As a coach you can scratch a guy for having a terrible game. It sends a message. Dunn was awful in the 2nd game vs LAK; 2 terrible plays that immediately turned into goals against. He earned that scratch. That being said, this one could be a little deeper since Dunn's name was out there during the offseason, and he is chronologically sandwiched between Krug and Perunovich who provide the same skillset for this team.
So if they trade him, what can they realistically expect to get back? He's a great skater, plays with an edge, loves to have the puck and make plays, and at age 24 and <$2m on his deal he's just peaking in value. He's also becoming known for terrible turnovers and mistakes. And other than the minutes he played with Pietrangelo when the Blues needed a goal, he has mostly been sheltered on the 3rd pair by the coaching staff. Any team interested would have to believe that his abilities outshine his red flags. Based on the trajectories of guys like Dougie Hamilton, Darnell Nurse, etc. - guys that were concerning in their first 200 NHL games but have since blossomed into bigger roles - I personally think that he would be well worth the risk at this point in his career.
Prashanth Iyer has Dunn's contract value clocked at 7 (https://twitter.com/iyer_prashanth/status/1354229168393908226?s=20). For reference, Laine and Roslovic were worth a combined 7.2 in his model, and PLD contract was worth 11.4 (https://twitter.com/iyer_prashanth/status/1353010487747870721?s=20).
So he has a good amount of value - it falls within the range of a middle-of-the-round first round pick, which is apparently the ask that has been leaked through Friedman and co.
What can the Blues get back? For starters, it wouldn't include any cap unless they don't plan on bringing Tarasenko back until the playoffs. He is being re-evaluated in mid-Feb and appears to be on track in his recovery. It won't include a replacement defenseman - Parayko, Krug, Faulk, Scandella, Gunnarsson, Bortuzzo, and Mikkola are all on the NHL roster and Perunovich should be knocking on the door once he gets a taste of pro hockey. Would they consider a hockey trade? They have plenty of depth at center, and at wing if Tarasenko can return. Maybe they consider a young winger like a DeBrusk or Buchnevich, if they'd be available for any reason, who knows.
If they trade Dunn - a task that they aren't required to rush to complete - I think they could get back a conditional 1st round pick that ensures it is in the value range that they want (i.e. a pick in the 10-20 range) and a prospect/contract that they've done their homework on.
Do I want this to happen? No. Is it looking like it's only a matter of time? Kinda.
Dunn definitely isn’t the guy to get rid of. The mismanagement of the Blues blueline has been awful since the Faulk trade
Yeah, it has been pretty poor. Makes you wonder what they don't see in Dunn that they had to go out and get Krug. And before that, they gave Scandella the extension rather than give Dunn an opportunity.
Personally, I can live with Dunn's style of play. He has gotten beat badly 1v1 a few times and he has fudged some outlet passes that hang him out to dry, but overall he is making a positive impact when the puck is on his stick, and he pairs well with a stay-at-home guy like Bortuzzo, Gunnarsson, or Scandella. His mistakes are more obvious to the eye than some of our other d-men, but you could make the case that the subtle ones that I've noticed from other guys (poor positioning, poor clearances, bad penalties, blown coverage) done more frequently, are just as bad or worse (and that's my pro-analytics take without bringing up analytics heh).
a first + a prospect for a guy who has been so bad he was healthy scratched? I get he was good last year but as you said he was sheltered. Best case your looking at a prospect + 2nd
Yeah, it has been pretty poor. Makes you wonder what they don't see in Dunn that they had to go out and get Krug. And before that, they gave Scandella the extension rather than give Dunn an opportunity.
Personally, I can live with Dunn's style of play. He has gotten beat badly 1v1 a few times and he has fudged some outlet passes that hang him out to dry, but overall he is making a positive impact when the puck is on his stick, and he pairs well with a stay-at-home guy like Bortuzzo, Gunnarsson, or Scandella. His mistakes are more obvious to the eye than some of our other d-men, but you could make the case that the subtle ones that I've noticed from other guys (poor positioning, poor clearances, bad penalties, blown coverage) done more frequently, are just as bad or worse (and that's my pro-analytics take without bringing up analytics heh).
I feel like Dunn would pair great w Parayko. Blues could’ve also had Petro>Faulk and Krug. If they trade Dunn Armstrong is flubbing this blueline up big time
a first + a prospect for a guy who has been so bad he was healthy scratched? I get he was good last year but as you said he was sheltered. Best case your looking at a prospect + 2nd
When Babcock put Marner on the 4th line for a few games, would you have expected a 5th round pick for a 4th liner? Coaching decisions on a single game should have virtually nothing to do with trade value. The guy is allowed to have a bad game and be punished for it. It was a message to the player, not a value-based decision on the best lineup. There is zero chance that the front office views Niko Mikkola > Vince Dunn, and that is what you're saying if you think he's actually a permanent healthy scratch.
When Babcock put Marner on the 4th line for a few games, would you have expected a 5th round pick for a 4th liner? Coaching decisions on a single game should have virtually nothing to do with trade value. The guy is allowed to have a bad game and be punished for it. It was a message to the player, not a value-based decision on the best lineup. There is zero chance that the front office views Niko Mikkola > Vince Dunn, and that is what you're saying if you think he's actually a permanent healthy scratch.
no but thats not an apples to apples comparison. My point is that even at Dunn's peak he was heavily sheltered. I think he was scratched looking for a trade as reported.
Why based on Hamilton/Nurse? They have very little in common when comparing age, size, stylistically, and utilization for those first 200 games to Dunn. Seems like they’d be much better comps. I’d wager he returns a second + prospect given the initial ask is a first.
a first + a prospect for a guy who has been so bad he was healthy scratched? I get he was good last year but as you said he was sheltered. Best case your looking at a prospect + 2nd
So they put Marner on the 4th line can we have him for a 6th Round Pick? Best Case Scenario for a guy who was put on the 4th Line. See how stupid that sounds. Berube put him as a scratch to watch to give him a new perspective because they did the same with Thomas his rookie year, and last year, and it has done him some wonders. What you don’t see is Gunnarsson made the same mistakes Dunn did he got walked twice but the ones that were going back the other way hit the post both times. And obviously he’s offensive he’s still young he provides us good play, unless someone is willing to offer what he is worth not what f’king pairing he plays on.
Why based on Hamilton/Nurse? They have very little in common when comparing age, size, stylistically, and utilization for those first 200 games to Dunn. Seems like they’d be much better comps. I’d wager he returns a second + prospect given the initial ask is a first.
I don't know, those were just the guys off the top of my head that had defensive lapses but offensive upside and are now thought of as more complete/used in more complete roles. Dunn's scoring rate lies between the two.
I've seen about 200 fan posts in the armchair section with about 25 teams potentially trading for Dunn. I know these are fans and not GMs, but there will clearly be interest and I would hope that Armstrong can squeeze a late 1st out of someone. It's still a bad trade for STL when you look at the likelihood of a pick becoming an everyday player (and STL's picks in 2020, yikes).
So they put Marner on the 4th line can we have him for a 6th Round Pick? Best Case Scenario for a guy who was put on the 4th Line. See how stupid that sounds. Berube put him as a scratch to watch to give him a new perspective because they did the same with Thomas his rookie year, and last year, and it has done him some wonders. What you don’t see is Gunnarsson made the same mistakes Dunn did he got walked twice but the ones that were going back the other way hit the post both times. And obviously he’s offensive he’s still young he provides us good play, unless someone is willing to offer what he is worth not what f’king pairing he plays on.
Quoting: leafs101
no but thats not an apples to apples comparison. My point is that even at Dunn's peak he was heavily sheltered. I think he was scratched looking for a trade as reported.
I don't know, those were just the guys off the top of my head that had defensive lapses but offensive upside and are now thought of as more complete/used in more complete roles. Dunn's scoring rate lies between the two.
I've seen about 200 fan posts in the armchair section with about 25 teams potentially trading for Dunn. I know these are fans and not GMs, but there will clearly be interest and I would hope that Armstrong can squeeze a late 1st out of someone. It's still a bad trade for STL when you look at the likelihood of a pick becoming an everyday player (and STL's picks in 2020, yikes).
But if you’re comparing scoring rates you need to also factor utilization and opponents. Dunn is a 60-61% (not counting this years 70% due to sample size), Ozone and Nurse is a sub 50%, and Hamilton ~50% during that time frame. Nurse and Hamilton were also younger and much larger and we know larger guys take longer to develop. Maybe you guys can squeeze out a late first for him but I constantly see ACGMs where they’re not accounting for the initial leaked ask and hyping Dunn up as a solid top 4 guy which he hasn’t proven.
But if you’re comparing scoring rates you need to also factor utilization and opponents. Dunn is a 60-61% (not counting this years 70% due to sample size), Ozone and Nurse is a sub 50%, and Hamilton ~50% during that time frame. Nurse and Hamilton were also younger and much larger and we know larger guys take longer to develop. Maybe you guys can squeeze out a late first for him but I constantly see ACGMs where they’re not accounting for the initial leaked ask and hyping Dunn up as a solid top 4 guy which he hasn’t proven.
Most shifts are on the fly, I've seen smarter people than me argue that zone starts have virtually no impact on results and effectiveness (https://hockeyviz.com/txt/shifts2). And besides a team with Pietrangelo and Parayko would be expected to use them against tougher competition and let the less experienced, offensive d-man beat up on easier competition. A lot of usage is based on team personnel; would Thomas Chabot be playing 25+ minutes against top competition at age 21 if he was on a contending team? Now, the natural next step was to pair Dunn with Parayko and give them big minutes this year, but the team clearly went out of their way to avoid that, so my question is do they have a good reason or are they miscalculating Dunn's value? I won't argue about the trade value, but I will argue that the Blues are making a big mistake by shopping him in the first place.
Most shifts are on the fly, I've seen smarter people than me argue that zone starts have virtually no impact on results and effectiveness (https://hockeyviz.com/txt/shifts2). And besides a team with Pietrangelo and Parayko would be expected to use them against tougher competition and let the less experienced, offensive d-man beat up on easier competition. A lot of usage is based on team personnel; would Thomas Chabot be playing 25+ minutes against top competition at age 21 if he was on a contending team? Now, the natural next step was to pair Dunn with Parayko and give them big minutes this year, but the team clearly went out of their way to avoid that, so my question is do they have a good reason or are they miscalculating Dunn's value? I won't argue about the trade value, but I will argue that the Blues are making a big mistake by shopping him in the first place.
There is always going to be an appeal to authority that some category is ineffective when evaluating a player’s value/impact. What I’m saying is that’s just one that can provide context in which we use to determine value/impact. For example, that’s why GSAx was created to displace SV% by accounting for high danger shots but we all know the technology isn’t there yet to determine exact location which is critical when talking about a game of inches/luck. Hopefully these new pucks stick and we can have some reliable data that doesn’t fluctuate based on the arena/rink.
At the same time we could argue that an appeal to authority to the STL FO shouldn’t of acquired Krug if they thought highly of Dunn’s ability. Faulk obviously threw a wrench in their plans and I think they’d be better off with AP and Parayko on the right side and insert whoever you want on the left but it is what it is at this point.
I’m not saying Dunn can’t develop but rather he hasn’t shown he can routinely hold down a top 4 spot for various reasons. There are multiple players that continue to grow into complete players after the age of 24. The first defensemen that comes to mind for me is Spurgeon who is definitely under appreciated by the casual fan. It’s also worth noting that Dunn isn’t ED exempt so that will factor into his value.
Rangers have to say no here. It's likely we'll be bottom 5 this year and Pajuniemi is one of our better prospects. Would love Dunn though.
There will likely be top-10 protection on any 1st round picks that get moved in this wild and short season. The draft is going to be a hard one to scout, plus the standings are way more volatile.
There will likely be top-10 protection on any 1st round picks that get moved in this wild and short season. The draft is going to be a hard one to scout, plus the standings are way more volatile.
no but thats not an apples to apples comparison. My point is that even at Dunn's peak he was heavily sheltered. I think he was scratched looking for a trade as reported.
Wrong, because Dunn was being spread out as well. Bouwmeester was doing well with chemistry with Parayko, and Gunnarsson had chem with Pietrangelo. Dunn primarily last year played with Faulk on 2nd pairing that didn't work because they are both offensive. Bortuzzo works because Bortuzzo is a stay-at-home defenseman, Dunn is not.
Campabee et TheEarthmaster a aimé ceci.
Répondre
Neighbours,
CapFriendly
CapFriendly