Intro:
This is fully based on what the Red Wings have right now in their system, and therefore assuming...
- No trade returns (if a player is assumed to be traded, there are no players acquired through the assumed trade)
- No non-affiliated FA signings
- Prospects generally follow their expected development path (apart from Cossa, because I can't see a 37-year-old Greiss getting signed over another free agent or trade acquisition, so Cossa gets the backup spot about a year or two earlier than projected)
Some notes on NHL level players:
Larkin - Bounces back in point production to a player that on average puts up just below a PPG, and his defensive acumen has continued to progress towards his goal of being one of the better two-way forwards in the game, as he's now started receiving Selke votes again in the past two seasons.
Fabbri - Traded/lost in FA
Bertuzzi - Recovered nicely after surgery, still producing as a hard-working top 6 forward.
Nedeljkovic - Proves that his rookie season wasn't a fluke and becomes a top goaltender. Not league leader in Sv% and GAA good, but good enough for a nice payday.
Hronek - On the last year of the 3 year bridge contract he signed ahead of the 21-22 season (disclaimer: prediction, hasn't actually happened), he's still a great puck-moving defenseman and an empty net god, but now that Seider has swooped in to take on top pairing minutes, he gets a little more production without being overworked.
Stecher - Traded/lost in FA
Erne - Never fully got back to his 20-21 production, but as a productive grinder at the end of his prime, he stays in Detroit on a one-year deal.
Vrana - After signing on a six-year, $36 million dollar deal at the start of the 21-22 season, he's lived up to his promise of a speedy top-line forward that can score in bunches.
Zadina - On a bridge contract, he's been developing at a solid rate and seems to have rediscovered his scoring touch as a complement to the playmaking and defensive responsibility he developed earlier in his NHL career. Was top 10 in Lady Byng voting for the 22-23 season after putting up yet another season with 2 or less PIM.
Veleno - After getting a permanent roster spot in 21-22, he's worked his way up to centering the second line (in competition with Rasmussen) and is now on a bridge contract at a decent price.
Smith - Has grown into a decent bottom-six grinder that can chip in some offense with an above-average skillset for his role (like a lesser McCarty).
Greiss - Lost in FA/Retired
Gagner - At this point in his career, he's a decent bottom-six veteran with good defense, but diminishing offense.
Leddy - Had a good first season with the Wings and earned himself a three-year deal to stay around as a veteran on the left side.
Rasmussen - As the only NHL level forward signed into the 23-24 season, I didn't have to make a decision on his contract. Expecting him to be a second/third line center, competing with Veleno between those roles.
Prospect notes:
Seider - As the best defenseman on the team, he's taken the league by storm in his first two seasons, proving that he was indeed worthy of a top 6 draft pick. Beloved by fans, teammates, and management, he's earned the privilege of an A on his jersey at the age of only 22.
Johansson - I'm high enough on him to expect a top pairing role with Seider in this situation, at least until Edvinsson is ready.
Kivenmaki - He's been outperforming his draft stock up to this point, so I'm projecting him to the fourth line
Edvinsson - Almost ready for his NHL debut, but it could take until after the trade deadline to see him suit up for a late-season stint.
Raymond - After a good showing late last season, Raymond is expected to start on the third line and work his way up the lineup.
Berggren - Now on the second line after a breakout rookie season in 22-23, he has the potential to take Zadina's spot on the first line if he continues to progress.
McIsaac/Lindstrom - By now both of these players should be established on the third pairing, but McIsaac could potentially become the 7th D if Edvinsson progresses quickly.
Mastrosimone/Sebrango - I think that by this point these two should be competing for a roster spot, so I have them as extras in this lineup.
Other signed prospects of note include Niederbach, Soderblom, Grewe, Wallinder, Tuomisto, Viro, and Bednar.
Final Notes:
- I ended up raising the salary cap to 82.5 million to reflect possible changes in the coming seasons but didn't end up needing it because of the abundance of young players on entry-level contracts or bridge deals, actually ending up under the cap floor. I don't think I underpaid anybody based on my predictions for their progression (possibly even overpaying in an attempt to get above the cap floor), but I guess that speaks to how much cap space free agency takes up.
- This is an optimistic look at the future of the Wings. In reality, some of these players will regress and some of these prospects won't make it (while others might instead), but at least this exercise gives me a good idea of the kind of potential the Red Wings have in their prospect pool that can help them sooner rather than later.
- The team doesn't have too many veterans, but I tried to include a couple to prevent the lineup from having the average age of the post-trade deadline 2021 NJD.
If you've read this far, thank you! Also, why do this to yourself?
Maybe, I'm hoping Edvinsson takes the Seider path and makes it to the roster as an NHL-ready player by his third year, but his development may be a little longer after losing time due to covid, especially as a bit of a project player. The lack of other high-end LHD prospects and an incoming exodus of veterans on that side might push him into the lineup earlier, though.
Maybe, I'm hoping Edvinsson takes the Seider path and makes it to the roster as an NHL-ready player by his third year, but his development may be a little longer after losing time due to covid, especially as a bit of a project player. The lack of other high-end LHD prospects and an incoming exodus of veterans on that side might push him into the lineup earlier, though.
the only reason Seider didn't get any time in Detroit is because the AHL season was canceled and he played in Sweden and they don't allow players back until the end of their season. Edvisson will get another year in Sweden, in 21 9 NHL games and the AHL in 22 and likely full time NHL duty in 23 if he doesn't completely fall off of a cliff.
the only reason Seider didn't get any time in Detroit is because the AHL season was canceled and he played in Sweden and they don't allow players back until the end of their season. Edvisson will get another year in Sweden, in 21 9 NHL games and the AHL in 22 and likely full time NHL duty in 23 if he doesn't completely fall off of a cliff.
Yeah, but Seider was seen as more NHL ready, while Edvinsson may take an extra season or two to make the jump. The problem is that Edvinsson could be seen as a risk because of his tendency to make bad passing decisions at random, which will take some time to fix. Seider's defensive and physical sides were both better in his draft year than Edvinsson's, with Seider's main question mark being the ability to produce offense, which isn't as much of a factor to the readiness of NHL defensemen. I do hope Edvinsson makes the roster at a good pace but I wouldn't place my expectations on him being as NHL ready as Seider. Either way when Edvinsson does make it full time he'll be an exciting addition to the team.