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Trading Graves pre-expansion draft

Créé par: Richard88
Équipe: 2021-22 Avalanche du Colorado
Date de création initiale: 3 févr. 2021
Publié: 3 févr. 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
LISTE DE RÉSERVEANSCAP HIT
3925 000 $
RFAANSCAP HIT
79 000 000 $
21 600 000 $
21 500 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
45 000 000 $
67 000 000 $
34 000 000 $
Transactions
1.
COL
  1. Choix de 2e ronde en 2021 (CHI)
  2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2022 (CHI)
Détails additionnels:
Trade done after the season but before expansion draft. Erik Johnson waives NMC to count as the Dman exposed in the ExD.
2.
COL
    SEATTLE

    Protected: Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Burakovsky, Kadri, Nichuskin, Jost; Makar, Girard, Toews; Grubauer

    Exposed: Compher, Donskoi, Johnson (waives nmc), Francouz
    Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
    2021
    Logo de COL
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    Logo de COL
    2022
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    Logo de CHI
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    2023
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    Logo de COL
    TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
    2281 500 000 $82 948 963 $1 741 463 $3 125 000 $-1 448 963 $
    Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    7 000 000 $7 000 000 $
    AG, C
    UFA - 8
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    6 300 000 $6 300 000 $
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    9 250 000 $9 250 000 $
    AD, C
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    4 900 000 $4 900 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    4 000 000 $4 000 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 5
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    2 500 000 $2 500 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    925 000 $925 000 $
    C, AG
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
    C, AD
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance425 000 $$425K)
    AD
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
    C
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    725 000 $725 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 1
    Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance2 500 000 $$2M)
    DG/DD
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 6
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
    G
    UFA - 6
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
    DG/DD
    UFA - 6
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    1 600 000 $1 600 000 $
    DD
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    4 100 000 $4 100 000 $
    DG
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
    DD
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 2
    Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance200 000 $$200K)
    C
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
    725 000 $725 000 $
    DG/DD
    UFA - 1

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    3 févr. 2021 à 10 h 59
    #1
    Once a Kings Fan Too
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    I don't understand how Erik Johnson would personally benefit by waiving his NMC and running the risk that he might be transferred from a Stanley-Cup-contender to an expansion team.

    The value for Graves is right on, in my opinion.
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    3 févr. 2021 à 11 h 5
    #2
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    I don't understand how Erik Johnson would personally benefit by waiving his NMC and running the risk that he might be transferred from a Stanley-Cup-contender to an expansion team.

    The value for Graves is right on, in my opinion.


    Seattle's biggest asset by far is capspace, and they aren't going to select a 3rd pairing Dman making $6m for the next 2 seasons. Ron Francis isn't that dumb.
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    3 févr. 2021 à 11 h 6
    #3
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    John 3 16
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    @CrazyK04 Am I right in assuming that you would accept this, based on your earlier AGM roster?
    3 févr. 2021 à 11 h 12
    #4
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    Quoting: Richard88
    Seattle's biggest asset by far is capspace, and they aren't going to select a 3rd pairing Dman making $6m for the next 2 seasons. Ron Francis isn't that dumb.


    To which I say, Trevor van Riemsdyk.
    3 févr. 2021 à 11 h 18
    #5
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    To which I say, Trevor van Riemsdyk.


    How is trading a 2nd round pick for a 26 year old Dman earning $825k even remotely similar to selecting a 33 year old injury prone 3rd pairing Dman making $6m for 2 more years?
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    3 févr. 2021 à 11 h 20
    #6
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    Quoting: Richard88
    Seattle's biggest asset by far is capspace, and they aren't going to select a 3rd pairing Dman making $6m for the next 2 seasons. Ron Francis isn't that dumb.


    This is literally the same thing Sens fans said a million times about Dion back when Vegas came into the League. Even if those points are true, they won't necessarily factor into the player's decision. If a player wants to stay where he is, he has no incentive to waive.
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    3 févr. 2021 à 11 h 20
    #7
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    I don't understand how Erik Johnson would personally benefit by waiving his NMC and running the risk that he might be transferred from a Stanley-Cup-contender to an expansion team.

    The value for Graves is right on, in my opinion.


    Johnson benefits by having a stronger team around him. The way I envision it is that Sakic guarantees that he has a deal in place that will ensure Seattle won't take him. He also makes a handshake promise he won't bury him during the duration of his contract. Only then would he ask EJ to waive.

    It shouldn't really take much, if anything, to keep the Kraken from taking EJ. Throw them a fourth or a decent prospect in exchange for taking Donskoi or Compher and call it a day.
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    3 févr. 2021 à 11 h 58
    #8
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: Claesson4Norris
    This is literally the same thing Sens fans said a million times about Dion back when Vegas came into the League. Even if those points are true, they won't necessarily factor into the player's decision. If a player wants to stay where he is, he has no incentive to waive.


    Johnson's other alternative will be to get waived and bought out, because there's simply no way Sakic exposes one of Makar, Girard, or Toews. I'd say that's plenty of incentive for him to waive his NMC - with a gentlemanly understanding with Sakic that he'll do what it takes to get Seattle not to pick him.
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    3 févr. 2021 à 13 h 35
    #9
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    Quoting: Richard88
    How is trading a 2nd round pick for a 26 year old Dman earning $825k even remotely similar to selecting a 33 year old injury prone 3rd pairing Dman making $6m for 2 more years?


    Because some contender might like to have Erik Johnson for the last two years of his contract. Why should Johnson risk that?
    3 févr. 2021 à 13 h 38
    #10
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    Because some contender might like to have Erik Johnson for the last two years of his contract. Why should Johnson risk that?


    Ah sorry, just realised what you were inferring with Van Riemsdyk. Forgot that it was Vegas who traded him.

    Even so, Seattle would have to retain like 50% to make it feasible for a contender, and given the value of $3m capspace in this league it wouldn't outweigh what they would actually get in return for 33 year old EJ. even at $3m.
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    3 févr. 2021 à 13 h 47
    #11
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    Quoting: Richard88
    Ah sorry, just realised what you were inferring with Van Riemsdyk. Forgot that it was Vegas who traded him.

    Even so, Seattle would have to retain like 50% to make it feasible for a contender, and given the value of $3m capspace in this league it wouldn't outweigh what they would actually get in return for 33 year old EJ. even at $3m.


    Yes, but that's not the point. The issue is whether Johnson should waive his NMC, because he's bearing 100% of the risk, however small, that some team will tell Seattle, Select Johnson and we'll invest a third in him.

    Quoting: Anus_McLeod
    Johnson benefits by having a stronger team around him. The way I envision it is that Sakic guarantees that he has a deal in place that will ensure Seattle won't take him. He also makes a handshake promise he won't bury him during the duration of his contract. Only then would he ask EJ to waive.

    It shouldn't really take much, if anything, to keep the Kraken from taking EJ. Throw them a fourth or a decent prospect in exchange for taking Donskoi or Compher and call it a day.


    Yes, this is the only point I was trying to make: Colorado will want to protect all three of their first-line defensemen. That won't be done by simply asking Johnson to waive his NMC. Either Sakic works out a side deal with Seattle not to take one of them or they protect 8 skaters.
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    3 févr. 2021 à 14 h 0
    #12
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    By the way, I note that you don't pay much attention to people's expansion draft constructions (whereas I look at every single one), so it might interest you to know that my feeling is that at least 75% of them have Devon Toews being Seattle's selection from Colorado, which is why I've invested some thought in this subject.
    3 févr. 2021 à 21 h 56
    #13
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    By the way, I note that you don't pay much attention to people's expansion draft constructions (whereas I look at every single one), so it might interest you to know that my feeling is that at least 75% of them have Devon Toews being Seattle's selection from Colorado, which is why I've invested some thought in this subject.


    Because most of them are working on the assumption EJ doesn't waive, whereas most COL fans believe he will.
    3 févr. 2021 à 23 h 26
    #14
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    Yes, but that's not the point. The issue is whether Johnson should waive his NMC, because he's bearing 100% of the risk, however small, that some team will tell Seattle, Select Johnson and we'll invest a third in him.



    Yes, this is the only point I was trying to make: Colorado will want to protect all three of their first-line defensemen. That won't be done by simply asking Johnson to waive his NMC. Either Sakic works out a side deal with Seattle not to take one of them or they protect 8 skaters.

    If another team offers a 3rd I'm sure Sakic would match that. That's not really a very big incentive either for Seattle considering that Graves would have more value as a trade piece if that's the route they want to go, and with Graves they wouldn't have to retain anything either.

    But you're right about the risk being with Johnson. But I would assume that if he waived that Sakic would provide assurances that he will do whatever it takes to not have him selected.
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    3 févr. 2021 à 23 h 29
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: TJTwolf
    Because most of them are working on the assumption EJ doesn't waive, whereas most COL fans believe he will.


    Yeah I highly doubt it comes down to having to expose Toews. That's a 1st pair Dman earning $4.1m x 4 years, you simply don't let a player like that go for free.

    Going 4+4 would be an option before exposing Toews as well, though not ideal. Landeskog is an UFA as well so Sakic could use that situation to his advantage if needed.
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    4 févr. 2021 à 9 h 11
    #16
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    Quoting: Richard88
    CrazyK04 Am I right in assuming that you would accept this, based on your earlier AGM roster?


    Yeah, I actually would still be willing to add Carlsson or some younger C/B level dman prospect if it came to that, but I was psyched when we dropped a 2nd and 3rd on Shaw so I'd be psyched if we dropped a 2nd and 3rd on Graves who is arguably a more important piece as a 3/4 defenseman.
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    4 févr. 2021 à 9 h 45
    #17
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    Graves will get less considering teams know Colorado will lose him for free in the ED. I’ve said this a few times already but Toews is wildly better and he returned 2x seconds because teams knew NYI needed to move him. Some will say that Colorado don’t need to move him but that’s extremely poor asset management and not rationale.
    4 févr. 2021 à 15 h 5
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: CrazyK04
    Yeah, I actually would still be willing to add Carlsson or some younger C/B level dman prospect if it came to that, but I was psyched when we dropped a 2nd and 3rd on Shaw so I'd be psyched if we dropped a 2nd and 3rd on Graves who is arguably a more important piece as a 3/4 defenseman.


    You mean 2nd + 3rd + Carlsson/prospect for Graves? That's fine too, but I think Avs would be fine with the picks alone.
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    4 févr. 2021 à 15 h 9
    #19
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    Quoting: BStinson
    Graves will get less considering teams know Colorado will lose him for free in the ED. I’ve said this a few times already but Toews is wildly better and he returned 2x seconds because teams knew NYI needed to move him. Some will say that Colorado don’t need to move him but that’s extremely poor asset management and not rationale.


    Teams also knew that Avs needed to move Zadorov but that didn't stop Sakic from extracting a top 6 forward for him from Chicago.

    Teams knew that NYI needed to move Toews, but nobody had capspace last offseason because the flat cap came suddenly. Toews was also an RFA with only 1 year of team control which reduced the price quite a bit. Conversely Graves has cost certainty for the next 2 years which is a big deal to GM's.

    This coming offseason teams will be more prepared as they'll have had a year to prepare and let some guys contracts expire, so the trade market won't be as difficult. I doubt we see guys like Schmidt moved for a 3rd round pick again this summer.
    4 févr. 2021 à 16 h 14
    #20
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    Quoting: Richard88
    Teams also knew that Avs needed to move Zadorov but that didn't stop Sakic from extracting a top 6 forward for him from Chicago.

    Teams knew that NYI needed to move Toews, but nobody had capspace last offseason because the flat cap came suddenly. Toews was also an RFA with only 1 year of team control which reduced the price quite a bit. Conversely Graves has cost certainty for the next 2 years which is a big deal to GM's.

    This coming offseason teams will be more prepared as they'll have had a year to prepare and let some guys contracts expire, so the trade market won't be as difficult. I doubt we see guys like Schmidt moved for a 3rd round pick again this summer.

    Counter point, teams know Colorado can’t protect Graves nor has he looked good away from Makar. Cost certainty is only beneficial when the deal is a bargain, are we sure Graves is a bargain? +/- has no direct correlation with performance. He’s had one year of experience but how much of that is attributed to his partner? Teams also know you don’t want a 3M+ player on your third pairing with cap space at an all time high and valuable extensions looming.

    Colorado wasn’t the only team that had cap space for Toews at the time of the trade. AVs have very little leverage in this scenario and I get it, no one wants to “lose” a trade. Schmidt was moved for a third because AP > Schmidt and MAF cost way too much to move.
    4 févr. 2021 à 16 h 21
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: BStinson
    Counter point, teams know Colorado can’t protect Graves nor has he looked good away from Makar. Cost certainty is only beneficial when the deal is a bargain, are we sure Graves is a bargain? +/- has no direct correlation with performance. He’s had one year of experience but how much of that is attributed to his partner? Teams also know you don’t want a 3M+ player on your third pairing with cap space at an all time high and valuable extensions looming.

    Colorado wasn’t the only team that had cap space for Toews at the time of the trade. AVs have very little leverage in this scenario and I get it, no one wants to “lose” a trade. Schmidt was moved for a third because AP > Schmidt and MAF cost way too much to move.


    Pretty sure Sakic will find a way to get the team out ahead in the Expansion situation. He's a very savvy GM.
    4 févr. 2021 à 16 h 26
    #22
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    Quoting: Richard88
    Pretty sure Sakic will find a way to get the team out ahead in the Expansion situation. He's a very savvy GM.

    I never said he wasn’t but rather questioned the logic behind your ACGM.
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    4 févr. 2021 à 16 h 31
    #23
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: BStinson
    I never said he wasn’t but rather questioned the logic behind your ACGM.


    smile

    The thing is that Colorado don't actually NEED to trade Graves. Avs simply have to lose one of Compher/Donskoi/Graves but it could be any of those 3 and likely one gets taken by Seattle. We could easily roll into next season with Graves on the 3rd pairing assuming that contracts are reasonably close to what I've predicted in this AGM.
    4 févr. 2021 à 20 h 35
    #24
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    Quoting: Richard88
    smile

    The thing is that Colorado don't actually NEED to trade Graves. Avs simply have to lose one of Compher/Donskoi/Graves but it could be any of those 3 and likely one gets taken by Seattle. We could easily roll into next season with Graves on the 3rd pairing assuming that contracts are reasonably close to what I've predicted in this AGM.

    Which fine, I’m merely questioning the value for Graves pre-expansion draft. You have to determine the difference between that third defensemen protected and Graves, if it’s substantial then maybe they cough up a second rounder but if it’s not then that poor asset management. Do I think Sakic can maximize the return, yes but I’m trying to be realistic based on what’ve seen. Out of those three Graves probably has the highest appeal as both Compher and Donskoi are over paid.
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    5 févr. 2021 à 4 h 18
    #25
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    John 3 16
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    Quoting: BStinson
    Which fine, I’m merely questioning the value for Graves pre-expansion draft. You have to determine the difference between that third defensemen protected and Graves, if it’s substantial then maybe they cough up a second rounder but if it’s not then that poor asset management. Do I think Sakic can maximize the return, yes but I’m trying to be realistic based on what’ve seen. Out of those three Graves probably has the highest appeal as both Compher and Donskoi are over paid.


    That's fair. A team like Chicago for example would have to protect Graves instead of Zadorov essentially (assuming Seabrook waives his NMC, because why wouldn't he? Nobody wants his contract). Maybe that's not worth a 2nd + 3rd for them at the time. Then again, if Graves is someone they really want, they might be better off moving early for him rather than waiting until Seattle takes him and trying to strike a trade directly with them for him when they'd likely have a lot more competition from other teams looking to re-stock their D group immediately after the expansion draft.

    Fwiw if the scathing article critiquing Zadorov by a Chicago fan linked below is anything to go off then it seems like Chicago would be happy to protect Graves instead of Zadorov. The fact that Zadorov is an RFA also impacts his attractiveness to Seattle, given that they can only select maximum 10 RFA/UFA's. Would they really want to use one of their 10 non-contracted selections on him when there are going to be a lot of other better RFA's available? Chicago might be willing to take that risk in order to secure Graves as their 2 LD next season.

    https://blackhawkup.com/2021/02/03/nikita-zadorov-doesnt-match-blackhawks-playstyle/

    Chicago wouldn't be the only team in on him either btw. A team like Arizona who will lose most of their D group to UFA this offseason might think it's worth acquiring Graves seeing as they're going to have several protection spots available for Dmen.
     
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