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Sens Draft Recap and Future Outlook

Créé par: Alfie11
Équipe: 2020-21 Sénateurs d'Ottawa
Date de création initiale: 7 oct. 2020
Publié: 7 oct. 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
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I'm not gonna lie, if we had Byfield and/or Raymond I'd be planning the parade route, but this was still a really solid draft all around, I think the Sens have done really well. Last week we had 10 picks in the top 4 rounds. We turned that into a solid right-handed NHL-ready defensive defenseman, a starting goalie, two big left-handed defensemen (one of whom seems like a lock for a top 4 role long term), an uber-skilled future top line player (whether that's at C or LW remains to be seen), a gritty centre who increases our depth up the middle and will likely be a solid depth player, a couple power forward wingers, and a goalie I've never heard of, which is a pretty solid haul. The identity is pretty clearly big and difficult to play against, which is a mantra I can get behind. I think we need one more high-end, top-line forward (either at C or RW) but I love our D prospects and we now have Murray and several promising goalie prospects.

Picks this year:

#3 Tim Stutzle
Top line skilled playmaker, I hope he turns into a centre. He'll probably start at 2LW right away to get him acclimated to the NHL, and then try moving to the middle at some point either halfway through the year or in his sophomore year. If he's a LW, then we'll have one of the most stacked left sides with him and Chucky, if he's a centre he'd be a perfect setup guy for Chucky, can't go wrong with this guy.

#5 Jake Sanderson
Figured this would be our guy at 5. I do think there were some higher value/skill players left on the board, but he'll be a reliable #2 or #3 guy in the top 4 playing a solid physical defensive game. He should be a guy we can rely on in the playoffs to be a minute muncher, take hard matchups, and clutch up in the last minute of games so it's not like it's a bad pick lol, he's still a fantastic player who will be very good for us for a long time. Likely partnered with Brannstrom on the second pair long term, shifting to play with JBD on PK1/when we're up a goal with a minute to go. This completes our long term outlook in the top 4 on D very nicely.

#28 Ridly Greig
Greig is an interesting pick, he's a gritty, character guy who can play all situations. He's good at faceoffs as well, so he probably projects as a physical, shutdown 3C long term, and just adds to our crazy depth up the middle, I like it.

#33 Roby Jarventie
Don't know much about this kid other than he's a Finnish power forward who was projected to go in the 3rd who they probably saw a lot of while watching Thomson. He has a fantastic shot and is great offensively, but sucks defensively. I think he could be a real valuable depth scorer on a line with a guy like Tierney or Greig and C. Brown long term. I'm sure Ottawa will spend a few years developing him and working on his defensive game in the AHL as well so he should be well rounded by the time he reaches the big club, and you can never complain about a guy with the natural ability to score. Do I think they coulda got him with a later pick? Maybe. Do I think they got it wrong? I think I'm gonna trust them for now, we'll see how he looks in 2 years. Based on track record I'm inclined to think they've got a good read on this guy.

#44 Tyler Kleven
Another big, physical, defensive defenseman, Kleven will likely be a solid PK2/3LD guy long term, nothing wrong with that. We might have some troubles if we expect him to be better than that, but we have the depth to allow him the time to develop so he should be able to reach that point, and if he reaches a higher potential than that then it's bonus.

#61 Egor Sokolov
Prototypical power forward with scoring touch is a solid scouting report. Skating and defensive game need work but a couple years in the AHL should help correct that. He could be a steal if he learns to get his feet moving, he's another guy with a fantastic shot, and honestly that's a skill I love seeing the Sens draft, putting the puck in the net is super important, and some of these drawbacks can be taught--that killer instinct and the ability to score can not.

#71 Leevi Merilainen
Not gonna lie I know nothing about him. Hopefully he's good lol? I probably woulda gone with Clang or Bednar. At least he's European, so he can develop in Finland for 2 or 3 years while we sort out our North American pipeline.

Next year's lines:
Tkachuk-L. Brown-White
Woulda had Duke on RW if we'd qualified him smh. I think we have to try Brown in a role similar to the one we want him to fill long term. He's too good for the AHL, hopefully he can prove he's a regular top 6 NHLer, otherwise we will have to deal him in the next year. White should bounce back, I have faith.

Stutzle-Tierney-Batherson
I want Norris in a top 6 role, but I think we need L. Brown there more, and an all-rookie line seems like a bad idea, so put the guys who are more likely to be a sure thing at the NHL level around a good 2-way guy in Tierney. If we trade Tierney, I'd like to sign/trade for someone for cheap (Turris would be great, Bozak works via trade) to fill this role as a veteran guy.

Formenton-Norris-C. Brown
I expect Formenton to have a great camp and prove he belongs, he made the team out of camp either last year or the year before, I don't exactly remember, but after a great AHL season I expect him to stick this time. Norris also had a great AHL season and should push to make the big club next year. Brown should act as a solid mentor to these guys, hopefully being able to pick up some of the slack defensively and teach them a thing or two, while keeping up offensively.

Paul-Anisimov-Balcers
I like Paul and I think Balcers is too good for the AHL so they'll form a solid energy line. Anisimov is probably deadline trade bait if he stays healthy, but we can play him here for now. Maybe Paul slides to centre and we bring up Abramov if he gets dealt? Would also not be opposed to signing Turris and bumping him out of the lineup/dealing him right now/playing him on the wing and letting Balcers dominate in the AHL a little more.

Chabot-Zaitsev
Chabot is obviously an all star, probably gonna be in the Norris conversation when we're good again. Huge minute muncher, fantastic player, I love the guy, he's elite. Zaitsev is filler for now, he's not that great but he skated 22+ minutes per night last year and probably will again next year.

Brannstrom-J. Brown
Brannstrom is great and I think he'll be given every opportunity to seize a top 4 role, and run PP2. He likes playing the right side, but I think he'll play on the left in the NHL, at least initially (he might shift over when Sanderson is ready). Brown is a solid shutdown guy with some good underlying numbers and has the size to stop other teams from bullying our rookies. Hopefully he can handle top 4 minutes, he's a potential partner for Chabot long term if so, but if he gels with Brannstrom that would be great too.

Wolanin-Zub
Really wildcard pair here. I'd like to see Wolanin take a step forward in his development. We obviously don't know what we have in Zub, but if he transfers well to North America, he can be to Chabot what Methot was to Karlsson, a reliable defensive guy who can let his partner loose to be creative offensively. We'll have to see, there are high hopes for both of these guys.

Murray
Obviously our new starter, I don't hate the trade, I think it was good value. Obviously the risk is we're banking on him signing for decent term (he has arb rights which could walk him to UFA if he felt so inclined) and also that he regains his cup-winning form. Should be a solid mentor for Hogberg regardless, really hoping he takes 5 years at least.

Hogberg
I think Hogberg has earned a shot, and should be our backup/1B next year. 30 starts?

Note: Assuming no retention on guys who get dealt, the team is cap compliant by 500k with the first 3 scratches making up a 23-man roster.

Scratches:
- Abramov probably needs another year of seasoning but he might push for a spot with a good camp.
- Reilly is trade bait honestly, maybe he starts the year as the 7D and steps in if one of Wolanin or Zub crashes and burns.
- Lajoie I would really like to see develop. I guess he'll probably be a top pair guy in Belleville next year, hopefully he succeeds in that role and can challenge for a bottom pair spot in 2021-22. He might wind up being a depth casualty in a year or two if Wolanin does well, because Chabot, Brannstrom, and Sanderson are pretty sure things and Kleven will be looking for a spot in a few years as well.
- Jaros is aphonestly probably a depth casualty as well, the Brown trade indicated to me that he's probably out the door. With Zub, Zaitsev, Brown, Thomson, and JBD on the right side there's no short term nor long term spot for Jaros in the starting lineup. He'd probably be a decent #6 guy on some team though.
- Nilsson is probably out the door to whoever doesn't get a backup in free agency, I reckon it's much better to run Hogberg as the 1B behind Murray. He's still a pretty good goalie if he's healthy though, so he could fetch a mid-round pick for the collection.
- Chlapik might challenge for a roster spot but I'm not sure if he wins one full time. I could see him being a 13th or 14th forward that we carry everywhere, maybe stepping in if Anisimov gets dealt.
- Not a huge fan of Beaudin, he probably stays in the AHL as a veteran.

Free agency:
RFAs:
We didn't qualify Duclair, Englund, or Hawryluk. Englund and Hawryluk aren't particularly impressive, just non-roster depth pieces so that's fine, I don't really mind letting them walk. Not qualifying Duke is unfathomably stupid. Even if you don't want to give him a ton of money/term (I think 2-4 years at 3.5-4 is fair but apparently he wants like 5x4.5 so I can see that being a decline from the Sens side) it's still dumb to not qualify him. Worst case scenario he goes to arbitration and gets an absurd number for one year (what would that even be, I doubt he approaches 6 even honestly, like the standard would be a Kapanen/Johnsson type of deal, no?) and then you sign him to that, and deal him for a pick at half-retained. I think Duke is severely overvaluing himself, especially in this climate. I just hope when he realizes what a reasonable price is, he decides to come back to a place where he revived his career and where he knows he'll have a home and be given every opportunity to earn a real payday in 2 or 3 years when the market recovers.

UFAs:
I don't see Ottawa being too active in free agency. Maybe one veteran forward (probably a bottom six guy) or a depth defenseman (if we can get one for cheaper than Reilly who can serve as a bottom pair guy we can deal Reilly and still have insurance against Wolanin and/or Zub disappointing). If they make a decent sized signing it's likely to be another Ennis situation, one year at a reasonable price, with the promise of being dealt at the deadline. I'm all for this honestly, making some of our young guys really fight for a spot, and some of them only getting in full time at the deadline sounds great to me. I would be interested in some of the unqualified guys though. Kahun, Bracco, Stecher, Cousins, Boyd, Simon, Athanasiou, Benning, Wallmark, Verhaeghe, Bowey, Jankowski, and Hinostroza are all interesting names that could fill roles on the Sens, or in some cases use increased ice time to revive their career, like Duclair did. Taking a flier on a couple of them might be worth the risk. Also, Turris back would be nice, I like him and he'd be a solid mentor with experience of a deep playoff run. Him doing us a solid by being a mentor would be good, then maybe we can return the favour and deal him to an actual contender. Then sign him again when we're good in 3 years haha, I want him on the Sens when we win a cup, even if it's as a 4C.

Overall, the message is that this team is gonna be big, nasty, defensively responsible, and still have some high-end skill and speed to beat you with, I like it a lot. Solid goalie pipeline, fantastic defense prospects, and several future studs up front, as well as some high risk high reward prospects we've taken with later picks makes things look a lot less grim for the coming years (I have faith in our development system, if anyone can turn guys like Jarventie and Sokolov into solid long-term contributors it's the Sens). My prediction is we're still a bottom 10 team next year, but we might hang around in the playoff race longer than people expect, especially if our rookies succeed. Another high pick next year to solidify our future would be fantastic. I would love to acquire another 2021 1st but idk how, unless some team really likes Tierney? Maybe Tierney+Jaros+4th or something for a 1st+AHL player to balance contracts could work.
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M-NTC
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6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
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DG/DD, AG
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1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
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UFA - 1
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710 000 $710 000 $ (Bonis de performance70 000 $$70K)
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DD
UFA - 1
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7 oct. 2020 à 21 h 14
#1
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Yes it's a whole ass essay, fight me. Would appreciate comments on the things I actually wrote, I address the draft, the lines next year, and free agency if you don't wanna read all of it.
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7 oct. 2020 à 21 h 25
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Great essay I’d give it a 95%. I fully agree with you that not qualifying duclair is dumb. Is Zub supposed to be good ? Don’t know too much about him. Also didn’t they sens loan Brannstrom ? And finally Ottawa has so many prospects who I could see at the nhl level but all of them you gave some consideration to.
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7 oct. 2020 à 21 h 27
#3
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honestly greig reminds me a bit of pager. The whole future looks great though, cant wait
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7 oct. 2020 à 22 h 0
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outside of Stutzle this is without a doubt the worst draft in sens history that will haunt them for a decade+. there is ZERO justification in taking sanderson in a elite forward rich draft, ZERO.

I think the Athletic summed this up well:

" The Senators had an opportunity to re-shape their first line with two forwards at the top of this draft. Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson are great pieces. So are Shane Pinto Josh Norris, Alex Formenton and the rest. But the difference between prospects like Perfetti and Rossi and those names is a heck of a lot wider than the one between Sanderson and what the Senators already have coming in Thomas Chabot, Erik Brannstrom, Lassi Thomson, and Jacob Bernard-Docker."

id would add Holtz and Quinn with Perfetti and Rossi
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7 oct. 2020 à 22 h 31
#5
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
Great essay I’d give it a 95%. I fully agree with you that not qualifying duclair is dumb. Is Zub supposed to be good ? Don’t know too much about him. Also didn’t they sens loan Brannstrom ? And finally Ottawa has so many prospects who I could see at the nhl level but all of them you gave some consideration to.

He’s supposed to be good but not a piece you build around. Upside is probably Methot, just a solid defensively responsible minute muncher in the top 4. Downside is he sucks and bolts back to Russia but it’s literally zero risk considering we aren’t contenders, it’s less than 1mil, and we gave up no assets to sign him. Yes they loaned Brannstrom and a couple other guys but that’s only until the NHL starts again.

Quoting: Borocop
honestly greig reminds me a bit of pager. The whole future looks great though, cant wait

I agree, hopefully he turns out that good! Including the knack for clutch playoff goals 👀

Quoting: athrin
outside of Stutzle this is without a doubt the worst draft in sens history that will haunt them for a decade+. there is ZERO justification in taking sanderson in a elite forward rich draft, ZERO.

I think the Athletic summed this up well:

" The Senators had an opportunity to re-shape their first line with two forwards at the top of this draft. Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson are great pieces. So are Shane Pinto Josh Norris, Alex Formenton and the rest. But the difference between prospects like Perfetti and Rossi and those names is a heck of a lot wider than the one between Sanderson and what the Senators already have coming in Thomas Chabot, Erik Brannstrom, Lassi Thomson, and Jacob Bernard-Docker."

id would add Holtz and Quinn with Perfetti and Rossi

Idk about all that man. I’d prefer Holtz probably, but this Sens team is built to be like some of the best teams this year, like the Stars and Isles. They have a few high end skill guys and the rest of the team locks it down defensively and grinds you to death. The majority of the team is comprised of guys you don’t want to face in the corners, with some high end speed and talent from Stutzle, Formenton, and Norris thrown in (like Barzal, Beauvillier, Bailey, Seguin, Gurianov).
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7 oct. 2020 à 22 h 44
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7 oct. 2020 à 23 h 14
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On the Draft: I think I soured on their picks as they went later and later, but they still did better than any draft since 2015.

Stützle and Sanderson are both obviously incredible picks that speak for themselves with how important they project to be.
Greig is a very Sens late 1st pick, being a "safe pick" who still has middle six upside playing a Pageau esque game, though I think he's more of a winger.
I really like the Jarventie pick, I think his blend of size and speed, with the offensive skillset he has, he's a great fit with what this team wants to be, and Ottawa is a great fit to help him overcome the issues in his game that could hold him back. I think he's got even more upside than Greig if he can round out his game to go with his offensive toolkit.
Kleven is a pick I think the Sens flat out messed up on. They got the blinders on his big size, physicality and the fact he's UND bound, and really ignored the huge red flags in his skating, decision making and his lack of ability to break the puck out of the zone, which are all things that will hold him back from being a good NHL player. I don't think he's got an NHL future, or even worse, I think he does have a future and he will just be a bad NHL player, because those guys get drafted too. The fact that Toronto got Hirvonen and Neimela is going to make this trade really tough to look back on.
I don't know about his upside, but I actually really like Sokolov. Big Russian power forward, and he's former billet brother of Drake Batherson. Definitely a project but could be a nice bottom six piece if he pans out, and he sounds like he's a really good guy.
The rest of the draft I'm pretty ambivalent on. I like the Swedish winger, but they really went in on a lot of overagers, and I'm really not sure I like that strategy, as those players generally have as much room to grow.
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8 oct. 2020 à 1 h 6
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Quoting: Claesson4Norris
On the Draft: I think I soured on their picks as they went later and later, but they still did better than any draft since 2015.

Stützle and Sanderson are both obviously incredible picks that speak for themselves with how important they project to be.
Greig is a very Sens late 1st pick, being a "safe pick" who still has middle six upside playing a Pageau esque game, though I think he's more of a winger.
I really like the Jarventie pick, I think his blend of size and speed, with the offensive skillset he has, he's a great fit with what this team wants to be, and Ottawa is a great fit to help him overcome the issues in his game that could hold him back. I think he's got even more upside than Greig if he can round out his game to go with his offensive toolkit.
Kleven is a pick I think the Sens flat out messed up on. They got the blinders on his big size, physicality and the fact he's UND bound, and really ignored the huge red flags in his skating, decision making and his lack of ability to break the puck out of the zone, which are all things that will hold him back from being a good NHL player. I don't think he's got an NHL future, or even worse, I think he does have a future and he will just be a bad NHL player, because those guys get drafted too. The fact that Toronto got Hirvonen and Neimela is going to make this trade really tough to look back on.
I don't know about his upside, but I actually really like Sokolov. Big Russian power forward, and he's former billet brother of Drake Batherson. Definitely a project but could be a nice bottom six piece if he pans out, and he sounds like he's a really good guy.
The rest of the draft I'm pretty ambivalent on. I like the Swedish winger, but they really went in on a lot of overagers, and I'm really not sure I like that strategy, as those players generally have as much room to grow.

I agree with your initial sentiment, not overly pleased with their selections outside the first round. Like there's upside in most of them (still never heard of the goalie, and neither has the internet apparently) but I think they went with guys that were friends of guys they own rather than best available, and they didn't even use that excuse to pick Peterka at 33, the only "friend of a guy we own" that was actually projected around where we selected. As far as Jarventie goes, he's okay, but he probably woulda slipped to 59. If you trade up to 44, pick him there. Ngl, if I was trading up at that point (post-Gunler) my target woulda been Niederbach, I think he's this year's Aho, but yeah I think Jarventie at 33 was a reach.

Missing on Gunler and Peterka at 33 was probably the biggest mistake (outside maybe the goalie... like just take Clang, if for no other reason than that's an awesome goalie name, or at least Bednar). You might be right about Kleven, he's definitely a project that they'll let simmer for 5 years or so, hopefully they can work on fixing some of those flaws at UND then Belleville. I don't think he'll peak at more than 3LD though, unless he's a late bloomer, so hopefully he isn't too much of an anchor. I am a fan of Hirvonen and Niemela though so it pains me that the Leafs got two decent prospects out of this.

Sokolov I do like, but I think he needs a year or two of seasoning in the minors (some people seem to think he can jump straight to the NHL but I think that's a mistake and they can afford to be patient). I don't know much about their picks after 71 so I didn't comment on those but who knows, maybe we hit a home run on one of them. If not then Belleville just gets some depth.
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8 oct. 2020 à 9 h 0
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The draft: Stutzle is great, super excited to see him play. Sanderson is understandable, needed as our D in about year is going to be crazy good. Greig is going to be the sandpaper 3rd-4th line centre. Everything after that confuses as it's a wait and see approach for the future.

The trades: Great price for 2-time Stanley Cup winning goalie. I'm glad we didn't have to trade a major asset for him. It also shuts up the Pens fans saying they were getting a 1st round pick/a top 6 centre.

The RFAs: Duclair not being qualified is baffling. Duclair representing himself is even more baffling. Duclair is about to lose a ton of money because of the market. He has no grounds to negotiate when he's so been inconsistent. He was liked here, had top 6 minutes, coach trusted him... I think he wanted a massive raise and a 1 or 2 year more on the term (ex: 4 years at 5 per).

I see us improving ever so slightly next year, but still out of the playoffs.
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8 oct. 2020 à 10 h 19
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Was okay with the 1st round. Coming to terms with Sanderson after Raymond was taken 4th.

I disliked the 2nd round. I would rather have taken either of Hirvonen and Niemela over Kleven let alone both. I would have liked to see OTT take gambles on high talent offense. I would have traded up in the 3rd or 4th for Mysak/Chromiak or Poirier

If I had to grade the draft my heart says C+. If Sanderson turns out to be Seth Jones its a B+, if he turns out to be Brian Lee (Another top 10 OTT draft going to UND) its a D+

I love the value on the Murray trade.

I dont understand what were gonna do to make it to the cap floor unless we start taking on some assets.
8 oct. 2020 à 10 h 30
#11
KFTW
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3rd overall - Stutzle is a no brainer , i think hes going to end up as a 1C. (A+)
5th overall - Sanderson, ill give this pick a B+ , i think hes going to be extremely solid defensively and in the transition game but im holding hope he can put up 40+ pts as well. He's exactly what a guy like Thomson, Brannstrom or even Chabot would need in a partner. This gives us 5 of our 6 projected blueliners as 1st round picks with the exception of Wolanin.
28 - Greig - i understand this pick , i wanted Peterka but this guy is pretty young and got better as the year got on. I think hes going to surprise even more and up his stock.
33 - Jarvanti - honestly i have no idea who that is and still havent gotten around to watching highlights but i heard hes a Sens type pick with one of the best shots in the draft. Excited to see his potential
Rest of the draft - Dont understand the goalie pick, i thought Kleven wouldve been good in the early 3rd round but losing Hirvonen and Niemela yikes. Sokolov has good potential imo even if hes 20.

I understand why they let Duclair go but this makes us need wingers even more. Hes how i see it:
Defence is for sure set no need to add top level dmen anymore.
Center depth with Stutzle, Norris, Brown, Pinto, maybe Greig, maybe White etc will be fine.
Winger depth might need some work, im hoping they go after young top 6 potential wingers like Debrusk , Tuch etc. Thats where our biggest needs are imo as well as 1 or 2 snipers who can rip it off a one timer on the PP, i wish we could get Laine.
Alfie11 a aimé ceci.
8 oct. 2020 à 12 h 54
#12
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Quoting: csick
3rd overall - Stutzle is a no brainer , i think hes going to end up as a 1C. (A+)
5th overall - Sanderson, ill give this pick a B+ , i think hes going to be extremely solid defensively and in the transition game but im holding hope he can put up 40+ pts as well. He's exactly what a guy like Thomson, Brannstrom or even Chabot would need in a partner. This gives us 5 of our 6 projected blueliners as 1st round picks with the exception of Wolanin.
28 - Greig - i understand this pick , i wanted Peterka but this guy is pretty young and got better as the year got on. I think hes going to surprise even more and up his stock.
33 - Jarvanti - honestly i have no idea who that is and still havent gotten around to watching highlights but i heard hes a Sens type pick with one of the best shots in the draft. Excited to see his potential
Rest of the draft - Dont understand the goalie pick, i thought Kleven wouldve been good in the early 3rd round but losing Hirvonen and Niemela yikes. Sokolov has good potential imo even if hes 20.

I understand why they let Duclair go but this makes us need wingers even more. Hes how i see it:
Defence is for sure set no need to add top level dmen anymore.
Center depth with Stutzle, Norris, Brown, Pinto, maybe Greig, maybe White etc will be fine.
Winger depth might need some work, im hoping they go after young top 6 potential wingers like Debrusk , Tuch etc. Thats where our biggest needs are imo as well as 1 or 2 snipers who can rip it off a one timer on the PP, i wish we could get Laine.


you draft player line Laine and De Brusk as they very very rarely get traded in their prime so forget OTT EVER getting one of those types as they blew it with the 5th OA pick, they chose mediocre players for their "sandpaperness" rather than skill and they will struggle worst than the 2000 to 2018ish MTL to score goals, whether OTT "needed" sanderson or not is not debatable, they answer is no OTT did not, his type are a dime a dozen, elite forward talent is not, the Graig pick would be fine of OTT got a F with 5th OA, the last thing OTT needs are more 3rd liners....the only thing that could save OTT for their ****ness is if they get 1st OA next year or Norris, Batherson, Formenton and LBrown all develop into CONSISTANT 30+ goal scorers, that is a huge gamble IMO. Only time will tell how badly the sens Fed up this draft.

FYI i haver nothing against Sanderson, he will be like Phillips, its just OTT did NOT need him in any way shape of form.
csick a aimé ceci.
8 oct. 2020 à 13 h 39
#13
Hockey 1st Sens 2nd
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Wow this is going to be a lot of reading. Hahaha. I'll get to this later today. UGH. I hate it when work gets in the way of HOCKEY TALK!
Alfie11 et Green4D4 a aimé ceci.
 
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