Quoting: math731
You explained the facts really well, but talking about motives for each parties, I figured Weber would accept to be placed on LTIR partly out of respect for MTL AND NAS. Because being on LTIR would help both team (MTL acquiring assets and not losing him for nothing, and NAS saving a 24 millions cap penalty over the next 5 years). Also, I know its peanuts compared to what he made throughout his career, but a couple of millions is still a couple of millions…. So if all hes gotta do is testing at the start of the seasons, I think Weber would gladly accept being places on LTIR (plus the fact that it helps both teams).
And I dont get how MB would paint himself in a corner for doing whats best for his team… Hes got the opportunity to make a great deal and to also help NAS in some ways. Obviously, the fact that hes in a position of strenght doesnt means hed have to completely destroy Poile in a trade (like Tomasino + 2022 unprotect first, etc). The trade I suggest is perfectly fair and isnt crazy bad for NAS either. Saving basically 10 millions + in cap for the next 5-6 years is worth a lot on the market, a lot more than the trade above…
Weber will not sacrifice his retirement freedom after all he's done and gone through, to "SAVE" the team that traded him, if he's not STILL on that team. IF he wants to be nice, he can ask to be traded to Nashville and then let them put him on LTIR on paper to SAVE them, not him. MTL gains nothing by saving NSH so they are in their right to force Nashville to take Weber back if need be but I don't think is will be a crazy big cost like you mentioned, which is ALOT, a 1st, 2nd and a good young roster player would net you a stud player in a trade, not a LTIR player. Yes the cap saving is great but the optics are too slanted nd would be way too obvious. There has to be respect between the GM's. MB wouldn't blackmail other GM's and I think any GM that would be find himself on the outside with the others. Remember, this only happens if Weber wants to retire. If that is the case, Habs are losing 7.8M in cap space also, that is a benefit to them too. Habs are winning this trade, no matter what from the get go. Can't get too greedy.
If it happens it will happen in 23-24 when Weber's salary is 1M a year for 3 more years. Not before that since he'll still be getting 3M next year and currently is still very good so the Habs will want to keep him if he can still play. But assuming in 23-24 he starts to suck really bad and wants to retire, the trade would probably be more like:
Weber
MTL 2nd Round pick 2024
for
NSH 1st round pick 2024
That way Habs clearly get what they want. Nashville pays a realistic price that definitely hurts but isn't catastrophic. Everyone is happy and the League won't have any negative press from it. Nashville quietly places Weber on LTIR for the remainder of his contract and lets Weber go live where ever he wants because they don't care about him coming back. Its all for show anyway.