1M. The safe thing would be to take the draft picks, but Bergevin doesn’t seem like a play-it-safe kind of GM to me, so if I had to make a prediction I’d say he’ll match. If I was running the Hurricanes I wouldn’t have spent $6.1M on him, but as a fan I think I’ll be more disappointed than relieved if Montreal matches. Something made him the 3rd overall draft pick – right after Svechnikov – so it would be interesting to see what he could do in Carolina, and they’ve lost a couple of middle-6 forwards that I’m not sure they have adequate replacements for, so he should help with that even if he doesn't play like a 6 million dollar man.
 
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