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Minnesota Wild signed Joel Eriksson Ek (8 Years / $5,250,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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3 juill. 2021 à 22 h 3
#76
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Quoting: Random2152
Specifically here is what they had at specific terms for the players you listed:
I can't find one on Barrie, but his season is Toronto was such a disaster that it became a unique situation.
Dubois took a short contract to help facilitate a trade. Had he signed under normal circumstances that is almost exaqctly how much everyone thought he would get. I cannot find what they projected on a 2 year term.
Cannot find one on Domi (although I did see one with a 5 year projected term in the 7's.) - Again he was an outlier.
Barzal signed a bridge deal and they projected an 8 year contract (3 year term was around 7 IIRC)
Reinhart went to ARB.
Dadonov pre-covid market falling apart should have been expected to sign almost exactly that contract. On lower term they were still pretty close.
And here is Strome:



Quoting: Saskleaf
Oh, I know they were accurate pre covid. I was talking about post covid.
3 juill. 2021 à 22 h 4
#77
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Quoting: Random2152
They still are in the 80's. Can't find an apporpriate chart but they announce it every summer.


Still pretty impressive considering covid completely blew everything up.
3 juill. 2021 à 22 h 22
#78
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I think its agood Signing yeah its
8 years but with him still developing and a Top 6 Center good on them
4 juill. 2021 à 5 h 54
#79
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Quoting: jpsnow13
Give RNH Ek's wingers and he would show how he's a better center. Not his fault if EDM has no depth at wings.


Do you know who JEE's wings were this year? It was Foligno and Greenway playing in a shutdown role. It's not like he was playing with Fiala or Kaprizov trying to be our top scoring line.
4 juill. 2021 à 9 h 29
#80
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Quoting: DogDayCaps2
118gp 27g 32a 59p (.5ppg or 41p / 82gp)

48.59cf% 49.52ff% 55.79xgf%

I think he’s a really great 3c or an average 2c. I would compare him to Lars Eller. Dude got a big pay day for having a great year where his s% was WAY above his average…. Could be good but people call this a steal might be overhyping a guy coming off a good year in a division that was fairly weak / top heavy


No. His shooting percentage was high, but his isolated impacts are still crazy good. Even before this season you could predict JEE having a great season if given some good ice time and team mates. You're using some really selective metrics to prove your point. Either you understand that points are a poor reflection of player value, and defer to metrics like corsi, or you don't. Assuming you do, why not use isolated metrics? You see on the one expected number you present how good his impact could be if given some good opportunity. I think it's an incredibly smart deal to sign before you unleash him at 1C and he gathers points at a much higher rate.

Also you completely ignore defensive impactin your analysis for some reason. You're saying some correct things but you're missing the big picture completely here imo.
4 juill. 2021 à 12 h 28
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Quoting: MelonVK
No. His shooting percentage was high, but his isolated impacts are still crazy good. Even before this season you could predict JEE having a great season if given some good ice time and team mates. You're using some really selective metrics to prove your point. Either you understand that points are a poor reflection of player value, and defer to metrics like corsi, or you don't. Assuming you do, why not use isolated metrics? You see on the one expected number you present how good his impact could be if given some good opportunity. I think it's an incredibly smart deal to sign before you unleash him at 1C and he gathers points at a much higher rate.

Also you completely ignore defensive impactin your analysis for some reason. You're saying some correct things but you're missing the big picture completely here imo.


Xgf% doesn’t show defensive impact? I also said like 4x in this post he’sa great shutdown guy. I don’t believe I Ignored anything. He’s a great 3c who can put up average points and shutdown top lines. If he can score 60-70 points that would be a “great season” or a more complete season. Possession numbers mixed with xgf% gives a great idea of a players defensive impact. Obviously that’s why his xgf% is amazing but lacks everywhere else
4 juill. 2021 à 12 h 31
#82
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Quoting: futurehofer
Do you know who JEE's wings were this year? It was Foligno and Greenway playing in a shutdown role. It's not like he was playing with Fiala or Kaprizov trying to be our top scoring line.


Yes I know who were EK's wingers, thus my comment.

And I would take them over any RNH's wingers anytime, which I can't even identify since nobody was able to step up and filled the position off 2nd line wingers. Kassian? Kunin? Ennis? Neil?

Putting RNH on Draisaitl/Mcdavid doesn’t make him a bad center, it makes him a center on a team without quality wingers, which Minnesota has plenty.

Also, been responsible defensively, playing against first lines, doesn't make you a shutdown line. It makes you a first line.
4 juill. 2021 à 16 h 14
#83
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Quoting: DogDayCaps2
Xgf% doesn’t show defensive impact? I also said like 4x in this post he’sa great shutdown guy. I don’t believe I Ignored anything. He’s a great 3c who can put up average points and shutdown top lines. If he can score 60-70 points that would be a “great season” or a more complete season. Possession numbers mixed with xgf% gives a great idea of a players defensive impact. Obviously that’s why his xgf% is amazing but lacks everywhere else


What he lacks everywhere else he can literally make up with more offensive minutes. I have his impacts add up to that of Bergeron - he's just as good, more offensively inclined and slightly less so defensively. What really differs is team mates and minutes. He's a 2/3C because you look at points alone. I have no idea how else you end up with him being anything less than a good 1C.
4 juill. 2021 à 18 h 40
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Modifié 4 juill. 2021 à 18 h 45
Quoting: MelonVK
What he lacks everywhere else he can literally make up with more offensive minutes. I have his impacts add up to that of Bergeron - he's just as good, more offensively inclined and slightly less so defensively. What really differs is team mates and minutes. He's a 2/3C because you look at points alone. I have no idea how else you end up with him being anything less than a good 1C.


Common sense? The fact you think he’s a 1c is confusing. He wouldn’t be a 1c on any NHL team. I doubt he’s even a top 50 center all things considered. He would fall #3 maybe in Washington but Eller puts up comparable numbers. I love how people try to ignore the importance of points. It’s easy one of the dumbest takes in the world. What separates Mcdavid from other 1c? Or why is he considered generational? Or why is Matthews so great. They can score…. It’s not rocket science. Shutdown players are important but they aren’t 1-2c unless they can score a lot.

AGAIN BEING GREAT AT 1 thing doesn’t make you a 1c. Look at koppy backstrom bergy Matthews mcdavid leon McKinnon barkov Crosby Malkin….
4 juill. 2021 à 19 h 20
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Quoting: DogDayCaps2
Common sense? The fact you think he’s a 1c is confusing. He wouldn’t be a 1c on any NHL team. I doubt he’s even a top 50 center all things considered. He would fall #3 maybe in Washington but Eller puts up comparable numbers. I love how people try to ignore the importance of points. It’s easy one of the dumbest takes in the world. What separates Mcdavid from other 1c? Or why is he considered generational? Or why is Matthews so great. They can score…. It’s not rocket science. Shutdown players are important but they aren’t 1-2c unless they can score a lot.

AGAIN BEING GREAT AT 1 thing doesn’t make you a 1c. Look at koppy backstrom bergy Matthews mcdavid leon McKinnon barkov Crosby Malkin….


All your arguments are circular...

No, points is an indicator of plenty of other things above individual offensive impact. Defensive/offensive minute split, coaching effects, team mates/competition etc.

Leon Draisaitl doesn't score a bunch of points because he's some amazing offensive talent. He scores a lot of points thanks to playing on the powerplay with one of the best offensive players we've seen, by taking on secondary competition while having competent wingers, and still being a net negative thanks to his poor defensive ability. You're making my point for me.

You're the one looking at 1 thing. I'm trying to evaluate both defense and offense, while you're looking at points.

The problem with your analysis is you'd think MacKinnon was way worse a few years ago, when in reality the situation around him changed more than he did. He was always amazing. Ironically, Colorado recognizes this and uses sophisticated statistical analysis to construct a competitive team.

You're 1) comparing apples to pears. Washington is built way different from Minnesota. 2) Missing out on the fact that Lars Eller is also really good, and should probably be at least a #2C on most teams. He's also better offensively than Kuznetsov, but again, one is fed easy O-zone minutes and underperforms relative to it, while the other gets fed defensive minutes and does more than expected in those minutes. This is what you're consistently missing. You underrate the impact of the playing situation. This is why we use expected values.
5 juill. 2021 à 9 h 12
#86
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When teams offer 8 year contracts to players I always get concerned but here the money is fine would’ve paid slightly less but I mean around what I would’ve offered him and the reason I get concerned about 8 year deals is what if the contract doesn’t turn out?
5 juill. 2021 à 10 h 18
#87
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Yikes that is quite a bit for a 3rd line center. Potentially it could pay off for the Wild long term. I doubt it though. I personally don't like the AAV or the 8 year term. Just one guys opinion.
6 juill. 2021 à 5 h 59
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I'm really interested how everybody on here would compare the JEE signing against the RNH signing. I know it's hard to compare them, different play types, different ages but still.
6 juill. 2021 à 7 h 57
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Ah, an old friend. I never had high hopes for JEE due to his offense being average at best, but I'll take him as a purely defensive 2C.
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6 juill. 2021 à 15 h 59
#90
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1. Eriksson Ek is younger then Nugent Hopkins
2. Ek will still be 32 when the contract ends and Nugent Hopkins will be 36 so Ek could still be in his prime while Nuge will be towards the end of his career
3. He only gets better every year while nuge is constantly declining
4: Past three seasons:
JEE: 18-19: 14P RNH 18-19: 69P
JEE: 19-20: 29P RNH: 19-20: 61P
JEE 21’: 30P RNH 21’: 41P

There’s a chance this contract is better then RNH’s
9 juill. 2021 à 23 h 58
#91
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alongside being ANOTHER pick boston missed in their 3 b-b-b 1st rounds that's gonna be real good especially when he hits his ntc-nmc years but before his signing i thought he was the one gonna be taken from the SEA expansion draft
12 juill. 2021 à 11 h 54
#92
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Quoting: PastaMarchyBergy4life
alongside being ANOTHER pick boston missed in their 3 b-b-b 1st rounds that's gonna be real good especially when he hits his ntc-nmc years but before his signing i thought he was the one gonna be taken from the SEA expansion draft


As he broke out this season
28 juill. 2021 à 18 h 31
#93
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Oh, I know they were accurate pre covid. I was talking about post covid.


Hey I just wanted to follow up on this since I now have proper numbers to back up the claim.

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28 juill. 2021 à 19 h 1
#94
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Quoting: Random2152
Hey I just wanted to follow up on this since I now have proper numbers to back up the claim.



Ya that's pretty good.
 
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