Forums/Armchair-GM

The Best Possession Team

Créé par: NHLfan10506
Date de création initiale: 14 avr. 2021
Publié: 14 avr. 2021
Équipe: 2020-21 Équipe du client
Explications
The all possession team, measured by RELATIVE CORSI ratings (how much more possession does a team have when that player is on ice).

(guys you want to build a team around)

(Stats for 2020-21 season, minimum 30 games played)

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Definitions:
"Relative Corsi” (CF% Rel or SAT% Rel): Shows the relative effect of a player on the ice. A positive CF% Rel means that when the player is on the ice, the team’s CF% is higher than when the player is not on the ice.

(source: https://captaincalculator.com/sports/hockey/corsi-calculator/)

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Stats (Listing everyone that is 4.0+):

CENTERS
Jack Hughes, NJD: 8.9
Nathan MacKinnon, COL: 6.7
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, EDM: 6.6
Joe Pavelski, DAL: 6.1
Tomas Hertl, SJS: 5.6
Phillip Danault, MTL: 5.3
Leon Draisaitl, EDM: 5.1
Ryan Getzlaf, ANA: 4.8
Anze Kopitar LAK: 4.8
John Tavares TOR: 4.1

WINGS
Clayton Keller, ARI: 10.0
David Pastrnak, BOS: 8.2
Viktor Arvidsson, NSH: 8.0
Tomas Tatar, MTL: 7.1
Taylor Hall, BOS: 6.2
Conor Garland, ARI: 6.2
Jesper Bratt, NJD: 5.9
David Perron, STL: 5.7
Claude Giroux, PHI: 5.6
Kyle Connor, WPG: 5.5
Timo Meier, SJS: 5.4
Kirill Kaprizov, MIN: 5.1
Rickard Rakell, ANA: 4.8
Troy Terry, ANA: 4.8
Artemi Panarin, NYR: 4.4
Conor Sheary, WSH: 4.4
Anthony Mantha, WSH: 4.2

DEFEENSE
Charlie McAvoy, BOS: 9.3
Zach Werenski, CBJ: 5.9
Keith Yandle, FLA: 5.6
Filip Hronek, DET: 5.6
Roman Josi, NSH: 5.3
Darnell Nurse, EDM: 5.1
Kevin Shattenkirk, ANA: 4.9
Cam Fowler, ANA: 4.7
Mathew Dumba, MIN: 4.7
Ty Smith, NJD: 4.6
Adam Fox, NYR: 4.6
Quinn Hughes, VAN: 4.5
MacKenzie Weegar, FLA: 4.2
Tyson Barrie, EDM: 4.1

(source: Hockey Reference: https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2021_skaters-advanced.html)
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS BONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2181 500 000 $124 466 023 $0 $3 007 500 $-42 966 023 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
MTL
Tatar, Tomas
4 800 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
NJD
Hughes, Jack
925 000 $
C
UFA - 2
ARI
Keller, Clayton
7 150 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 8
BOS
Hall, Taylor
4 000 000 $
AG
NMC
UFA - 1
COL
MacKinnon, Nathan
6 300 000 $
C, AD
NTC
UFA - 3
BOS
Pastrnak, David
6 666 667 $
AD
UFA - 3
ARI
Garland, Conor
775 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
EDM
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
6 000 000 $
AG, C
UFA - 1
NSH
Arvidsson, Viktor
4 250 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 4
NJD
Bratt, Jesper
2 750 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 2
DAL
Pavelski, Joe
7 000 000 $
AD, C
NMC
UFA - 2
STL
Perron, David
4 000 000 $
AG, AD
NTC
UFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
CBJ
Werenski, Zachary
5 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 2
BOS
McAvoy, Charlie
4 900 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
FLA
Yandle, Keith
6 350 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 3
DET
Hronek, Filip
714 166 $
DD
RFA - 1
NSH
Josi, Roman
9 059 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 8
EDM
Nurse, Darnell
5 600 000 $
DG
UFA - 2
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
PHI
Giroux, Claude
8 275 000 $
AG, C, AD
NMC
UFA - 2
SJS
Hertl, Tomas
5 625 000 $
C, AD
NTC
UFA - 2
ANA
Shattenkirk, Kevin
3 900 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 3
Équipe de réserve
SJS
Meier, Timo
6 000 000 $ (4 925 000 $)
AG, AD
RFA - 3
MIN
Kaprizov, Kirill
925 000 $ (0 $)
AG, AD
UFA - 1
WPG
Connor, Kyle
7 142 857 $ (6 067 857 $)
AG
UFA - 6
EDM
Draisaitl, Leon
8 500 000 $ (7 425 000 $)
C, AG
UFA - 5
MTL
Danault, Phillip
3 083 333 $ (2 008 333 $)
C
UFA - 1

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14 avr. 2021 à 20 h 46
#1
Jack Hughes is Elite
Rejoint: nov. 2017
Messages: 16,870
Mentions "j'aime": 13,159
Jack Hughes wink

He is so underrated
Nhl_oilers a aimé ceci.
14 avr. 2021 à 20 h 49
#2
Toews for Norris
Rejoint: août 2017
Messages: 6,596
Mentions "j'aime": 4,070
relative corsi is kinda flawed imo, it favours top players on teams with no depth and players who get overused on offense when the rest of his team is used in more defensive situations
Chigurrhh a aimé ceci.
14 avr. 2021 à 20 h 52
#3
Rejoint: mars 2019
Messages: 6,647
Mentions "j'aime": 3,379
Quoting: Devil1122
Jack Hughes wink

He is so underrated


He has been so much better! 41GP, 9G, 12A, 21P. Last year he got 21 points In like 60 some games. He needs to practice his face off ability, because 36% is horrible for a top 6 center man.
Devil1122 a aimé ceci.
14 avr. 2021 à 20 h 53
#4
Rejoint: févr. 2021
Messages: 1,892
Mentions "j'aime": 811
Marner and Hyman are the kings of possession how are they not on here?
14 avr. 2021 à 20 h 59
#5
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 14,001
Mentions "j'aime": 5,842
Quoting: moli92
relative corsi is kinda flawed imo, it favours top players on teams with no depth and players who get overused on offense when the rest of his team is used in more defensive situations


Its not relative to one player (or line), but to a whole team, so it does smooth out most of the situational noise.
And all but 5 of these guys are on playoff teams, so 'top players on bad team' is not really fitting.
14 avr. 2021 à 21 h 4
#6
Chiggy
Rejoint: mai 2017
Messages: 1,658
Mentions "j'aime": 560
Quoting: mitchmarner16
Marner and Hyman are the kings of possession how are they not on here?

]

because their team isn't bad enough at possession for their rel possession metrics to stand out.
14 avr. 2021 à 21 h 8
#7
Rejoint: févr. 2021
Messages: 1,892
Mentions "j'aime": 811
Quoting: Chigurrhh
]

because their team isn't bad enough at possession for their rel possession metrics to stand out.

I see, thanks
14 avr. 2021 à 21 h 10
#8
Jack Hughes is Elite
Rejoint: nov. 2017
Messages: 16,870
Mentions "j'aime": 13,159
Quoting: Nhl_oilers
He has been so much better! 41GP, 9G, 12A, 21P. Last year he got 21 points In like 60 some games. He needs to practice his face off ability, because 36% is horrible for a top 6 center man.


I agree. He is brutal on faceoffs. But he has been getting better
Nhl_oilers a aimé ceci.
14 avr. 2021 à 21 h 21
#9
Toews for Norris
Rejoint: août 2017
Messages: 6,596
Mentions "j'aime": 4,070
Quoting: NHLfan10506
Its not relative to one player (or line), but to a whole team


Exactly, guys like Jost/Nichushkin have low (and even negative) relative corsi despite having 57.4% and 61.8% CF% at even strength because they take more defensive matchups for their team and the team as a whole has good possession numbers. Meanwhile guys on DET (and former DET players) like Hronek and Mantha have high relative corsi even with only 50.1% and 49.6% CF% at even strength because they take more offensive minutes and the rest of their teammates have/had bad possesion numbers.

Makes no sense to make it relative to their team (especially when different teams have drastically different baseline averages that you are comparing to) instead of being relative to a replacement level player like other stats like WAR tries to do

Quoting: NHLfan10506
so it does smooth out most of the situational noise.


Thats the opposite of what it does. making it relative to the whole team exaggerates the effects of a certain player who takes significantly more offensive or defensive minutes relative to his teammates. It may average out for players who get balanced minutes relative to their teams, but for guys like Yandle who have crazy high oZS% relative to his team it makes a huge difference when you compare his CF% when on the ice to when hes off the ice when the team generally uses players like Gudas in those defensive situations more often.

Quoting: NHLfan10506
And all but 5 of these guys are on playoff teams, so 'top players on bad team' is not really fitting.


Doesnt have to be a bad team, just "bad depth", or very unbalanced teams like EDM where there is a huge skill/usage difference between McDavid/Drai and their bottom 6. Obviously McDavid and Draisaitl are going to have high relative corsi numbers when you compare them to guys like Gaetan Haas and Zack Kassian. The effects of McDavid and Drai's possession is very exaggerated since it is being compared to a much lower standard than guys like Svechnikov who play on much deeper teams
SevenLeg et bhavikp27 a aimé ceci.
14 avr. 2021 à 21 h 50
#10
Opie
Rejoint: mai 2017
Messages: 1,125
Mentions "j'aime": 478
Quoting: Devil1122
Jack Hughes wink

He is so underrated


I dunno ... he is equal parts amazing and frustrating to watch. His vision/anticipation, passing & skating are otherworldly... but the 19 year old, sloppy, giveaways are so frustrating. I understand chances need to be taken to produce the spectacular, but I look forward to a more mature playing style in the future. The mistakes are just too costly if/when the playoffs (one day) come along.
The compete and drive are obviously there. Time is on his side & I believe he will not be under-rated for long ... but the giveaways need to stop.
Hischier / Hughes definitely looks bright. Great change up/complimentary styles.
Devil1122 a aimé ceci.
14 avr. 2021 à 22 h 9
#11
Jack Hughes is Elite
Rejoint: nov. 2017
Messages: 16,870
Mentions "j'aime": 13,159
Quoting: Opie
I dunno ... he is equal parts amazing and frustrating to watch. His vision/anticipation, passing & skating are otherworldly... but the 19 year old, sloppy, giveaways are so frustrating. I understand chances need to be taken to produce the spectacular, but I look forward to a more mature playing style in the future. The mistakes are just too costly if/when the playoffs (one day) come along.
The compete and drive are obviously there. Time is on his side & I believe he will not be under-rated for long ... but the giveaways need to stop.
Hischier / Hughes definitely looks bright. Great change up/complimentary styles.


I agree. The giveaways are annoying. He leads the league in giveaways per game, but you got to remember. He's only 19. And he is the center of the whole Devils offense. Almost all of the defenses in the East are pretty good and focus their game plan to stop Hughes. This would lead to turnovers which is understandable. As Hughes grows as a player and gets better linemates (Holtz and Foote/Mercer), he would reduce his turnovers
14 avr. 2021 à 22 h 18
#12
Opie
Rejoint: mai 2017
Messages: 1,125
Mentions "j'aime": 478
Quoting: Devil1122
I agree. The giveaways are annoying. He leads the league in giveaways per game, but you got to remember. He's only 19. And he is the center of the whole Devils offense. Almost all of the defenses in the East are pretty good and focus their game plan to stop Hughes. This would lead to turnovers which is understandable. As Hughes grows as a player and gets better linemates (Holtz and Foote/Mercer), he would reduce his turnovers


He doesn't have a choice, if winning is important to him.
14 avr. 2021 à 22 h 46
#13
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 14,001
Mentions "j'aime": 5,842
Quoting: Opie
I dunno ... he is equal parts amazing and frustrating to watch. His vision/anticipation, passing & skating are otherworldly... but the 19 year old, sloppy, giveaways are so frustrating. I understand chances need to be taken to produce the spectacular, but I look forward to a more mature playing style in the future. The mistakes are just too costly if/when the playoffs (one day) come along.
The compete and drive are obviously there. Time is on his side & I believe he will not be under-rated for long ... but the giveaways need to stop.
Hischier / Hughes definitely looks bright. Great change up/complimentary styles.


Quoting: Devil1122
I agree. The giveaways are annoying. He leads the league in giveaways per game, but you got to remember. He's only 19. And he is the center of the whole Devils offense. Almost all of the defenses in the East are pretty good and focus their game plan to stop Hughes. This would lead to turnovers which is understandable. As Hughes grows as a player and gets better linemates (Holtz and Foote/Mercer), he would reduce his turnovers


His giveaways/takeaways are nearly identical to Marner’s. As the team develops around him, the chances will turn into points.
14 avr. 2021 à 22 h 57
#14
You know nothing JS
Rejoint: janv. 2017
Messages: 3,974
Mentions "j'aime": 2,256
Proof that the advanced stats cult members follow a false idol.
14 avr. 2021 à 22 h 59
#15
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 14,001
Mentions "j'aime": 5,842
Quoting: jpsnow13
Proof that the advanced stats cult members follow a false idol.


It’s like food groups.
Too much of one of them is bad.
But you need a bit of all of them.
14 avr. 2021 à 23 h 6
#16
You know nothing JS
Rejoint: janv. 2017
Messages: 3,974
Mentions "j'aime": 2,256
Quoting: NHLfan10506
It’s like food groups.
Too much of one of them is bad.
But you need a bit of all of them.


Well, usually someone use them here, it's for nit-picking, isolating one stat that fit their narrative, because no meaningfull debate can happen when someone throws numbers around.
14 avr. 2021 à 23 h 18
#17
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 14,001
Mentions "j'aime": 5,842
Quoting: jpsnow13
Well, usually someone use them here, it's for nit-picking, isolating one stat that fit their narrative, because no meaningfull debate can happen when someone throws numbers around.


Just one piece of the puzzle.
Especially for us amateur GMs.
15 avr. 2021 à 10 h 36
#18
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 14,001
Mentions "j'aime": 5,842
From The Draft Analyst, Steve Kournianos:

Quoting: Steve
"In terms of advanced numbers, Hughes has been a possession driver and shot generator with a team-best 58.6 Corsi-For percentage, a +8.9 percent Corsi-For relative to his teammates, and the second-most shot attempts (180). Holding onto the puck as often as Hughes does has its drawbacks, as his 44 giveaways at 5-on-5 is the second most among all NHL forwards (with Toronto star Mitch Marner being first, by the way). Another concern is the fact that he leads the team with 2:54 of power-play time a game, yet the Devils are an abysmal 29th in scoring during the man advantage."


Source: The Draft Analyst

He re-ranks 2019 draft: 1. Hughes, 2. Kakko, 3. Dach
(shocker)

@Opie @Devil1122 He took my post almost word for word...even the point about Marner! Haha.

Thanks Steve.
Devil1122 a aimé ceci.
15 avr. 2021 à 11 h 24
#19
Jack Hughes is Elite
Rejoint: nov. 2017
Messages: 16,870
Mentions "j'aime": 13,159
Quoting: NHLfan10506
From The Draft Analyst, Steve Kournianos:



Source: The Draft Analyst

He re-ranks 2019 draft: 1. Hughes, 2. Kakko, 3. Dach
(shocker)

@Opie @Devil1122 He took my post almost word for word...even the point about Marner! Haha.

Thanks Steve.


I agree with this. Hughes is so good at getting possession and generating plays, however when he holds onto the puck for too long, he turns the puck over. He needs to learn when to shoot instead of trying to make a play. Take for example the Rangers game. If Hughes didn't play we would have gotten blown out. Without Hughes on the ice, we got out shot greatly. But we couldn't score because we didn't get many quality chances. Hughes needs start shooting more. I like what Sharangovich does, he enters the zone and shoots
15 avr. 2021 à 11 h 35
#20
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 14,001
Mentions "j'aime": 5,842
Quoting: Devil1122
I agree with this. Hughes is so good at getting possession and generating plays, however when he holds onto the puck for too long, he turns the puck over. He needs to learn when to shoot instead of trying to make a play. Take for example the Rangers game. If Hughes didn't play we would have gotten blown out. Without Hughes on the ice, we got out shot greatly. But we couldn't score because we didn't get many quality chances. Hughes needs start shooting more. I like what Sharangovich does, he enters the zone and shoots


Yeah, love Sharangovich’s game right now. He has one long wrist shot with power and another quick release one.

I am ok with the amount of turnovers Hughes is giving up, because he has the puck on his stick longer than anyone in NHL (with 4-5 exceptions). And he is among league leaders in takeaways too.
Devil1122 a aimé ceci.
 
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