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Forums/Armchair-GM

2021 Season Predictions for ALL TEAMS plus In depth Leafs roster

Créé par: Random2152
Équipe: 2020-21 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 2 janv. 2021
Publié: 8 janv. 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Prologue:

This off season is weird and there might still be stuff to do but I gotta write this at some point so here we go! As always feel free to tag in other posters as the point of this is to generate discussion and get as many fanbases opinions as possible, even if I seriously disagree with you. If you think I am wrong (Politely) let me know and explain why. Writing this stuff down and generating discussion on it leads to much better informed opinions on everything NHL for any who partake.

I always use a Leafs AGM for these for two reasons: Firstly it stays in my history so it is easy to compare predictions year over year, to go in depth with the Leafs and show my predicted opening day line combos and what league-wide situation I think this lineup will find itself in (which is obviously very important to overall team success).

Also, I won't be using point totals this year, rather grouping teams into categories as the number of games being different makes the point totals less useful. The teams will still be laid out in the order that I think they will finish (so being on top ~= more points) but being in the same tier I think they will be very close.

Each section is labelled so those of you who aren't interested in the Leafs in depth line combo discussion or anything else can skip it.

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Year in Review:

Welcome to the 3rd annual season projections! Here is last year and as always we will start with my greatest hits and misses from the previous season. Here is the link if you want to go laugh at the old projections: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1414520

Biggest Hit: San Jose Sharks
I correctly identified that SJ was teetering on the edge ready for collapse, even if I figured they had another year.
"They are on the clock however and I think with all of their 30+ players (on long term deals) they are just going to stop being good one day and it will be as sudden as the Kings."

Biggest Miss: Edmonton
Projected 2nd last in division (77 points for 82 games) based off lack of major improvements and expected better results from the Californian teams. Womp womp.
"A team with serious issues that hasn't really improved much. What little they have is overshadowed by others in the division."

Small Hit: Columbus
Predicted CBJ would be better than prevailing opinion (On the playoff bubble) and that their goalies could go off. And while Torts didn't win the Adams, he was a finalist.
"I made these [wrong] predictions based on [Montreal and NYI's] off seasons. Won't make the same mistake with CBJ this year."
"They have lost a lot but they still have a good young core of players to rebuild around. If one of their goalies can step up Torts will win the Jack Adams."

Both a Hit and a Miss: Florida
"X-FLA - 100P: If they can ever get good goaltending and offence going in the same season they will make the playoffs. This is the year (I say for the 3rd time). The Bob and Stralman contracts suck but Talon is in win-now mode and I think they will at least win-now to some extent."

That is enough of old projections. Time to make new ones that will age horribly! YAY!

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Off Season Notes (NEW!):

Best UFA Add: Tyler Toffoli 4@4.25aav (MTL).
There were many good options, and I needed to chose whether to look at this from a position of need, pure skill, or to factor in contracts and value added but I have to go with Toffoli to MTL. Toffoli is a good player and that is an extremely reasonable contract he signed. I like it a ton for Bergy and the evil Habs. HM to Markstrom as he should solve a huge need for CGY but that contract is risky.

Biggest Loss: Torey Krug (BOS).
You might think that I'd go with Piet here but the aforementioned Krug replacing him helps to soften the blow. Boston has lost a great deal this year and Krug is one of the biggest pieces working against them going into the season. I like McAvoy and Grzelcyk a great deal but they could really use a guy like Krug on that back end.

Biggest WTF Moment: Taylor Hall 1@8aav (BUF).
Many good options for this, but I have to give it to Taylor Hall to Buffalo for 1 year. That was just bizarre after all the "I want to win" comments. I do understand the logic, but it came out of nowhere and was wholly unexpected.

Best Trade: Kasperi Kapanen Trade - Kyle Dubas (TOR-PGH).
The Kapanen trade came out on top in my opinion because Dubas not only manged to get more than fair overall value (even by my standards) but got out in front of a trade market which saw the values for players like Kapanen completely disintegrate overnight. HM to Devon Toews (Joe Sakic) and Nate Schmidt (Jim Benning).

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2021 NHL Season Projections:
Note: The tiers are not indicative of standing between divisions, only in relation to divisional rivals. For example tier 1 in Canada =/= tier 1 in the Central.
Note: I would like to remind you that being in the same tier means that I think you are pretty much equal.

West: The better than it looks division
----------------Tier 1: ----------------
COL: I don't know what there is to say that hasn't already been said. This team is a cup contender through and through. Lead by one of the best GM's in the league they have significantly improved this offseason to the point that their PDO regression shouldn't be noticeable. I have a hard time seeing any future where this team is not leading the division. They need a bounce back from Donskoi who was weirdly bad for the Avs since signing from San Jose and the goalies need to continue to hold down the fort. As of now goal tending is the weakest part of this team and it isn't even bad. Ideally you'd like to see one of them go on a run and show that they have that high end ability to steal games rather than being just okay though.

----------------Tier 2: ----------------
Both these teams have flaws, but they also have some high end pieces that have proven again and again that they can play well. I think these two will be close all year.

LVK: I think losing Nate Schmidt is an underratedly big blow to this team as he successfully took huge amounts of the hardest minutes night in and night out for the team. Pietrangelo replacing him more than covers the loss but not having that defensive stalwart to rely on is going to put Piet in situations he hasn't had to play in for years (Thanks to Parayko). I still think he will be fantastic but I think his impact will fall out of the Norris conversation to the very good catagory as a result. The rest of the team is still here and is relying on a big year from Cody Glass. Stephenson will need to continue to put up the goofy numbers he was since landing in Vegas. Overall this is a good team and having playoff aspirations is not unreasonable. They have a very strong goalie tandem and if they can add some depth to their lineup during the season I think that could catapult them into the next tier.

STL: The Blues have lost a significant amount this year even with the addition of Krug. I think they downgraded on their blue line enormously and are going to need to rely on Dunn to step up and start taking big minutes to help out that first pair. The Scandella and Faulk contracts look iffy to awful already and I think that those two being the second pair are going to struggle this year. STL does have reinforcements coming up front and I like their offence for this year. For me the biggest question is goal tending. Was Binnington a one shot wonder? Can he rebound from a disastrous campaign? I think that the answer to this question will be what defines the season for this team. None the less I fully expect that they will be nicely set up for the playoffs

----------------Tier 3: ----------------
I feel like all of these teams could be underrated going into the season. Each will be making a push for the last playoff spot.

MIN: Whether this team is the top of tier 3 or in tier 2 will entirely depend on how good Kaprisov is. I like MIN's Dcore and the team plays a style that is very friendly to goalies making the Talbot bet a good one. Their F core is the obvious weakness, which brings us back to Kaprisov. He needs to really step up and show the world why there is all this hype about him because he won't be getting a lot of help from his teammates offensively. MIN's centres aren't great, although I think EK is actually a little bit underrated by the hockey community as a whole. Bonino is too looking at this sites response to the trade (which I stand by in my opinion that it was good for the Wild). They aren't underrated enough to make up the difference that a real 1C would make so the Wild will be relying on their D and wings to make it up. Fiala needs to continue to dominate and I'd like to see Zucc rebound (CF says he is injured atm?). Parise and Suter need to keep playing at a high level. They are in obvious decline, but are both still very good players and as long as that is true MIN has a shot.

ANH: This team starts at the back end and gets progressively worse (Insert joke here). Gibson is great and should rebound after an uncharacteristically bad season and I still like ANH's Dcore. While there are no stars on D they have an abundance of top-4 talent that will be able to help them win games. Fowler needs to continue his resurgence and Lindholm needs to rebound. Manson and Shattenkirk are both fine 2nd pair Dmen who should be able to contribute nicely for the Ducks. I'd like to see Guhle get a shot in the lineup full time as I think he could be a nice boost to the back end for cheap. The F core for this team is pretty rough. Getzlaf is declining and he doesn't have much high end help at the moment. Rakell has had such a weird career up to this point and his ageing curve seems to be in full decline and I don't know if he will rebound. If this team is going to do anything it needs the young guys to really step up big time and start taking big minutes. If they don't then this team will be slipping down closer to tier 4. This is a big year for Eakins as well. I want to see him succeed. Lets see what his fully implemented system can do for ANH.

SJ: San Jose had everything go wrong for them last year. The perfect storm of ageing, regression, goalies being goalies, and injury woes. Solving that last one in particular is why I think they will rebound a bit this year but that defence corps looks shakier and shakier every day. Karlsson is hugely overpaid but still a good player and father time appears to have Burns in his sights. I like Simek as a #4 Dman but the top end just isn't there anymore to project this team higher. Underratedly (as in many have not yet realised) Vlasic might be the worst contract in the league. His play has entirely fallen off in recent years and he can no longer take the minutes being given to him. This team desperately needs a high end minute muncher on their back end. More worrying however is the goalie situation. Both Dubnyk and Jones were some of the worst in the league last year and these two could single handily sink the Sharks season again. If they had a more solid tandem I think I'd have them above ANH. Their top 6 is good and I like the bet on Donato, especially for his acquisition cost. That bottom 6 looks rough though and someone needs to step up big time to take some of the load off the top 6. They don't need to be great, but they need to stay above water and I'm not sure this B6 can do that.

----------------Tier 4: ----------------
ARI: What a garbage franchise. People actually think Matthews will want to come here? A ****show top to bottom. Never ending arena and ownership issues, no draft picks, wasting the ones you have on unrelenting pieces of ****, bad cap management, lack of stars, I could go on and on. This team has 3 good Dmen, and two of them are overpaid. The forward situation isn't much better although I'd like to see Dvorak continue to ascend. Schmaltz also needs to have a big season. Looking at this team I think there is a systems issue that is holding them back, so I believe a coaching change might be in order. Regardless playing boring hockey that even die hard fans find hard to watch isn't going to grow the market so I honestly think a change to a run and gun play style would be a benefit, even if not in the standings. The net situation is the only bright spot having 3 legitimate NHL goalies on the roster. Dump bad contracts, change styles and rebuild.

LA: The tank continues to progress nicely. LA has a deep prospect pool. On the roster they already have a potential starter of the future, some decent young(ish) Dmen and a handful of forwards who will be good in a lower role once the high end prospects graduate. Kopitar is still very good although he really has no help around him. The biggest problem with this team (outside of a complete lack of talent) is Drew Doughty's play. He pretty much signed his $88M extension and proceeded to **** off. As much as he is a hero to the working man for doing so his terrible play has been costing the Kings greatly. Some have theorised that it is more a lack of motivation rather than age related decline, but the Kings won't be good for some time and no one is taking on his contract as is. If he continues to play like this I wouldn't be surprised to see it bought out after year 4 as it would give the Kings over $7M per year in cap savings. Either way the plan is simple. Continue waiting out bad contracts and developing your prospects patiently. Your time will come.

Central: The regular ass division
----------------Tier 1: ----------------
TBL: How goofy is it that you can remove one of (if not THE) best wingers in the game from this roster and they still look like clear favourites to win the division. I honestly don't have any notes here other than they are very good and that I am a little pissed that they managed to get out of their cap issue this year without a massive loss long term from the roster (Kuch will be back when it matters, so no real loss there). They will need to dump one or more guys next year too but the NTCs open up and Seattle is here so I imagine they will be fine. ****.

----------------Tier 2: ----------------
CAR: Still one of the best D corps in the league. Gards back has hurt him more than I imagined it would but he began to rebound in the 2nd half of the season. Their forwards are all good and they have a super star talent emerging in Svech. They aren't on Tampa's level (Sans Kuch) because of goaltending but overall they are very good. One of Reimer or Mrazek needs to steal the crease full time otherwise this team will be hamstrung going forward. I know they were looking at goalies in the off season but I think they should continue to look throughout the season and look to make a splash. I'd be keeping an eye on teams with expiring goalies as well as teams like CBJ or Arizona.

----------------Tier 3: ----------------
Two teams with completely different but important questions that play some boring hockey.

CBJ: This team doesn't have high end talent but they are stacked to the brim with good players who play their system effectively. Its boring as hell but it works. Their goalies worked very well last year and we will need to see that continue for CBJ to do well. They have a strong and deep D core despite trading away Murray for pennies on the dollar which is a testament to how well that back end is built. Up front they have plenty of role players and PLD is very good. You'd like to see this team add more up front and start adding an offensive touch to their game for them to really take it to the next level. Now for the elephant in the room. PLD wants out and reports say he wants out soon:
("Darren Dreger on TSN1050 says he thinks Pierre Luc Dubois' situation is more time sensitive than Patrik Laine's. Thinks PLD & his camp expect a deal to happen in weeks or months, sooner rather than later, not at the trade deadline or next off-season.")
I am building this projection including PLD as there is no way to project a return for him and how that will affect the team. This is the hurdle for this year. Talk him down, or more likely get a strong return for him. Everything hinges on this.
PS: I get the impression that it is Seth Jones turn to win the Norris since that is how Norris voting works. I find it comical as he is good but overrated (woe is you). It is just a hunch.

DAL: Seguin is out. Why is Seguin out? And for how long? Losing a big piece could hurt big time and if he is out for awhile it could make the playoff race far closer than you'd like. I think I'd have DAL above CBJ here if not for Seguin being out, but I have no idea how long he will be. I maintain that I am not a fan of this team (from a roster creation standpoint) and I think they over achieved in the playoffs last year. The good news is that I expect Klingberg to be much better and Miro to continue his ascent to one of the best Dmen in the league if the coach will let him play for once. This team has offensive talent but they style they play is awful and never lets the horses fly. Gurianov and Hintz play far too little and are on far to short a leash. I imagine they could rocket themselves into star status were they let go (especially Gurianov). I think being able to play this defensive style is good but all the time it is a snore. I'd like to see what this team can do with a more offensive mindset. On to more controversial opinions - they need to find a way to dump the Lindell contract before other teams get wise and that NMC kicks in. He is single handedly hurting this team and Klingberg especially. When he is on the ice Dallas gets shelled in all aspects whether you look at quantity or quality. He relies on Klingberg to do anything productive outside of one thing. He is good at breaking up plays at the blue line and that does have value, just not 5.8 million per year. I'd like to see this team add to its blue line this year assuming they want to go on a run. I think they would be very happy getting a flipped Ryan Murray from NJ.

----------------Tier 4: ----------------
It might be a hot take to put FLA over NSH and I am not even certain I can properly explain why I did it here. I think they both have massive holes but NSH has something more worrying.

FLA: Florida has been dumping salary this off season and lost some high end talent. They will need to get big seasons out of Tippett and Denisenko to make it up. They have some interesting bets in Wennberg and I like the Hinostroza signing for them but overall this is a weak forward corps. On defence I think there is a optimal set up that can successfully minimise their weaknesses and provide good results. I like their acquisition of Nutivaara and Gudas for the bottom pair and I think they have done a decent job in creating a solid enough D core to support Bob and hope he rebounds. Speaking of the season relies on Bob not being **** this year. This is the single largest concern that will make or break the season for the cats and I am somewhat banking this projection on him being better than he was last year. If he can re gain that elite form Florida stands a good chance, if he is average to good they'll be in the running.

NSH: I have always been low on NSH. My first biggest hit was projecting them to finish far lower than consensus back in the first season preview. My concerns only grow on this team. They fill out their roster with depth grinders who aren't able to contribute much, and then play their stars 15 minutes a night. This is likely my largest concern and the number one reason I have them lower than the Cats. The coach. He doesn't deploy his lines intelligently at all and runs a terrible system. He was an awful hire and needs to be gone if his deployment habits don't immediately change. Playing Forsberg as much as 4th liners is inexcusable and directly lead to this team underperforming. This team generates so much of its offense from the back end and if Josi ever falters they are beyond screwed. It doesn't help that Ryan Johansen has fallen off a cliff play wise and is rapidly declining. If he doesn't rebound quickly they need to find a way to move his contract before teams get wise. Their Dcore is still solid and the primary good thing about this team and it will have to be as their goaltending situation is tenuous at best. Rinne has declined immensely in the last year and looks cooked. Saros has shown momentary flashes. He needs to step up and take the starters net full time this year and put up at least average numbers while doing it night after night.

----------------Tier 5: ----------------
Tank Tier

DET: Detroit has gotten significantly better in this offseason and they will still probably finish bottom 5. That is how bad they were last year. Not sure what there is to say other than to stick with the plan and let Stevey do his work. They had some nice pickups on value contracts so it hopefully won't be unwatchable for the fans but it isn't going to be a great year that is for sure.

CHI: Stan Bowman is still here. I actually agree with his general idea of what he wants to do but I wouldn't trust him to execute it correctly. He already ****ed up the first move with the Saad trade. Zadorov is a 3rd pair Dman and not even very young. Thanks to injuries their forward corps is pretty bad. They have a few pieces I like, but almost all are playing far too high in the lineup. The real problem long term is the back end. Their Dcore is terrible and they have what might be the worst and least experienced goaltending tandem I have ever seen. If one of them finishes with a .905 or above it will be a miracle. Their D is a more controversial topic so I will cover it more in depth. Zadorov is a 3rd pair Dman as already said above. He is okay at it and is good at entry defence but cannot be relied on higher in the lineup. He had a rough year last year so lets hope he can bounce back. CDH is decent enough but always injured so his value takes a hit from that. Keith is the one that tends to rustle some jimmies but he hasn't been good in years as age caught up to him. He desperately needs his minutes cut down to a 3rd pair level and to start being sheltered at this stage of his career. Unfortunately it doesn't appear as though there will be much help in that regard just yet. Murphy is a decent 2nd pairing Dman who I have no qualms about. He is being played too high due to a lack of D depth but that is not his fault. This team will be relying on Boqvist and Mitchell to really punch above their weight and I just don't think they are ready to do that. Seabrook is one of the worst contracts in the league and is totally washed. He shouldn't be playing at all. The plan going forward should be a full rebuild and the first step is firing Stan Bowman.

East: The best division
----------------Tier 1: ----------------
PHI: I really like this team. They've developed very well very quickly and I put them among the best in the league. Lindblom fresh off kicking cancers ass will hopefully return to his top-6 form allowing the Flyers to have great depth. Coots actually had a down year by his standards so if he can rebound this team could be scary good. Being anchored by Carter Hart in net for the next decade plus is a huge benefit to the team as I fully expect him to take his place in the leagues elite net minders in the coming years. On D, Provorov is developing quickly and already beginning to live up to his contract. and they fill out with Myers and Sandheim who are excellent pieces. Ghost and JVR need to rebound and I think the latter is more likely as he has been plagued by injury since coming back to Philly. Braun needs to continue his resurgence to complete this team but overall I really like them. I'd be looking at a D rental at the deadline if possible though, maybe a full out trade to solidify the top 4 for years to come, although Seattle makes that proposition unlikely.

----------------Tier 2: ----------------
Two titans locked in unending conflict; inextricably linked together. "It is like the battles between certain ruminant animals whose horns are incapable of hurting one another."

PGH: The pens are a good team. They may make questionable moves - especially with futures but they are a good team. They have a lot of depth on all facets of their skater corps and it will do them well in this tough division. This team will go as far as Crosby and Malkin can take them and any future beyond that is not worth contemplating. Zucker was a really underrated pickup and was killing it in Pittsburgh before the shut down. Rust remains a gem on a fantastic contract and Guentzel has silenced his critics by ascending to the upper echelon on players. Marino is genuinely a top tier DFD and Letang still has it. This team has all the tools and they just need to put it all together and actually give a **** for another playoff run. I will say that I like Kapanen. I really do but I've seen him play up close for years and he just doesn't have the brain to play with high end players. All the skill in the world but man he is just missing something between the ears. It is a very Kappy thing to have missed the start of training camp because he left for North America too late, so be aware of issues like that popping up. He is an excellent 3rd liner with game breaking speed though and if you play him in that role I think you will be very happy with him. The only question mark for this team, that might really screw my projection here is in net. Jarry had like 2 good months in the NHL ever and was average at best the rest of the time. He needs to solidify himself as a full time starter and be consistently good.
PS: I think I see what the logic of a Matheson-Ceci pairing is and it feels like forbidden knowledge. It is a bet that I wouldn't be comfortable making given where this roster is in terms of its cycle and the long term contract attached to Matheson, but I can see it. If it works.......

WSH: I actually had Washington over Pittsburgh until I was convinced otherwise by someone I trust who is far smarter than I. Their core remains strong and adding Dillon is a nice piece (although the price was a bit steep aav wise). There are only 3 notes for WSH. 1) The depth needs to produce, 2) Samsonov needs to prove that he is who he is hyped to be and 3) the reason I moved WSH down. Jack Han has been analysing the releases from WSH about their new system under the new coach and made some very cognisant points about it that that concern me greatly. I am going to link the thread here as I could never explain as well as he could: https://twitter.com/JhanHky/status/1346175296467308545. I still think they are going to be very good, looking at fighting for 2nd place in the division I just think they have some questions that need to be answered.

----------------Tier 3: ----------------
These guys all have big questions that will determine everything. They could be bad, they could be great.

BOS: This team lost its second best Dman and for the most part did very little this off season. I think they take a hit as a result. The biggest issue for me, and why I have them all the way down here and not in tier 2 is the injuries to 2/3rd of their top line. This team rides and dies with the Marchand-Bergeron-Pasternak line and Marchand and Pasternak are out long term. I have heard that there was some good news regarding Pasternak but I'm still apprehensive. The longer these two are out the harder it is going to be for this team to make the playoffs, especially in this division. If they get back sooner rather than later, I'd feel confident saying they will be fine. McAvoy is shaping into an elite Dman for the Bruins and honestly isn't talked about enough. I like the Smith signing and Kase is a breakout waiting to get healthy. They should look at adding on the back end at the deadline and maybe some forward depth pieces here and there, but another top 4 D would be the priority short term.

NYI: I gotta tell you I am loving this whole Barzal thing for two reasons. Mainly because it shuts up the Leaf fans who are infatuated with Lou and also because watching Islander's fans turn on Barzal is funny. The fanbase is still trash that believes in conspiracy theories and I'd just like to point them in the direction of STL on how to handle your star captain leaving after saying he wanted to stay. In terms of hockey the projection isn't so rosy either. An underrated story line that got buried and stalled because of Covid was that the Islander's were going to miss the playoffs. They had a win streak and then played almost exactly to where the analytics said they should be (bubble team at best) for the rest of the season. The PDO bubble has popped and this team has to contend with the reality of their situation in an even harder division than before! This team has terrible cap management as they gave the keys to a dinosaur who locks up Matt ****ing Martin to a 4 year deal before getting their best player signed and running out of space. That is after trading one of their best Dmen for some pretty weak futures. Btw, are ya signing Barzal or no? The longer he sits the more and more likely it is you miss the playoffs. This team is the definition of Meh. No real high end talent, ageing vets signed for a bit too much for way too long on a team who has to play a boring style to get by. This fanbase deserves nothing less.

NYR: The Rangers have a lot of nice young pieces with a few high end talents to back them up. but they need to take significant steps to make it in this division. I like their goalie situation and their Wings look solid. Kaako needs to be less Kraapo and Laf needs to transition well. The RD is solid enough as Fox is right there with Hughes and Makar while DeAngelo is a good OFD. Question of the day though: WTF happened to Trouba? If this team wants to do anything he absolutely needs to be bounce back. He was awful last year. In terms of this teams weaknesses they have a big need for a 1/2C and the LD is incredibly weak. The biggest problem I have with this team however is Panarin and Zibanajed. Both shot at ridiculously high clicks last year and are primed for regression. If they are anything less than magnificent this team is going to struggle. Panarin should have won MVP btw.

----------------Tier 4: ----------------
Derp derpity derp derp de derp

BUF: Eichel is completing his transformation into the Joker if this team doesn't make the playoffs this year. Luckily Adams seems... Half competent and manged to swing a nice trade for Staal and land Hall! Unfortunately he is still running Risto as the top D, the bottom 6 is as bad as it ever was, and they got put into this division. Cozens looks nice at least? And Dahlin isn't talked about enough as a top tier young Dman in this league. Kid is the real deal. Have some hope as the team shouldn't be unwatchable and maybe Skinner rebounds? It is a long climb to the top though and I'd be starting to pray the Hall and Eichel trade returns are good. It could make or break the Cozens-Dahlin Sabres for years to come.

NJD: I actually think this team is better than this spot insinuates they are but man this division. They just don't have enough high end talent on the roster to do much of anything. Hughes needs to be less crap this year for this team to stand a chance and I like the Murray addition a lot. I just don't think they have enough here. Mango is gonna be great for you guys and Severson is excellent. The one bright spot on the roster is in net. Crow is still good and will be a great mentor for Blackwood, who I LOVE. I think he is underrated around the league and will be your starter for years to come. Keep the rebuild going. You're doing well.
EdIt: It sounds like Crow is done for some reason. I hope everyhting is fine with him and all. This weakens an already weak squad more. I still believe in Blackwood though.

North: The most exciting division
----------------Tier 1: ----------------
TOR: A dark horse team the Leafs have all the tools to go on a deep run in this weak division. The forward corps remains strong while the defence has been immensely bolstered to the best it has been in a long time (it is far better than many give it credit for). The biggest question is in net. Andersen has been phenomenal for the first three years in Toronto, and proceeded to sewer the team last year vastly under performing and hiding any growth in the roster. If he can rebound to where he was this team has the ability to surprise a lot of people. Campbell fills the backup far better than Hutch did and the young core continues to grow. The team just needs to put it all together and a full off season with Keefe should help with that. I'd like to see this team go all in at the deadline this year as this will likely be the easiest playoff structure you will ever get in the modern NHL. The time is now for this team to put up or shut up.

----------------Tier 2: ----------------
These teams are going to be fighting it out all year long and it will be close. God I love this division. It needs to be permanent.

MTL: This team is brimming full of depth which will be useful in their new environment. Their top line is not a top line on a contender but they have been performing admirably in wake of one. They have strong depth down the wings although I seriously question the Anderson acquisition price and subsequent contract. Centre depth is weak and MTL is banking on young centres to step up. I don't know if they will be able to do it full time and I think they will struggle. The hype around Suzuki is out of control on this site and needs to chill a bit. He is going to be good but he was not great last year by most metrics. He was however good by prospect standards. Expecting him to jump from that to a solid 2C is ludicrous and highly unlikely. JK has been struggling and was outplayed by Hirvonen overseas which does not bode well. I think he will be okay in the 3C role but nothing special. In net you have two completely inconsistent goalies who are average at best most of the time until random runs of high end goaltending. This can be a blessing or a curse as you only need a short hot streak to win in the playoffs, but it is more likely a curse. Their D core is extremely overrated and might have gotten worse if they replace Mete's minutes with Edmundson. Petry is very good, Weber still has it offensively but the rest of the corps is not great. Habs fans are also hyping up Romanov but I don't see it. I think they do have a hype worthy D in Norlinder but I don't see Romanov being more than a decent bottom 4 guy in the NHL.

CGY: I think people are a little too low on this team after disappointing last year. They have solved their issue in net and their D core is still okay, even if weaker than before. Their F corps is still very good and I think will have rebound seasons from their top players. Gaudreau in particular needs to step up and I think he still has it in him. The contract for Markstrom looks rough but he should stabilise their net which is something they desperately needed. On the back end Tanev is quickly declining, that is a bad contract. The good news is that Andersson is stepping up and beginning to live up to his contract. They will need a big season out of Valimaki who was phenomenal overseas this year.

EDM: They have a fantastic 1-2 punch in McDavid and Draisaitl but beyond the big boys this team is lacking and has only gotten worse. Their best Dman is out for the year leaving them with a shell of a D core and they will be feeding many minutes to Tyson Barrie who is bad. Last year their D was among the worst in the league results wise and the loss of Klef cannot be overstated here. Even with Jones and Bear getting better I don't see a situation where they improve. Goaltending is still the same, which is puzzling because it was passable at best. The bottom 6 is still awful but I think they have a few bets that are worth it for the cost even if they don't work out. The largest issue is that McDavid and Draisaitl need to actually start playing defence. They are fire hoses which can sink this team if the depth doesn't (and likely won't) cover for them. When McDavid tries on D he is the best forward on the planet and it isn't even close. When he doesn't there are a number of guys in competition. The way this roster is built they need McDavid being far and away the best player in the world and the season will ride on that. Yamamoto needs to continue to rise and prove that he wasn't just on a small sample size run and one of the wingers needs to step up and help McDavid. I wouldn't bet on Kassian so its up to Kahun to play well with Drai, allowing RNH to move up. Speaking of Kahun was a nice get for the cost and I like the Turris bet, I'll give Holland credit for that. I have no idea what JP will look like and he will be an interesting story line to follow. This team has the ability to go deep considering the division. I'd be looking to add some serious depth at the deadline, especially responsible two way players and a good Dman but some work needs to be done for this team to transform into a real contender.

----------------Tier 3: ----------------
These teams won't actually be all the far behind the teams in tier 2, and I wouldn't even be totally shocked to see one or both make the playoffs over the tier 2 teams. I have them in a tier below as they both have major questions and a lot has to go right for them for this to happen.

WPG: Winnipeg actually is what people think the Leafs are. A top 6 filled with very talented forwards who cannot play a lick of defence and one of the worst back ends in sport. Connor Hellebuyck was probably the singular most deserving Vezina winner in the last decade thanks to his heroics in dragging this team to a playoff spot and he should have been a Hart finalist too. This is their greatest strength and also their greatest weakness. Goalies are weird and randomly fluctuate in quality all the time. If Helly is anything less than Vezina quality this team is going to struggle to grab a playoff spot. This team has some major questions to solve throughout the skater corps too. The ever present Laine question and more importantly Josh Morrissey has fallen off a cliff. Both him and Trouba were certifiable 1st pair Dmen and as soon as they split up they both went to ****. He will need to rebound as this team just doesn't have the back end to make up for him being bad, or even just average. Pionk has been a nice surprise and Demelo is okay, but they are both 2nd pair Dmen at best and cannot lift this Dcore on their own. It doesn't help much that they gain most of their value from offensive results rather than defensive, making the defensive issues worse. I am also not entirely comfortable putting Pionk any higher until I see his good results continue past this year. The good news is you have a very underrated winger in Ehlers (who is as good as Nylander) and the division is going to be wide open. They will be battling for a spot, but more has to go right for them to make it than other teams - hence their being in tier 3.

VAN: How was Bim supposed to know that his actions would have consequences? Toffoli looked great in your top six and you lost him to a divisional rival for a very reasonable contract. I'll give him a pass on losing Tanev as Schmidt should be a very nice DFD and an upgrade but you lost your starting goalie too. This team is hurt, badly. There is some good news. EP40 is still getting better and Hughes might already be among the best Dmen you've ever had but this teams bottom 6 and D corps is bad. You have 2 quality Dmen on the roster and there isn't one good player in your bottom 6 who looks like they will provide value. Even worse you need to hope Horvat rebounds in your top 6 after a bad year. The biggest issue though is in net. Holtby has not been good for awhile now and likely won't be able to take more than a tandem role. Demko had a great playoffs but his larger sample size of play shows that there is a long way to go and that he might be very shaky. This team lost too much and has far too many questions to be confidently placed in a playoff spot, but as a result of the division I don't think you'll be all that far off. Have some hope.

----------------Tier 4: ----------------
OTT: This team is bad. They have major holes all around the lineup and didn't really improve despite spending a ton of money this off season. They continue to feed minutes to Nikita Zaitsev who has somehow gotten worse since leaving Toronto and has replaced him on the top pair with... Gudbranson, who is also very bad. There is literally only one NHL quality Dman on this roster and he might shatter an atoi record this year. Please don't break him. In net they paid far too much for Matt Murray, a goalie who was unironically one of the worst in the league last season. They paid him for his cup winning days and ho boy are they long behind him. Goalies being goalies it is possible he rebounds but for that contract he is a massive risk. Looking at the F core I was pleasantly surprised about the Dadonov signing as I was worried he would sign an albatross deal pre-pandemic. There isn't much to say about the rest of this roster as it is pretty much some interesting prospects and replacement level veterans. I actually really like Hogberg though and will be keeping an eye on him. There is one major problem I feel the need to touch on though. The Sens absolutely blew this draft. This draft will shape the future of this franchise and they made some terrible picks. Sanderson at 5 was atrocious when Marco Rossi was on the board, Greig doesn't have a huge amount of upside beyond a 3C, Jarvente is a long shot and has looked bad since, they gave two picks to Toronto and took a low skill slow Dman who has virtually no upside while the two picks Toronto got were used on guys who look fantastic and won the best Dman at the worlds this year as an 18 year old. Melnyk is the problem here but Dorion isn't helping you out I'll tell you that for free. If you want to know where I am coming from, here is who I'd have picked not knowing where they would eventually go (no hindsight) and including all the pick trades (even the ones I wouldn't make).

3: Stuetzle LW
5: Rossi LC
28: Kusnutdinov LC
33: Gunler W (R)
44: Andrae LD
61: Niemela RD
71: Poirier LD
155: Miettinen RW
158: Pashin F (L)
181: Brouchu G

Here is my scouting list that I used to make this so you know I am not full of ****: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1753529

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In Depth Leafs Roster and Opening Day Lineup Thoughts:

Okay I've heard about the Joe-Mats-Mitch line and I love it, but I doubt it sticks. That being said that line could reasonably have a shot at 50 in 50 (by modern standards - so like 15%).

Forwards:
For me I support a continuation of last years lines that seemed to work well. Specifically keeping the Hyman-Matthews-Marner line together seems like a good idea to me.
That leaves Tavares and Nylander together looking for a partner. The solid top 6 options are Kerfoot and Mikheyev. For the life of me I cannot understand those who keep trying Kerfoot here. Sure he is fine at it but he was acquired to be a 3C and that is where he is best. Plus we don't have a solid full time 3C if he isn't. Joe and Spezza cannot run a top 9 line anymore so they are not 3C options there.
For me I'd start with Souperman on the line.

The depth is a different story. We essentially have Kerfoot as the only sure thing in the lineup, but stacked a whole bunch of maybes who have shown either the potential or past ability to play on a 3rd line. They don't need to be worldenders, just good enough to be a positive force and produce. Last year (partially due to injuries) our 3rd line wasn't producing for us all season or in the playoffs. Our top 6 is good enough to make up the difference, which is the point but having production from the depth helps to dismantle opposing teams efforts at shutting us down. Last years lack of production from the 3rd line is actually why I am okay with this strategy as it is a fraction of what we were paying for the same production and allows us to move the money to a place where it will be far more effective (Brodie). If any of the maybes we signed works out, it is pure profit for the Leafs in terms of improving he roster from last season.

Our options for the bottom half of the roster are as follows: Robertson, Vesey, Simmonds, Spezza, Thornton, Engval, Barabanov, and maybe Anderson. From this we need to find an effective 3W and 4th line.
Vesey has good offensive impacts and I think will be given the first shot in a higher role. I think he has the most potential to be the player who 'works out' among the group which is in stark contrast to this sites general opinion on him. I actually think people are underrating him slightly. Reuniting the Vesey-Kerfoot pair from college has a good chance of producing positive results, at least to the level of last years depth. I have them with Simmonds because he helps bring an edge to that line that will give them purpose beyond last years depth even without the production boost we are hoping for. Plus there are rumours that Simmonds hasn't been healthy is years. The Maple Leafs have one of the best medical staffs in the league and are directly responsible for rejuvenating careers in the past. Just look at what they were able to do for Tyler Ennis. I see a nice potential for Simmonds to produce beyond his pay grade from that alone all while bringing that edge we want him for.
Additionally I think that Robbie will be given reps on this line at times. I think it is more likely to be with Vesey and Kerfoot, but I can see a situation where having a Robbie-Kerfoot-Simmonds line could be beneficial. If Robbie can steal a full time spot here - Great! If not he will be getting valuable experience training with the Leafs before being sent back to the A or the O if it ever starts up. I have him on the taxi squad as he will need to earn that time rather than be given it. Tie goes to the vet and all.
That leaves Engval, Barbar, Spezza, and Joe. I figure we start with Barbar to see what he can do at the NHL level and have Joe and Spezza playing small minutes able to move around the lineup in game and spot shifts here and there as well as get PP time. I am not totally in love with this 4th line (don't like Joe and Spezza together) but it is more meant as a spare unit anyway. I think that Necc and Barbar will be on a rotational basis until one can solidify themselves into the lineup. Necc's 2nd half of the season did him no favours, and Barbar coming overseas actually works in his favour to get the first shot but overall neither are guaranteed anything and I am excited to see what the competition brings out of them.

I think another configuration I would like (to break up that bottom line) is to have one of Spezza or Joe play on the wing up the lineup. Mostly on the 3rd line rather than in the top 6 although if that works it solves almost all of our depth problems immediately. I figure Simmonds would move down in that instance, but everything in the bottom 6 is in flux as we wait to see who works and who doesn't. I imagine that there will be a great deal of experimentation with the lines over the first portion of the season.

Furthermore we have enough NHL capable players that we can give the old guys a night or two off on back to backs to manage their load. This would allow us to test guys like Robbie and other combos.

Overall, if none of the depth breaks out we may need to seriously look at a deadline upgrade to fill the hole, although I think I'd be looking for one anyway as I really like our odds to go deep in this division.

Defence:
Moving money from the depth (which again, was largely ineffective last year) to the defence is a move I generally agree with. So much so that I proposed something similar way back in April (receipt: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1691593). Our top lines are able to soak up huge amounts of time, and spending money on the depth - especially if it isn't going to net us much is wasteful. Apparently Dubas agrees and moved the depth money to the back end picking up TJ Brodie. This gives us 3 for sure not in question top 4 or better Dmen, which is probably the best backend we have had in years. Add into this equation that Justin Holl produced strong results with Muzzin tells me we might actually have a very solid D core.

Now I would rank Holl as a bottom 4 Dman, meaning he works in the 2RD spot, but you'd like better. Thankfully Dubas has filled out the back end of the roster in the same way he did with the forward depth, but better. We have a few maybes who can step into that 2RD spot this year. Namely the incumbent Holl, the upcoming Dermott, and the hot FA signing from Europe in Lehtonen.
Dermott is a player I remain high on as he has shown flashes of being able to handle top 4 minutes during parts of the last two seasons. He plays a feisty game and can be solid at both ends of the ice. In this season I'd really like for him to step up and steal that 2RD spot next to Muzzin. If he doesn't Holl should continue to work, but we also have Lehtonen. Now I always try to keep my expectations low on European FA signings as they can vary wildly in quality. Lehtonen has been called the best Dman not in the NHL last year and so far this season has been producing very well for Jokerit. How he transitions to NA ice will be key but I think the skill is there for an every day defence man. If we are lucky and he is the next Mikheyev for us but on defence stealing that 2RD spot that will make our lives significantly easier, but as I said temper expectations for him until we see him play.
Bogo is a bottom 4 grindy-vet type. I don't expect anything more than 3rd pair level minutes, even if he ends up playing some of them with Muzz, Mo, or Brodie in spot shifts.
If all else fails we hope that Holl can keep form. I don't see why he can't but this is the Leafs we are talking about so...
I would also give some spot duty to Sandin and Liljegren in some games, specifically around back to backs to give some guys the night off and to see what they can do with another year of development.

In terms of building the pairs I went very conservative and put Brodie with Mo and kept the Muzz-Holl pairing together since we know it works. I also cannot fathom Dermott being a scratch. This means for opening night we will see a fight between Lehtonen and Bogosian for that 6th D spot. I have Bogo as he needs waivers and Lehtonen doesn't. The one thing that will almost certainly get me in trouble with this projection is that Dermott is a RD according to Dubas which hints more at Lehtonen over Bogo.

Final note: Running through this roster in depth has made me realise that we may have a strong argument to run 11F-7D many nights to get both Bogo and Lehtonen in the lineup. We wouldn't be losing much from the depth anyways and I am already arguing that our 4th line be used for spot shifts anyway. Having them both for specific roles could help more than having Barbar or Engval on some nights.

Goalies:
In terms of Goaltending, Freddy needs to rebound back to his form from his first 3 seasons in Toronto. In his first 3 seasons Freddy was a top-10 goalie saving far above expectation and was even pushing top-5 in his best year. No matter how good your team is, you need goaltending and if Freddy performs as badly as he did last year (one of the worst starters in the league by expectations) it will heavily contribute to the Leafs under performing again.
The good news is we have significantly more goalie depth than last year. Hutch is now the 4G and shouldn't see action. Beller has looked good in limited minutes and had a season of being fantastic for the Kings before being moved to Toronto. If he can get that form again and push Freddy for starts that will be extremely helpful both this year and for figuring out what to do going forward.
We also have Dell, who was okay for San Jose last year. Not great but he is the 3G for us here. Not that there is a lot of competition but I'd wager he is one of the best 3G's across the league right now - and that might actually be an issue. I think there is a real chance he gets taken on waivers (looks at WSH) and so he might not actually be a Leaf for long. It is why I have him as the 21st man rather than a skater.

Taxi Squad:
Overall there isn't much to say about this group that I haven't already said. I am keeping some prospects here who I'd like to get reps both in practice and in games as well as guys who can fill in as needed. A player requires waivers to be on it and many posters seem to have missed that. As such I have kept my taxi squad to waiver exempt players who we can move around at will.
I am bringing 3 D and 3 F to start, and sending Robbie back to the A or O if it ever starts up and he doesn't solidify a full time spot on the roster.
Sandin and Liljegren both have NHL experience and are ready to crack the roster. Having them spot in for games and be injury depth is a good role for them while they practise with the club. Lehtonen is a ? right now and really should make opening night roster, but I have him here because he is waiver exempt. I imagine there is a scenario where Bogo is sat for Mikko and it isn't a small chance.
On F I have Robbie (obviously), the loser between BarBar and Necc as well as Anderson. Anderson is the one I am most sceptical about making this roster, but he is the best option so I have him here until the A starts up at least. Petan, Boyd, or Brooks could also reasonably be here instead if they have a good camp.

In case I have misunderstood the rules for the Taxi squad in terms of goalies, Anderson can be replaced with Hutch to fulfil that requirement.

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Rant on some things I'd like to see (NEW!):

The NHL is a entertainment business, not a hockey business. We need to keep that in mind. Low event hockey kills casual interest in the game and needs to be removed if this sport is ever going to grow just like the NHL did after the lockout. Good defence is fine, I specifically have a problem with low event teams and play styles (Teams with talent who don't use it, like the stars for example piss me off). Additionally stopping the game for long reviews kills momentum. Enough of it. Here are 5 rules that should be adopted. The first 3 are more conservative and likely, the next two are long shots.

1) Eliminate the Offside challenge. It is the fastest game on earth. Mistakes are going to be made. Furthermore most of the calls coming back are millimetres off - not conferring any real advantage to the attacking team. The solution is simple. The NHL already has a crew watching the game remotely who blow the horn if a goal is scored and missed on the ice. If a goal is scored, that crew has until the Refs drop the puck to blow the horn if it was offside. If they cannot tell in that time it wasn't a big enough deal to worry about it.

2) When on a PK, teams can no longer ice the puck. I am actually not certain why this rule was brought in at all and it makes little sense why this exception is made. Powerplays are an easy way to increase scoring and high leverage scenarios, taking away a cheap way for a team to get out of danger should compound that. It will also lead to more short handed stuff thanks to the mechanics of how you actually need to get the puck out of your end.

3) In 3-on-3 OT a team cannot cross back over their own blueline (back court rule). This was a foreseeable thing to happen. We all knew that coaches would ruin 3-on-3 OT. It is a gimmick so lean into it. Prevent teams from wasting that high octane time by regrouping in their own zone. They have the O Zone and the Neutral zone after a breakout, no more wasting time behind their own net. Note: this is just for 3-on-3 OT, not playoff OT. Never ever touch playoff OT. It is perfect.

4) This one is a little more out there and still in its infancy of growing popularity. Eliminate zone entry offsides. The first three proposals are far more realistic in a shorter time span but if the league really wants to open things up and remove the 1st issue entirely they'd take out zone entry offsides. There are plenty of pieces that explain this position far better than I ever could, so feel free to read up on those if you're interested. We have removed offsides before and it worked out well to kill the trap, we need to do it again as coaches are getting better at stiffing hockey. I will repeat. Defence is good. Low event hockey is bad. There is a difference and we need to kill the latter.

5) Free Agency Drafting. This one is way out there and not much in the public view so let me lay it out for you. The season works exactly as normal and you get your standings at the end of the year. ELC's are slightly changed so that 1st round drafted kids can get a 1 time bonus. The first round rather than being a draft is a free agency. Any team can sign any draft eligible player, order does not matter. The catch is that the maximum signing bonus scales inversely to your teams standings. For ex: The last place team has up to $3M to sign their 1st rounder. The 2nd last team has $2.9M, and on and on down to a 100k signing bonus for the best few teams. You don't have to spend all of that money, but you cannot spend more. Now why would this be a good thing? Well it helps to eliminate tanking by not overly incentivising a last place finish (really there isn't much difference between 3 and 2.9 mil in NHL terms). It helps get rid of the randomness of the lottery - screwing Detroit this year. It could be a big media day which is good for ratings. It allows the players to have choice in where they end up but also disincentivises them from just going home or going to the cup winner or a huge market (NY, TOR, MTL, etc) due to financial reasons. It isn't perfect, but I honestly believe it is better than the current system by far. The 2nd-5th round would then proceed as normal on day 2. I've dropped the 6th and 7th rounds from the draft as they are essentially just darts and I'd rather those players had more agency in choosing a program and situation that is right for them.
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8 janv. 2021 à 18 h 46
#51
Banni
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Quoting: Wqrrior
Goalie coaches can make a large difference (Clark is great). Also remember the entire Washington motivation last year was down. I am willing to give Holtby a chance. Also Demko and Hart were always up there as top goalie prospects. His sudden success might just be a realization of that potential. He won't be as solid as was in the playoffs - but I'm expecting noticeable improvement. I want to see it before i discount anything.

Edler was better last year vs. at least the 3 years before this. We might see his age more, but he will have a lesser role. Team can't be all that much worse given we took Vegas to 7 games in the semis... we didn't make it there by fluke. Schmidt just adds to an already solid team. Your analysis on the VAN defense kind of shows that you have never routinely watch Canucks games as few of those points are relevant to the team nor are these the major issues.

I do agree that the teams success will be a large product of the goaltending.


It'll be an interesting year. I am excited for it.bb
8 janv. 2021 à 18 h 47
#52
Banni
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Staal being just below PPG isn't crazy, think about his wing mates last year and how improved his will be this year and his production last year was like 15 below PPG.


He's also older and I think both his wingers as projected are overrated big time
8 janv. 2021 à 18 h 49
#53
Démarrer sujet
Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Yes, I'm so optimistic on the sabres because they always start fast and it's a short season


This is fair. It did happen to the Leafs in 2013 so it is possible. Just don't make any franchise altering decisions based on it though.
8 janv. 2021 à 18 h 53
#54
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Quoting: Thanos_1738
I feel so bad your fingers...


Quarantine Workouts, my friend.
Thanos_1738 a aimé ceci.
8 janv. 2021 à 20 h 52
#55
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Quoting: imawesome
I'm assuming that the "football" you're referring to is soccer and you're right VAR is really annoying


Lol no
8 janv. 2021 à 21 h 29
#56
Retired V2 V3 GM
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Amazing work man!! @Random2152

All of this is very well though out. I totally agree with everything you have stated in terms of my Pittsburgh Penguins. Our goaltending is iffy and Kapanen trade I still lose sleep over lol. All in all I do believe we can still win a few cups before Sid and Geno call it quits.

The Winnipeg Jets section (my 2nd fav team) was nice to read, but also scared me when you compared them to your leafs. I do see the comparison big time. Except of course Helley compared to Andy. I'm going to have night mares now lol.

The Arizona Coyotes section (my 3rd fav team) has been the words I've been dreading to believe... "ARI: What a garbage franchise. People actually think Matthews will want to come here? A ****show top to bottom. Never ending arena and ownership issues, no draft picks, wasting the ones you have on unrelenting pieces of ****, bad cap management, lack of stars, I could go on and on. "

Of course I know that its true, its not the days of Mike Smith (prime), Keith Yandle, Mikkel Boedker, Martin Hanzal and Radim Vrbata anymore. I still dream of the last time we were in playoffs.

However, I do believe we have more than 3 good players (who yes are very overpaid lol) Keller and well I'm a penguins fan so I still consider Kessel good haha.

With all that being said about the Coyotes I would love to run that organization for a year and boy the changes I would make!!!!!!


Anyways,

This is awesome that you did all this thinking and posted it for us to see and enjoy. 3rd annual!! That's so cool! Keep it going man!!

Thanks,
Missouri
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8 janv. 2021 à 21 h 39
#57
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Quoting: Missouri
Amazing work man!! @Random2152

All of this is very well though out. I totally agree with everything you have stated in terms of my Pittsburgh Penguins. Our goaltending is iffy and Kapanen trade I still lose sleep over lol. All in all I do believe we can still win a few cups before Sid and Geno call it quits.

The Winnipeg Jets section (my 2nd fav team) was nice to read, but also scared me when you compared them to your leafs. I do see the comparison big time. Except of course Helley compared to Andy. I'm going to have night mares now lol.

The Arizona Coyotes section (my 3rd fav team) has been the words I've been dreading to believe... "ARI: What a garbage franchise. People actually think Matthews will want to come here? A ****show top to bottom. Never ending arena and ownership issues, no draft picks, wasting the ones you have on unrelenting pieces of ****, bad cap management, lack of stars, I could go on and on. "

Of course I know that its true, its not the days of Mike Smith (prime), Keith Yandle, Mikkel Boedker, Martin Hanzal and Radim Vrbata anymore. I still dream of the last time we were in playoffs.

However, I do believe we have more than 3 good players (who yes are very overpaid lol) Keller and well I'm a penguins fan so I still consider Kessel good haha.

With all that being said about the Coyotes I would love to run that organization for a year and boy the changes I would make!!!!!!


Anyways,

This is awesome that you did all this thinking and posted it for us to see and enjoy. 3rd annual!! That's so cool! Keep it going man!!

Thanks,
Missouri


The quote was 3 good Dmen (two of which are overpaid), not three players but yeah this franchise is crap.
On D the Yotes are in a good position to just let the season ride. Contracts will expire and you can rebuild anew. Bring back the OEL trade talks and get him moved and re-build around Chychrun.
Keller is vastly overpaid for what he has done so far but I really do believe that the coaching system is partly to blame. Everyone who goes to the desert sees their production die.

1) Fix system
2) Trade OEL and let everyone else expire (except maybe Lyubushkin)
3) Build your C core around Hayton, Dvorak, and Schmaltz. It is not great but there are worse and you have other issues to work on.
4) Figure out the goalie situation (do not lose Hill to SEA)
5) Look for value UFA's and cap dumps to fill out lines until a new crop of NHL ready prospects can come in and replace them.
6) Above all else, treat as a total rebuild. Do not rush it - It will take awhile (I would be surprised if they were ready before 2025).
Missouri a aimé ceci.
8 janv. 2021 à 22 h 37
#58
You know nothing JS
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Dude, the bias! The bias!

Montreal:

Goaltending : two completely inconsistent goalies who are average at best most of the time

Dcore: Extremely overrated and might have gotten worse.

Prospects: Suzuki jumping from that to a solid 2C is ludicrous and highly unlikely....JK will be okay in the 3C role but nothing special... I don't see Romanov being more than a decent bottom 4 guy in the NHL.

Toronto:

Goaltending: Anderson has the potential to be phenomenal and Campbell is an improvement

Dcore: has been immensely bolstered

Young core: continues to grow (I dont even know who you are talking about. You have 2 players under 25 in the line up)

I think you mixed up the two 🤣🤣🤣
8 janv. 2021 à 22 h 56
#59
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Quoting: jpsnow13
Dude, the bias! The bias!

Montreal:

Goaltending : two completely inconsistent goalies who are average at best most of the time

Dcore: Extremely overrated and might have gotten worse.

Prospects: Suzuki jumping from that to a solid 2C is ludicrous and highly unlikely....JK will be okay in the 3C role but nothing special... I don't see Romanov being more than a decent bottom 4 guy in the NHL.

Toronto:

Goaltending: Anderson has the potential to be phenomenal and Campbell is an improvement

Dcore: has been immensely bolstered

Young core: continues to grow (I dont even know who you are talking about. You have 2 players under 25 in the line up)

I think you mixed up the two 🤣🤣🤣


You post something like this and have the gall to call me biased?
K
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9 janv. 2021 à 0 h 12
#60
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Quoting: Random2152
Hello! This thread is a season preview and meant to create discussion. If interested please have a read I'd love to get your feedback. Also feel free to ping anyone else who might have a constructive opinion as the idea is to get as many fan basses as possible.
Don't worry about the mass ping, this is a one time thing and won't be like MitchMarnerElite pinging half the site 3 times a week to ask about trading a conditional 7th for an AHLer.


Well done job on the analysis tho I'm gonna read through it here in a second. That's an elite conversation starter.
Random2152 a aimé ceci.
9 janv. 2021 à 0 h 19
#61
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Quoting: Random2152
This is fair. It did happen to the Leafs in 2013 so it is possible. Just don't make any franchise altering decisions based on it though.


I sort of disagree with you on the Blues. Yes Pietrangelo is a loss, but he had some issues he was very bad at keeping the puck, and honestly wasn't effective at driving the puck at all, and PP wasn't good with him PP QB he was not very good, Krug is going to be better at a PP QB, it also sets us up for future signings coming up, and I also think they like Perunovich. Perunovich yes left handed plays right side, so they space on the right side is limited right now, not re-signing him kind of gives the opportunity and he's a tremendous prospect for us. We also added Clifford, and even despite me hating him Hoffman. our biggest improvements are shown in training camps right now with Robert Thomas primarily, and some other guys such as McEachern, Sanford, and Schwartz improving pretty well. I think Blues were ready to set Parayko as the number one guy, I know he had a down year last year, but I think Krug and Parayko is hell of a lot better pairing than Faulk and Pietrangelo was.
Random2152 a aimé ceci.
9 janv. 2021 à 0 h 46
#62
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
I sort of disagree with you on the Blues. Yes Pietrangelo is a loss, but he had some issues he was very bad at keeping the puck, and honestly wasn't effective at driving the puck at all, and PP wasn't good with him PP QB he was not very good, Krug is going to be better at a PP QB, it also sets us up for future signings coming up, and I also think they like Perunovich. Perunovich yes left handed plays right side, so they space on the right side is limited right now, not re-signing him kind of gives the opportunity and he's a tremendous prospect for us. We also added Clifford, and even despite me hating him Hoffman. our biggest improvements are shown in training camps right now with Robert Thomas primarily, and some other guys such as McEachern, Sanford, and Schwartz improving pretty well. I think Blues were ready to set Parayko as the number one guy, I know he had a down year last year, but I think Krug and Parayko is hell of a lot better pairing than Faulk and Pietrangelo was.


On the last part I agree, but that is mostly because Faulk is ass. I can understand why you might be low on Piet right now but to put it lightly I disagree on a bunch of it and the underlyings do too. I do think that Krug is a great add in lieu of keeping Piet which is why I still have them fighting for 2nd in the division even though I don't like their second pair (presumably Scandella-Faulk). I think I like the Blues with Peit and no Krug over Krug without Piet but I understand moving on from a money perspective and wanting the young guys to play more. Remember, I still really like this team lol.
I also said I like your offence even without Vlad and the young guys are some of the ones really highlighting it for me.

BTW, whats happening with Tarasenko? He has been injured forever now.
Shylo_Moxii a aimé ceci.
9 janv. 2021 à 0 h 51
#63
I want Gourde back
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Quoting: TheFlamingC
Lol no


Alright my bad. The "ball kicked" comment threw me off
9 janv. 2021 à 0 h 54
#64
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Quoting: Random2152
On the last part I agree, but that is mostly because Faulk is ass. I can understand why you might be low on Piet right now but to put it lightly I disagree on a bunch of it and the underlyings do too. I do think that Krug is a great add in lieu of keeping Piet which is why I still have them fighting for 2nd in the division even though I don't like their second pair (presumably Scandella-Faulk). I think I like the Blues with Peit and no Krug over Krug without Piet but I understand moving on from a money perspective and wanting the young guys to play more. Remember, I still really like this team lol.
I also said I like your offence even without Vlad and the young guys are some of the ones really highlighting it for me.

BTW, whats happening with Tarasenko? He has been injured forever now.


So his injury, was reagravated and he played with it 2nd time on this shoulder. He should be back within the season tho. He's done very well coming off of injuries tho he's had some very good production once of injury.
Random2152 a aimé ceci.
9 janv. 2021 à 0 h 56
#65
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
So his injury, was reagravated and he played with it 2nd time on this shoulder. He should be back within the season tho. He's done very well coming off of injuries tho he's had some very good production once of injury.


Man he is a guy that really needs to retire.
He has a cup
He has his money
He has been one of the best wingers in the league
Mans needs to get out with his health
9 janv. 2021 à 1 h 8
#66
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Quoting: Random2152
Man he is a guy that really needs to retire.
He has a cup
He has his money
He has been one of the best wingers in the league
Mans needs to get out with his health


I would agree with you, but I think he loves the game too much. I think he plays for another 5-6 years, but I think he's a career Blue.
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9 janv. 2021 à 1 h 32
#67
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Quoting: imawesome
Alright my bad. The "ball kicked" comment threw me off


Yeah, I meant kickoff.
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9 janv. 2021 à 3 h 21
#68
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An interesting read and good analysis. Mostly I agree with your assessment of each team with small nit-picks here or there.

Overall this was fantastic.
Random2152 a aimé ceci.
9 janv. 2021 à 12 h 9
#69
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I want to reply in a way that incites discussion because obviously a lot of effort was put into this, but I just agree with the vast majority of what was said here and the things that I don't necessarily agree on/would change are so arbitrary.
Random2152 a aimé ceci.
9 janv. 2021 à 12 h 15
#70
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Great job man! Must've taken you forever. I really like the new rule changes you suggested, especially the 3 on 3 ot one. Just curious, do you see the Leafs trying to acquire another top 4 RHD at the tdl? Anyways, great job!
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9 janv. 2021 à 13 h 46
#71
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Quoting: TheNorthStar
Great job man! Must've taken you forever. I really like the new rule changes you suggested, especially the 3 on 3 ot one. Just curious, do you see the Leafs trying to acquire another top 4 RHD at the tdl? Anyways, great job!


Maybe but I think we really like our options going into the season on d and the only way we would prioritize another dman before a forward is if all three of Dermott, Holl, and Lehtonen flame out. I would look at a forward rental first.
With that being said if Hamilton is available then I'd go for him anyway.
TheNorthStar a aimé ceci.
9 janv. 2021 à 18 h 42
#72
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As a Jets fan, your analysis is pretty spot on. Their defence made me physically ill to watch last year, and they added nothing. Last year they basically lost Trouba, Byfuglien, Myers, and Morrissey. Some other guy named Morrissey came in to play, but it was def not the same guy. Pionk was good offensively but that’s not exactly their biggest need.

And then this off-season DeMelo is a good guy to keep around, but 3M seems a bit high, reminds me of the Kulikov signing a few years ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if he slips to our 6/7 guy a year from now. Even a token addition like a Pysyk or a Stetcher would have been nice, but no, Forbort and Sbisa should be enough to fix the wort defence in the league right?? I guess Forbort could outplay his contract by a little but c’mon Chevy.

Obviously our top 6 and goaltending are second to none, but the bottom 6 is still suspect, and unless Heinola/Samberg come in and blow us all away, the d corps is still a major issue. I would not be surprised if they finish anywhere from 1st-6th
Random2152 a aimé ceci.
12 janv. 2021 à 13 h 7
#73
hey look a squirrel
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Such great read
Random2152 a aimé ceci.
15 mars 2021 à 20 h 29
#74
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Wow! Great post alot of time and alot of effort! I hope though that you sabres prediction would be wrong lol and we finish near the second tier ... I'm gonna write my feelings on the sabres as that's my favorite team and it might strike some conversation.

They have in my opinion 8 players worthy of top 6 playing time on the forward side and about 6 for the bottom 6 that are probably league average.

Top 6
Eichel
I think that Eichel will be the best player in the East division this year, Yes I think he will be better than Crosby in the given year and yes that might be partially because he is playing with Hall. And yes he might not be a better player but he will have a better season, also he will be top 5 in scoring and be in the Hart Race. I think an off-season after another losing season and watching every player his talent level playing and dominating in the playoffs will bring him back bigger, stronger, and faster than most. Wouldn't be surprised if all he did was workout and skate since end of last year. I also believe there will be an increase in Eichels willingness to back check hard now that he has Hall to help on offense and pass the puck out of the zone 2.

Hall
Maybe the biggest X-Factor between the Sabres making the playoffs or them missing, if Hall can't get a PPG somewhere on the roster I think we will end up losing alot. Hall is going to start with Eichel and I like the chances of them sticking together and be a force. If not hopefully he can stick with Cozens, I think Staal will be winged by Skinner and Reinhart all year. Hall with Cozens could end up being a really good backup but we will see

Ollofson.
I expect 25 goals and him to be on Eichels wing for the whole year at 5v5 and PP.

Staal.
Probably ends up having a good year and ending just below a ppg I'd think it's not unrealistic to imagine him scoring 45 points.
Reinhart.
Probably had his first PPG season and if so sabres will be in the playoffs.
Skinner.
Every year after a bad one Skinner bounces back expect 15-20 goals and 40 points.

Cozens-Arttu-Thompson-Mitts
I hope all 4 of these players make the roster, mitts is probably the one that missed though. Thompson was a monster last year for a little bit and crushed the AHL, I expect him to be a lock all year on the 3rd line and might get some time with Eichel if Hall doesn't work out with Eichs could be fun. Mittlstadt looks bigger and stronger hopefully with some confidence he can lead a line or atleast fight for a roster spot. Cozens should be in the 3rd line atleast to start the season, we shall see. Arttu can probably play in the 4th with Eakin and Okposo and I like him for his PK abilities, as well as he ripped up finland.

Okposo is probably a lock, as well as Eakin.

Dahlin is someone I'd be willing to bet on getting 45+ points in 54 games and looking effortlessly and still be an amazing defender. Looking like an upcoming Norris trophy winner. Think this is his year.
Risto isn't a bad defender and if Dahlin goes off and plays as the #1 then Risto on the second line playing against the other teams second best probably does well. McCabe along side him won't be do bad as a second pairing.
Jokiharju is a wild card, our defense could look amazing if he can lock up in the second line and move Risto to the third pairing, Joker looked amazing in training camp scrimmage.

Hutton is going to be good .910+ 2.5-3 a game
I'd say Ullmark goes .920 and let's in 2.5-3 a game


Hey man, I just wanted to make sure you haven't like, jumped off a bridge or something.
This isn't meant to be a dunk or anything. Even I'm sitting here in utter disbelief at what I'm watching.
 
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