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The year they finally start contending

Créé par: BeterChiarelli
Équipe: 2021-22 Oilers d'Edmonton
Date de création initiale: 13 avr. 2021
Publié: 13 avr. 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Draft pick value suggests there's a deficit in Detroit's favour by upgrading its late seconds: Edmonton tacks on a promising B-prospect and a mid-round pick in 2022 to accommodate the Red Wings taking on a more affordable James Neal. The price is cash-equivalent to what Detroit got in return for taking on Marc Staal while ensuring Edmonton gets a fair deal for downgrading it's first round pick. I'm assuming the Oilers picks involved are #20 and #52, and the Rangers pick is #48 overall. Detroit gets the benefit of a higher quality player while Edmonton finds more draft quantity: the percentage of the picks turning into NHL players is in favour of the Red Wings as well.

I'm not sure if this is a move the Rangers would make this summer (most likely next) but as much as it pains them to lose Buchnevich, their team is going to quickly become more and more expensive. Trading Buchnevich for two cheap bottom-six wingers and quality draft capital pushes their rebuild further along, opens up top-six roles for both Kakko and Kravtsov, and gives the Rangers the cap space to add a one-year upgrade to anywhere on their roster before handing out big boy contracts to those who need them. The Rangers may even be at the point in their rebuild where that pick allows them to outbid other teams for Eichel or acquire a cornerstone LHD to vault them up the Metropolitan standings.

With the Lightning so close to the cap on a good day, Stalock's sub-$800k cap hit should be enticing to them and the near-last pick of the 2022 draft is returned.

Top-six to dominate, third line to eat sheltered offensive-zone minutes, and the fourth line takes the tough defensive-zone minutes. Benson and Holloway split the season at #3LW. Each pairing has both a puck-mover and a more stay-at-home defender. Grubauer to take maybe 50% of the starts over the year, Koskinen and both Konovalov and Skinner to take the remaining half. Winner of Ilya vs Stuart takes the backup role next season.

The current setup I have here is 43 contracts deep: the loss of draft capital will have to be offset by some CHL, European, and NCAA free agent signings until 2023. There's enough on the roster and currently in the pipeline to keep the Oilers strong for a while before they need to start looking for additional prospects.

If Lagesson isn't flipped by the deadline, he can be moved at the draft for a mid-round pick. Broberg and Samorukov to alternate on the #3LD next season. So long as Archibald and Ryan are replaced with sub-$1M contracts next season, the cap works. I have the Oilers projected to come in next season at just under $80M. Expiry of dead cap makes the final season of the flat cap era tolerable for the Oilers and there shouldn't be any major subtractions from the roster in order to accomodate extensions to Bouchard, Broberg, and Konovalov/Skinner. Klefbom and Larsson are likely replaced by a strong RHD to pair with Broberg.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
LISTE DE RÉSERVEANSCAP HIT
3925 000 $
3925 000 $
3925 000 $
3925 000 $
3925 000 $
2925 000 $
2925 000 $
RFAANSCAP HIT
2850 000 $
55 000 000 $
21 200 000 $
2850 000 $
2850 000 $
33 000 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
45 000 000 $
11 500 000 $
23 500 000 $
66 500 000 $
11 250 000 $
Transactions
1.
EDM
    Seattle
    2.
    EDM
    1. Choix de 2e ronde en 2021 (EDM)
    2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2021 (NYR)
    DET
    1. Neal, James (2 000 000 $ retained)
    2. Tullio, Tyler [Liste de réserve]
    3. Choix de 1e ronde en 2021 (EDM)
    4. Choix de 3e ronde en 2022 (EDM)
    3.
    EDM
    1. Buchnevich, Pavel [Droits de RFA]
    NYR
    1. Kahun, Dominik [Droits de RFA]
    2. Marody, Cooper [Droits de RFA]
    3. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (EDM)
    4.
    EDM
    1. Choix de 7e ronde en 2022 (TBL)
    Rachats de contrats
    Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
    Enfoui
    Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
    2021
    Logo de NYR
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de PIT
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    2022
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de TBL
    2023
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de EDM
    TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
    2381 500 000 $80 708 839 $669 339 $907 500 $791 161 $

    Formation

    Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    1 175 000 $1 175 000 $
    AD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    12 500 000 $12 500 000 $
    C
    UFA - 5
    5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
    AG, AD, C
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
    AG, C
    UFA - 8
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    8 500 000 $8 500 000 $
    C, AG
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
    AD
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    925 000 $925 000 $
    AG, C
    RFA - 3
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    834 167 $834 167 $ (Bonis de performance57 500 $$58K)
    C
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    1 200 000 $1 200 000 $
    AG, C
    UFA - 2
    1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
    C, AD
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    3 200 000 $3 200 000 $
    AD
    UFA - 3
    Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    5 600 000 $5 600 000 $
    DG
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 1
    5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
    G
    UFA - 6
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    4 167 000 $4 167 000 $
    DG
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
    G
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
    DD
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
    DG/DD
    UFA - 2
    Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    850 000 $850 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    850 000 $850 000 $
    AG, C, AD
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
    725 000 $725 000 $
    DG/DD
    UFA - 1

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    13 avr. 2021 à 17 h 15
    #1
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    rangers say no to any package involving buch without holloway
    aedoran a aimé ceci.
    13 avr. 2021 à 17 h 18
    #2
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    no thanks - signed the Detroit Red Wings
    13 avr. 2021 à 17 h 22
    #3
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    Holland said he isn't trading this years 1st.
    13 avr. 2021 à 17 h 36
    #4
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    You pay us for taking Neal...a lot. We don't give you anything in return.
    13 avr. 2021 à 18 h 35
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    Quoting: Vermathex
    rangers say no to any package involving buch without holloway


    Thats fair I guess. Again, wasn't sure if he was even available.

    Quoting: aedoran
    Holland said he isn't trading this years 1st.


    For a rental. He wants long-term value out of that pick. To me that suggests a player with term or downgrading it for additional picks.

    Quoting: RedWing9119
    You pay us for taking Neal...a lot. We don't give you anything in return.


    Given how much cap space and cash dollars are being traded for, this represents equivalent value. I'll break the math down for you if you want, but refrain from acting like Detroit gets nothing out of this deal. It's laughable.
    13 avr. 2021 à 18 h 41
    #6
    Jaromir_Jagr_the_leg
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Thats fair I guess. Again, wasn't sure if he was even available.


    He likely isn’t available but if he were it would likely have to include Holloway
    For a rental. He wants long-term value out of that pick. To me that suggests a player with term or downgrading it for additional picks.



    Given how much cap space and cash dollars are being traded for, this represents equivalent value. I'll break the math down for you if you want, but refrain from acting like Detroit gets nothing out of this deal. It's laughable.
    13 avr. 2021 à 18 h 46
    #7
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    I approve of everything. Trading Neal with retention makes sense. Some people want to dump Neal, some people want to buy him out. Trading him with $2m retained meets in the middle. I also think we might need to trade for the right fit in the top 6, Buchnevich would be great if Holland managed to add him
    13 avr. 2021 à 20 h 16
    #8
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Thats fair I guess. Again, wasn't sure if he was even available.



    For a rental. He wants long-term value out of that pick. To me that suggests a player with term or downgrading it for additional picks.



    Given how much cap space and cash dollars are being traded for, this represents equivalent value. I'll break the math down for you if you want, but refrain from acting like Detroit gets nothing out of this deal. It's laughable.


    Not interested in your "math". It's 11.5 million in cap over two years for a useless player, in a covid world. There is NO "math" that gets you out of that contract that easily.
    13 avr. 2021 à 21 h 3
    #9
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    Quoting: RedWing9119
    Not interested in your "math". It's 11.5 million in cap over two years for a useless player, in a covid world. There is NO "math" that gets you out of that contract that easily.


    It's $7.5M over two years: Edmonton's retaining $2M per year. To the consideration of the draft pick values, please look to this: https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

    Edmonton's #20 pick has a value of 14.44. The #48 pick has a value of 4.48 and the #52 pick has a value of 4.43. Simply downgrading Edmonton's first creates a deficit of 5.53, which is close to the value of the #34 pick. Detroit has two options: give up their own 2nd rounder or bridge that gap in value elsewheres. Personally, and statistically, those 3 seconds are more likely to produce an NHL player than the Oilers 1st and giving 3 picks away for one doesn't make a lot of sense either. So what kind of negative value can Edmonton send instead? Bad cap. It's a very easy connection.

    With Edmonton slated to retain $4M over the remainder of the contract, Neal is left owed $7.5M. If we use Marc Staal as a reference, his owed cash of $3.2M was worth the #48 pick that the Rangers sent. If $3.2M is thus worth a draft pick value of 4.48, then the algebra follows that Neal's remaining $7.5M is worth a draft pick value of 10.5. This value closely approximates the #30 pick and thus makes sense: players like Neal often require a first round pick to be rid of, and teams are more apt to burn a late first to do it.

    Adding Neal into this trade creates a swing in deficit value and we're now looking at Edmonton needing to make up a draft pick value of 4.97. I bridge this value with Ty Tullio and Edmonton's 2022 3rd Round Pick. I find it reasonable to assume that the strength of the draft class cancels out any chance Edmonton has of that pick being higher than this year's equivalent and I assume the value of pick #82, 2.38. Mathematically, the deficit now stands at 2.69, equivalent to pick #72. Between the value of Ty Tullio (who ranked much higher than where he went in last year's draft) and any possible value Neal may provide the Red Wings over his final two seasons, this trade should be considered mathematically fair.

    Because of the Red Wings' salary situation, your allusion to his being useless in a Covid cap situation is incredibly redundant. The Red Wings will not be a team looking to get near the cap ceiling, and instead, due to the value of ELC contracts will be much closer to the cap floor. There's more than enough room here to accommodate Neal, even if it means burying him or buying him out. There is no overlap with any upcoming major contracts, and if anything gives the Red Wings a live body to ice and keep a developing prospect in (hopefully) a more positive environment in Grand Rapids.

    I don't personally care for your feelings: the deal is sound whether or not you like the idea of taking on 2 years of Neal at sub-$4M per. The Red Wings walk away with a higher quality prospect and Edmonton finds draft quantity and a way out from under most of Neal's deal. Both sides win.
    13 avr. 2021 à 21 h 24
    #10
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    It's $7.5M over two years: Edmonton's retaining $2M per year. To the consideration of the draft pick values, please look to this: https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

    Edmonton's #20 pick has a value of 14.44. The #48 pick has a value of 4.48 and the #52 pick has a value of 4.43. Simply downgrading Edmonton's first creates a deficit of 5.53, which is close to the value of the #34 pick. Detroit has two options: give up their own 2nd rounder or bridge that gap in value elsewheres. Personally, and statistically, those 3 seconds are more likely to produce an NHL player than the Oilers 1st and giving 3 picks away for one doesn't make a lot of sense either. So what kind of negative value can Edmonton send instead? Bad cap. It's a very easy connection.

    With Edmonton slated to retain $4M over the remainder of the contract, Neal is left owed $7.5M. If we use Marc Staal as a reference, his owed cash of $3.2M was worth the #48 pick that the Rangers sent. If $3.2M is thus worth a draft pick value of 4.48, then the algebra follows that Neal's remaining $7.5M is worth a draft pick value of 10.5. This value closely approximates the #30 pick and thus makes sense: players like Neal often require a first round pick to be rid of, and teams are more apt to burn a late first to do it.

    Adding Neal into this trade creates a swing in deficit value and we're now looking at Edmonton needing to make up a draft pick value of 4.97. I bridge this value with Ty Tullio and Edmonton's 2022 3rd Round Pick. I find it reasonable to assume that the strength of the draft class cancels out any chance Edmonton has of that pick being higher than this year's equivalent and I assume the value of pick #82, 2.38. Mathematically, the deficit now stands at 2.69, equivalent to pick #72. Between the value of Ty Tullio (who ranked much higher than where he went in last year's draft) and any possible value Neal may provide the Red Wings over his final two seasons, this trade should be considered mathematically fair.

    Because of the Red Wings' salary situation, your allusion to his being useless in a Covid cap situation is incredibly redundant. The Red Wings will not be a team looking to get near the cap ceiling, and instead, due to the value of ELC contracts will be much closer to the cap floor. There's more than enough room here to accommodate Neal, even if it means burying him or buying him out. There is no overlap with any upcoming major contracts, and if anything gives the Red Wings a live body to ice and keep a developing prospect in (hopefully) a more positive environment in Grand Rapids.

    I don't personally care for your feelings: the deal is sound whether or not you like the idea of taking on 2 years of Neal at sub-$4M per. The Red Wings walk away with a higher quality prospect and Edmonton finds draft quantity and a way out from under most of Neal's deal. Both sides win.


    Funny how I said I wasn't interested in your math and you shared it anyway. The Wings got a fourth round pick for 250,000 in salary. You do the math.
    13 avr. 2021 à 23 h 19
    #11
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    Quoting: RedWing9119
    Funny how I said I wasn't interested in your math and you shared it anyway. The Wings got a fourth round pick for 250,000 in salary. You do the math.


    Mostly because I find your stubbornness amusing. For the record, Detroit retained $1.0625M of Savard's deal, not $250,000. Now that you have asked me to do the math...

    I took the opportunity to graph out six known points of data that we have available to us:

    $0 in retained salary means no additional pick is exchanged, and thus 0,0 must be a point in our graph (this is more of a mathematical thing but it makes sense).
    The TBL 4th Detroit got in exchange for retaining $1.0625M is currently 126th overall, DPV of 0.91
    I'm approximating the 2022 BUF 5th SJS got for retaining $1.125M to be 129th overall, DPV of 0.90
    The TOR 4th SJS got in exchange for retaining $1.375M is currently 123rd overall, DPV of 0.92
    The NYR 2nd Detroit got in exchange for Marc Staal's $3.2M is currently 48th overall, DPV of 4.48
    TOR sent its 2020 1st to dump the cap hit*** of Marleau in exchange for what was supposed to be the #18 pick, DPV of 16.87, and would have been save for the play-in round. Circumstance aside, making this distinction is important.

    I must add as a caveat, I have assumed the values of the AHL players San Jose moved as part of this deal to be worth the same as the last pick in the draft (DPV = 0.44). This is the lowest value we have available to correlate to these players, and despite how little they're worth, they still have value.

    This results in the 2nd order polynomial trendline equation of Pick Value = (4E-13)*salary^2 + (3E-7)*salary , which mathematically behaves similarly to the graph of draft pick values: higher salary equals higher pick value. This equation has an R-squared value of 0.9976, suggesting that it's following the data we're working with *very* closely.

    I have to admit that in order for the trade to work as I've proposed, the Red Wings will buy Neal out. If he's such a drag as you're assuming, this is probably the most optimal choice for both clubs as he'd only be in the way of a prospect possibly playing for the Red Wings. If we consider the business end of things, it's the more cash-effective option for the Red Wings too. Not buying Neal out pushes the DPV up to around 25: this makes less sense for Olympia Holdings and the Oilers. The extra $2.5M is an expense the Red Wings' organization doesn't need, and Edmonton doesn't have the horses to accommodate that kind of dump.

    Thus, if I test this equation against the Red Wings buying out a retained Neal's remaining $7.5M ($5M spread over 4 years), that formula spits out a value of 11.5. There's a minor discrepancy with my more linear value of 10.5, but only to the tune of 1.00 (approximately Pick #113).

    The solution here is I add another low-end prospect to the trade and we're done with it all. The Oilers are currently shy on picks, so it's that or a 2023 pick. Your choice. It's nowhere near as exorbitant a price as you're making it out to be.

    I do however, appreciate you keeping me honest. A linear comparison across Staal and Neal's salaries was too simplistic of an approach and this does add a more "realistic" approach.
    14 avr. 2021 à 6 h 52
    #12
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Mostly because I find your stubbornness amusing. For the record, Detroit retained $1.0625M of Savard's deal, not $250,000. Now that you have asked me to do the math...

    I took the opportunity to graph out six known points of data that we have available to us:

    $0 in retained salary means no additional pick is exchanged, and thus 0,0 must be a point in our graph (this is more of a mathematical thing but it makes sense).
    The TBL 4th Detroit got in exchange for retaining $1.0625M is currently 126th overall, DPV of 0.91
    I'm approximating the 2022 BUF 5th SJS got for retaining $1.125M to be 129th overall, DPV of 0.90
    The TOR 4th SJS got in exchange for retaining $1.375M is currently 123rd overall, DPV of 0.92
    The NYR 2nd Detroit got in exchange for Marc Staal's $3.2M is currently 48th overall, DPV of 4.48
    TOR sent its 2020 1st to dump the cap hit*** of Marleau in exchange for what was supposed to be the #18 pick, DPV of 16.87, and would have been save for the play-in round. Circumstance aside, making this distinction is important.

    I must add as a caveat, I have assumed the values of the AHL players San Jose moved as part of this deal to be worth the same as the last pick in the draft (DPV = 0.44). This is the lowest value we have available to correlate to these players, and despite how little they're worth, they still have value.

    This results in the 2nd order polynomial trendline equation of Pick Value = (4E-13)*salary^2 + (3E-7)*salary , which mathematically behaves similarly to the graph of draft pick values: higher salary equals higher pick value. This equation has an R-squared value of 0.9976, suggesting that it's following the data we're working with *very* closely.

    I have to admit that in order for the trade to work as I've proposed, the Red Wings will buy Neal out. If he's such a drag as you're assuming, this is probably the most optimal choice for both clubs as he'd only be in the way of a prospect possibly playing for the Red Wings. If we consider the business end of things, it's the more cash-effective option for the Red Wings too. Not buying Neal out pushes the DPV up to around 25: this makes less sense for Olympia Holdings and the Oilers. The extra $2.5M is an expense the Red Wings' organization doesn't need, and Edmonton doesn't have the horses to accommodate that kind of dump.

    Thus, if I test this equation against the Red Wings buying out a retained Neal's remaining $7.5M ($5M spread over 4 years), that formula spits out a value of 11.5. There's a minor discrepancy with my more linear value of 10.5, but only to the tune of 1.00 (approximately Pick #113).

    The solution here is I add another low-end prospect to the trade and we're done with it all. The Oilers are currently shy on picks, so it's that or a 2023 pick. Your choice. It's nowhere near as exorbitant a price as you're making it out to be.

    I do however, appreciate you keeping me honest. A linear comparison across Staal and Neal's salaries was too simplistic of an approach and this does add a more "realistic" approach.


    Yzerman doesn't have to accept anything from you. Also i noticed that you didn't prorate the salary retained in the Savard deal so it fit your narrative better. Christ Detroit gave you a precedent when they got either a first or a second (depending on how you view it) for taking two years of Richard Panik. And you don't have Seattle as an outlet because they're asking for a first and a good prospect for taking the player you want them to and I guarantee they charge you more for Neal. No my friend I'm afraid you're stuck with him because obviously you haven't come to terms with the cost. But hey I don't have to argue with you about it. I can just sit back and watch it unfold, Have a nice day.
     
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