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How the draft probably plays out without any trades

How the draft probably plays out without any trades

Cuvée de repêchage: 2021
Créé par: sensonfire
Publié: 11 juin 2021 à 21 h 19
Description
This Mock Draft builds off of what I said in "How the draft probably plays out if each team addresses their needs":

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/458413

Now that the Final Four in the playoffs is set and we now know which teams have picks 17 thru 28, we can continue on this little adventure :D
RONDE 1ÉQUIPEORIGINALJOUEURDéTAILS
1Logo de Sabres de Buffalo-As much as I believe that Matthew Beniers would provide much needed relief at centre for the Sabres after Jack Eichel is traded, GM Kevyn Adams will be under an enormous amount of pressure to pick Owen Power instead. I think Kevyn Adams eventually caves to that pressure, especially if any of it comes from the Pegulas. If Owen Power is picked by the Sabres, I'm curious to see what the Sabres do with Rasmus Dahlin, Ryan Johnson, and Mattias Samuelsson after the draft. If the Sabres have both Power and Dahlin on the left side of their defence, then they absolutely 100% need to get a quality centre back in any Eichel trade.
2Logo de Kraken de Seattle-Total crapshoot, but when I put my expansion team for Seattle together, people have indicated that my depth at centre is very shallow. Also, I often find myself selecting Mark Giordano and Brady Skjei from Calgary and Carolina respectively for the expansion draft. I'm of the opinion that if Owen Power is the best player in the draft, then Matthew Beniers is the second best.
3Logo de Ducks d'Anaheim-They need a goal scorer who can not only replace Rickard Rakell on the wing but also Ryan Getzlaf at centre. They already have Fowler, Lindholm and Drysdale as part of their defence as well as John Gibson between the pipes.
4Logo de Devils du New Jersey-Having two All-Star brothers on the Devils would be awesome. If Luke is playing on the Devils with Jack, there is no way Luke turns into a bust. Also, adding Luke would not take away a roster spot from anybody of significance IMO.
5Logo de Blue Jackets de Columbus-Once the Blue Jackets trade Seth Jones, they will have a huge, enormous hole on the right side of their defence. Brandt Clarke is the one RD in the entire 2021 draft that can fill that void. If they draft Brandt Clarke and trade Seth Jones, it will eliminate a conflict of interest for Columbus on whether to trade for a quality defenceman or a quality centreman that the Blue Jackets so desperately need.
6Logo de Red Wings de Detroit-Within the Red Wings organization, the left side of their defence looks really sketchy, except for maybe William Wallinder. They need somebody who is big, mean, physical and plays well at both ends of the ice. Somebody who will not let opposing teams run the Red Wings over like in 2019-2020. Although the Red Wings will not be able to get Owen Power at 6th overall, Simon Edvinsson is the next best piece to the puzzle for them. If he turns into somebody like Niklas Kronwall, this will be a home run for Detroit.
7Logo de Sharks de San Jose-The San Jose Sharks under GM Doug Wilson have no history of picking a goalie in the 1st round whatsoever and although they probably need to buy out Martin Jones, the top goalie in the 2021 draft should not be picked until after Ottawa picks at 10th overall. If the Sharks want somebody like Jesper Wallstedt, they can always trade down. I believe their depth at forward is really weak and having Alexander Barabanov or Rudolfs Balcers on the 2nd line is unacceptable. They need a high quality forward that can come in and play right away. Since there are a few teams that would pick Dylan Guenther if they won the draft lottery, (we're looking at you Calgary), I have the Sharks picking Dylan Guenther at 7th overall.
8Logo de Kings de Los Angeles-After the San Jose Sharks picked Guenther, their California rival to the South will want the next best thing. The defence and goaltending for the LA Kings is fine while they have more than enough depth and quality within their organization at centre. That means they need a winger and should pick Fabian Lysell. Some of the reasoning is based on why the Kings would want Guenther.
9Logo de Canucks de Vancouver-The only quality centres within the Canucks organization are Elias Petterson and Bo Horvat. That's it. Everything else is just a pile of junk. If things continue to go sideways for the Canucks over the next couple of years, Horvat might want to play elsewhere once he becomes a UFA in 2023. The answer to this problem is Kent Johnson, a centreman who is a Vancouver native and played his minor hockey there. Although he won't play for the Canucks until he's done with college hockey at the University of Michigan, that means he won't be playing for the Canucks until the 2022-2023 season and won't clog up the centre position with Petterson and Horvat still here. Once Kent Johnson turns pro, he'll want to play his entire career with the team he probably grew up cheering for and retire as a Canuck after he turns 40. He'll instantly become a fan favourite and picking him could be used as a way for Jim Benning to make a desperate attempt to rehabilitate his image as General Manager.
10Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa-I've been pretty high on Fabian Lysell in a few of my posts, but I now have him going to the Kings at 8th overall. Unless the Sens trade up to get Lysell, they'll need to pick somebody else. Mason McTavish is the next best player for Ottawa IMO. He's an Ottawa native and played his minor hockey in the Ottawa Valley. If the Sens picked him, he and his family will be over the moon and Mason might want to play his entire NHL career in Ottawa until he retires around the age of 40. He has a history of playing high level hockey with grown men instead of just teenagers, which he did in Switzerland, and he had an exceptionally strong Gold Medal winning performance for Team Canada at the U18 tournament. As a result of this performance, NHL central scouting ranked him as the #2 North American skater behind Owen Power. A few other pundits have him ranked in the top 10, notably eliteprospects.com. I'm not sure that Josh Norris or Shane Pinto could be the #1 C that Owner Eugene Melnyk covets, so that is why Mason McTavish should be strongly considered by the Senator's brain trust. Mason McTavish will instantly become a fan favourite and picking him could help Melnyk rehabilitate his image.
11Logo de Coyotes de l'Arizona-
Choix au repêchage retiré
12Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago-Aside from maybe Drew Commesso, the Hawks have virtually no good quality goaltenders within their organization. Corey Crawford and Robin Lehner are long gone and Chicago needs to adapt to their absence. If David Poile of the Nashville Predators felt it was wise to pick a goalie at 11th overall, then Hawks GM Stan Bowman should consider that as well. Therefore, I have the Chicago Blackhawks as the team that selects Jesper Wallstedt.
13Logo de Flames de Calgary-This is where we start getting into the thick of things at the draft. The Flames need a Top 6 RW who is a right shot and who can score goals in bunches. However, they will also need a quality Top 6 Centre if Calgary ends up trading Sean Monahan. That means the Flames should consider a player like Chaz Lucius, a player that fits the description and who can be moved to RW if needed. Some pundits like TSN's Bob McKenzie, Roger's Sportsnet and McKeen's Hockey have him ranked in the Top 10 and a few others have him ranked 12th or 13th. That means Lucius is a very safe pick for Calgary.
14Logo de Flyers de Philadelphie-The Flyers have the same predicament as the Vancouver Canucks, in which their top defensive pairing consists of two left shot LDs. Currently, their best right shot RD is Philippe Myers, which is concerning for the Flyers to say the least. Also, still having Ghost around is a waste of a spot on the roster, considering he was placed on waivers just recently. Therefore, the Flyers should buy out Ghost, draft Corson Ceulemans if they have the chance and place Sanheim on the second pairing, once Ceulemans is ready to play with Provorov on the top pairing.
15Logo de Stars de Dallas-Although the Dallas Stars have Klingberg and Heiskanen, they don't have a lot of quality RDs who will be playing in the NHL anytime soon and the Stars are extremely depleted on that front. Unfortunately, in this situation, Brandt Clarke and Corson Ceulemans are already off the board and there is a huge drop-off to the next RD. Unless the Stars are willing to trade up to grab Ceulemans or pay a king's ransom for Brandt Clarke, they will need to focus on other needs instead. The top RWs on the Stars, Radulov and Pavelski, are ~35 years of age and will be pending UFAs next year. If the Stars don't make the playoffs next year, they'll probably want to play elsewhere or retire. Interestingly, the Stars have very few players on their roster that are right shots, so whoever they take should ideally be a right shot IMO. Therefore, I think proud American Matthew Coronato could be a good fit.
16Logo de Rangers de New York-Aside from K'Andre Miller, the Rangers' defence on the left side looks a little light. If K'Andre doesn't pan out as a #1 defenceman who can play on the top pairing with Fox and is better suited playing on the second pairing with Trouba/Schnieder/Lundkvist, then the Rangers should be drafting a LD. Also, if they trade for Eichel and/or resign one of Strome or Zibanejad, there will be less of an incentive for drafting a centreman. Therefore, I have them drafting someone like Carson Lambos at 15th/16th overall.
17Logo de Blues de St-Louis-After signing Jordan Binnington to an extension, the Blues established that he will be their #1 goalie for the foreseeable future. That means there is no incentive for St. Louis to spend their 1st round pick on a goalie. Their defence corps looks really solid with Krug, Faulk, Scandella, Parayko and Dunn. This means the Blues should consider picking a forward in this spot, especially considering that the vast majority of their pending UFAs are forwards and they are probably losing Barbashev to Seattle in the expansion draft. Their centre depth of O'Reilly, Schenn and Thomas look fine. Where I have some concern with the Blues is on the wing. Steen, Schwartz and Hoffman could all leave in the offseason and so could Bozak, who sometimes played at RW from time to time. Their #1 winger, Vladimir Tarasenko, has struggled to stay healthy for the past two years and after the Cup win in 2019, has disappeared come playoff time. The Blues' top scorer, David Perron, will be a UFA next year and Klim Kostin has yet to prove whether he can play in the NHL full-time. Therefore, the Blues IMO should pick a winger who can not only score goals but who also can play on either wing. Oskar Olausson addresses all those needs and is ranked in the top half of the draft by eliteprospects.com, dobberprospects, and a few other pundits. Therefore, the Blues should consider Olausson at 17th overall.
18Logo de Jets de Winnipeg-I have a feeling this is where we are going to see the first "off-the-board" pick. The depth for the Jets is rock solid with Scheifele, Dubois, Lowry, and Perfetti at their disposal. Winnipeg has Connor, Wheeler, Ehlers, and Copp on the wing as well as Torgersson in the pipeline. No issues for the Jets at forward IMO. Connor Hellebuyck is the goalie of the future for Winnipeg, so it doesn't make much sense for the Jets to pick a goalie in the first round. Then, there's the Jets' D Corps. Aside from Morrissey and Pionk, the Jets have absolutely zero offensive contributions from their back-end. The right side of their defence looks like a real sore spot and the absence of Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers has only made things worse. The Jets need to do something to address it. That's why I have them drafting Scott Morrow, a right shot RD from Shattuck St. Mary's who, according to draftprospectshockey.com, is an offensively creative defender with unreal puck skills and who is also an elite skater with a competitive edge to his game. Scott Morrow is a perfect fit for the Winnipeg Jets IMO.
19Logo de Predators de Nashville-It makes no sense for the Nashville Predators to draft a goalie in the first round because Juuse Saros has already replaced Pekka Rinne as the starting goalie and they drafted Yaroslav Askarov at 11th overall last year. Their defence corps looks ok because they have Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm, and Dante Fabbro to hold down the fort at the back end. At first glance, the forward group for the Preds looks a bit messy and there is a serious risk that one of Colton Sissons/Rocco Grimaldi could be taken by Seattle in the expansion draft. With Sissons possibly gone to Seattle and both Mikael Granlund/Erik Huala gone to free agency, their needs at centre ice will become increasingly urgent. Both Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene are making 8 million per year and have transformed themselves from being #1 centremen into cap dumps with really bad contracts. This season, Duchene and Johansen have both proven to be rather disappointing, to say the least. All of this means that longtime GM David Poile needs to pick the best centreman available at 19th overall. That centreman is Cole Sillinger, the son of former Nashville Predator, Mike Sillinger.
20Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton-Last year, the Edmonton Oilers spent all their draft picks on forwards and they already have McDavid/Draisaitl going into next season. They have lots of forward prospects within their organization, so there's very little incentive to spend their 1st round pick on yet another forward. They have Darnell Nurse on defence and will likely bring back at least one of Tyson Barrie/Adam Larsson. Plus, Edmonton has Philip Broberg and Evan Bouchard as blue-chip prospects for their group on the blue line. That leaves us with considering what the Oilers have in net. Mike Smith is a pending UFA who is close to retirement and might not be back next season. Neither Mikko Koskinen or Alex Stalock are good enough to be #1 goalies in the NHL and the Oilers don't really have any blue-chip quality goaltending prospects to write home about. The best goalie prospect available is Sebastian Cossa of the Edmonton Oil Kings. The Oil Kings play in the same Downtown Edmonton arena as the Oilers, they are owned by the Oilers and Cossa is the #1 North American goalie prospect, according to NHL Central Scouting. As an Alberta native from Edmonton, Cossa is a "match made in heaven" for the Oilers.
21Logo de Bruins de Boston-Finding the right prospect for which to spend a first-round pick can be tricky for a really good team because their needs are not as glaringly obvious as the needs on other teams. Nevertheless, I'll give it a try. Aside from the first line of Marchand/Bergeron/Pastrnak, the Boston Bruins do not get a lot of scoring from their other forwards. Although Taylor Hall and David Krejci might come back next season, Jake Debrusk, Ondrej Kase, and Zach Senyshyn have not lived up to their full potential. They have virtually no goal-scoring wingers in their pipeline. Interestingly, the vast majority of prospects within the Bruins' organization are Americans and all of their 2020 draft picks were spent on proud American patriots. Furthermore, amongst the non-pending UFAs, the Bruins' roster has 2 right shots for every left shot in their forward group, according to https://www.capfriendly.com/depth-charts/bruins. That means the Boston Bruins would be proud to select from the US National Team Development Program: Sasha Pastujov!
22Logo de Wild du Minnesota-The Minnesota Wild have been searching for a #1 Centreman for a very long time. Joel Eriksson Ek and Victor Rask are not the answer to that predicament. The qualities they need in a centreman is one with a quick-strike offence to his game and who can cash in on a powerplay that has been sorely lacking in the State of Hockey. Someone who is an elite skater and a high energy forward. It would also help if he was a right shot. What's funny about Minnesota is that of their twelve forwards, only one is a right shot: Ryan Hartman, according to https://www.capfriendly.com/depth-charts/wild. That needs to change. What the drafting of centreman Marco Rossi and the signing of winger Mats Zuccarello is that Minnesota is not afraid of acquiring forwards who are not very tall but can make an enormous impact on the team. All this leads me to believe that Logan Stankoven, ranked 12th best player in the draft by draftprospectshockey.com, must be taken off the board before it's too late.
23Logo de Red Wings de DetroitLogo de Capitals de WashingtonWith Simon Edvinsson now in their back pocket, the Red Wings need to hit another home run with their other first-round pick. My recommendation is to use one or two more picks in this year's draft on a good-quality sizable LD who is capable of playing a physical game, remembering back to when I said the left side of Detroit's defence looks "really sketchy". Daniil Chayka from CSKA Moscow of the KHL is a big, 6 foot 3, physical, two-way LD who is a "meat and potatoes" type of player, poised, skates well, strong passer and defensively sound. Perfect fit for Steve Yzerman and the Detroit Red Wings.
24Logo de Panthers de la Floride-By now, Aatu Raty has been waiting to be picked for a long time. Many pundits are constantly speculating how much further Raty is going to slide as the 1st round of the draft drags on. Raty's slump in the draft rankings over the past few months represents a lagging indicator of how much he has truly fallen. As Raty waits to be picked, he grows even more remorseful over how he didn't pick up the pace in his game and keep it going through the second half of the season. The Florida Panthers with the 24th overall pick are a bit surprised Raty fell this far down but they are not completely shocked. They feel the Finnish centreman can be a good fit with the organization if he is coached the right way and is surrounded by the right group of players. Interestingly, more players from Finland played for the Florida Panthers than any other team in the NHL and the Panthers have a history of hosting some high-quality Finnish talent like Aleksander Barkov and Anton Lundell. There is a huge dropoff between Barkov and the next best centreman on Florida's roster, so if Lundell doesn't pan out, Raty could be the next in line to Barkov. The Panthers' head coach, Joel Quenneville, only gets the best out of his group of players and in the worse case scenario, Raty turns out to be another Henrik Borgstrom. Raty is definitely the best player available and the Panthers roll the dice on him at 24th overall.
25Logo de Blue Jackets de ColumbusLogo de Maple Leafs de TorontoThe neverending search for a #1 centreman continues in Columbus. So many high-quality centres have been taken so far and the only reason the Blue Jackets went with Brandt Clarke at 5th overall was because they desperately needed to make up for the loss of Seth Jones this offseason. They want a centreman who has a history of competing with grown men. Someone who can battle through adversity in hockey and in life. Known for finding hidden gems at the draft like Chinakhov last year, Jarmo focuses in on a centreman who was barred from playing in the OHL and had to play in some faraway country where he didn't speak the language and was not able to drive his own car to get to the arena. His name is Francesco Pinelli, a centreman for the Kitchener Rangers who had to go play in Slovenia with men almost twice his age for a few months because of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Pinelli is a smart, skilled and fast centreman with a quick stick. He attacks the middle and is strong on the puck. Pinelli is both a goal scorer and a playmaker who needs time to develop. But that's ok, because the Blue Jackets won't be making the playoffs for at least a couple of years. After watching video tape of his play in the OHL and in Slovenia, Jarmo wonders if he could be the next Anze Kopitar, who played for the same Slovenian hockey program as Pinelli. At 25th overall, the Columbus Blue Jackets are proud to select from the Kitchener Rangers, Francesco Pinelli.
26Logo de Wild du MinnesotaLogo de Penguins de PittsburghRemphasizing the points I made about Minnesota selecting Stankoven, the Wild need more right shots to their roster and they also need a good quality centreman who can be their #1 go-to-guy someday. Once again, they need a right-shot centre who has a quck-strike offence to his game and who can cash in on the powerplay. An elite skater and high-energy centre is most preferred. If Stankoven might not pan out, then Minnesota must take Xavier Bourgault of the Shawinigan Cataractes from the QMJHL. Bourgault is a goal-scorer who plays a two-way game and is creative offensively. He moves his feet pretty quickly and he has skilled hands, excellent vision and a strong shot. Stankoven and Bourgault are absolutely essential picks for Minnesota.
27Logo de Hurricanes de la Caroline-The Carolina Hurricanes have a logjam with their defence and their goaltending. So, all eyes must be on picking a forward. Aho, Trocheck, Staal, and Suzuki is a pretty solid group of centremen for the Canes, so the forward they pick in the first round needs to be a winger. Last year, the Carolina picked RWs Seth Jarvis and Noel Gunler as their main prizes from the 2020 draft, so it wouldn't hurt if they decided to go with a LW this year instead. The best LW still on the board by the time Carolina picks at 27th overall is Brennan Othmann of the Flint Firebirds. Like Francesco Pinelli, Othmann is forced out of the OHL due to the Covid-19 Pandemic and was forced to play overseas with men that are almost twice his age and who don't speak English. After watching video of him playing in Switzerland and hearing testimony from his scouting staff, Canes GM Don Waddell was impressed with Othmann so much that he often found himself comparing Othmann to Canes LW Nino Niederreiter, only a more physical version of Nino. A goal scoring winger who has a wicked shot, a solid forecheck, and who is strong on the puck, Othmann finds himself picked by Carolina at 27th.
28Logo de Avalanche du Colorado-The Colorado Avalanche already has lots of depth at defence. Over the last two years, the Avs have spent two first round picks on blue-chip prospects for their defence, namely Bowen Byram and Justin Barron. Joe Sakic has no appetite for yet another spending of a 1st round pick on a defenceman. Sakic is very confident he can sign Philippe Grubauer to an extension and Pavel Francouz will be ready to play next season after a long absence due to injury. With the vast majority of their pending UFAs being forwards, their 1st round pick will definitely be spent drafting a forward. Due to his inability to get control of himself during the playoffs, centreman Nazem Kadri is living on borrowed time as a member of the Colorado Avalanche. Also, if contract negotitations with Captain Gabriel Landeskog go south for some reason, Sakic will be in a little bit of a pickle. What Landeskog and Kadri both have in common is that they can both play centre and take faceoffs from time to time. And so, Sakic and his scouting staff go searching for a good quality centreman. Where do they look? Seeing that the Avalanche have a few maritimers on their roster who have turned into really good players, the Avs decide to head back east. They find themselves in the largest city in the Maritimes, Halifax, Nova Scotia, watching a Halifax Mooseheads game. As the Junior Hockey Alumni for Alex Tanguay, Nathan MacKinnon and Justin Barron, the Mooseheads are showcasing another special player this year named Zachary L'Heureux. A centreman who occasionally plays LW, L'Heureux is a strong, nasty, physical, goal-scoring power forward. He has the instincts to finish and his quick and shifty all over the ice. Not only that, but he plays with so much heart and emotion. With L'Heureux showing some flashes of Tanguay and Kadri rolled into one, Sakic thinks this is a home run that can't be passed over. Colorado procceeds to take him at 28th overall.
29Logo de Canadiens de Montréal-
30Logo de Devils du New JerseyLogo de Islanders de New York
31Logo de Blue Jackets de ColumbusLogo de Lightning de Tampa Bay
32Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas-
11 juin 2021 à 22 h 36
#1
dolohinzombiejr
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Very well thought out mock. I agree with your analysis that taking a goaltender at 7 would be uncharacteristic of the Sharks.
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11 juin 2021 à 23 h 8
#2
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Really enjoyed the detailed write-ups for each prospect. I agree with most picks, but as a Bruins fan, I’m hoping they grab Raty if he falls to #21. I’m confident that their development team could get him back on track towards becoming the 1C he was projected as only a year ago, and since the Bruins’ best C prospect has only played RW at the NHL level, it’s an area that’s severely lacking in quality young players.
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11 juin 2021 à 23 h 49
#3
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Quoting: Dom_Sweely
Really enjoyed the detailed write-ups for each prospect. I agree with most picks, but as a Bruins fan, I’m hoping they grab Raty if he falls to #21. I’m confident that their development team could get him back on track towards becoming the 1C he was projected as only a year ago, and since the Bruins’ best C prospect has only played RW at the NHL level, it’s an area that’s severely lacking in quality young players.


I agree. Also a huge Bruins fan I want Aatu Ratÿ.
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11 juin 2021 à 23 h 53
#4
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I really like this mock. Well written. I honestly don’t see Lysell going in the top ten. He’s been dropping down the rankings this year. Otherwise it’s solid. Note: teams will go off the board and maybe this is the one. I think there will be several off the board picks even without any trades.
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11 juin 2021 à 23 h 58
#5
Speak of the Devil
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Very realistic and well thought out mock draft

Im expecting a couple of trades in the actual draft tho
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12 juin 2021 à 0 h 28
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Good insight into the Columbus pick, makes total sense.
Great overall draft, enjoyed the read!
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12 juin 2021 à 5 h 36
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Amazing work mate! How long did you do this? This is A+!

I agree with what you said about the Wild, and I also really want to get Bourgault. I haven't scouted Stankoven that much, but you sold me on him.
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12 juin 2021 à 8 h 52
#8
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sensonfire
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Quoting: EccE
Amazing work mate! How long did you do this? This is A+!

I agree with what you said about the Wild, and I also really want to get Bourgault. I haven't scouted Stankoven that much, but you sold me on him.


I copied and pasted my analysis on the non-playoff teams from a previous post of mine and then worked on the playoff teams that didn't make the Final 4.

Because I took quite a few breaks (my golden retriever puppy is high maintenance, I needed to do yard work, make dinner, etc.), it took me a few hours.

I'm glad you liked it smile
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12 juin 2021 à 13 h 16
#9
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C'mon @sensonfire, give us two more.

Chibrikov
Svozil
Samoskevich
Tuomaala
Broz
Behrens
Mailloux
12 juin 2021 à 13 h 19
#10
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sensonfire
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
C'mon @sensonfire, give us two more.

Chibrikov
Svozil
Samoskevich
Tuomaala
Broz
Behrens
Mailloux


For that to happen, I need to know who the losers are between Montreal/Vegas and Islanders/Lightning.
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