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St. Louis Blues signed Vince Dunn (1 Year / $1,875,000 AAV)

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4 janv. 2021 à 8 h 31
#26
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Dunn is a far superior player when it comes to production.

He SHOULD be given the far lower comp he faces, much higher On The Fly Starts (49.09/60 vs 39.2/60 for Bear) and higher O-zone Starts (62.54% vs 55.97%), but he isn't. Dunn's On-Ice GF/60 is about the same (3.01 vs 2.93), his xGF/60 is lower (2.30 vs 2.44) and his personal P/60 is lower too (0.71 vs 0.87). He seems to jump up into the play more (his individual corsi is higher) but the fact that his IPP (Individual Points Percentage) is so low would indicate that he's less effective than Bear offensively. (All numbers 5v5)

Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Only reason Bear is first line is because everyone else there is crap at his position.

Bear got the opportunity when Larsson got injured in the 1st period of game 1. The fact that he didn't give the spot up is a testament to his abilities.

Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Dunn is 2nd Line because Faulk was playing the spot last year, and this year it's Krug.

Except Dunn wasn't on the 2nd line, he was playing 3rd pairing comp and TOI. Behind guys like Faulk, Bouwmeester and Scandella.
4 janv. 2021 à 15 h 26
#27
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Quoting: CD282
He SHOULD be given the far lower comp he faces, much higher On The Fly Starts (49.09/60 vs 39.2/60 for Bear) and higher O-zone Starts (62.54% vs 55.97%), but he isn't. Dunn's On-Ice GF/60 is about the same (3.01 vs 2.93), his xGF/60 is lower (2.30 vs 2.44) and his personal P/60 is lower too (0.71 vs 0.87). He seems to jump up into the play more (his individual corsi is higher) but the fact that his IPP (Individual Points Percentage) is so low would indicate that he's less effective than Bear offensively. (All numbers 5v5)

He's was playing 2nd.

Bear got the opportunity when Larsson got injured in the 1st period of game 1. The fact that he didn't give the spot up is a testament to his abilities.


Except Dunn wasn't on the 2nd line, he was playing 3rd pairing comp and TOI. Behind guys like Faulk, Bouwmeester and Scandella.


Lineup before Faulk even stepped into the equation was Bouwmeester-Parayko
Dunn-Pietrangelo. But I mean we can go either way here. Have you looked at the defense Dunn plays compared to Bear, Dunn also has more effectiveness if you look into the hockeyviz site.

Dunn has a Offensive of effectiveness of +3 when he is on the ice sure Bear is a +6
when Dunn is on the ice on defense offensive effectiveness against is a -11% when Bear is on the ice on defense offensive effectiveness is +2% so honestly it's a give or take. Bear might be slightly better on offense, but completely worse on defense.
4 janv. 2021 à 16 h 16
#28
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Lineup before Faulk even stepped into the equation was Bouwmeester-Parayko
Dunn-Pietrangelo. But I mean we can go either way here. Have you looked at the defense Dunn plays compared to Bear, Dunn also has more effectiveness if you look into the hockeyviz site.

Dunn has a Offensive of effectiveness of +3 when he is on the ice sure Bear is a +6
when Dunn is on the ice on defense offensive effectiveness against is a -11% when Bear is on the ice on defense offensive effectiveness is +2% so honestly it's a give or take. Bear might be slightly better on offense, but completely worse on defense.


Glad you admit you were dead wrong. And the defensive stat is easily covered by the vast, vast difference in competition the two men face.
4 janv. 2021 à 17 h 50
#29
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Quoting: CD282
Glad you admit you were dead wrong. And the defensive stat is easily covered by the vast, vast difference in competition the two men face.


mmmm considering the fact that he played a lot with Pietrangelo. Remember they changed lineups to Faulk with Parayko and Dunn with Pietrangelo mid way through the season. It's not a vast difference. Glad to see you wanna bandwagon your way out of it tho.
5 janv. 2021 à 8 h 30
#30
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
mmmm considering the fact that he played a lot with Pietrangelo. Remember they changed lineups to Faulk with Parayko and Dunn with Pietrangelo mid way through the season. It's not a vast difference. Glad to see you wanna bandwagon your way out of it tho.


Berube found Pietrangelo some clean air - that's great coaching. Pietrangelo played 2nd pairing comp on average, clearly he was playing 3rd pairing comp when with Dunn. Dunn spent just 17.5% of his TOI against elite players while Pietrangelo was at 32.3%. Parayko (37.7%) and Bouwmeester (37.5%) were taking on the hardest comp, similar to Ethan Bear (36.1%) and Darnell Nurse (35.6%) for the Oilers.

BTW, from January 1st on, Pietrangelo played 540 minutes at 5v5. Only 146 of them were spent with Dunn - less than 30%. You probably shouldn't rely on your memory.
5 janv. 2021 à 15 h 31
#31
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Quoting: MountRoyal
Great value, but only one year ...


Quoting: MaxDomi13
Steal


Quoting: pharrow
something telling me he's getting his money later.


Quoting: Barbs
What a bargain


Quoting: A_Habs_fan
Less money than expected I would’ve thought he would’ve gotten around Cernak- Myers money but those were longer term deals


Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
Funny how they’re going to be paying Hoffman more than Dunn on the same term signed at the same time. RFAs have really gotten the short end of the stick this year.


Quoting: jpsnow13
That's some Labanc type of deal.

Bozak is coming off the books next year. He will get a 4x4.5M to make up for the lost money and bring him to free agency


Quoting: ZiggyPalffy
Overpay


Quoting: OldNYIfan
Great signing for the Blues. We were all expecting Cernak money. I hope that he plays well this year and gets a ton in the summer.


Quoting: TheWolfe
Holy Bridge deal Batman


Quoting: pandemic_p
It's crazy bear got more than him


Quoting: BCAPP
Wow. Free agents got killed by the flat cap. I didn't think a flat (vs negative) cap would hurt free agents so much but it clearly has.

I pegged him in the 3.5-4.5 range pre free agency.

Obviously that dropped over the last month or two but still


Quoting: weirfanno1
Surprised he signed bellow 2 million. Set up for a big pay day next off season with a good season.


Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
bahahahahahahahahahaahaaaaaaaaa


Quoting: jasondomitrovic
Great value signing.


"23. In the final blog of last season, there was a note on Vince Dunn and wondering about the Blues’ plans for him. In a year where a lot of players were squeezed, Dunn’s one-year deal came in higher than expected. It surprised other teams. That shows the Blues think positively of him, set a high bar to trade him and probably did legwork on his next contract."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/31-thoughts-2020-21-nhl-season-step-unknown/
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5 janv. 2021 à 15 h 38
#32
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Quoting: CD282
"23. In the final blog of last season, there was a note on Vince Dunn and wondering about the Blues’ plans for him. In a year where a lot of players were squeezed, Dunn’s one-year deal came in higher than expected. It surprised other teams. That shows the Blues think positively of him, set a high bar to trade him and probably did legwork on his next contract."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/31-thoughts-2020-21-nhl-season-step-unknown/


That makes sense about the RFAs, but it seems like a lot of NHL GMs are underrating Dunn.
5 janv. 2021 à 15 h 42
#33
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
That makes sense about the RFAs, but it seems like a lot of NHL GMs are underrating Dunn.


I think they see the usage and understand exactly what Dunn is.
5 janv. 2021 à 17 h 2
#34
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Quoting: CD282
"23. In the final blog of last season, there was a note on Vince Dunn and wondering about the Blues’ plans for him. In a year where a lot of players were squeezed, Dunn’s one-year deal came in higher than expected. It surprised other teams. That shows the Blues think positively of him, set a high bar to trade him and probably did legwork on his next contract."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/31-thoughts-2020-21-nhl-season-step-unknown/


Quoting: CD282
I think they see the usage and understand exactly what Dunn is.


A budding young defenseman that mops the floor against easy competition in limited minutes. Not sure how it surprised GMs when his contract comparables all either produced less or got paid longer. Seems right in line with most Blues fans' expectations, that if it came time to start camp, he would take 1 yr x 1.5-2 mil and work out something better when he has arbitration rights.
5 janv. 2021 à 17 h 42
#35
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Quoting: A_K
A budding young defenseman that mops the floor against easy competition in limited minutes. Not sure how it surprised GMs when his contract comparables all either produced less or got paid longer. Seems right in line with most Blues fans' expectations, that if it came time to start camp, he would take 1 yr x 1.5-2 mil and work out something better when he has arbitration rights.


The comparable D that signed this off-season all played harder minutes AND produced more.

Myers: 0.97 P/60 (26.4% vs Elites)
Koekkoek: 0.95 (30.5%)
Bear: 0.87 (36.1%)
Cernak: 0.66 (34.0%)
Dunn: 0.62 (17.5%)

It's not a terrible contract by any stretch, but pretending that it's a fantastic deal is just silly.
5 janv. 2021 à 18 h 12
#36
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Modifié 5 janv. 2021 à 18 h 18
Quoting: CD282
The comparable D that signed this off-season all played harder minutes AND produced more.

Myers: 0.97 P/60 (26.4% vs Elites)
Koekkoek: 0.95 (30.5%)
Bear: 0.87 (36.1%)
Cernak: 0.66 (34.0%)
Dunn: 0.62 (17.5%)

It's not a terrible contract by any stretch, but pretending that it's a fantastic deal is just silly.



Only 10 u23 d-men have had more EV pts in the last 3 yrs and only 2 of those 10 played fewer EV minutes.
1. Aaron Ekblad
2. Thomas Chabot
3. Charlie McAvoy
4. Zach Werenski
5. Mikhail Sergachev
6. Ivan Provorov
7. Noah Hanifin
8. Travis Sanheim
9. Seth Jones
10. Darnell Nurse
11. Vince Dunn
Those are the comps IMO, not 40 games of Slater koekkoek etc, and none of them signed 1 yr deals. That's why I can't figure out why GMs were expecting him to sign a similar deal to koekkoek or demott or someone.

https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/skater_standard/?_inputs_&std_sk_group=%22All%22&std_sk_age1=%2217%22&std_sk_type=%22Totals%22&std_sk_info=%22No%22&std_sk_adj=%22No%20Adjustment%22&std_sk_season=%5B%2220192020%22%2C%2220182019%22%2C%2220172018%22%5D&std_sk_pos=%22D%22&std_sk_table=%22Box%20Score%22&std_sk_span=%22Regular%22&std_sk_players=null&std_sk_toi=%2250%22&std_sk_team=%22All%22&std_sk_range=%22Seasons%22&std_sk_dft_yr=%22All%22&std_sk_age2=%2223%22&std_sk_str=%22EV%22
5 janv. 2021 à 18 h 59
#37
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Quoting: CD282
"23. In the final blog of last season, there was a note on Vince Dunn and wondering about the Blues’ plans for him. In a year where a lot of players were squeezed, Dunn’s one-year deal came in higher than expected. It surprised other teams. That shows the Blues think positively of him, set a high bar to trade him and probably did legwork on his next contract."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/31-thoughts-2020-21-nhl-season-step-unknown/


Yeah, he got under paid. He's gonna make his money later. We'll see.
A solid young 2D with potential to grow is worth the 4-5 mil range on a long term deal.
While Dunn is getting 3D minutes I think a lot of people view him as capable of stepping up to 2D minutes and he's only 24. 1.8 seemed low. I think most people had him at 2-2.5 range. Which seemed more fair based on his play and potential growth.
Not sure how that guy come to that conclusion. Put it this way, he got paid little more than Ceci. Something doesn't fit with that.
6 janv. 2021 à 3 h 22
#38
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Quoting: CD282
"23. In the final blog of last season, there was a note on Vince Dunn and wondering about the Blues’ plans for him. In a year where a lot of players were squeezed, Dunn’s one-year deal came in higher than expected. It surprised other teams. That shows the Blues think positively of him, set a high bar to trade him and probably did legwork on his next contract."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/31-thoughts-2020-21-nhl-season-step-unknown/


and here we go again with the Canadians and their 31 thoughts. You know what else was said in 31 thoughts Parayko would be traded, and Nylander, and PLD, and Hampus Lindholm would be traded, It's rumors people pull out their ass. If teams were surprised then they are pretty dumb. A couple of the advanced stasticians I know said he should get around Colton Parayko's contract 5-years 5.5M.
6 janv. 2021 à 9 h 52
#39
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Quoting: pharrow
Yeah, he got under paid. He's gonna make his money later. We'll see.
A solid young 2D with potential to grow is worth the 4-5 mil range on a long term deal.
While Dunn is getting 3D minutes I think a lot of people view him as capable of stepping up to 2D minutes and he's only 24. 1.8 seemed low. I think most people had him at 2-2.5 range. Which seemed more fair based on his play and potential growth.
Not sure how that guy come to that conclusion. Put it this way, he got paid little more than Ceci. Something doesn't fit with that.


"That guy" is the biggest media insider in the game. And he's referring to other NHL teams. I'm 100% sure those guys are far more knowledgeable than you or me. Just because casual fans had him in a higher range doesn't mean anything at all. The contract was higher than the market dictated. End of story.
6 janv. 2021 à 9 h 53
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Quoting: A_K
Only 10 u23 d-men have had more EV pts in the last 3 yrs and only 2 of those 10 played fewer EV minutes.
1. Aaron Ekblad
2. Thomas Chabot
3. Charlie McAvoy
4. Zach Werenski
5. Mikhail Sergachev
6. Ivan Provorov
7. Noah Hanifin
8. Travis Sanheim
9. Seth Jones
10. Darnell Nurse
11. Vince Dunn
Those are the comps IMO, not 40 games of Slater koekkoek etc, and none of them signed 1 yr deals. That's why I can't figure out why GMs were expecting him to sign a similar deal to koekkoek or demott or someone.

https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/skater_standard/?_inputs_&std_sk_group=%22All%22&std_sk_age1=%2217%22&std_sk_type=%22Totals%22&std_sk_info=%22No%22&std_sk_adj=%22No%20Adjustment%22&std_sk_season=%5B%2220192020%22%2C%2220182019%22%2C%2220172018%22%5D&std_sk_pos=%22D%22&std_sk_table=%22Box%20Score%22&std_sk_span=%22Regular%22&std_sk_players=null&std_sk_toi=%2250%22&std_sk_team=%22All%22&std_sk_range=%22Seasons%22&std_sk_dft_yr=%22All%22&std_sk_age2=%2223%22&std_sk_str=%22EV%22


LOL, none of those guys are comps. They can play defense and don't need to be highly sheltered.
6 janv. 2021 à 9 h 55
#41
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
and here we go again with the Canadians and their 31 thoughts. You know what else was said in 31 thoughts Parayko would be traded, and Nylander, and PLD, and Hampus Lindholm would be traded, It's rumors people pull out their ass. If teams were surprised then they are pretty dumb. A couple of the advanced stasticians I know said he should get around Colton Parayko's contract 5-years 5.5M.


He reports what he hears, and there have been trade talks with all those guys - some of them publicly. That's not bad reporting, that's telling us what he hears. And he is more connected than any other media guy in the world.

Clueless homer.
6 janv. 2021 à 10 h 5
#42
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Quoting: CD282
LOL, none of those guys are comps. They can play defense and don't need to be highly sheltered.






You don't have to look very hard to find the supporting data for his defense, it's above average. And you do know that deployment is a coaching decision, not an evaluation of the player's abilities? If the Oilers next coach played RNH 12 minutes per night would you assume that he can't play in the top six or that the coach is making a poor decision?

Edit: and what is the main driver of a contract? I'd argue it's EV points which is why I used those comps. Contract determination and on-ice value don't always correlate, the contract is usually driven by points. Bringing up that Dunn "can't play defense" (he can and he does) has nothing to do with his contract comps IMO.
6 janv. 2021 à 10 h 15
#43
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Quoting: A_K




You don't have to look very hard to find the supporting data for his defense, it's above average. And you do know that deployment is a coaching decision, not an evaluation of the player's abilities? If the Oilers next coach played RNH 12 minutes per night would you assume that he can't play in the top six or that the coach is making a poor decision?

Edit: and what is the main driver of a contract? I'd argue it's EV points which is why I used those comps. Contract determination and on-ice value don't always correlate, the contract is usually driven by points. Bringing up that Dunn "can't play defense" (he can and he does) has nothing to do with his contract comps IMO.


You can have your opinion on the importance of QoC, TOI, etc, that's fine. All I'm trying to say is that it shouldn't have surprised anyone that his 1 yr bridge deal came out around $2m. All of the guys that produced similar to Dunn on their ELC's got more years and more money, and it is a safe assumption that when he signs his next extension it will be closer to those comps I brought up.
6 janv. 2021 à 10 h 53
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Quoting: A_K
You can have your opinion on the importance of QoC, TOI, etc, that's fine. All I'm trying to say is that it shouldn't have surprised anyone that his 1 yr bridge deal came out around $2m. All of the guys that produced similar to Dunn on their ELC's got more years and more money, and it is a safe assumption that when he signs his next extension it will be closer to those comps I brought up.


If you want to overpay him for whatever reason, that's your loss. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

I just thought it was funny how this community was all "steal" "what a bargain" "great value" "bahahahahahahahahahaahaaaaaaaaa" when actual NHL people had the opposite reaction. There's a reason they are running NHL teams and we aren't.
6 janv. 2021 à 10 h 55
#45
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Quoting: A_K




You don't have to look very hard to find the supporting data for his defense, it's above average. And you do know that deployment is a coaching decision, not an evaluation of the player's abilities? If the Oilers next coach played RNH 12 minutes per night would you assume that he can't play in the top six or that the coach is making a poor decision?


Generally NHL coaches know what they're doing. If a seasoned, Stanley Cup-winning coach shelters the HELL out of a player ALL SEASON LONG, then I wouldn't be so arrogant as to think I know better. Unfortunately that SOP on this site.
6 janv. 2021 à 12 h 36
#46
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Quoting: CD282
"That guy" is the biggest media insider in the game. And he's referring to other NHL teams. I'm 100% sure those guys are far more knowledgeable than you or me. Just because casual fans had him in a higher range doesn't mean anything at all. The contract was higher than the market dictated. End of story.


"that guy" has also released a ton of absolute garbage. We done now?
6 janv. 2021 à 16 h 43
#47
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Quoting: CD282
If you want to overpay him for whatever reason, that's your loss. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

I just thought it was funny how this community was all "steal" "what a bargain" "great value" "bahahahahahahahahahaahaaaaaaaaa" when actual NHL people had the opposite reaction. There's a reason they are running NHL teams and we aren't.


The funny thing is the guy he just brought up JFresh is where I got my advanced analytics from most of the time if a guy wants to stay with a team it's gonna be less money on a bridge and less money would have meant 3 million not under 2 million.
6 janv. 2021 à 19 h 30
#48
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Quoting: CD282
"23. In the final blog of last season, there was a note on Vince Dunn and wondering about the Blues’ plans for him. In a year where a lot of players were squeezed, Dunn’s one-year deal came in higher than expected. It surprised other teams. That shows the Blues think positively of him, set a high bar to trade him and probably did legwork on his next contract."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/31-thoughts-2020-21-nhl-season-step-unknown/


For the record I didn't say it was bad relative to the market, I said the market this year is bonkers.
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5 févr. 2021 à 10 h 35
#49
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im suprised he did not get more
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