Forums/Armchair-GM

swapping bad contracts

Créé par: Eli
Date de création initiale: sep 25, 2020
Publié: 25 sep à 20 h 37
Équipe: 2020-21 Capitals de Washington
Explications
Just trying to see if this could work. Trading the long term risk of the Oshie contract for the short-term cap trouble of the Marner contract. Toronto fans said the deal has to start with Vrana and include an RHD.

I like the value, on paper. Marner is the best player in the trade. But Vrana is so close to being as good, and hasn't played with Matthews yet. Plus the Caps don't have a ready way to open 3M of cap space to re-sign Ovechkin, or another 3M of cap space to bridge Samsonov next summer if the cap stays flat.

I built the forwards as lines and the defense as a depth chart, to show why trading Jensen is unlikely.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
Mikheyev, Ilya32 000 000 $
Boyd, Travis2900 000 $
Siegenthaler, Jonas31 250 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
Dillon, Brenden42 500 000 $
Transactions
WSH
  1. Marner, Mitchell
  2. Mikheyev, Ilya [Droits de RFA]
  3. Liljegren, Timothy
  4. Engvall, Pierre
Détails additionnels:
Marner had two more even strength points than Vrana this year, at over three times the cap hit. But he's had a 90 point season, and he's young, and adding a star right wing might help get more offense out of Ovechkin?
TOR
  1. Vrána, Jakub
  2. Oshie, T.J.
  3. Jensen, Nick
Détails additionnels:
Vrana, on Toronto's top power play with Matthews and Tavares, might just outscore Marner. So that's a risk. Caps fans think of Oshie as a spare part, because the Caps have Wilson and Hathaway, but Tor could use a proven 30 goal scorer who gets his nose dirty in front of the net and dominates in the shootout. He could make Toronto's power play even better. Jensen fixes their penalty kill and fills a huge hole at 2RD, opening up the same hole in WSH.
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2020
WSH
ARI
WSH
WSH
WSH
2021
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
VGK
WSH
WSH
2022
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS BONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2281 500 000 $81 447 877 $419 749 $1 132 500 $52 123 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
WSH
Ovechkin, Alex
9 538 462 $
AG, AD
NTC
UFA - 1
WSH
Kuznetsov, Evgeny
7 800 000 $
C
NTC
UFA - 5
WSH
Wilson, Tom
5 166 666 $
AD
NTC
UFA - 4
WSH
Hagelin, Carl
2 750 000 $
AG
UFA - 3
WSH
Bäckström, Nicklas
9 200 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 5
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
10 893 000 $
AD
UFA - 5
Mikheyev, Ilya
2 000 000 $
AG, AD
RFA
WSH
Eller, Lars
3 500 000 $
C
UFA - 3
WSH
Pánik, Richard
2 750 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 3
TOR
Engvall, Pierre
1 250 000 $
AG, C
RFA - 2
WSH
Dowd, Nic
750 000 $
C
UFA - 2
WSH
Hathaway, Garnet
1 500 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 3
WSH
Boyd, Travis
900 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
WSH
Orlov, Dmitry
5 100 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 3
WSH
Carlson, John
8 000 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 6
WSH
Copley, Pheonix
1 100 000 $
G
UFA - 2
WSH
Dillon, Brenden
2 500 000 $
DG
UFA - 4
TOR
Liljegren, Timothy
863 333 $
DD
RFA - 2
WSH
Samsonov, Ilya
925 000 $
G
RFA - 1
WSH
Kempný, Michal
2 500 000 $
DG
UFA - 2
WSH
Siegenthaler, Jonas
1 250 000 $
DG
RFA
WSH
Fehérváry, Martin
791 667 $
DG
RFA - 3

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25 sep à 20 h 44
#1
Leafs
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 4,555
Mentions "j'aime": 1,578
Modifié 25 sep à 20 h 51
Marner>>>Vrana
Mikheyev>Jensen
Liljegren< Oshie (I disagree with this one but just to prove point if WSH fans were to argue it)

Add in the fact that we save almost no cap? No thank you
MitchMarner_16 et AndrewLadd a aimé ceci.
25 sep à 20 h 46
#2
Rejoint: jui 2020
Messages: 571
Mentions "j'aime": 166
This is quite a bit of a yikes ..
25 sep à 20 h 46
#3
Démarrer sujet
Who adds what?
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 11,598
Mentions "j'aime": 2,146
Quoting: leafs101
Marner>>>Vrana
Mikheyev>Jensen
Liljegren< Oshie

Add in the fact that we save almost no cap? No thank you


Quoting: Kukas26
This is quite a bit of a yikes ..


Quoting: Eli
"I don't really have a great feel for what Orlov is worth, and I'm sure Washington is high on vrana but I think Marner would be the guy to get OVI past Gretzky. Be constructive not a crybaby"

Orlov is really, really consistent. Over the last five years, among left-shot defensemen, he's tied with Yandle for 7th in even strength points, just one ahead of Krug and two ahead of Muzzin: http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20152016&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&position=D&shootsCatches=L&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints&page=0&pageSize=100

On a lot of teams, Orlov could be the power play point guy, and have some 60 point seasons, but in WSH he's more likely to kill penalties and play a shutdown role. So his value is basically Muzzin, a little pricier, but 2.5 years younger. Same skill, but same role makes both almost anonymous, but still very valuable.

This year, among left wings, Vrana tied Gaudreau for 10th in even strength points, with 40: http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&position=L&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints&page=0&pageSize=100

Among right wings, Marner was 8th this year, with 42: http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&position=R&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints&page=0&pageSize=100

Not that different. Both played with good centers. Both did well.

The biggest difference between Vrana's and Marner's trade value to a team with room on its top power play unit for either of them would be Marner's power play points output. To Washington, the biggest difference is cap hit. For the price of Marner, WSH has Vrana plus TJ Oshie, who was on pace for 31g 58p this year.

So my idea of a counteroffer would be something more like Marner and Mikheyev for Vrana and Oshie. Each team gives up one good contract and one bad one. WSH gets a little younger, while Tor adds two leaders with a recent championship. Tor gives up guys who totaled 90 points this year, and gets back guys who totaled 101 points this year.

Basically, each team gets to say it got rid of its worst contract, without a significant drop in talent.
25 sep à 20 h 47
#4
Rejoint: jan 2020
Messages: 2,872
Mentions "j'aime": 1,202
Quoting: leafs101
Marner>>>Vrana
Mikheyev>Jensen
Liljegren< Oshie

Add in the fact that we save almost no cap? No thank you


Oshie is signed for 5 more years at nearly $6m and will be 34 to start the coming season... I'm taking Liljegren over that all day.
leafs101 a aimé ceci.
25 sep à 20 h 47
#5
Leafs
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 4,555
Mentions "j'aime": 1,578
Quoting: Eli


this does not change my stance in the slightest
25 sep à 20 h 48
#6
Rejoint: mar 2018
Messages: 5,496
Mentions "j'aime": 1,492
I fail to see the "bad contract" Toronto gives up here. & for that matter, Washington doesn't give one up either. Your title is very misleading,
leafs101 et Eli a aimé ceci.
25 sep à 20 h 48
#7
Leafs
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 4,555
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Oshie is signed for 5 more years at nearly $6m and will be 34 to start the coming season... I'm taking Liljegren over that all day.

I was putting worst case - figured WSH fans would argue that one so I let them have it to prove the point that its still not really close
LeafsFanForSomeReason a aimé ceci.
25 sep à 20 h 49
#8
Leafs
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 4,555
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
I fail to see the "bad contract" Toronto gives up here. & for that matter, Washington doesn't give one up either. Your title is very misleading,

Marner overpaid like 2 mil. Oshie paid like 6 mil until he's like 40. It's apples and oranges on this one
Jamiepo a aimé ceci.
25 sep à 20 h 50
#9
Rejoint: aoû 2020
Messages: 67
Mentions "j'aime": 18
I feel like this significantly hurts the Leaf’s depth; the age difference is so large between the pieces that it can affect our competitiveness for years - more than just keeping Marner. As much as I freaking love Oshie’s game and Vrana seems awesome, losing four young roster pieces with no draft picks coming back to help us later it’s not going to work for Toronto.
25 sep à 20 h 51
#10
Rejoint: mar 2018
Messages: 5,496
Mentions "j'aime": 1,492
Quoting: leafs101
Marner overpaid like 2 mil. Oshie paid like 6 mil until he's like 40. It's apples and oranges on this one


Marner's still young and over a point per game. That contract was signed with the intention of the cap increasing. It didn't. It might not be the best contract, but it's certainly not a bad one one. Oshie is a consistent 50 point player that plays well in all 3 zones. Right now at $5.75M per year, that's definitely not a bad contract.

You might wanna check and see if those apples and oranges are rotten if you think those are "bad contracts"
25 sep à 20 h 52
#11
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 4,403
Mentions "j'aime": 1,175
yeah, that's a really easy no from toronto
leafs101 a aimé ceci.
25 sep à 20 h 53
#12
get off my lawn...
Rejoint: jui 2018
Messages: 15,676
Mentions "j'aime": 7,833
Sorry but the vrana marner comparison is just bad. Marner played less games and just flat out up more points. 5v5 and pp... and 4v4 and on the pk... probably 3on3 as well lol.

That package for marner I would probably consider. But you added Lilly mikheyev and engvall.

The idea that leafs “need” to lose cap is false. Do they need to sign petro? Is that even a smart idea?
25 sep à 20 h 53
#13
Leafs
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 4,555
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Marner's still young and over a point per game. That contract was signed with the intention of the cap increasing. It didn't. It might not be the best contract, but it's certainly not a bad one one. Oshie is a consistent 50 point player that plays well in all 3 zones. Right now at $5.75M per year, that's definitely not a bad contract.

You might wanna check and see if those apples and oranges are rotten if you think those are "bad contracts"


Oshie looks good now, just wait 2-3 years and see if you think his 5.75 is still all sunshine and rainbows

As for Marner, I agree with what you said, but you can't deny that he's getting paid above market value. A young improving superstar for sure, but 2nd highest paid winger in the league is a bit much. His comparable contract would have been Rantanen's 9.25
25 sep à 20 h 54
#14
Stars and Bolts fan
Rejoint: oct 2017
Messages: 15,132
Mentions "j'aime": 7,275
Yeah that'll be a relatively easy no from the Leafs.
25 sep à 20 h 56
#15
Rejoint: jan 2020
Messages: 2,872
Mentions "j'aime": 1,202
Quoting: leafs101
Marner overpaid like 2 mil. Oshie paid like 6 mil until he's like 40. It's apples and oranges on this one


I think $2m is even overstating it. I'd say like 1.5ish.
25 sep à 20 h 56
#16
Rejoint: mar 2018
Messages: 5,496
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Quoting: leafs101
Oshie looks good now, just wait 2-3 years and see if you think his 5.75 is still all sunshine and rainbows

As for Marner, I agree with what you said, but you can't deny that he's getting paid above market value. A young improving superstar for sure, but 2nd highest paid winger in the league is a bit much. His comparable contract would have been Rantanen's 9.25


Rantenen signed after Marner. Can't use that as a comparable
25 sep à 20 h 57
#17
Démarrer sujet
Who adds what?
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 11,598
Mentions "j'aime": 2,146
This is a response to a Leafs trade offer of Marner plus nothing Leafs fans like for Vrana plus Orlov. Orlov is basically Muzzin. Marner is basically Vrana plus power play opportunities.

Here's the post that suggested it: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/370910

Neither team creates much cap space out of it. But there are 29 other teams they can trade with.

I think the Caps might consider a shake-up just to make a move, and to possibly add a new 1R to play with Ovechkin, but it leaves their LW depth chart a little bit short on talented guys under 30.

I'm not asking the Leafs to trade Marner for Vrana. I'm against the idea. Vrana is 95% as good at a third of the cap hit. I'm just countering with what it would take to not completely rip the Caps off.
25 sep à 21 h 01
#18
Démarrer sujet
Who adds what?
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 11,598
Mentions "j'aime": 2,146
Quoting: Jamiepo
Sorry but the vrana marner comparison is just bad. Marner played less games and just flat out up more points. 5v5 and pp... and 4v4 and on the pk... probably 3on3 as well lol.

That package for marner I would probably consider. But you added Lilly mikheyev and engvall.

The idea that leafs “need” to lose cap is false. Do they need to sign petro? Is that even a smart idea?


So you saw their 5 on 5 numbers and their cap hits and still honestly tried to argue that Marner has more trade value? Marner had two more even strength points at over three times the cap hit. Don't be ridiculous.
25 sep à 21 h 01
#19
Rejoint: jan 2020
Messages: 2,872
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Rantenen signed after Marner. Can't use that as a comparable


What does Rantanen signing after Marner have to do with it? If anything it makes it a more relevant comparable because Marner set the market and Rantanen still got paid less despite similar production.
25 sep à 21 h 03
#20
Démarrer sujet
Who adds what?
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 11,598
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
What does Rantanen signing after Marner have to do with it? If anything it makes it a more relevant comparable because Marner set the market and Rantanen still got paid less despite similar production.


Marner had two more even strength points than Vrana this year at over three times the cap hit. The cap is flat. Cap hit affects trade value. Am I speaking French?
25 sep à 21 h 04
#21
Rejoint: mar 2018
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
What does Rantanen signing after Marner have to do with it? If anything it makes it a more relevant comparable because Marner set the market and Rantanen still got paid less despite similar production.


Because you can't say "use Rantenen as a comparable" in any Marner negotiation because he was already signed. Everyone talked about from the start how Marner would set the market for other players, so the Rantenen had literally zero impact on the Marner contract.
25 sep à 21 h 12
#22
Rejoint: jan 2020
Messages: 2,872
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Quoting: Eli
Marner had two more even strength points than Vrana this year at over three times the cap hit. The cap is flat. Cap hit affects trade value. Am I speaking French?


Wtf are you even talking about? My comment had nothing to do with you or Vrana... Am I speaking French?
Eli a aimé ceci.
25 sep à 21 h 23
#23
Rejoint: jan 2020
Messages: 2,872
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Because you can't say "use Rantenen as a comparable" in any Marner negotiation because he was already signed. Everyone talked about from the start how Marner would set the market for other players, so the Rantenen had literally zero impact on the Marner contract.


Okay, but Rantanen's deal was signed after Marner's, so why isn't he getting paid what Marner is despite putting up better numbers heading into their negotiations? Because Marner is overpaid. Rantanen is a great comparable. They are from the same draft, both play wing, put up similar point totals, signed for the same term in the same offseason. Sure, you can't say "They should have based it off of the Rantanen deal", but these are two players who should have gotten similar amounts.
Eli a aimé ceci.
25 sep à 21 h 35
#24
Rejoint: mar 2018
Messages: 5,496
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Okay, but Rantanen's deal was signed after Marner's, so why isn't he getting paid what Marner is despite putting up better numbers heading into their negotiations? Because Marner is overpaid. Rantanen is a great comparable. They are from the same draft, both play wing, put up similar point totals, signed for the same term in the same offseason. Sure, you can't say "They should have based it off of the Rantanen deal", but these are two players who should have gotten similar amounts.


You're only taking into consideration point totals and think that's the reason why they're comparable? ... Marner's better defensively, he's a leader in the locker room (alternate captain), tax situation is incredibly different in Colorado than it is in Ontario. All of those lead Marner to get more. You can argue Marner is overpaid, sure. But to say that he should have signed for what Rantenen signed for is just false.
25 sep à 21 h 43
#25
Démarrer sujet
Who adds what?
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 11,598
Mentions "j'aime": 2,146
Quoting: Ryminister_27
You're only taking into consideration point totals and think that's the reason why they're comparable? ... Marner's better defensively, he's a leader in the locker room (alternate captain), tax situation is incredibly different in Colorado than it is in Ontario. All of those lead Marner to get more. You can argue Marner is overpaid, sure. But to say that he should have signed for what Rantenen signed for is just false.


The US leads the world in the CoViD rate, because our 20 million uninsured people spread it like wildfire. It might be time that we stop factoring taxation rates so heavily into the value of living somewhere, and start to acknowledge that you get what you pay for.
Jamiepo a aimé ceci.
 
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