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Detroit Red Wings signed Jakub Vrána (3 Years / $5,250,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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10 août 2021 à 23 h 14
#26
Rejoint: mai 2015
Messages: 7,185
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Quoting: pharrow
No one, and I mean no one, thought Pasta or Jake was a "fluke." Everyone knew they were getting a legit player there with a high ceiling. Now they didn't know how high which is why they got 6 mil deals. The doubts on that ceiling explain the ceiling on those cap hits. And that's the exact point I'm making here. There really isn't near the same ceiling here. You have to be cognizant of that. No one is mistaking vrana for either. But in 2 years basically of cap increases your saying the price on a mid 20 goal winger is 5+, and I'm saying over pay. The ceiling ain't there.



For the last 3 years He's averaged 2 mins of power play time per game. He has 0 goals.
We can go round and round on that. But his zone starts on the PP in those 3 years was never below 94%.
So you can say, he didn't get time, or we can say, he didn't do anything with the time he got.
Clearly OV was the guy there for WSH. There is no debate about that. But it's not like he got no time, or that the time was starting in the DZone or whatever.

No one is saying that Vrana is not a good player. Lets be clear on that. But he's not a center piece guy.
He had a lot of help in WSH. He also got a lot of preferential zone time. He's well over 70% his last 2 years.
At no time in his stint in WSH did he ever reach ore than piece status. He was always a cog not the wheel.
He had help from Backstrom, Kuzy, Oshie, WIlson. That's not a bad supporting cast to help a player.
And while he played well in DET for his 11 games, truth is, someone there has to score. Teams aren't just going to let every game be lopsided 8-0. Not only is it bad blood but it looks bad for the league. So you get guys, like Dzingle, who put up really good numbers in OTT for a short amount of time. Cashed in, and then the realization that he wasn't that.
It's the bad team effect.
And while I realize you want to say, "this guy is the real deal" the truth is, he's a good player, but he's not a 5+ million player.
While he may put up points in DET, those points are suspect as hell. Much like Dzingles were.
He had a lot of time in WSH to show he was more than a 20 some goal guy and a consistent goal scorer.
He's a net between 20-30 guy. As a UFA that might land you 5 as teams bid on you, see the Hyman deal as he was on a 30 goal pace last year as a support cast player.
But as an RFA, it shouldn't have. This deal should have come in less. Should have been in the 4 mil range.


Over the last two years Vrana is tied for 69th in points and 32nd in goals http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20202021&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goals&page=0&pageSize=50

And that's all players likely higher if just forwards.

ie he's at the bottom end of best goal scorer on a team or high end for second best goal scorer and scores points like a low end first liner.

5-6 million is what a #4-5 forward gets. I just think you have unreasonable expectations for that amount.
11 août 2021 à 3 h 8
#27
Rejoint: déc. 2017
Messages: 3,794
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Great trade. Great extension. Give me Vrana over Mantha all day, even without the bonus 1st and 2nd rounders!!!
11 août 2021 à 3 h 58
#28
Rejoint: juin 2018
Messages: 18,558
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Quoting: BCAPP
Over the last two years Vrana is tied for 69th in points and 32nd in goals http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20202021&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goals&page=0&pageSize=50

And that's all players likely higher if just forwards.

ie he's at the bottom end of best goal scorer on a team or high end for second best goal scorer and scores points like a low end first liner.

5-6 million is what a #4-5 forward gets. I just think you have unreasonable expectations for that amount.


First of all, lets get rid of this idea of 4-5 forward and attaching a salary to it. Because the 4 forward is almost always a center, and that conversation is an apples to oranges one both in difficulty finding, and amount of pay.
You are looking at 2nd line winger. And the idea that 2nd line wingers are in general pulling down 5-6 million is just false.
Now, there have been a lot of bad contracts handed out where that is the case where you can find 5-6 million dollar 2nd liners. But most people will admit those contracts are not good. It's not really right to use those as comparisons as guys like Hornqvist pulling down 5+ wasn't really a "smart" move.
They usually involve older players. Guys who are UFAs etc.... Which is another apples to oranges conversation.
You can't look at say Hyman making 5+ and compare here. He's not on the open market.
We are talking about a 20-30 goal scorer here who is 25 and a RFA.
In other words, he is what he is at this point, and he's an RFA. I have given a lot of leeway here. He's never actually Cracked 30. But I'm not going to argue that.
I think this narrative you have that he's some top goal scorer though, is just false. He simply is not. At 25 he would have shown that by now. As I said before, the ceiling is not here. You can compare the numbers on guys who are. They don't match up. By 25 they are hitting those numbers.
Over paying on guys and trying to act like they are a center piece instead of supporting cast, is how you lose games and screw your cap.
But if you think paying 5+ on a 2nd line winger who is a 20 some goal guy is a good move, be my guess. But don't confuse it for being a good deal, or try to justify it on other bad deals.
11 août 2021 à 7 h 35
#29
Rejoint: mai 2015
Messages: 7,185
Mentions "j'aime": 2,579
Quoting: pharrow
First of all, lets get rid of this idea of 4-5 forward and attaching a salary to it. Because the 4 forward is almost always a center, and that conversation is an apples to oranges one both in difficulty finding, and amount of pay.
You are looking at 2nd line winger. And the idea that 2nd line wingers are in general pulling down 5-6 million is just false.
Now, there have been a lot of bad contracts handed out where that is the case where you can find 5-6 million dollar 2nd liners. But most people will admit those contracts are not good. It's not really right to use those as comparisons as guys like Hornqvist pulling down 5+ wasn't really a "smart" move.
They usually involve older players. Guys who are UFAs etc.... Which is another apples to oranges conversation.
You can't look at say Hyman making 5+ and compare here. He's not on the open market.
We are talking about a 20-30 goal scorer here who is 25 and a RFA.
In other words, he is what he is at this point, and he's an RFA. I have given a lot of leeway here. He's never actually Cracked 30. But I'm not going to argue that.
I think this narrative you have that he's some top goal scorer though, is just false. He simply is not. At 25 he would have shown that by now. As I said before, the ceiling is not here. You can compare the numbers on guys who are. They don't match up. By 25 they are hitting those numbers.
Over paying on guys and trying to act like they are a center piece instead of supporting cast, is how you lose games and screw your cap.
But if you think paying 5+ on a 2nd line winger who is a 20 some goal guy is a good move, be my guess. But don't confuse it for being a good deal, or try to justify it on other bad deals.


You can call him a 20 something goal scorer all you like but he's 32nd in goals scored over the last two years. I'm not sure what you don't understand about that.

Specifically for LW he's 19th in points and tied for 10th in goals over the last two years

http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20202021&gameType=2&position=L&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goals&page=0&pageSize=50

So he's a first line lw....
11 août 2021 à 13 h 10
#30
Rejoint: août 2016
Messages: 1,020
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Rumor is Vrana wanted a deal that led him straight to UFA status so that he could sign with the Caps for cheap.
11 août 2021 à 17 h 1
#31
Rejoint: juin 2018
Messages: 18,558
Mentions "j'aime": 4,712
Quoting: BCAPP
You can call him a 20 something goal scorer all you like but he's 32nd in goals scored over the last two years. I'm not sure what you don't understand about that.

Specifically for LW he's 19th in points and tied for 10th in goals over the last two years

http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20202021&gameType=2&position=L&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goals&page=0&pageSize=50

So he's a first line lw....


And that's great and all, but the ceiling and production don't equal out here.
There are a whole slew of wingers who are producing more, had higher ceilings who are making just a tick above this.
But you want to justify it as right, I can't see how you end up at that conclusion. And yes, I do call him a 20 some goal scorer because that's what he is. But you are paying him like a guy who cracked 30 as a RFA. That doesn't balance. If he was a UFA we'd be having a different conversation. But he's not. It's also not like they bought up years here, they got 1.
That's what it boils down to.
I've said this before, I like the player, no one is calling him a bad player, but the contract does not fit. The numbers aren't there for a guy who's a RFA to get that.
Put it this way, You got UFAs who are putting up similar production.
Tatar 4.5
Saad 4.5
Hyman 5.5 UFA.
Hoffman 4.5


You got other RFAs who are arguably similar in value.
Kyrou got 2.8, his production is less but he's younger, they are projecting him as improving - RFA.

So when you look at the market, realize none of those guys signed bad contracts really, and you got 5.25 here.
If you are going to tell me you got better than say Saad, I'm going to tell you that you really didn't. That those 4 UFAs are really kind of similar in value.
And yet other than Hyman, who got a lot frankly, you are on the high end. All of those guys could play the market. Vrana could not.
11 août 2021 à 19 h 6
#32
Go avs
Rejoint: janv. 2021
Messages: 17
Mentions "j'aime": 10
Considering how well he did in his role with detroit and a scoring gap he filled no wonder he got this contract
 
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