You know our first is #1 overall right

Yeah, I heard about that. https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/NHL_2018.html

That's cool. The Caps have a better chance of repeating if they just keep Kuznetsov, but Chytil and Lafreniere would keep them in the playoffs longer, and avoid a messy rebuild.

I linked my earlier post of the Rangers' side of this, which I think is an instant contender, but that's just because a top line of Panarin, Kuznetsov, and Kravtsov would be filthy, a center depth chart of Kuznetsov, Zibanejad, Eller, Strome would stand up to any team in the league, and moving 12M of cap baggage off the blue line lets them improve the blue line right away. It makes sense that you're angry if you haven't seen the Rangers' side of this. I built it just out of curiosity, but I think it's win-win. Kuznetsov was scouted as a potential #1 pick but the rumor was he'd never come to play in North America. Washington took a chance with a late 1st. He panned out and led the playoffs in points and assists in 2018. He and Eller each had overtime goals. Eller had the Cup-winning goal against Vegas, and led a fantastic third line with Burakovsky and Connolly, whom he helped develop into the top-six guys they are today. He speaks Swedish and might be a good mentor for Kakko.

But, yeah, Lafreniere is gonna be awesome, too. I don't know which side wins this. Depends who wants the Cup more.

edit: Rangers' side: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1909129

earlier link was playoff stats from 2018. Kuznetsov has led the Caps in points through a couple regular seasons and their championship run. Ovechkin, Carlson, and Backstrom played well, too. They just didn't get as many points as Kuznetsov. Watch him play some time. He's fun.

You don't trade a franchise piece for aging players.

Scouting is an inexact art. How's Lias Andersson developing?

edit: you also don't trade a franchise center within the division, two years after he leads you to a championship. I might be crazy, but I'm having fun here, okay?

Jesus Christ, are you trolling?

No. I'm brilliant!

Montour is worth more than just Kempny.

I agree. Especially to a team that didn't just hypothetically take on 12M of blue line cap baggage and has space to actually sign him!

edit: here's the thread where Buffalo fans talked me down from Kempny for Miller to Kempny for Montour, before I posted this wild Rangers idea and wound up without room for a blue liner, at all. https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/362988?post_id=1738658

The Hawks don’t need Panik, and they don’t have the cap space to spend on something they don’t need.

WSH wins this in a lopsided fashion, and there's no way NYR would ever think of making this deal. No matter how you try to justify it, there's zero incentive for them to make this trade.

Conventional wisdom says build slow, don't rush, think long term. By the time that gets the Rangers anywhere, Panarin, Kreider, and Trouba will have gray hair and New Jersey will have a dynasty. NYR has never taken a slow-build approach and I'm not betting they start right now. So what's the counter-offer?

and, seriously, if you want to say the Rangers won't do it, don't just go by my rose-colored vision of the Caps somehow lowballing Hall to keep limping into the playoffs after gutting their center corps. Look at how good this trade makes the Rangers: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/363054?post_id=1738903

Makes the rangers better, but they don't have to trade #1 to get better. It's a trade that makes them considerably older. How many good years does Kuznetsov have left compared to Chytil or Lafreniere? Chytil, Kakko, Kravtsov, Lindgren, Fox, DeAngelo, and Shesterkin are very close together in terms of development, and there's no reason to separate a really good young core they're beginning to grow.

It makes them a little older, but ready right now. And it doesn't even make them old. Everyone would be 29 or younger except Eller.

I would skip Taylor Hall, too expensive. Vrana is a good 2LW and with Alexis, we'd have a log jam all of a sudden at LW. Keep the Hall cap space for Vrana, Ovi, Sammy and a real top pair Dman or middle 6 C.

edited because I was flippant:

Just win whenever the kids feel like it. Because they're nice kids and they're all about the same age. I'm sure that's exactly what MSG is telling the team.

Are you giving Smith and Trouba positive value? I'm concerned about their contracts after they both went -12 without a lot of points last year. If Trouba is turning into just a 20 point defenseman the trade for Jensen who gets a little less than that at a third of the price and is better on defense is a huge win for NYR. With Deangelo and Fox passing Trouba on the depth chart, giving Trouba away at any price to a team good enough he'll waive his NMC is a win.

And in answer to your question: Kuznetsov has five years left on his current contract, and has been a 70-90 point phenom for a few years now. So the Rangers get five excellent years of someone about as good as Panarin, about as fast, but more slippery and creative, less of a power forward.

How many good years do Chytil and Lafreniere have in the NHL? So far, none.

You dove right into the deep end. Didn't even wade in and test the water first.

From 1995 to 2000, the 1st overall picks were Bryan Berard, Chris Phillips, Joe Thornton, Vincent Lecavalier, Patrik Stefan, and Rick DiPietro. That's two terrific first line centers, one of whom has won a championship, two guys who each had three above average seasons, one guy who was average, and one guy who was so bad his team gave up and moved to Canada.

Expected value calculations are complicated, so let's keep this simple: would you rather have a one in six chance of getting a top line center who can win a championship, or get a top line center who just won a championship?

Also, which is an easier contract to move: an eight million dollar offensive defenseman with only one season over 33 points, and it wasn't last year, and he's got term remaining, and he's got an NMC, or Milan Lucic? Is there some chance Trouba bounces back? Sure. There's also some chance Thornton gets a title. But what do you think is gonna happen?

That is a very odd date range you chose there in an attempt to make your point appear valid.

The last ten first overall picks don't have any Cups yet. But I'm sure they're coming.

Ovechkin, Crosby, and Kane are beasts. But if you just bought a powerball ticket, and someone offered to trade you a small house for it, and pay off your student loans, are you gonna look up how big the jackpot is?

eta: In this Millennium, Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, and Stamkos are the four 1OA picks who have led a team to a Cup. The other 16 didn't. So there's a 20% chance of getting someone as good as Kuznetsov. Three different teams have two of those guys and aren't winning anything this year. Got excuses?

So you admit that you left out a bunch of homerun #1 picks and a few grand-slam #1 picks just to make your point appear valid. Yeah, we all saw that.

Looking at the group of top picks from this millennium, half are kinda weak, so far. A quarter are even with Kuznetsov. A quarter are better than him.

Kuznetsov's career is half done, but most superstars don't slow down as quickly as average players, because elite skill is more about knowledge and creativity than just strength. Kuznetsov's skating, passing, and vision are on an entirely separate level from most good NHL players. He's going to last.

I think dumping the new Wade Redden, plus half the career of someone better than the average of what you get this millennium with a first overall pick is worth a first overall pick.

A late 1st and another $4M cap dump are worth Chytil.

Jensen and Eller are worth about a 3rd and a 2nd, and the deal could be further sweetened, but NYR is already a bit ahead on paper, even if the pick has the potential to hit, allowing WSH to end up winning the trade in maybe 25% of scenarios.

From what I see on this site, any player that Botterill obtained is trash.
So they all tend to devalue Miller and Montour.
Unfortunately, the Buffalo fan base rarely watches Sabres games unless the crowd starts to make noise then they interrupt their conversations.
Needless to say, I doubt more than 1% of Buffalo hockey fans watched a minute of playoff hockey this year.
(I am sorry to say, I missed all of the Caps games as well)
They do not view facts nor on ice performance.
They form their beliefs from reading our press who I wonder if they even watch hockey.
(I was at a prospect challenge two years ago and starting chatting with the local press and asked them, who has been invisible? No one answered, so I answered myself, "Mittelstadt!". Then they all shook their heads in agreement.)
Most of them think Krueger is the second coming of Scotty Bowman.
Unfortunately, hiring Krueger was a huge mistake as eight players had career worse years Miller, Montour, Vesey, Rodrigues, Sheary, Hutton, Okposo and of course Skinner.
The team did more poorly than last year even after adding Miller, Jokiharju, Johansson, Vesey and Montour for an entire season.

So using other AGM as a source of value of Buffalo's defense would only lead to failure.
Montour had the best +/-, 5 on 5 SV% and second best PDO of all skaters, and ONLY Ristolainen had a higher TOI/gm, yet as you saw, most thought Miller was better.
In addition, Montour played off wing about 65% of the time.
Let me add:
Bob Murray, George McPhee and Jason Botterill all think Montour is better than Miller as he was traded for a 2nd and Montour for a first.
I do not know the value of Kempný, but it is less than Montour, closer to Miller.
I am a big home town hero worshiper and most likely over value my players, so I avoid making teams that have multiple trades.
But this I know, Montour has tons more value than Miller.
In closing, I know you know players better than I, but this is my belief supported by the facts.

So there is my rant of the day.
Stay tuned tomorrow for another one.