That's what the AAV is yes.

This is 100% spot on. Klefbom is criminally underrated, when hes playing healthy. His contract is great too, again when he's healthy. Theres no doubt that his injuries would hinder his value, but thats all the more reason for the Oilers to hold onto him. As you said, worst case scenario he rides it out on the LTIR.

The only reason in the world that he would be exposed in the draft would be if he directly told Holland that he will never play in the NHL again. In that case, moving out his contract is all good.

I highly doubt the Oilers protect Turris. Yes we've been looking for a 3c for a while now. And Turris seems like a great fit. But we have yet to see him play. He was out of favour in NSH, but that was in large part due to his contract. Now that he is on a reasonable deal, we can judge if he's worth it. Not to mention he has 1 year left and he'll be 32. If Seattle really wants a 32 year old soon to be UFA, thats not a crazy loss for the Oilers. By this time next year, you gotta hope that maybe McLeod will be on the team in that role. Worse case here, you get another free agent next season.

Jones is by far the most valuable to the Oilers of those 3. Kahun could join the conversation if he plays well, but for now, its unknown.

*Also this is a side note, but here is one of the rules in the seattle expansion draft.
"Players who missed the final 60 games of the ’20-21 season or who have otherwise been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury cannot be exposed in the draft without league approval"
Im not sure how to interpret this in reference to Klefboms situation. Would he be exempt from the draft, meaning the Oilers don't need to protect him? Or would it mean that the Oilers must protect him?

I guess we will see. It'll become clear nearer the ED.

My key point is when was the last time klefbom has truly been healthy? My thoughts are that klefbom's shoulder has deteriorated so much and the Oilers have known it for some time. This isn't something that can be solved with surgery its arthritis and the fact that the oilers haven't been in the playoffs is probably the only thing that saved klefbom all these years. If you operate on a shoulder then you always have the potential for arthritis and it could get worse. From what holland has said Klefbom needs to rest his shoulder all summer then he comes in and half way through the season, it flares up again, he needs about 10 games, then he can finish the season under a lot of pain. A deep playoff run and he can't do it and you saw him play terrible to the point where he couldn't clear the zone against Chicago.

So the rule for exemption is either 27 games this season "OR" 54 over the last two. So it's either one or the other, not both. There is no "and" there, it's an "or" right? Meaning that either one or the other of those options needs to happen for Klef to be exempt. Not both. So if he doesn't play 27 games this year because of injury while on LTIR. He should be exempt. Unfortunately, from the sounds of it, it is career threatening.

Sure... In 5 years if the cap doesn't move up there will be a correction in contracts. The current CBA understanding ensures the cap will increase. There is so much unknown from an NHL stand point that arguing is pointless. Your projections would have too many variables to accurately predict a teams salary situation 5 years from now let alone 2.

i'm not going to argue nudge's contract AAV on his next contract we are agreeing on that. I do factor in getting nudge's AAV to drop significantly in 5 years though and its a fair assumption that you need the cap.

Fact is he will sign a contract for more than 5 years so his AAV will remain constant. There is too much concern over injure to sign a short term contract

I think it's wrong to think it as a question between "and" or "or", per se...

Think of Puljujärvi for example. As he wasn't contracted in the NHL last year, he couldn't accrue any games to that total on two year time span, but the case with Klefbom is a bit different.

Pulju will not be exempt from the ED if he accrues 27 games this year as it is his only contract year during these two ones. Klefbom has been under contract for both of these seasons, so should he total 54 games combined these two years, he won't be exempt. Which he has done as he played 62 games last year, no?

To be elligible for exemption: Doesn't make exposure parameters (played in less than 70 NHL games in the last two seasons) and missed 60 consecutive games in the previous season.

klefbom's 62 games last year prorates to about 71.6 Games. klefbom's whole season gone prorates to 82 games missed. He doesn't meet exemption by a C hair on games played.

McLeod may be on the team now. In practice today he lined up between Ennis and Chiasson - the 4th line center. Khaira got waived. Haas is injured. Shore doesn't have a contract (yet). This may be a thing for opening night.