SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Armchair-GM

Comparing KK to Couturier

Créé par: Shanesaw9
Équipe: 2021-22 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 19 août 2021
Publié: 19 août 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Both KK and Couturier were top 10 C picks and played in the NHL as rookies (although Couturier would have been 7 months older than KK when he made his NHL debut, so arguably more physically mature).

Both players received some Selke recognition as rookies. Couturier had two 5th place votes and while KK had no votes there were multiple articles about his great defensive metrics as a rookie. Evolving Wild even went as far as saying KK was a front runner in their opinion: https://twitter.com/EvolvingWild/status/1103015749730340864?s=20

Let's look at production & usage over their first three seasons.

Year 1:
- Couturier: 13G, 14A, 27P, 77GP, ATOI = 14:08, P/60 = 1.5
- Kotkaniemi: 11G, 23A, 34P, 79GP, ATOI = 13:44, P/60 = 1.9

KK was a more productive rookie but he had about 5 times the PP icetime as Couturier and 5 PP pts to Couturier's 1, so that helps. Couturier on the other hand was already killing penalties, something MTL's coaching staff still hasn't allowed KK to do for some reason?

Year 2:
- Couturier: 4G, 11A, 15P, 46GP, ATOI = 15:53, P/60 = 1.2
- Kotkaniemi: 6G, 2A, 8P, 36GP, ATOI = 13:00, P/60 = 1.0

The sophomore slump was very real for both players, they each needed AHL stints in which they both produced at about a point per game rate. The noticeable difference is Couturier received more ice time from his coaching staff despite his struggles while KK seen his icetime reduced (he also had some injuries which might have played a part). Couturier also started playing more PP while maintaining his PK role.

Year 3:
- Couturier: 13G, 26A, 39P, 82GP, ATOI = 19:05, P/60 = 1.5
- Kotkaniemi: 5G, 15A, 20P, 56GP, ATOI = 14:48, P/60 = 1.4

So here's where things really start to change. Couturier received an insane amount of icetime in his third season, where KK finally started getting the icetime Couturier was already getting as a rookie. Couturier put up a modest 39 pts in a full 82 game season which is roughly the same P/60 KK had, but he did finish 9th in Selke votes for his strong defensive play. So this is a chicken vs the egg scenerio. What came first Couturier's strong play or the opportunity / icetime? The question I have is if KK was so widely recognized for his strong defensive metrics at 5 v 5 as rookie, why has he never even been tried on the penalty kill before? When he came into the league I remember being impressed by how good his stick was defensively, I see less of that now (I believe the coaches have instructed him to be more physical with his body rather than his stick - there is a place for both). KK was drafted to be an two way 1st line C, but he has not been developed for that role at all so far.

Playoff Production (First 3 Seasons):
- Couturier: 3G, 1A, 4P, 18GP, ATOI = 16:28, P/60 = 0.8
- Kotkaniemi: 9G, 3A, 12P, 29 GP, ATOI = 13:46, P/60 = 1.8

So here we see two different stories. KK has proven that he can elevate his game when required in the playoffs, or rather elevate his game when he is given the opportunity to do so. KK's playoff production was way ahead of Couturier's at the same age yet its Couturier who was trusted more by his coaching staff to the point of almost 3 more minutes per game in average TOI.

Anyways the point of the above comparison is to illustrate the following:

1. KK deserves more opportunity.

2. For all those who want to give up on him: KK is a solid player and still getting better, he didn't turn 21 until this summer so he was closer to a year behind Couterier in age for all of these comparisons. He has room to grow and improve.

3. An excellent contract comparison for KK right now is Couturier. Couturier signed a 2 year bridge deal worth $1.75M after his ELC. Prorated to today, that deal would be worth ~$2M. Couturier didn't really break out offensively for another 3 years after that deal which allowed Philly to sign him to the 6 year bargain he is currently playing under. His $4.333M × 6 year deal prorated to today's salary cap would be worth ~$4.85M × 6 years. Assuming KK follows a similar trajectory that would be a steal for MTL. So I'm advocating for playing KK as the 2nd Line C this upcoming season on a two year bridge deal. I don't expect huge numbers, but 40 to 50 pts while playing solid two way hockey wouldn't be out of the question. Give him PK time in appropriate game situations and start developing him to be the top line C he was drafted to be. Worth remembering that when he was drafted Timmins said they were choosing the player they believed would be the best player years from that day (not necessarily the best player at that moment). If KK could show he can be a 40 to 50 pt guy, then I'd be 100% confident signing him long term going forward knowing that he will only continue to improve as his body matures and he learns more and more defensively.


Anyways, all of the above is just an argument in favour of playing Kotkaniemi as the 2C this season. Suzuki is established as the 1C in MTL already, and there are two strong candidates for 3C in Poehling an Evans. MTL has to give KK the opportunity to be the 2C this year. MTL's wings are solid and so is their goaltending, therefore the only place MTL should be looking to add is D.

Savard will help replace Weber's physicality and defensive play, but he won't be able to bring the offensive upside Weber brought (or at least used to). Wideman is anything but a sure thing, so I would target a RD. I see Colin Miller as a potential Jeff Petry lite... he's a physical two way defenseman and just like Petry in Edmonton, I believe he is just in a bad situation in Buffalo.

I would trade Brook because he requires waivers next year and there isn't going to be a lot of opportunity in MTL for him before then, no use losing another prospect for nothing. If Buffalo isn't interested in Brook I would trade a 2nd for Miller also... but I have to think Brook would intrigue Buffalo more since he is closer to being NHL ready than a 2nd round pick would be.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
22 000 000 $
2750 000 $
Transactions
MTL
  1. Miller, Colin
Détails additionnels:
Gives BUF a controlled RD prospect and allows them to sign someone in free agency.
BUF
  1. Brook, Josh
  2. Choix de 4e ronde en 2022 (TBL)
Rachats de contrats
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2022
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de ANA
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de STL
2023
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
2024
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2381 500 000 $65 912 977 $597 561 $1 475 000 $15 587 023 $

Formation

Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
2 125 000 $2 125 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 3
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance537 500 $$538K)
C
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
880 833 $880 833 $ (Bonis de performance300 000 $$300K)
AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
AG
UFA - 3
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
C
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 6
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
750 000 $750 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 6
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
1 150 000 $1 150 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
750 000 $750 000 $
C
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 4
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
950 000 $950 000 $
AG, AD, C
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
950 000 $950 000 $
C, AG, AD
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
875 000 $875 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
2 343 750 $2 343 750 $
DD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
G
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
1 750 000 $1 750 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Sabres de Buffalo
3 875 000 $3 875 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
2 875 000 $2 875 000 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance637 500 $$638K)
DG
RFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 4
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
925 000 $925 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
7 857 143 $7 857 143 $
DD
UFA - 5
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2

Code d'intégration

  • Pour afficher cette équipe sur un autre site Web ou blog, ajoutez ce iFrame à la page appropriée
  • Personnalisez les dimensions dans le code IFrame ci-dessous pour adapter votre site de manière appropriée. Minimum recommandé: 400px.

Texte intégré

Cliquer pour surligner
19 août 2021 à 17 h 8
#1
I post sometimes
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2017
Messages: 5,632
Mentions "j'aime": 1,617
Good text. (hey at least you got some comments)
Shanesaw9 et gretzkyghosts a aimé ceci.
19 août 2021 à 17 h 15
#2
Former Hockey Fan
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juin 2017
Messages: 13,144
Mentions "j'aime": 10,516
You make solid points. I’m interested to see what his defensive metrics were in seasons 2 and 3, and if his rookie year was a bit of an analytical outlier. I can say that the coaching staff certainly doesn’t see him as a defensive centre, and he definitely won’t be seeing any PK time this season.

Miller is a fine pickup, but you can definitely squeeze some retention out of Buffalo, since he only has one year left.
Shanesaw9 et gretzkyghosts a aimé ceci.
19 août 2021 à 17 h 20
#3
Démarrer sujet
Habs 2010
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: mai 2020
Messages: 1,501
Mentions "j'aime": 930
Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
You make solid points. I’m interested to see what his defensive metrics were in seasons 2 and 3, and if his rookie year was a bit of an analytical outlier. I can say that the coaching staff certainly doesn’t see him as a defensive centre, and he definitely won’t be seeing any PK time this season.

Miller is a fine pickup, but you can definitely squeeze some retention out of Buffalo, since he only has one year left.


His 5v5 numbers definitely dropped off since his rookie season, honestly there is things I seen from KK as a rookie (even just in preseason and early in his rookie season) that I haven't seen consistently since. How much of that has to do with KK and how much of that has to do with the coaches and his development is the question... just seems like he gets no leash from the coaching staff. I don't see KK getting PK time anymore either unfortunately, Evans is a really strong PK'r, Suzuki is proven there as well and so is Poehling. I wouldn't mind seeing KK get some reps in during games when MTL has a comfortable lead though, I think long term KK should be counted on defensively and maybe he can take some of the slack of Suzuki.

Anyways I still believe in taking the patient route with KK, Couturier needed 6 years to break 40 pts in the league and he is now an elite two way C.
19 août 2021 à 17 h 48
#4
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: nov. 2018
Messages: 15,213
Mentions "j'aime": 6,241
Great analysis, some pundits had compared him to Barkov as well but I don't know if he matches up as well as he does with Couturier as outlined above. Regardless, he needs to be given the reins of 2C and allowed to run with it. I think if they play Hoffman and Gally on his wings then he will easily eclipse 60 points this season, I know that many will say doubling his points is ridiculous but given that both Gally and Hoffman are former 30 goal scorers I really don't think it would be much of a stretch. He would only have to see both put up 25 goals and pot 10 himself.
Shanesaw9 et gretzkyghosts a aimé ceci.
19 août 2021 à 18 h 56
#5
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: avr. 2021
Messages: 4,760
Mentions "j'aime": 3,170
This is a beautiful breakdown and I think you're assessment of KK is spot on. I feel that if MTL could add possibly a player like Dvorak without moving too many pieces they could run the opportunity of potentially having a 1A, 1B, 1C scenario and a fourth line that's better than most third lines in the NHL. The Miller add would bridge the gap nicely on the right side although I think a Lyubushkin could also do the same and would package nicely if MTL goes for Dvorak too. Suz 1A, KK 1B, Dvo 1C... that's a solid top 3 core of centremen who would all have good-great wingers to play with...
gretzkyghosts a aimé ceci.
19 août 2021 à 20 h 29
#6
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: janv. 2020
Messages: 8,370
Mentions "j'aime": 2,275
I don't understand this. You're saying both players are elite defensively and then comparing how many points they got? Points aren't the best representation of how good a player's defense is imo.

I know plus minus isn't the best representation of how good a player is but probably a better representation than points. Couturier has had a better plus minus than the rest of his teammates almost every season. The only season where that's true for KK is his rookie season. KK had a very promising rookie season but seems to have stagnated or gotten worse since then.

Couturier was already taking on some of the hardest matchups in the league in his 3rd season. KK didn't play any shutdown role for the Habs. Maybe we'll get to see that with Danault gone?
19 août 2021 à 20 h 59
#7
Go Habs Go
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: mars 2017
Messages: 10,667
Mentions "j'aime": 4,091
Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
I don't understand this. You're saying both players are elite defensively and then comparing how many points they got? Points aren't the best representation of how good a player's defense is imo.

I know plus minus isn't the best representation of how good a player is but probably a better representation than points. Couturier has had a better plus minus than the rest of his teammates almost every season. The only season where that's true for KK is his rookie season. KK had a very promising rookie season but seems to have stagnated or gotten worse since then.

Couturier was already taking on some of the hardest matchups in the league in his 3rd season. KK didn't play any shutdown role for the Habs. Maybe we'll get to see that with Danault gone?


I think it's to add to the argument that KK can be a good 2-way player even if his point totals appear low at present.
There's no accurate way to identify good defense with statistics. You have to extrapolate from the data which is available. Even strength GF/GA with an eye on deployment and possession metrics is about the best we can do. Some zone stats, like controlled entries/exits are out there as well, but how all these can be combined to accurately reflect a player's defensive ability is still a work in progress.

KK is about even in GF/GA, despite favorable deployment and possession. That would seem to indicate he is not strong defensively, but without more data of him playing a more defensive role, that's not a definitive conclusion.

I can tell you he's more physically engaged, taking possession more often, and turning the puck over less.
I can also tell you he has seemed increasingly less inclined to shoot the puck as well.
If he can keep the rest up and put more pucks on net, there's no reason he shouldn't be given opportunity to play and improve on the defensive side of the game.
19 août 2021 à 22 h 9
#8
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: janv. 2020
Messages: 8,370
Mentions "j'aime": 2,275
Quoting: ricochetii
I think it's to add to the argument that KK can be a good 2-way player even if his point totals appear low at present.
There's no accurate way to identify good defense with statistics. You have to extrapolate from the data which is available. Even strength GF/GA with an eye on deployment and possession metrics is about the best we can do. Some zone stats, like controlled entries/exits are out there as well, but how all these can be combined to accurately reflect a player's defensive ability is still a work in progress.

KK is about even in GF/GA, despite favorable deployment and possession. That would seem to indicate he is not strong defensively, but without more data of him playing a more defensive role, that's not a definitive conclusion.

I can tell you he's more physically engaged, taking possession more often, and turning the puck over less.
I can also tell you he has seemed increasingly less inclined to shoot the puck as well.
If he can keep the rest up and put more pucks on net, there's no reason he shouldn't be given opportunity to play and improve on the defensive side of the game.


I agree with you but I think it's a bit of a stretch to compare KK's defense with Couturier's defense. KK might be a good 2 way player one day but his defense is nowhere near what Couturier's was at the same age. It all starts with faceoff percentage Couturier is/was one of the best faceoff takers in the league Kotkaniemi has never averaged 50% in a season (average is about 45% so far).

I predict KK gets 2.5Mx2 so not far off what OP suggested. I just disagree that he's a Selke candidate defensive player.
ricochetii a aimé ceci.
19 août 2021 à 23 h 4
#9
Go Habs Go
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: mars 2017
Messages: 10,667
Mentions "j'aime": 4,091
Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
I agree with you but I think it's a bit of a stretch to compare KK's defense with Couturier's defense. KK might be a good 2 way player one day but his defense is nowhere near what Couturier's was at the same age. It all starts with faceoff percentage Couturier is/was one of the best faceoff takers in the league Kotkaniemi has never averaged 50% in a season (average is about 45% so far).

I predict KK gets 2.5Mx2 so not far off what OP suggested. I just disagree that he's a Selke candidate defensive player.


I don't necessarily agree with the comparison, but I can't refute it as an idea, simply because there isn't enough to indicate whether KK can, or can not, perform in a defensive role.
There may be a reason for that which staff is privy to, but there's no stats for what they see in drills and practice.

I'm not concerned about faceoffs yet. Couturier was sub 50% for his first 5 seasons as well. It's not unusual for young NHL centers.

I do agree that Couturier was the better defensive player however. Evans would be a better comparison with how quickly both players were incorporated into their teams' defense. Can Evans reach that level of production would be the question then.

The Selke thing I don't see either. There's really nothing there to see. If he was clearly dominating possession while on the ice, to the point where goals against were few, I could see it despite not playing a defensive role.
I mean, 2 goals against/60 is better than Bergeron over several years, but Bergeron regularly has a significant goal differential, where KK's was only +4.
So yes, there may be some small indicators if you dig deep and find indications to fit that narrative, but I find it hard to believe the voting committee sees it. Most still stubbornly cling to plus/minus as a highly relevant stat.

I have KK at 2 years @ $2.75M, but either is close enough to what should have already been agreed to.
Shanesaw9 et Leafs_and_Sens_Fan a aimé ceci.
20 août 2021 à 6 h 49
#10
Démarrer sujet
Habs 2010
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: mai 2020
Messages: 1,501
Mentions "j'aime": 930
Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
I don't understand this. You're saying both players are elite defensively and then comparing how many points they got? Points aren't the best representation of how good a player's defense is imo.

I know plus minus isn't the best representation of how good a player is but probably a better representation than points. Couturier has had a better plus minus than the rest of his teammates almost every season. The only season where that's true for KK is his rookie season. KK had a very promising rookie season but seems to have stagnated or gotten worse since then.

Couturier was already taking on some of the hardest matchups in the league in his 3rd season. KK didn't play any shutdown role for the Habs. Maybe we'll get to see that with Danault gone?


Yes the goal of this was more to indicate that it can take a while for big young C before they start to produce offensively. Couturier did not break 40 pts until his 7th NHL season despite playing over 18 minutes a game for 4 of his first 6 seasons. He had a 50 pt pace in 5th year and 42 pt pace in 6th year but didn't crack 40 pts due to injuries. Couturier was at least a top defensive player during that time, and while I'm not saying KK is the same type of player... KK did have indicators he could be a strong defensive player in his rookie season.

It's more just to point out KK's production for his age (7 months younger than Couturier when comparing all these seasons) is normal and that if KK was given a bigger role we would likely see significant progression. No where in the original post did I make a case for KK being a future Selke candidate, I just pointed out the praise he got as a rookie.

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
I agree with you but I think it's a bit of a stretch to compare KK's defense with Couturier's defense. KK might be a good 2 way player one day but his defense is nowhere near what Couturier's was at the same age. It all starts with faceoff percentage Couturier is/was one of the best faceoff takers in the league Kotkaniemi has never averaged 50% in a season (average is about 45% so far).

I predict KK gets 2.5Mx2 so not far off what OP suggested. I just disagree that he's a Selke candidate defensive player.


See this point about facoffs is exactly the point I'm trying to make. Couturier is now a top faceoff guy, but in his first three season he was only 46.8%. KK's is 45.9%. Couturier did not enter the league as an elite faceoff guy or a top offensive center. These things take time, sometimes 5 to 6 years, and that is the only thing I'm trying to point out. Habs fans need to be patient with KK.
20 août 2021 à 12 h 32
#11
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: janv. 2020
Messages: 8,370
Mentions "j'aime": 2,275
Quoting: Shanesaw9
Yes the goal of this was more to indicate that it can take a while for big young C before they start to produce offensively. Couturier did not break 40 pts until his 7th NHL season despite playing over 18 minutes a game for 4 of his first 6 seasons. He had a 50 pt pace in 5th year and 42 pt pace in 6th year but didn't crack 40 pts due to injuries. Couturier was at least a top defensive player during that time, and while I'm not saying KK is the same type of player... KK did have indicators he could be a strong defensive player in his rookie season.

It's more just to point out KK's production for his age (7 months younger than Couturier when comparing all these seasons) is normal and that if KK was given a bigger role we would likely see significant progression. No where in the original post did I make a case for KK being a future Selke candidate, I just pointed out the praise he got as a rookie.



See this point about facoffs is exactly the point I'm trying to make. Couturier is now a top faceoff guy, but in his first three season he was only 46.8%. KK's is 45.9%. Couturier did not enter the league as an elite faceoff guy or a top offensive center. These things take time, sometimes 5 to 6 years, and that is the only thing I'm trying to point out. Habs fans need to be patient with KK.


Okay I can agree with you there. Big centres, especially ones with a defense first mentality can take a lot longer to develop and reach their potential offensively.

The only thing is I don't see any hard evidence that KK is a defense first centre. Maybe he is but the ice time he's gotten has been sheltered to some degree. Maybe we will know next season with Danault gone.
gretzkyghosts et Shanesaw9 a aimé ceci.
 
Répondre
To create a post please Login or S'inscrire
Question:
Options:
Ajouter une option
Soumettre le sondage