Modifié 22 oct. 2020 à 15 h 46
Quoting: HatterTParty
Like I said, I completely get what your saying and respect it. It’s an optimistic view. We are just having one of our “ends of the spectrum” debates is all.
No matter what happens in the next three years, there’s simply nothing this team has done in the last 5-6 years to suggest they can grow the prospects properly. I’m not gonna talk about cup runs. I’m not even thinking of the possibility of a cup for another decade honestly. Never mind 4-5 years from now cuz there’s nothing suggesting that’s possible. Optimistically, sure, it’s possible, but my job requires me to be a realist. I’m fine with keeping toews and Kane, so long as an actual rebuild happens, cuz I’ve seen this smokescreen before. Not to mention, what happens when Colliton gets an extension? There goes your rebuild dead on arrival.
The problem I have with a passive, soft rebuild is that it requires way too many things to go right as much as a hard rebuild. What happens with the team’s contracts in two years when everyone expires except kane, toews, Keith, seabs, and cat? I’ve had to do models on it, and soooo much has to go right.
Owen Power for the win, pain for Shane. Nuff said.
Dach just still has several flaws guys like me just don’t like. Statistics and analytics make up a huge part of my job and it’s a hard look with him. Everything he suppose to good at he is, and everything he was bad at he still is. I did see the pronman article and honestly after the top 20, it was clear to see how subjective it was. I’m not saying he isn’t great, but he’s prone to weird choices like everyone. That newhook ranking was borderline criminal. The stretch between perfetti and Rossi was staggering. I had perfetti getting drafted in the teens! I almost made it. So it wasn’t terrible, but it’s like any list, there’s some you agree with and don’t. Dach’s rank was fine, maybe a little high for my taste, but hey, his opinion. He’s definitely the biggest X factor for the hawks going forward, but he’s gotta clean so much bad stuff in his game but none of the coaches will tell him because they don’t give a crap about modern game style.
You're right, a lot has to go right in a soft rebuild but when you have core young pieces like Dach, Kubalik, Debrincat, Strome, Boqvist, Mitchell, and expiring money tied to De Haan, Saad and Maatta's retentions, Shaw, Smith, Carps, Murphy, etc. coming off the books in 2 years or less, I get why there is enough reason to do a soft rebuild not to mention an expansion in a year as you can now afford to keep the guys that expire in 2 years...sure maybe 1 of them is moved like a Boqvist or a Strome.
Looking 4 to 5 years down the road to making a run, you also have Seabs coming off the books (if not sooner) and that creates the cap ability to acquire a final piece to the puzzle in a top 6 role or top D line role. We do have a very strong young core in those guys already on the roster and 4 more years of development, like I said, will determine if 80% of those guys reach their potential (room for 1 to falter or get traded) and a must from Dach.
The alternative is you do a full rebuild and move all the core guys for picks and prospects and gamble that they work out. Your timetable goes from 4 to 5 years and turns to 6 to 7. In that process the team loses any identity they have and can turn into a cycle of players not working out and bottom 3rd performances year after year, and having 1 or 2 stars that don't like their team; see Buffalo, Ottawa, Arizona, Edmonton, etc. It's great to have a eichel on your team and a dahlin but where's the identity and how many years of bottom 3rd in the league finishes does it take?
Every single player has flaws in his game, even Austin Matthews who is easily the #1 prospect/player under the age of 23 in the league. What you are saying is not entirely true because Dach wasn't "supposed to be" a great skater and be slow; he's not. Dach is above average with his speed and proved all his critics on that point wrong. He worked hard during the break and emphasized this in the play-in and playoff series which is something to be excited about as he heard his critics and purposely worked on it....he even talked about this in a interview a couple months ago. Dach is very smart to that end. Yes, I agree Rossi is ranked too low and think Turcotte should be around numbers 45 to 55, but despite what I wanted prior to the draft and after the draft, I'm very glad the Hawks didn't take Turcotte at this point. His flaws were highlighted playing against bigger more physical competition in the NCAA and only will get worse in the NHL. He's going to take a lot of time to develop and could see him being the next Kotkaniemi who is going to struggle in the first few years in the NHL and may never adjust to become a first liner like Kotkaniemi. Vegas odds, and Pronman agrees, Dach is higher rated then either because his adjustments are more minor in comparison to reach his potential. So the question really in mind is, did the Hawks screw up by not taking Byram or Cozens (along with Turcotte those were really the only options at #3) and I have a feeling they didn't as does Pronman. I like that some of the hype of Jack Hughes has died off finally, I don't think he's going to be better then Dach or Kappo ultimately. He'll be very good but is overrated IMO and will be in the mix of "who's better besides Dach at C" with Turcotte, Cozens, Zegras, Newhook. Dach is looking more and more like Toews IMO and less like Getlaz. Dach just needs to find work hard on his shot.