The Sens have 9 picks in the top 71. I'll go over realistic targets around each pick and what I think they should do, let me know what you guys think! This is assuming no trades of course. For starters I think these 9 should include 4-5 forwards, 3-4 defensemen, and a goalie. Adding another decent young goalie prospect just makes sense with this many picks, and I think a little more emphasis should be placed on defense prospects here because I believe our forward pipeline is certainly more promising. Outside the big 3 of Brannstrom, Thomson, and JBD, we don't have many noticeable D prospects from the last 3 drafts (Jaros, Wolanin, and Lajoie are all at least 22) so it'll be nice to add some younger depth there, particularly outside the first because we can afford to give high upside projects 3-5 years to develop. As all our picks are now established except for the Dalllas 2nd (but that'll only move max one spot) I figured now would be a good time to post this. Biggest long term holes in my opinion: 1C, 1RW, 2LD, 1G. We have at least 1 or 2 prospects/players that can potentially fill in every other top 9 F/top 4 D role.
Selection #3:
- Quinton Byfield. Like, if it's not Byfield it's Stutzle because the Kings took him, but the Kings apparently like Stutzle and we really like Byfield and need that big, dynamic, smooth skating 1C. He's the only option here.
Selection #5:
- Lucas Raymond. He's a star RW who would solidify our top 6. He's going to be a bona fide top line player, pushing Batherson down to line 2 where he can thrive. A line of Tkachuk-Byfield-Raymond looks positively lethal (especially if Byfield learns to use his body more and can punish guys physically like Tkachuk does). I think Raymond's skill set in particular really complements Tkachuk, Chucky's willing to go to the dirty areas and has a nose for the net, so giving him a talented playmaker could turn him into the next Jamie Benn.
- Alex Holtz. If Raymond goes at 4 to Detroit (very possible), I'd say the second best option is likely his Terror Twin counterpart Holtz. Adding a top 6 sniper with the best shot in the draft is never a bad play, and he can fill that 1RW role we need. Also provides some diversity to our top 6. While Raymond would be a great complement to Tkachuk, I think Holtz could be equally lethal on either line, meaning we either overload the top line with scoring threats, or we could split them up for easier line matchups and more diversity in the top 6.
- Marco Rossi. If we wanted a guy who's probably a lock to be a 2C, he's uber talented and all but I just don't think he's the best fit for Ottawa given we have Brown+Norris and will get Byfield or Stutzle. Not sure why everyone thinks he's the guy we should take at 5. He's good, but we need a 1RW more and Raymond is better regardless imo
Selection #28: I think this is where we should target a guy with the potential to be our 2LD.
- William Wallinder. Big left shot D, talented with the puck and a good skater. Played mostly Junior in Sweden this year, and his big club is 2nd tier, not SHL, but that's fine. We can afford to give him 2-3 years to develop. His comparable is Hedman, and while I doubt he'll be THAT good, having a guy who plays that style would be great. And Swedish defensemen are always fantastic, they must feed them something different up there (Hedman, Karlsson, Klingberg, Lidstrom, Salming, Dahlin, etc.).
- Ryan O'Rourke. Another big guy, he plays with an edge and was the captain of the Soo, which is great for a 17yo. Decent at moving the puck, good hockey sense, plays well in his own end. With a few years seasoning he should be a good, 2-way 2LD. Could work on skating and doesn't produce a ton of offense but he's reliable at both ends of the rink so there's a strong base to work with.
- J.J. Peterka. Fast, good shot, works hard, energetic, can play up or down the lineup and on both special teams if needed. What's not to love? Perfect 3RW imo. If we don't go with a LD here and Peterka is available he's the best bet for a forward I reckon
- Helge Grans. If Schneider is gone he's the next best RHD imo, talented puck-mover who can run a PP, big guy, played well in the SHL. Probably three or four years away but he has higher potential than Barron imo and we can afford to wait. Might be a bit of a stretch at 21, a lot of people have him slipping to the next round, I just think he's got higher potential than Barron from what I've read, feel free to correct me if I'm off-base here. Pretty similar overall to Wallinder, just on the right side instead. Would add to our riches at RD, which is a very nice strength to have.
Selection #33:
- Jake Neighbours. I really like this guy, he's a physical, 2-way playmaker with good hands and work ethic. The knock on him is his skating, which isn't fantastic but apart from that it sounds like he's the complete package. He probably won't be a top line player but he would look great on 3LW.
- Tyson Foerster. Doesn't do puck retrieval and isn't the best skater but when he gets the puck he puts it in the net. There's something to be said for having that innate skill, if he has the desire the other stuff can be taught, but the ability to just get the puck and score is one that you have to just have naturally. He could be worth a shot here.
Selection #52:
- Will Cuylle. Strong kid, big, good shot. Regressed a bit this year, could be bad luck, might be worth taking a flier on. If it's an anomaly he could be a very good power forward.
- Yan Kuznetsov. He moves the puck well but he's not great offensively, or at skating. If he works on his defensive game and keeping things simple, he could be a Dillon type of guy on the 3rd pair.
- Joni Jurmo. Great speed and offensive instincts, and he's big too. Not so great in his own end but hopefully that'll develop later. People have him going everywhere from late 1st to late 3rd. If he's available here he's a potential steal worth taking a chance on.
Selection #59, #61/62, and #64: Combining because they're so close.
- Joel Blomqvist. My goalie of choice for this draft. Nico Daws is widely regarded as the #2 goalie after Askarov, then Calle Clang, Blomqvist, Jan Bednar, or Drew Commesso are next depending on who you ask. I'm personally a fan of the Finn, he's got good positioning, rebound control, and athleticism which is good enough for me. It's good that he's a European prospect, he can develop in the Liiga rather than needing to come over to the AHL, which is rather crowded with Daccord and Gustavsson there now, Mandolese likely knocking on the door but relegated to the ECHL this year, and Sogaard pushing for a spot after a final year in the WHL, though likely being bumped to the ECHL as well for his first pro season. So yeah, a goalie we can allow to develop in Finland for 3 or 4 years until the rest of our pipeline sorts itself out (who is for real and who is not, who is tradebait and who is worth keeping around) would be good to add. I really think he's gonna be a player, and it gives our goaltending ridiculous depth, which is never a bad thing (ask Columbus, they lost Bob and still have Merzlikins+Korpisalo who were amazing, Kivlenieks stepped in and played well, Tarasov is one of the best goalie prospects in the league, and they have Vehvilainen as well lol).
- Mitch Miller. Mobile, puck-moving defensemen. Weak shot. Good outlet pass and decision making ability. He certainly has the offensive skill, but the rest of his game needs a bit of work. He's going to UND and they were very good this year, should help him develop (long-term project).
- Luke Tuch. Inconsistent, but when he's on he's uber-competitive, feisty, and physical. Good skating, good shot. He's either in the middle of everything or he's on the periphery. If he can commit to being the guy in the middle of everything every night he'll be one helluva bottom six energy guy.
- Luke Evangelista. Smart, versatile guy who works hard. Can play both wings. Will likely get more opportunity on London now that he's older. Much improved from his rookie year, could be primed for a breakout.
- Theo Niederbach. Missed a year of development, but he's super smart, skilled, and hard working. Good 2-way guy. I feel like he'd be ranked higher if he hadn't missed all of 18-19, he could turn out to be a steal.
Selection #71:
- Brett Berard. Young (one week older than draft cutoff), small guy who plays aggressive. Quick to get to the puck and goes to all the dirty areas. Physical wear and tear of this playstyle a factor to consider. Potential good energy guy.
- Daniel Torgersson. NHL frame, good skating, shot, decision making. Lacks creativity, doesn't always use his size. This is the Sens 9th pick so he might be worth a flier.
- Dylan Peterson. Big, playmaking centre stalled in development. Going to Boston U. Needs 4 or 5 years of development. Could pay off as a late-blooming power forward.
So overall, here is my ideal, realistic draft: Byfield (3), Raymond (5), Wallinder (28), Neighbours (33), Jurmo (52), Evangelista/Niederbach (59), Blomqvist (61/62), Miller (64), Peterson (71).
Getting a future 1C, 1RW, 2LD, and 3LW with the first 4 picks would be fantastic. Jurmo, Miller, and Peterson have high upside for their likely draft position so they're worth the risk given we have so many picks. Our first few are safe, the next ones we can afford to wait and see on a couple. If one of them hits big time it'll be worth it. Evangelista should be solid, he's in a good system, he'll come out of there playing the right way, or we get Niederbach, who I think is ranked lower due to injury and has higher potential than anyone else (Aho-esque steal potentially). I've already talked about how much I like Blomqvist lol
What do you think of my picks? What about the other targets I brought up? Anyone else realistic I missed? Lmk! Lines are young guys/prospects only, team could look like this in a few years. Looks good to me! High-end depth down the middle and in net will be useful if most of these guys come close to their potential, it gives us a much-desired position of strength to trade from if necessary to fill holes. Buncha goalies, several RD and a revamped LD pipeline thanks to this draft, plus 4 or 5 forwards at each position that could be top 9 guys.
With how much industry consensus projects Byfield as potentially the best player out of this draft, I really, really struggle with the idea of Los Angeles passing him up. I put a lot of stock in BPA-mentality and trust the math that suggests it's easier for centers to convert to wing than it is for wingers to convert to centers.
First question primarily, if Ottawa goes Stutzle-Raymond at #3 and #5, how much do the draft plans change, if at all?
Second, should the Senators genuinely look at moving up from #3 to #2, and at what cost?
With how much industry consensus projects Byfield as potentially the best player out of this draft, I really, really struggle with the idea of Los Angeles passing him up. I put a lot of stock in BPA-mentality and trust the math that suggests it's easier for centers to convert to wing than it is for wingers to convert to centers.
First question primarily, if Ottawa goes Stutzle-Raymond at #3 and #5, how much do the draft plans change, if at all?
Second, should the Senators genuinely look at moving up from #3 to #2, and at what cost?
i prefer Byfield because he fills 1C with no issues but both players will be very elite imo. I struggle to see Stutzle as a centre personally
i prefer Byfield because he fills 1C with no issues but both players will be very elite imo. I struggle to see Stutzle as a centre personally
That's my question though: if the target really is Byfield because of his projection, how much should the Sens look at paying to move up? I highly doubt the Kings are going to let him slide to #3 unless they're paid to do so.
That's my question though: if the target really is Byfield because of his projection, how much should the Sens look at paying to move up? I highly doubt the Kings are going to let him slide to #3 unless they're paid to do so.
ill give up Isles pick maximum. But ill try with a B prospect and a 2nd
With how much industry consensus projects Byfield as potentially the best player out of this draft, I really, really struggle with the idea of Los Angeles passing him up. I put a lot of stock in BPA-mentality and trust the math that suggests it's easier for centers to convert to wing than it is for wingers to convert to centers.
First question primarily, if Ottawa goes Stutzle-Raymond at #3 and #5, how much do the draft plans change, if at all?
Second, should the Senators genuinely look at moving up from #3 to #2, and at what cost?
Stutzle’s natural position is centre, and he plays that internationally. He only plays LW in Germany to get more ice time in that pro league, I think he’ll be fine at C in the NHL. LA has reported interest in Stutzle because he’s more of a complete package in terms of speed and skill (more skilled than Byfield rn) and NHL readiness due to already having pro experience. He’s also a fantastic playmaker, meaning Holtz at 5 (if Raymond goes at 4) isn’t as bad as you might think. I also think LA is set at C so they might take Stutzle to play LW, we would take him to play C. The main difference is Stutzle will make an impact immediately, Byfield needs 1 year of development and will likely take a few years after that to reach his peak (which might be best player in the draft, but that would be a hindsight view, he’ll be less impactful over the first few years than Laf or Stutzle).
So basically if we end up with Stutzle+Raymond or Stutzle+Holtz that’s not ideal, but it still works well, and probably wouldn’t change our draft plan all that much.
I don’t think we should move up to #2 if it costs more than a 2nd. We’ll be getting a high level talent regardless, and there’s a good chance we get the guy we want anyway. It’s not worth giving a whole lot considering they’re both fantastic players
That's my question though: if the target really is Byfield because of his projection, how much should the Sens look at paying to move up? I highly doubt the Kings are going to let him slide to #3 unless they're paid to do so.
If Ottawa goes Stutzle-Raymond due to Byfield being drafted by L.A, the plan will be to work on Brown-Norris-White as 1-2-3C. It's either that or we target a potential #1 C via trade. As @Alfie11 has stated, we have so many picks/prospects Ottawa could use to poach young players from other teams due to them not being able to afford. The top 2 lines becomes Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson/Stutzle-Brown-Raymond (hopefully). I still think Ottawa finishes in bottom 10 next year. Lambos/Clarke will be a much needed on the blueline if Ottawa wins a top 3. To answer your question: it's a win-win regardless for both L.A. and Ottawa.
If Byfield falls into Ottawa's hands, Brown is shifted to the wing or moved for a positional need.
I agree wholeheartedly about 3+5, though if Raymond goes at 4, Drysdale is still my number two choice.
I like guys you mentioned like Wallinder or O'Rourke, but it wouldn't shock me to see Ottawa chase another forward there. They supposedly love Foerster, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them pass on a D and bet one whichever Blueliner the like most (Grans for me) is still there 5 spots later at 33rd. There are great D options for Ottawa to load up on in round 2 though.
I wouldn't look at a goalie in round two given they just took Søgaard last year, but Blomqvist and Daws could be options from the 3rd round on.
Also Dylan Peterson will be taken by the Ottawa Senators. He checks so many of the boxes for Ottawa it's uncanny. I'm like 80% sure he's Pierre Dorion's Be A Pro character lol.
If Ottawa goes Stutzle-Raymond due to Byfield being drafted by L.A, the plan will be to work on Brown-Norris-White as 1-2-3C. It's either that or we target a potential #1 C via trade. As @Alfie11 has stated, we have so many picks/prospects Ottawa could use to poach young players from other teams due to them not being able to afford. The top 2 lines becomes Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson/Stutzle-Brown-Raymond (hopefully). I still think Ottawa finishes in bottom 10 next year. Lambos/Clarke will be a much needed on the blueline if Ottawa wins a top 3. To answer your question: it's a win-win regardless for both L.A. and Ottawa.
If Byfield falls into Ottawa's hands, Brown is shifted to the wing or moved for a positional need.
I'm glad you saw this, I forgot to tag you. I should probably write down all the Sens fans that frequent this forum for posts like this haha. I agree with that projection for next year, there should be plenty of good D available early in the draft, especially if we get a lottery pick. I really hope that poaching is something Dorion decides to do, all these picks are fantastic but good young NHL players are better lol (Zadorov looks like he'll cost a 2nd for example, I'd be open to that).
Quoting: Claesson4Norris
I agree wholeheartedly about 3+5, though if Raymond goes at 4, Drysdale is still my number two choice.
I like guys you mentioned like Wallinder or O'Rourke, but it wouldn't shock me to see Ottawa chase another forward there. They supposedly love Foerster, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them pass on a D and bet one whichever Blueliner the like most (Grans for me) is still there 5 spots later at 33rd. There are great D options for Ottawa to load up on in round 2 though.
I wouldn't look at a goalie in round two given they just took Søgaard last year, but Blomqvist and Daws could be options from the 3rd round on.
Also Dylan Peterson will be taken by the Ottawa Senators. He checks so many of the boxes for Ottawa it's uncanny. I'm like 80% sure he's Pierre Dorion's Be A Pro character lol.
haha yeah Peterson looks like the perfect fit for Ottawa, I just hope he goes in the late 2nd/early 3rd, I wouldn't want to use the CBJ 2nd or higher on him. My reasoning for another goalie is that it's good to get one per draft, he can develop abroad instead of clogging up the AHL, and 9 picks is essentially half a roster, and half a roster would include a goalie. Plus you can never have too many goalies, everybody needs them so at worst they're trade bait. If we take Blomqvist in the 3rd that's fine, but I think we have to take one of Blomqvist/Clang/Bednar so they develop in European pro leagues for the next 3 years or so (Gus+Daccord are AHL rn, Mandolese+Sogaard will be replacing them soon). Aside from the guys I already mentioned from your list, I like Mysak, Nybeck, Barron, and Niemela too, wouldn't mind them at all. Round 2 has a bunch of high potential D. Should be a fun draft, less than 3 weeks to go!
The only draft pick I wouldnt be happy with at the point you listed them is Neighbours.
Other than that, I would gladly take the players you took
Interesting, what are your thoughts on Neighbours? From what I've heard it sounds like he works hard and can play an effective physical 2-way game. Reminds me a lot of Stone, but probably a lower offensive ceiling. Lower potential for stardom than other guys we could take there, but he seems like a sure bet to at least make the NHL as a defensively responsible depth player, which has value as well. Maybe if he was available later in the draft?
I'd be ok with Raymond at 5. I'm just not totally sold on him. If Raymond is taken at 4, Perfetti is also another option. Rossi is great, but at 5 my order of preference would be Drysdale, Perfetti, Raymond or Quinn (only because I don't see Dorion trading all the way down to 10-14 with the NYI pick).
My preference at 3 would be Stutzle. Stutzle can definitely be a centre. Both guys will take time to develop, so there's no negative to letting Stutzle develop in the AHL as a centreman for the first year. Byfield needs to be motivated by the coach, whereas Stutzle just has a motor that doesn't stop and he's extremely competitive. His skill level is there with Byfield. The main difference is 3 inches in height.
With the NYI pick, I'm really hoping Dorion will move up with that pick. If he can get all the way to the 10-14 range, then I'd love them to get Jack Quinn. If not, and he can get to the 19-22 range, then I'd like them to take a chance on Hendrix Lapierre.
As for the 33 pick, Foerster, O'Rourke or Neighbors would all be great choices imo.
The rest of the picks, I haven't followed as closely, so I'm not going to comment on those ones.
I like it a lot; I think you've touched on many of the names I'd like to see come up in Dorion's discussions. Namely, if we can walk out of this draft with Byfield and Raymond, Dorion's set this team up for immense success.
I'm not a huge fan of some of the D at the tail end of the 1st; I think it's hard to get a great reading on the blueliners because it's such a front heavy draft and so I haven't been able to pick very many favourites amongst guys akin to Wallinder, O'Rourke and Grans. I can see what's to like but then I see someone like Lapierre and it's just no contest to me. If there's a world in which he can be had, I would throw it all away for him. That high risk, high reward kind of guy (which is simultaneously the complete opposite of what Lapierre offers since he's got an immensely high floor) we could acquire by drafting Hendrix with the Isles pick (and likely a trade up) would satisfy a lot of the needs we have in our prospect pool. We need some star quality so we need to start swinging for the fences. I think D can work itself out in the later rounds. Look at a guy like Guenette, for example, or how we can hit on guys like Jaros, Lajoie and Wolanin in the depth of the draft.
I like Foerster. I'm a fan. I will back you on that one. I get though that he's a hot topic and that he divides a lot of people. He seems like the Kaliyev of this year where people just inexplicably don't like him cause he scores goals really well but has deficiencies elsewhere, but hey, Kaliyev is awesome and that's exactly who the Sens could use in their system. Sign me up.
Beyond that, I'm most familiar with Evangelista, who I also really like. Others I've liked are Colangelo, Smilanic, Farrell, Robins, and Gushchin.
I think the only thing that throws a wrench into all of this is if Detroit picks Raymond. I don't think Dorion picks Holtz or Rossi at 5 if Raymond is off the board. That may be who you have there (I have Perfetti next), but it's definitely not who Dorion has. We all know it deep down. We all can deny it, we all can pretend he doesn't, and we call can come up with reasons why he'll have anybody else, but we all know it's Sanderson that's his likely backup plan to Raymond. And sure enough, it's who absolutely everybody with sources is reporting too. I might be in the minority but I don't think it's a bad idea to go that way. We just gotta hope that we get Raymond though, because I think that while Sanderson is a remarkable pick and would set our D core up for the rest of eternity and people will be in awe of it for ages, Raymond is just far and away the better pick.
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