i dont think you need to add a first to the neal deal
maybe a 2nd

Luckily for you, Ken Holland has a hard stance against trading first round picks in dumps and in general

Since Russel has only 1yr left on his deal I just can't see Detroit giving any pick to rent him. Rebuilding teams just don't rent players.

Edmonton adds a 3rd for us to take Russell or they can keep the cap hit

Deal

Detroit does not want Russell and since he’s overpaid you’d need to add a sweetner

Perfect we have an accord

Oilers add a 3rd in 2021, reason for this trade is the young defense that the wings have will be given one more year of development to make a proper impact to the league and for the team

Bad deal. Russell will have value at the deadline.

You pay out a 1st to get rid of 20-goal scorer James Neal and then spend the money on a bunch of has-beens. Is your name Peter?

If we had more cap space I'd sign Pietrangelo and Hall, but we don't

If you move Neal and Russell with nothing coming back, you DO have enough space to sign Pietrangelo or Hall, you just chose to spend it on crappy players.

You could've signed a better backup than Holtby for much less. You could've signed a better winger than Galchenyuk for much less. You could've signed a better 4C for much less. But you didn't and now all your cap space has been soaked up by mediocre players.

James Neal is on the decline and is a PP specialist. Calling him a 20 goal scorer may be a bit disingenuous considering he shot 44% higher this year. Does he repeat that unsustainable SH% or does he regress? I don’t think he will dip all the way to Calgary lows but he isn’t a sure bet 20 goal scorer anymore nor does he provide value on the PK.

He took just over 2 shots per game last year, if healthy for a full season that's 167 shots. His career SH% is 11.9%

167 x .119 = 19.873 goals

His shooting volume was actually way down in 19-20, his career average is 2.96 shots/GP, or 243 shots per 82.

243 x .119 = 28.9 goals

Calling him a 20 goal scorer is not "a bit disingenuous" because it isn't based on the 16.96 SH% he posted last year.

When was the last time Neal was healthy for a full season? You aren’t accounting for regression as he isn’t getting any younger and doesn’t skate like he use too. Your projecting stats under the context he’s getting top 6 mins and PP time (18+ mins) a game. Like I said he isn’t a shoe in that’s going to pot 20 goals but that doesn’t mean he can’t do it. He potted 12 PPG last year which is the most since 2011-2012 season. He’s averages around 4 in the past 5-6 years so that’s why I said a “bit disingenuous“ as he gets less PP time and EV time volume will decrease. He’s not a net positive EV performer and it will be be interesting to see what Edmonton’s top 6 looks like next year.

2015-16 was the last time he played 82 games. He scored 31 that year. Here are his goal scoring pace numbers for the past few years projected over 82 games, with actual goals in brackets:

2015-16: 31 (31)
2016-17: 27 (23)
2017-18: 29 (25)
2018-19: 9 (7)
2019-20: 28 (19 + 2 in 4 play-in games)

Yeah, I don't see how calling him a 20 goal scorer is in any way disingenuous. It accounts for decline. His normal pace is closer to 30 and he's actually scored at least 20 in 4 of the past 5 years (NHL deemed him to have hit 20 this year which triggered a trade condition).

What I’m saying is he hasn’t scored this level of PPG in quite awhile with an inflated SH% it points to anomaly. His EV goals the past two seasons have been 5 & 7 (respectively) but we are using data pre-Calgary to help boost his figures. Does he regress to his normal SH%? Does he get more ice time? Does he shoot more since those could be outliers like you pointed out? Does Neal’s ankle injuries linger effecting his skating? Can he play a full season? Does he play prolonged periods with McDavid again? That’s why I don’t overwhelmingly buy into a 20 goal season next year as a given or expectation

His ES shot metrics / expected goals looked great this year, I think a lot of the issue was simply puck luck. He was overly lucky on the PP and overly unlucky at ES, I think that will even out somewhat going forward.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=ev&stdoi=std&rate=r&v=p&playerid=8471707