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swapping bad contracts

Créé par: Eli
Équipe: 2020-21 Capitals de Washington
Date de création initiale: 25 sept. 2020
Publié: 25 sept. 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Just trying to see if this could work. Trading the long term risk of the Oshie contract for the short-term cap trouble of the Marner contract. Toronto fans said the deal has to start with Vrana and include an RHD.

I like the value, on paper. Marner is the best player in the trade. But Vrana is so close to being as good, and hasn't played with Matthews yet. Plus the Caps don't have a ready way to open 3M of cap space to re-sign Ovechkin, or another 3M of cap space to bridge Samsonov next summer if the cap stays flat.

I built the forwards as lines and the defense as a depth chart, to show why trading Jensen is unlikely.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
32 000 000 $
2900 000 $
31 250 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
42 500 000 $
Transactions
WSH
  1. Engvall, Pierre
  2. Liljegren, Timothy
  3. Marner, Mitchell
  4. Mikheyev, Ilya [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Marner had two more even strength points than Vrana this year, at over three times the cap hit. But he's had a 90 point season, and he's young, and adding a star right wing might help get more offense out of Ovechkin?
TOR
  1. Jensen, Nick
  2. Oshie, T.J.
  3. Vrána, Jakub
Détails additionnels:
Vrana, on Toronto's top power play with Matthews and Tavares, might just outscore Marner. So that's a risk. Caps fans think of Oshie as a spare part, because the Caps have Wilson and Hathaway, but Tor could use a proven 30 goal scorer who gets his nose dirty in front of the net and dominates in the shootout. He could make Toronto's power play even better. Jensen fixes their penalty kill and fills a huge hole at 2RD, opening up the same hole in WSH.
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2020
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Logo de ARI
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Logo de WSH
2021
Logo de WSH
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Logo de VGK
Logo de WSH
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2022
Logo de WSH
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Logo de WSH
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2281 500 000 $71 272 878 $419 749 $1 132 500 $10 227 122 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Capitals de Washington
9 538 462 $9 538 462 $
AG
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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3 900 000 $3 900 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 5
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5 166 667 $5 166 667 $
AD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo de Capitals de Washington
2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
AG
UFA - 3
Logo de Capitals de Washington
9 200 000 $9 200 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
10 903 000 $10 903 000 $
AD
UFA - 5
2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Capitals de Washington
2 415 000 $2 415 000 $
C
UFA - 3
Logo de Capitals de Washington
1 375 000 $1 375 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 3
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
Logo de Capitals de Washington
750 000 $750 000 $
C
UFA - 2
Logo de Capitals de Washington
1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 3
Logo de Capitals de Washington
900 000 $900 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Capitals de Washington
1 275 000 $1 275 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Capitals de Washington
8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 6
Logo de Capitals de Washington
1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Capitals de Washington
2 500 000 $2 500 000 $
DG
UFA - 4
Logo de Capitals de Washington
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance600 000 $$600K)
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Capitals de Washington
2 500 000 $2 500 000 $
DG
UFA - 2
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance400 000 $$400K)
DD
RFA - 2
Logo de Capitals de Washington
1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Capitals de Washington
791 667 $791 667 $ (Bonis de performance132 500 $$132K)
DG/DD
RFA - 3

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25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 44
#1
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Modifié 25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 51
Marner>>>Vrana
Mikheyev>Jensen
Liljegren< Oshie (I disagree with this one but just to prove point if WSH fans were to argue it)

Add in the fact that we save almost no cap? No thank you
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25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 46
#2
Trad Breliving
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This is quite a bit of a yikes ..
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 46
#3
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Quoting: leafs101
Marner>>>Vrana
Mikheyev>Jensen
Liljegren< Oshie

Add in the fact that we save almost no cap? No thank you


Quoting: Kukas26
This is quite a bit of a yikes ..


Quoting: Eli
"I don't really have a great feel for what Orlov is worth, and I'm sure Washington is high on vrana but I think Marner would be the guy to get OVI past Gretzky. Be constructive not a crybaby"

Orlov is really, really consistent. Over the last five years, among left-shot defensemen, he's tied with Yandle for 7th in even strength points, just one ahead of Krug and two ahead of Muzzin: http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20152016&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&position=D&shootsCatches=L&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints&page=0&pageSize=100

On a lot of teams, Orlov could be the power play point guy, and have some 60 point seasons, but in WSH he's more likely to kill penalties and play a shutdown role. So his value is basically Muzzin, a little pricier, but 2.5 years younger. Same skill, but same role makes both almost anonymous, but still very valuable.

This year, among left wings, Vrana tied Gaudreau for 10th in even strength points, with 40: http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&position=L&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints&page=0&pageSize=100

Among right wings, Marner was 8th this year, with 42: http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&position=R&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints&page=0&pageSize=100

Not that different. Both played with good centers. Both did well.

The biggest difference between Vrana's and Marner's trade value to a team with room on its top power play unit for either of them would be Marner's power play points output. To Washington, the biggest difference is cap hit. For the price of Marner, WSH has Vrana plus TJ Oshie, who was on pace for 31g 58p this year.

So my idea of a counteroffer would be something more like Marner and Mikheyev for Vrana and Oshie. Each team gives up one good contract and one bad one. WSH gets a little younger, while Tor adds two leaders with a recent championship. Tor gives up guys who totaled 90 points this year, and gets back guys who totaled 101 points this year.

Basically, each team gets to say it got rid of its worst contract, without a significant drop in talent.
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 47
#4
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Quoting: leafs101
Marner>>>Vrana
Mikheyev>Jensen
Liljegren< Oshie

Add in the fact that we save almost no cap? No thank you


Oshie is signed for 5 more years at nearly $6m and will be 34 to start the coming season... I'm taking Liljegren over that all day.
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25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 47
#5
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Quoting: Eli


this does not change my stance in the slightest
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 48
#6
Banni
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I fail to see the "bad contract" Toronto gives up here. & for that matter, Washington doesn't give one up either. Your title is very misleading,
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25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 48
#7
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Oshie is signed for 5 more years at nearly $6m and will be 34 to start the coming season... I'm taking Liljegren over that all day.

I was putting worst case - figured WSH fans would argue that one so I let them have it to prove the point that its still not really close
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25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 49
#8
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
I fail to see the "bad contract" Toronto gives up here. & for that matter, Washington doesn't give one up either. Your title is very misleading,

Marner overpaid like 2 mil. Oshie paid like 6 mil until he's like 40. It's apples and oranges on this one
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25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 50
#9
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I feel like this significantly hurts the Leaf’s depth; the age difference is so large between the pieces that it can affect our competitiveness for years - more than just keeping Marner. As much as I freaking love Oshie’s game and Vrana seems awesome, losing four young roster pieces with no draft picks coming back to help us later it’s not going to work for Toronto.
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 51
#10
Banni
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Quoting: leafs101
Marner overpaid like 2 mil. Oshie paid like 6 mil until he's like 40. It's apples and oranges on this one


Marner's still young and over a point per game. That contract was signed with the intention of the cap increasing. It didn't. It might not be the best contract, but it's certainly not a bad one one. Oshie is a consistent 50 point player that plays well in all 3 zones. Right now at $5.75M per year, that's definitely not a bad contract.

You might wanna check and see if those apples and oranges are rotten if you think those are "bad contracts"
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 52
#11
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yeah, that's a really easy no from toronto
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25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 53
#12
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Sorry but the vrana marner comparison is just bad. Marner played less games and just flat out up more points. 5v5 and pp... and 4v4 and on the pk... probably 3on3 as well lol.

That package for marner I would probably consider. But you added Lilly mikheyev and engvall.

The idea that leafs “need” to lose cap is false. Do they need to sign petro? Is that even a smart idea?
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 53
#13
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Marner's still young and over a point per game. That contract was signed with the intention of the cap increasing. It didn't. It might not be the best contract, but it's certainly not a bad one one. Oshie is a consistent 50 point player that plays well in all 3 zones. Right now at $5.75M per year, that's definitely not a bad contract.

You might wanna check and see if those apples and oranges are rotten if you think those are "bad contracts"


Oshie looks good now, just wait 2-3 years and see if you think his 5.75 is still all sunshine and rainbows

As for Marner, I agree with what you said, but you can't deny that he's getting paid above market value. A young improving superstar for sure, but 2nd highest paid winger in the league is a bit much. His comparable contract would have been Rantanen's 9.25
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 54
#14
What in tarnation
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Yeah that'll be a relatively easy no from the Leafs.
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 56
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Quoting: leafs101
Marner overpaid like 2 mil. Oshie paid like 6 mil until he's like 40. It's apples and oranges on this one


I think $2m is even overstating it. I'd say like 1.5ish.
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 56
#16
Banni
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Quoting: leafs101
Oshie looks good now, just wait 2-3 years and see if you think his 5.75 is still all sunshine and rainbows

As for Marner, I agree with what you said, but you can't deny that he's getting paid above market value. A young improving superstar for sure, but 2nd highest paid winger in the league is a bit much. His comparable contract would have been Rantanen's 9.25


Rantenen signed after Marner. Can't use that as a comparable
25 sept. 2020 à 20 h 57
#17
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This is a response to a Leafs trade offer of Marner plus nothing Leafs fans like for Vrana plus Orlov. Orlov is basically Muzzin. Marner is basically Vrana plus power play opportunities.

Here's the post that suggested it: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/370910

Neither team creates much cap space out of it. But there are 29 other teams they can trade with.

I think the Caps might consider a shake-up just to make a move, and to possibly add a new 1R to play with Ovechkin, but it leaves their LW depth chart a little bit short on talented guys under 30.

I'm not asking the Leafs to trade Marner for Vrana. I'm against the idea. Vrana is 95% as good at a third of the cap hit. I'm just countering with what it would take to not completely rip the Caps off.
25 sept. 2020 à 21 h 1
#18
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Sorry but the vrana marner comparison is just bad. Marner played less games and just flat out up more points. 5v5 and pp... and 4v4 and on the pk... probably 3on3 as well lol.

That package for marner I would probably consider. But you added Lilly mikheyev and engvall.

The idea that leafs “need” to lose cap is false. Do they need to sign petro? Is that even a smart idea?


So you saw their 5 on 5 numbers and their cap hits and still honestly tried to argue that Marner has more trade value? Marner had two more even strength points at over three times the cap hit. Don't be ridiculous.
25 sept. 2020 à 21 h 1
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Rantenen signed after Marner. Can't use that as a comparable


What does Rantanen signing after Marner have to do with it? If anything it makes it a more relevant comparable because Marner set the market and Rantanen still got paid less despite similar production.
25 sept. 2020 à 21 h 3
#20
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
What does Rantanen signing after Marner have to do with it? If anything it makes it a more relevant comparable because Marner set the market and Rantanen still got paid less despite similar production.


Marner had two more even strength points than Vrana this year at over three times the cap hit. The cap is flat. Cap hit affects trade value. Am I speaking French?
25 sept. 2020 à 21 h 4
#21
Banni
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
What does Rantanen signing after Marner have to do with it? If anything it makes it a more relevant comparable because Marner set the market and Rantanen still got paid less despite similar production.


Because you can't say "use Rantenen as a comparable" in any Marner negotiation because he was already signed. Everyone talked about from the start how Marner would set the market for other players, so the Rantenen had literally zero impact on the Marner contract.
25 sept. 2020 à 21 h 12
#22
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Quoting: Eli
Marner had two more even strength points than Vrana this year at over three times the cap hit. The cap is flat. Cap hit affects trade value. Am I speaking French?


Wtf are you even talking about? My comment had nothing to do with you or Vrana... Am I speaking French?
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25 sept. 2020 à 21 h 23
#23
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Because you can't say "use Rantenen as a comparable" in any Marner negotiation because he was already signed. Everyone talked about from the start how Marner would set the market for other players, so the Rantenen had literally zero impact on the Marner contract.


Okay, but Rantanen's deal was signed after Marner's, so why isn't he getting paid what Marner is despite putting up better numbers heading into their negotiations? Because Marner is overpaid. Rantanen is a great comparable. They are from the same draft, both play wing, put up similar point totals, signed for the same term in the same offseason. Sure, you can't say "They should have based it off of the Rantanen deal", but these are two players who should have gotten similar amounts.
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25 sept. 2020 à 21 h 35
#24
Banni
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Okay, but Rantanen's deal was signed after Marner's, so why isn't he getting paid what Marner is despite putting up better numbers heading into their negotiations? Because Marner is overpaid. Rantanen is a great comparable. They are from the same draft, both play wing, put up similar point totals, signed for the same term in the same offseason. Sure, you can't say "They should have based it off of the Rantanen deal", but these are two players who should have gotten similar amounts.


You're only taking into consideration point totals and think that's the reason why they're comparable? ... Marner's better defensively, he's a leader in the locker room (alternate captain), tax situation is incredibly different in Colorado than it is in Ontario. All of those lead Marner to get more. You can argue Marner is overpaid, sure. But to say that he should have signed for what Rantenen signed for is just false.
25 sept. 2020 à 21 h 43
#25
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
You're only taking into consideration point totals and think that's the reason why they're comparable? ... Marner's better defensively, he's a leader in the locker room (alternate captain), tax situation is incredibly different in Colorado than it is in Ontario. All of those lead Marner to get more. You can argue Marner is overpaid, sure. But to say that he should have signed for what Rantenen signed for is just false.


The US leads the world in the CoViD rate, because our 20 million uninsured people spread it like wildfire. It might be time that we stop factoring taxation rates so heavily into the value of living somewhere, and start to acknowledge that you get what you pay for.
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