Quoting: leafs101
Maybe. But my point is that you're already getting a high end prospect (a center imo, byfield), then picking at #5, OTT still likely will take a forward. So, instead of gamble on another prospect, why not grab a superstar young forward guaranteed? OTT doesn't really need cap space yet, leafs do. I think it benefits both teams. You're hoping, drafting a forward at #5, that he'll develop to be a 94 point winger, but it's not likely. Win win imo
I think there are definitely players that have the upside of a Marner level player available at 5, but even if not, I'm still comfortable taking that risk and bet on themselves. Even if that pick isn't necessarily the better player, I'll take my chances with a player that's 5-6 years younger and with way more control.
First off, with regards to Marner, Leaf fans just take it at face value that because Marner is a 90 point player in Toronto, that means he's automatically a 90 point guy wherever he goes. If you take a playmaker like that, and remove all the elite finishing ability surrounding him, his point totals will drop significantly. If his production drops even to him being a 70 point guy, the Sens immediately look like idiots while the Leafs now have a young superstar on an ELC.
There's also the matter of that contract, and that the Sens shouldn't be willing to help the Leafs avoid their cap crisis unless it's slam dunk value for them, which this is not. And the contract itself, while the Sens are paying less value than the cap hit, the bonus structure of that deal runs completely counter to the way the owner conducts business.
Ultimately, while on an objective level, I don't think the value is terrible for Ottawa per se, I think there are way more scenarios where the Sens end up looking like idiots than geniuses. Whether he gets here and underperforms, or he walks after 5 years, or the player at 5th goes on to be as good or better and Ottawa could have had him. If I'm running the team, Its much harder to criticize drafting 5th overall and it being the wrong decision ultimately, than it would be to make a move like this and be wrong.