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Forums/Armchair-GM

What I Think Will Happen in 21-22

Créé par: CD282
Équipe: 2021-22 Oilers d'Edmonton
Date de création initiale: 9 nov. 2020
Publié: 9 nov. 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
- Kahun and Yamamoto will get matching contracts. I expect both guys to score somewhere in the range on 0.50 - 0.70 P/GP with a little PP time (but not on the 1st unit).
- Bear will sign for $1.25M x 1 in 2020, his contract dovetailing exactly with Russell's.
- Jones proves he can play 2nd pairing over the season
- Klefbom returns just before the playoffs and plays well, re-establishing himself as a low-end top-pairing defenseman... then gets traded before the expansion draft for a winger who is then protected or exempt. I have Boston (DeBrusk) here, but it could be Montreal or New Jersey or Ottawa or maybe even Vancouver.
- Boston appears to be elevating Grzelcyk this year and I think they'll go too far too fast. He's never played above 3rd pairing and I don't think he can handle the tougher comp. If he falls down on the job the Bruins will be very interested in Klefbom's value deal and be willing to use a protection slot on him.
- Speaking of which... Edmonton goes 7-3-1, protecting McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Kahun, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, DeBrusk, Nurse, Jones, Bear and Koskinen. Seattle selects Zack Kassian. James Neal, Kris Russell, Kyle Turris and Anton Forsberg were the key NHL players available (plus UFA players Adam Larsson and Tyson Barrie).

I have Edmonton spending all their spare cap space on Hamilton, but they would be more likely to re-sign one of their UFA RHD's, Larsson and Barrie. Either one would cost less than the amount allotted to Hamilton, Larsson much less - and both would sign for less term, too. I know a lot of posters here think Hamilton will get $9M+, but when you look at his body of work (i.e. more than just last year) he's not in the upper echelon of defensemen in the league. I think his 2019-20 was an anomaly - if I'm wrong, then I don't see him signing for as low as $6.75M into his thirties. But I think he'll return to his career norms this year and that's what I've based his next deal on: 15 goals and 45 points per 82 with decent on-ice metrics.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
LISTE DE RÉSERVEANSCAP HIT
3750 000 $
3750 000 $
2850 000 $
3925 000 $
RFAANSCAP HIT
54 000 000 $
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2900 000 $
54 000 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
1975 000 $
1750 000 $
66 750 000 $
66 750 000 $
Transactions
1.
EDM
  1. DeBrusk, Jake [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Add picks to flavor, stir well, bake at 350 for 1 hour.
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    SEATTLE expansion draft
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    TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
    2381 500 000 $76 450 172 $669 339 $1 790 000 $5 049 828 $
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    4 000 000 $4 000 000 $
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    750 000 $750 000 $
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    975 000 $975 000 $
    C
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    Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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    5 600 000 $5 600 000 $
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    863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
    DD
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    850 000 $850 000 $
    G
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    Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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    DG/DD
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    9 nov. 2020 à 14 h 9
    #1
    Buljujarvi
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    Salivating over Hamilton
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    9 nov. 2020 à 14 h 9
    #2
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    Over Jones? They would pick Jones over Kassian in my opinion. I’m fine with everything except signing Hamilton....
    9 nov. 2020 à 14 h 10
    #3
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    Quoting: Nhl_oilers
    Over Jones? They would pick Jones over Kassian in my opinion. I’m fine with everything except signing Hamilton....


    Jones will be protected. What don't you like about Hamilton?
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    9 nov. 2020 à 14 h 13
    #4
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    Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk
    Salivating over Hamilton


    Yeah, he's decent. Not perfect, but he should fit in well here.
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    9 nov. 2020 à 14 h 15
    #5
    Buljujarvi
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    Quoting: CD282
    Yeah, he's decent. Not perfect, but he should fit in well here.


    Personally i think he’d want a bit more. (Was playing at a Norris level until he got hurt) maybe buyout Neal and shave money off one or two of Yamamoto, Kahun, or Debrusk. Idk but just for assurance.
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    9 nov. 2020 à 14 h 18
    #6
    The other ones Drai
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    I'm liking this recipe
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    9 nov. 2020 à 14 h 18
    #7
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    Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk
    Personally i think he’d want a bit more. (Was playing at a Norris level until he got hurt) maybe buyout Neal and shave money off one or two of Yamamoto, Kahun, or Debrusk. Idk but just for assurance.


    He might deserve more, but I'm thinking that half season was an anomaly and he won't repeat it. He's a 45-point guy that is decent (not amazing) defensively, he's not in the Josi / Hedman / Pietrangelo / Giordano / Jones class IMO.
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    9 nov. 2020 à 14 h 29
    #8
    Bringer_Of_Snow
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    Really like that lineup.

    For the Bruins trade, its almost impossible to evaluate. Everything depends on Klefboms health. If he takes this year off and comes back 100%, thats a tough deal for the Oilers. If he continues to have injury problems, its a bad deal for the Bruins. Bruins are in a win now mode with Bergeron and Marchand not getting any younger, so they need immediate impact players. If Klefbom takes a year off, that complicates things. I don't see a deal around this working at all. I've seen people float the idea of Nurse for DeBrusk. That deal is horrible for the Oilers. Im not a big Nurse fan, but he has a significantly more impactful games than DeBrusk. And now with Klefbom out, his value to the Oilers only goes up. I just don't see a way that Oilers and Bruins swing a major deal like this.

    Thats a pretty ludicrous contract for Kahun. He'd have to put up some absolutely insane numbers this season to deserve a $20M deal. Players will still be feeling the effects of COVID in their contracts next season. IMO, Kahun would have to put up 20G-30A minimum to get a deal like that, and even that might not get it done.

    Hamilton would be a sweet add. The Oilers don't have a ton of depth on the right D side, and thats a reasonable deal. I could also see him getting more money as he will be the top dman free agent next off-season. He would fit with a lot of teams, but if you are Seattle, you could easily go $8M+ long term. I really like the looks of that d-core though. Bear, Hamilton and Bouchard for the next 6+ years is very good.

    I also wouldn't mind Neal in over Benson. I don't see Benson turning into a NHL regular. His skating is abysmal. Like it's really bad. If Neal has a decent 30-40 pt season, I'd have no problem with continuing playing him on the 4th line with some pp time. If he drops off significantly. Like I'm talking less than 20 pts and season filled with injuries, at that point you look at buying him out or moving him out.
    9 nov. 2020 à 14 h 41
    #9
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    Quoting: CD282
    Jones will be protected. What don't you like about Hamilton?



    The way he plays, and he has bad team locker room chemistry. Don’t want that negatively on the oilers.
    9 nov. 2020 à 16 h 26
    #10
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    Quoting: Bringer_Of_Snow
    Thats a pretty ludicrous contract for Kahun. He'd have to put up some absolutely insane numbers this season to deserve a $20M deal. Players will still be feeling the effects of COVID in their contracts next season. IMO, Kahun would have to put up 20G-30A minimum to get a deal like that, and even that might not get it done.

    Great comment - I just wanted to touch on this one point. First, I didn't put too much thought into the contracts, you'll see I gave a bunch of guys the exact same deal. But here's the thing: Kahun was on pace to score 18-28-46 last year - mainly with Jared McCann as his center - do you really think 20-30-50 is a crazy number with Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid as his center? This kid could drop sixty easily if he has any sort of chemistry with the Big-2. I think he's a comparable player to Yamamoto in a lot of ways so I gave him the same deal.

    We'll see what the year brings, of course, but I don't think that contract is ludicrous AT ALL. This is a guy who is 64th in the league for 5v5 P/60 over the past 2 years (tied with Robert Thomas and Logan Couture) and 34th last year (tied with Sean Couterier). He's a highly skilled player and a great add to the team, $4M might end up being an absolute steal of a deal.
    9 nov. 2020 à 16 h 28
    #11
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    Quoting: Nhl_oilers
    The way he plays, and he has bad team locker room chemistry. Don’t want that negatively on the oilers.


    We could re-sign Barrie instead - I have no idea what he would want but I wouldn't be willing to go long term with him (or as high).
    9 nov. 2020 à 16 h 49
    #12
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    I think Hamilton will easily get 8-10 million
    9 nov. 2020 à 16 h 51
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    Quoting: Skyraider112
    I think Hamilton will easily get 8-10 million


    He certainly isn't worth that. And who, in a flat cap world, will give him that kind of money?
    9 nov. 2020 à 17 h 46
    #14
    Oilers GM
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    Quoting: CD282
    He certainly isn't worth that. And who, in a flat cap world, will give him that kind of money?


    He was a Norris candidate until his injury. Will get close to what Pietrangelo got (and he will be younger than Petro)
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    10 nov. 2020 à 8 h 20
    #15
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    Quoting: ken_holland
    He was a Norris candidate until his injury. Will get close to what Pietrangelo got (and he will be younger than Petro)


    He had one great half season. The guys making that kind of money have had many great full seasons. I will ask again: if he goes back to career norm of 45 points next year, who is going to give him anywhere close to $10M?
     
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