Quoting: Alfie11
Can someone explain why Dunn is a top 4 D? His time on ice statistics consistently have him as a 3rd pair D, and not a 3rd pair that’s run evenly with the other pairs (6th most atoi last year, 5th this year, in both cases 3+ minutes below the guy ahead of him even including his PP2 time). If he’s a 3rd pair guy that can run PP2 but needs sheltered even strength ice time and no PK capabilities that’s fine, there’s some value there, but there’s no need to pretend he’s a good top 4 D when he’s never been deployed in that manner. I don’t see any of these teams giving up this much for him, it definitely won’t be a multi-piece deal (at least not multiple good pieces, 1st+B prospect I just can’t see happening) and STL would be lucky to get a late 1st for him imo.
So the thing with Dunn is that he has incredible underlying analytics in the very sheltered role that he has had, among the best in the league. When those are adjusted for quality of competition and time on ice, it would appear that he should be able to handle a bigger role. But, as you said, he's never been deployed that way, and you don't really know until you know. I would just rather know because the Blues played him there than because the Rangers or whoever played him there. I don't think our other options for the top four are overwhelmingly better.
The analytics would suggest that Dunn needs no sheltered time at even strength. There's been a lot of noise about him getting walked a few games ago and like that's bad and I would like him to not do that but defensemen get walked all the time. Pietrangelo got beat by Kyrou just last night and no one is super upset about that because Pietrangelo has pedigree. The thing is Dunn doesn't normally have to make those kinds of 1 on 1 plays because when he's on the ice, he controls a lot of the possession metrics. There's inherent value in something not happening when he's on the ice as there is something that is happening. It's like when goalies make an incredible save, it's usually because they're out of position in the first place,, but really good goaltending isn't going to result in those kind of sprawling plays because they're just in position all the time. If the Blues have the puck most of the time when Dunn is on the ice, he doesn't need to make these incredible defensive plays very often, and that's good because he's clearly not that good at them on the occasions that they do happen, and that sticks in people's minds.
The Blues, meanwhile, have every right to set the asking price very high and I am glad they are doing so. The upside on Dunn is still high enough that it's worth it. He's had similar results to Toews and Toews got two seconds, which I think was too low of a price to begin with.