my picks

1. Canadiens
2. Canucks
3. Jets
4. Oilers
5, Flames
6. Maple Leafs
7. Senators

Trying to set bias opinion aside I still think Edmonton is the best Canadian team. Kahun turris jp and Barrie are big additions only real subtraction is klef who could very well return late in season like a deadline addition if so I’m not sure how debatable it really is.

not a chance the leafs finish that low. Leafs will be top three, unbiased.

Leafs should finish top 2, Flames are probably the only team that can finish above them but they could also finish as low as 4th. If Jets can get 1 more legitimate top 4 LD they could win the division though. If not I think the Jets, Oilers, Habs, and Nucks are all a toss up.

Theres always a chance. No one went into last season thinking they'd miss the playoffs but here we are.

lol you definatley sound like your biased

no one went into last season thinking a pandemic would stop hockey and everything else but here we are

True but for the Leafs you can take a guess on how it would happen.

Whatever made Brodie collapse during a practice last season hits again but worse leaving a hole at the top of their right side. Freddy's disappointing season wasn't a 1 time thing and Campbell is more his first 60 games in the NHL than his last 6.

My picks would be: Calgary, Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Edmonton, Ottawa.

or you can assume none of that happens and that the leafs will be a good team this year?

We could but the point is you can't say there's 'no chance' that they will finish that low in the division. Its even easy to see how it would happen.

so there's a chance that the flames finish low in the division because Markstrom could return to being subpar, Monahan might go on an absence leave, Giordano could get injured, etc?

Sure, there are surprises with teams every single year in the NHL. 'No chance' doesn't exist.

possibly but you don't just assume those thins, you look at the team when it's at its best and go from there

- Oilers were the best team of these 7 last year (.585) and the consensus opinion is that they improved over the offseason. Dom at The Athletic has them improving by +2.0 wins. The only way they finish 4th is if McDavid or Draisaitl go down for a significant stretch.
- Maple Leafs were the 2nd best team last year (.579) but got older and slower which is predicted to have a -1.5 win effect in the standings. They probably still finish 2nd just because the teams below them haven't done very well, but 6th?
- Canucks were 3rd at .565, but unfortunately had a very poor offseason and are projected to decline by -0.9 wins. Not sure how you see them moving UP in the standings with all the quality players they lost. They're probably 5th / 6th best team in Canada.
- Flames were .564 last year. Dom has them declining by -0.5 wins do to losing Brodie and adding Nordstrom.
- Jets were right behind at .563 last year. Their projected +1.4 wins has them moving up, probably to 3rd.
- Canadiens was just .500 last year. Their offseason has produced a rating of +0.5 wins, meaning they aren't likely to make a 16-team playoffs again. First in the division is highly optimistic.
- Ottawa was last at .437 and are set to decline by -0.6 wins, unless Murray plays much better than he did last year.

Flames aren't going to be much better. Markstrom is more consistent than Talbot but he wasn't better last year: his .918 sv% trailed Talbot's .919. The team to beat in this division is the Oilers: they were the best of the Canadian teams last year and they've improved the most over the offseason.

I'm biased against the Leafs. But they are a top-3 team in this group, no question.

Edmonton was the #1 team in the division last year and they improved the most in the offseason.

Not more that Montreal imo but their core is weaker

Edmonton definitely did not improve the most this off season lol. They lost their #1D so they replaced him with a powerplay specialist who isnt going to improve their already unsustainable PP%. Puljujarvi is a complete wild card so dont bet on him, Kahun is decent but middle 6. They added Turris when they needed a 3C who strong defensively. Instead they got one of the most sheltered top 9 centers in the league, and at age 31 its not a development shelter. Besides that the team is pretty much the same and a lot of their numbers should come back down to earth a bit too. They should finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th in a Canadian division

Where would you place them in the pacific division?

3rd or 4th. Vegas wins, Calgary 2nd, Vancouver and Edmonton fight for 3rd

https://theathletic.com/2149930/2020/10/21/nhl-offseason-by-the-numbers-which-teams-have-improved-the-most-and-least/

Montreal Canadiens

Wins Added: 0.5 wins

Salary Added: $12.3 million

In: Josh Anderson, Jake Allen, Tyler Toffoli, Joel Edmundson

Out: Max Domi

This may feel like a shockingly low spot for the Canadiens, so it’s worth explaining what the model sees here for a team that is spending $12.3 million to earn an extra 0.5 wins.

For starters, the Jake Allen and Joel Edmundson additions don’t move the needle. In Allen’s case, the model doesn’t account for the fact that Carey Price will likely perform better from being more well-rested. As for Edmundson, he’s not viewed fondly by the model and pushes arguably stronger options like Brett Kulak and Victor Mete down the depth chart.

Up front, both Tyler Toffoli and Josh Anderson grade out as top-six calibre forwards, but neither project to be as good as Max Domi. Together they are, but the Canadiens were already relatively deep at wing meaning the two moves offer diminishing returns. In any sense, the forward group is indeed stronger and that’s where the 0.5 extra wins comes from.

*******************

Edmonton Oilers

Wins Added: 1.0 wins

Salary Added: $4.4 million

In: Tyson Barrie, Kyle Turris

Out: Matt Benning, Andreas Athanasiou, Riley Sheahan

The Oilers aren’t on this side of the offseason ledger often, but they did well this fall. With Oscar Klefbom injured, Tyson Barrie is a strong add at a reasonable price as a guy who can move the puck up ice and quarterback the top unit power play. The Oilers are short on puck-movers on the back end and Barrie’s presence should make life a little more fun for the team’s talented forwards. Kyle Turris isn’t what he once was but the potential for a bounce-back campaign is alluring.

The issue with both is that neither does much to solve the team’s defensive issues. In fact, they probably add to it. Regardless, both remain a net positive thanks to their offensive contributions and the Oilers should be better positioned to be a playoff team next season because of it.

**********

And since then Edmonton has added Kahun who grades out at +1.0 wins: https://theathletic.com/2123801/2020/10/08/no-deal-analyzing-9-intriguing-players-who-werent-tendered-qualifying-offers/

Am I missing something here? When did they lose Darnell Nurse? Newsflash: Oscar Klefbom isn't their #1D and hasn't been for several years. His effectiveness was reduced last year to the point that when he missed some games and Caleb Jones stepped into his 2nd pairing spot, Larsson performed better. Look it up.

The Oilers were the #1 team in Canada last year. Kahun, Turris, Ennis and Barrie unquestionably make the team better, possibly Puljujarvi too. Since most of the teams immediately below them appear to have tread water or gotton worse, it's not intelligent to suggest that the Oilers finish near the bottom of the pack.

https://theathletic.com/2149930/2020/10/21/nhl-offseason-by-the-numbers-which-teams-have-improved-the-most-and-least/

Vancouver was 3rd last year and have lost a bunch of good players. Edmonton was 2nd and gained ground. That's a nonsensical take.

Vancouver Canucks

Wins Added: -0.9 wins

Salary Added: -$6.2 million

In: Nate Schmidt, Braden Holtby

Out: Jacob Markstrom, Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev, Troy Stecher, Josh Leivo

Before Vancouver traded for Nate Schmidt this was looking like a rough offseason in terms of on-ice value lost. Schmidt projects to provide top pairing value worth around 1.5 wins and he’s the difference between Vancouver’s place here instead of in the bottom five. He’s a strong addition at almost no cost.

Before that things were looking bleak, with Jacob Markstrom, Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev and Troy Stecher all signing elsewhere. The Canucks were right to let Markstrom and Tanev walk given the contracts they signed, but it still stings losing their production. The Toffoli deal really hurt because it was hard to believe the Canucks couldn’t match the price. Those were three important pieces whose value would be difficult to replace and possibly be the difference between Vancouver being a likely playoff team next year and not. Schmidt alleviates that, but not by enough as the Canucks are still one win worse than they were last season.

https://theathletic.com/2149930/2020/10/21/nhl-offseason-by-the-numbers-which-teams-have-improved-the-most-and-least/