Poehling likely won't get more than his qualifying offer, 750k on a 1 year deal.
Looking at Mete's (current) 4th year contract (in the current flat cap environment), Fleury and Juulsen likely won't get more than their's either (also $750k).
My guess is that Danault ends up signing at the end of the season for far less than most of us are talking about right now.
Whether Tatar extends or not at season's end also likely depends on his relative performance compared to our other LWs. I could see Bergevin agreeing to a 3x$4.25mm extension right now (ends same as Toffoli), but not much more than that, if anything.
I think you have a fair estimate for KK, I could see his cap hit either being +/- $1mm from that figure. My guess right now would be in and around $2.75mm, but his performances this season vs. his peers will ultimately be what determines the final $ figure.

I don't see Tatar asking for less than $6M given his consistent ~60 point status... even if he might start to decline soon he will want to cash in. I expect Danault to ask for something similar with an extra couple of years of term.

Tyler Toffoli just signed as a UFA, available to the entire league, for 4x$4.25mm. Similar statistics to Tatar. Stanley cup winner. 1.5 years younger. Bigger. Similar goal scoring. Scarcity value of a RH shot. Great person. And just overall, a super smart and valuable hockey player. Probably the perfect player to play alongside Nick Suzuki.

Tatar can ask. As can Danault. Doesn't mean that's what they're going to ultimately end up getting. Edmundson supposedly asked Carolina for a $6.5mm cap hit.

The world has changed.

I hope you're right! To your point about Tatar being older, that might mean he will want more given this could be his last "big" contract. Whereas given Toffoli is younger, he could see a reasonable raise after 4 years if he performs well (next to Suzuki for example)

I'm curious what the largest contract was that was given out to a 30 year old winger joining a new team (in, let's say, the last 2 years). Both in terms of cap hit and term. For a player with similar statistics to Tatar.

Is THIS what you are looking for?

Seriously, how good is this website!
So from that list there's Pavelski (if you count centers), Zuccarello, and that's it. Zuccarello is definitely a nice comp for Tatar to have though.