Def agree with the idea of a cheap RH depth forward for the exact reasons you suggested. Makes too much sense given the low risk (especially if it’s a 1 year).

The Dvorak of package is a tad rich for my blood, but I also think it’s probably accurate to market. Any less may be a losing package.

We’re in a weird spot as a team.

Keep in mind it's meant to be a tad rich by design. We are dumping Rask in this package as well.

They way I look at it is it’s Greenway, Khovanov, and the 2022 2nd for Dvorak himself. The 2023 3rd is to dump Rask.

I think Gusev and Kase would be good additions. I think they would both fit in well. I really like Kase's upside, he's just unfortunately too injury prone.

Dvorak trade seems like it would be fine removing 1 piece from it but tbh I have no idea what Arizona is trying to do long-term. They're clearly taking on bad contracts with a year left to collect picks, but are they entering a full-on rebuild? Seems that way with them shipping out Kuemper.

Edit: as far as the team posted, I don't hate it. It seems reasonable and it would be a better team than they iced last year so who knows what they'd end up doing. Guessing that's what Kaprizov signs for, but sadly I'd bet on it only being 3 years at that AAV.

Think Kap gets about a million less if it's less than 4 years. Imo.

@jaytea @razwild

Out of curiosity, do either of you listen to Worst Seats, and if so have you caught the latest episode? Russo and Pants dig into the Kap contract a bit, and both of them vehemently agree that it’s better to let him sit in the KHL and say good riddance vs. sign him to a 3 year. Their argument is that the principle exceeds whatever trade value you’d get from him.

My jaw was on the floor.

I do, but haven't listened to that one yet. I don't see Guerin signing him for less than 4 years. If you can't, I would have to agree with Russo and Panther on that one. Strange as it might seem.

I agree. GMBG has to get Kaprizov signed for at least 4 years. Then when he hits UFA the dead cap will be in the rearview mirror and there'd be nothing in the way of offering him a mega deal if he showed he earned it.

Interesting. I agree that 4 is essential, but if it absolutely came down to 3 years or nothing at all, I just don’t understand the argument for nothing at all. If it’s 3 years, then the priority becomes trading him for as much as possible. If he’s in the KHL, you’re not getting anything by trading his rights.

WTH. Can they really believe that? I mean he's a FA either at 3 years (KHL or NHL) or at 4 years if we can get him to sign it.

On a 3 year contract he'll have been walked to UFA and we won't have the cap space necessary to re-sign him in 3 years as we'll still be dealing with the final year of the $14M in dead cap space. He'd be gone for nothing or we will be forced to trade him. Either way it's not ideal or beneficial to sign him for less than 4 years. It's a major loss on Guerin's end if he can't sign a single year of UFA on Kaprizov's next contract.

4 years gets us past the buyouts and a single UFA year where we will have more than enough money to throw at him to get him to re-sign. But it still might be tough to keep him at that rate. It isn't ideal, but it's absolutely essential that we sign him for 4 years at a minimum!

5 years gets us two UFA years and Guerin will have had two years past the buyouts in order to build up the team after the large cap hits come off. This is the most ideal outcome at this point.

The basic point is, if you can't sign him for longer than 4. You may as well tank, because losing that negotiation is bad... bad look by the GM. If Guerin refuses signing him for less than 4 and doesn't trade his rights, he more or less salvages face and reputation by not being bullied into a bad contract by a 24 year old kid who's played less then 82 games in the NHL.

I don’t understand it at all. If that’s not the definition of emotional decision making, idk what is. Like of course that would suck, but why throw away value just to prove a point?

In a nutshell, he saves face and reputation for not being bullied into a bad contract. You could get value for Kaprizov for sure if you traded him, but you still look bad because you let the kid get what he wants by being traded if he's not signed long term.

Guerin still looks bad, but not as much, is what it comes down to. More or less.

All fair points RazWild. But isn't 2.5 -3 years of Kap better than zero? If he stays in the KHL for 3 years don't we lose his rights anyway?

Sounds like they are both toeing the company (GMBG) line on those remarks. Pants because he wants to keep his job and Russo because he doesn't want to be locked out of everything again (Fenton).

Nobody ever brings up the fact Kaprizov could/should be on the 2nd year of his ELC for next season and not a RFA.

We’d still technically have his rights but good luck trading them for anything of value. At least if he’s on a 3 year, you can deal him. You’d still get a solid return. It would be frustrating as all heck, but way better than absolutely nothing.

Yeah I’m gonna be honest, I was pretty neutral on Russo before that episode, but that commentary was really baffling to me. Give it a listen sometime if you can stomach it, as I’d be curious on others opinions. I don’t think I’m over blowing it but maybe I’m wrong.

I thought his RFA rights expire at 27 or 28 years old regardless

Ok I'll admit I'm a Russo bobo. I look forward to listening to it. But if it's like you say, I think he's wrong on this one.

They do. Sorry I meant we’d have the rights until then regardless of where he plays. Meaning, he couldn’t just do a year in Moscow and then have his pick.

Not to GMBG. He wants to tank/rebuild anyways, all his moves trades have been tanking moves not going for it moves:
1. Zucker for futures
2. Kunin for futures + flip Bonino at the TDL last year.
3. Staal/MarJo. Takes the worse player with a higher cap hit to get around a NTC and get something at the TDL.
4. Bjugstad was chance to flip for something positive if he remembered how to stay healthy and play.
5. Donato for futures.
6. Brodin, JEE, and Spurgeon long term so they are there when the Parise/Suter deals and the team was coming out of the rebuild.
7. Completely sat out the last TDL instead of even making a minor improvement.
8. Wouldn't give Boldy a chance to earn a spot for the Playoffs over the MarJo, Bjugstad, Bonino, Parise mess in the bottom-6.

The only problem was the COVID divisions, Kaprizov came in and blew up, and JEE figured out how to put pucks in the back of the net.

We do, but it basically comes down to if you want to win or not. Kaprizov for lack of a better word, is too good of a player that we'd find ourselves in the mushy middle again, just like this year. If you can't keep him here for longer than 4+ years, you might as well be tanking.

The 2022 and 2023 draft classes are absolutely stacked and are really deep, with no less than a potential five franchise centers among them. Shayne Wright, Brad Lambert, Mathew Savoie in 2022; and Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov in 2023. On top of that, there's no less than an additional 12-20 potential elite high-end forwards during the course of those two drafts. By comparison 2024 is looking like it could be a weak draft year and it's far too early to gauge the 2025 draft. If you can't keep Kaprizov through at least through those 4-5 years, it's better to keep him out of it and cash in on those drafts while you can.

For once, I agree with your assessment on that one. 🤷‍♂️

I agree with all of that. I've thought for the last year that maybe a stealth tank was going on. Seems like letting KK stay in the KHL would be in line with that. Also I'm guessing that Leipold gives GMBG through at least year 5 or 6 to see how all of this comes together. So he's got the time.

Russo at the Stribe is a lot different than Russo now. At the Stribe he was fact based and only a writer/journalist with a little face time at intermissions. Now he has to shill for his pay site and podcasts more than just be a writer/journalist.

What he writes is still quality (fact), but if it's not put down in print he's giving his opinion and speculation on things. The only problem is he becomes another of a mouthpiece for the front office so he doesn't loose the insider access of the one team he covers when he's doing that.

His tone with the team was much different for Fletcher/Guerin than it was for Fenton; which is 100% about the access he was given. You see it a little when he says things about other teams/GMs. Compare how he writes/talks about Philly (Fletcher) and the NYI (Lou).

@wabit @RazWild @drmantalban

It's at the 57 minute (or so) of the Worst Seats in the House podcast on July 30th. It sounds like Russo is fed up. Russo suggested that GMBG offered 9M for 5 or 6 years and they said no... If so, that's a real problem. I can understand KK not doing the 8.5x8, but if he's not taking 9x5... We're in trouble here.