SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Armchair-GM

a few scenarios

Créé par: A_K
Équipe: 2020-21 Blues de St-Louis
Date de création initiale: 30 juill. 2020
Publié: 31 juill. 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
The Petro situation is all there really is to talk about with the Blues this offseason. The way I see it, there are a few scenarios that could play out...

1. What if Petro isn't interested in the final offer from STL?
I give this scenario about 70% odds. It's the only way to explain why GMDA extended Faulk so quickly - if he knew that the two sides would never reach a middle ground. If Petro is out of the picture, it would allow STL to work on a long-term extension for Dunn and also provide some much-needed flexibility for the next contracts - Schwartz, Thomas, Binnington, and eventually Parayko - although the team would lose a huge piece on the back-end and might struggle to replace him for a long time.

2. What if STL can move out the cap so they keep Petro?
20% chance that this is the outcome IMO. Maybe they ask Steen to waive and send a 1st round pick (22-31 range) with him to a team that sends back a pick in the 50-60 range. Or maybe they work out a deal that sends a good young player like Sanford/Blais/Kyrou with Steen or Bozak for a decent return. There are plenty of options, but probably none that could be done in a single trade. With multiple moves required and few teams with the cap flexibility and interest, I think this scenario will be the most difficult to pull off.

3. What if Steen retires?
If GMDA has known that Steen is hanging up the skates, he has been operating with an extra $5.75m in cap room that would really come in handy if Petro and STL can come to terms. Basically, the Blues would only have to move one of Bozak or Allen to open the room to sign Petro and bridge Dunn. I give this scenario < 10% probability because I don't think Steen is done.

Now, there are some moves I see in some armchairs that I really don't see happening...

- I don't think they'll trade Dunn or lose him to an OS - he has become our best LHD and still has room to grow into a bigger role. Without arb. rights and his suppressed stat lines (thanks to playing 17 min per night) I think both sides will be able to work out a friendly 2-yr bridge.

- I don't think they'll trade Parayko... ever. The FO absolutely loves him, probably more than Pietrangelo if it came down to it.

- I don't think they'll pay to move Bozak or Allen. I would imagine their value is pretty close to zero, but not negative. If they retain a million on either of them, I think they're right in line with other options that teams would have (UFA, etc.). It's worth mentioning that the Blues have been a 'tandem' goalie team for a while now so even with Binnington stepping into a no.1 role, I'm not sure if they'd trade Allen and trust an unproven/cheap backup.

What do you see happening? What is the best, realistic path forward? I mocked up what it looks like if Steen retires below.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
1900 000 $
23 000 000 $
1800 000 $
1800 000 $
1800 000 $
1800 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
79 027 000 $
Transactions
1.
STL
    retirement
    2.
    STL
    1. Choix de 4e ronde en 2020 (BUF)
    BUF
    1. Bozak, Tyler (1 000 000 $ retained)
    3.
    STL
    1. Choix de 6e ronde en 2021 (NJD)
    Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
    Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
    2020
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de BUF
    Logo de STL
    Logo de CAR
    2021
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de NJD
    2022
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    Logo de STL
    TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
    2281 500 000 $71 673 348 $306 349 $425 000 $9 826 652 $
    Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    5 350 000 $5 350 000 $
    AG
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
    C, AG
    NTC
    UFA - 8
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    3 750 000 $3 750 000 $
    AD
    NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    1 875 000 $1 875 000 $
    C
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    4 000 000 $4 000 000 $
    AD, AG
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    894 166 $894 166 $ (Bonis de performance425 000 $$425K)
    C, AD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    758 333 $758 333 $
    AD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    900 000 $900 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
    AD, C
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    1 475 000 $1 475 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 1
    Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
    DG/DD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    9 027 000 $9 027 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 7
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    4 400 000 $4 400 000 $
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    4 350 000 $4 350 000 $
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    3 275 000 $3 275 000 $
    DG
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
    DD
    NTC
    UFA - 7
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    787 500 $787 500 $
    DG
    UFA - 2
    Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    900 000 $900 000 $
    C, AG
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Blues de St-Louis
    1 375 000 $1 375 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 2

    Code d'intégration

    • Pour afficher cette équipe sur un autre site Web ou blog, ajoutez ce iFrame à la page appropriée
    • Personnalisez les dimensions dans le code IFrame ci-dessous pour adapter votre site de manière appropriée. Minimum recommandé: 400px.

    Texte intégré

    Cliquer pour surligner
    31 juill. 2020 à 11 h 19
    #1
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juill. 2020
    Messages: 1,018
    Mentions "j'aime": 264
    personally, i really dont think pietro is resigning, as u said " It's the only way to explain why GMDA extended Faulk so quickly - if he knew that the two sides would never reach a middle ground."
    A_K et Trickster a aimé ceci.
    31 juill. 2020 à 11 h 21
    #2
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: mai 2019
    Messages: 266
    Mentions "j'aime": 162
    Bozak No trade list probably has Buffalo on it.
    A_K et Trickster a aimé ceci.
    31 juill. 2020 à 11 h 24
    #3
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juill. 2020
    Messages: 1,018
    Mentions "j'aime": 264
    i could c Colorado trading 1 of their d-men 2 sign him
    31 juill. 2020 à 11 h 30
    #4
    Démarrer sujet
    Lets Go Blues
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juin 2016
    Messages: 6,750
    Mentions "j'aime": 4,320
    Quoting: Sabreshockey53
    Bozak No trade list probably has Buffalo on it.


    Definitely an obstacle, but if Bozak wants to play his way into a new contract, Buffalo is one of the few teams that could give him more ice time to shine. When a team asks a player to waive a NTC, it usually means they're flat-out telling the player that there is no spot for them. Not sure if I'd want to stay on a team once that card was played... could be awkward.
    dp6154 a aimé ceci.
    31 juill. 2020 à 11 h 35
    #5
    Démarrer sujet
    Lets Go Blues
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juin 2016
    Messages: 6,750
    Mentions "j'aime": 4,320
    Quoting: cgy_flame_fan
    i could c Colorado trading 1 of their d-men 2 sign him


    COL is one of the few teams that could fit Petro and also would have interest. I see PHI or CGY as players. Below them, maybe COL/DAL/WPG (although it would be ice cold for him to stay in the central) and then there are some dark horses like ANA (probably not in their plans to spend $65m bucks on a UFA but a nice destination) or VGK (would have to do a lot of cap re-arranging but have made bold moves before).
    dp6154 a aimé ceci.
    31 juill. 2020 à 11 h 39
    #6
    Lenny7
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2017
    Messages: 13,291
    Mentions "j'aime": 11,051
    1) I think this is the most likely thing-the Faulk signing blew my mind when it happened so quickly, because I don't see how they manage to re-sign Pietro. It's also late enough in the game now that I could see him wanting to take his chances in free agency to see what's out there.
    2)This Steen trade scenary makes more sense than a lot of the "It'll cost a 1st to move him!" ones that have been around today. A team moving up 20-30 places and only having to take on $3.75 mil cash makes some sense. I just don't know that there's a lot of teams out there that have the space for the $5.75 cap hit that he brings, that would also offer him what he likely wants (I'm assuming either a good climate or a team that's still a contender). I can't see him waiving to go somewhere that has no shot whatsoever (ie. the Detroit barrage from this AM).
    3)I agree that there's very little of him retiring. He's made a fair chunk of cash throughout his career, but leaving over $3 million on the table seems unlikely.

    I could see someone taking Bozak or Allen, which would free up some space though. Allen had a good year, and would be a good fill-in for a team in need of a goaltender. I don't think you get anything back for him, but I also don't think that you have to pay to get rid of him. Bozak still represents a solid 3C, but you'd likely have to retain on him.

    Honestly, I don't think losing Pietrangelo would be the worst thing for the Blues. First, Faulk didn't put up his typical numbers, but (without looking), I can't imagine he was playing the same kind of minutes that he was in Carolina. He's probably a good bounce back candidate. Secondly, the long term deals given to 30+ year old dmen haven't really looked that great recently.
    A_K a aimé ceci.
    31 juill. 2020 à 11 h 48
    #7
    Démarrer sujet
    Lets Go Blues
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juin 2016
    Messages: 6,750
    Mentions "j'aime": 4,320
    Quoting: Lenny7
    1) I think this is the most likely thing-the Faulk signing blew my mind when it happened so quickly, because I don't see how they manage to re-sign Pietro. It's also late enough in the game now that I could see him wanting to take his chances in free agency to see what's out there.
    2)This Steen trade scenary makes more sense than a lot of the "It'll cost a 1st to move him!" ones that have been around today. A team moving up 20-30 places and only having to take on $3.75 mil cash makes some sense. I just don't know that there's a lot of teams out there that have the space for the $5.75 cap hit that he brings, that would also offer him what he likely wants (I'm assuming either a good climate or a team that's still a contender). I can't see him waiving to go somewhere that has no shot whatsoever (ie. the Detroit barrage from this AM).
    3)I agree that there's very little of him retiring. He's made a fair chunk of cash throughout his career, but leaving over $3 million on the table seems unlikely.

    I could see someone taking Bozak or Allen, which would free up some space though. Allen had a good year, and would be a good fill-in for a team in need of a goaltender. I don't think you get anything back for him, but I also don't think that you have to pay to get rid of him. Bozak still represents a solid 3C, but you'd likely have to retain on him.

    Honestly, I don't think losing Pietrangelo would be the worst thing for the Blues. First, Faulk didn't put up his typical numbers, but (without looking), I can't imagine he was playing the same kind of minutes that he was in Carolina. He's probably a good bounce back candidate. Secondly, the long term deals given to 30+ year old dmen haven't really looked that great recently.


    Thanks, this is good feedback. Faulk has said himself that it's been a tough adjustment to have Petro and Parayko above him on the depth chart after being the go-to guy for a long time in CAR. I don't think he'll ever come close to replacing Pietrangelo but he can definitely be more useful than he has been for STL so far. I def see the upside of Petro leaving. I think the team will be fine regardless of which direction it goes - as long as they don't move Dunn/Parayko/Schwartz just to have Petro at age 31-38 for 9+ mil. Should be interesting. Any thoughts on where Pietrangelo might end up if not STL?
    31 juill. 2020 à 11 h 56
    #8
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: avr. 2017
    Messages: 1,769
    Mentions "j'aime": 491
    I really think that they move Bozak + Allen, sign Petro to an 8 year deal with lower AAV than 9, bridge Dunn, and buyout Steen. Petro and GMDA have both said they are trying to get a deal done.
    mokumboi a aimé ceci.
    31 juill. 2020 à 12 h 6
    #9
    Lenny7
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2017
    Messages: 13,291
    Mentions "j'aime": 11,051
    Quoting: A_K
    Thanks, this is good feedback. Faulk has said himself that it's been a tough adjustment to have Petro and Parayko above him on the depth chart after being the go-to guy for a long time in CAR. I don't think he'll ever come close to replacing Pietrangelo but he can definitely be more useful than he has been for STL so far. I def see the upside of Petro leaving. I think the team will be fine regardless of which direction it goes - as long as they don't move Dunn/Parayko/Schwartz just to have Petro at age 31-38 for 9+ mil. Should be interesting. Any thoughts on where Pietrangelo might end up if not STL?


    Biased Ducks fan-COME ON DOWN TO ANAHEIM OLD BOYYYYY!

    I don't think that happens though. They don't have the cap space. I could see them trying to move Rico or Silfverberg, but it's rare to see a trade right before a signing. A small part of me thinks that Winnipeg might take a run at him, though I think that handcuffs them long-term. Toronto would make sense, but they'd have to shed some contracts. Calgary maybe? They don't have space, but Pittsburgh always seems to be able to surprise...

    I don't see a lot of contenders with much cap space, especially long term. I wonder if he ends up taking a shorter term, high AAV contract?
    A_K a aimé ceci.
    31 juill. 2020 à 12 h 7
    #10
    Démarrer sujet
    Lets Go Blues
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juin 2016
    Messages: 6,750
    Mentions "j'aime": 4,320
    Quoting: BluesBandit
    I really think that they move Bozak + Allen, sign Petro to an 8 year deal with lower AAV than 9, bridge Dunn, and buyout Steen. Petro and GMDA have both said they are trying to get a deal done.


    Seems like the best outcome to me, but maybe not the most realistic. Freeing up $10-12m with a flat cap, without giving up any assets... always hard to tell what's going through the mind of 31 NHL GMs though so we'll have to wait and see.
    dp6154 a aimé ceci.
    31 juill. 2020 à 12 h 13
    #11
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: avr. 2020
    Messages: 2,709
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,053
    Quoting: A_K
    Definitely an obstacle, but if Bozak wants to play his way into a new contract, Buffalo is one of the few teams that could give him more ice time to shine. When a team asks a player to waive a NTC, it usually means they're flat-out telling the player that there is no spot for them. Not sure if I'd want to stay on a team once that card was played... could be awkward.


    Players decline to waive all the time. Also likely ends up in bottom 6 role in Buffalo. So not really greatly expanding his role. If the Sabres cannot bring in a center fro outside the organization with greater offensive upside than Bozak then they likely play Cozens or Middlestadt in that role.
    31 juill. 2020 à 12 h 24
    #12
    Démarrer sujet
    Lets Go Blues
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juin 2016
    Messages: 6,750
    Mentions "j'aime": 4,320
    Quoting: dzmets
    Players decline to waive all the time. Also likely ends up in bottom 6 role in Buffalo. So not really greatly expanding his role. If the Sabres cannot bring in a center fro outside the organization with greater offensive upside than Bozak then they likely play Cozens or Middlestadt in that role.


    That's fair - BUF is just a team I've seen on here trading for Bozak as a middle six option. Definitely will be a challenge to find a new home for him - he can still play, but $5m is a tough fit.
    31 juill. 2020 à 12 h 29
    #13
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: avr. 2020
    Messages: 2,709
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,053
    Quoting: A_K
    That's fair - BUF is just a team I've seen on here trading for Bozak as a middle six option. Definitely will be a challenge to find a new home for him - he can still play, but $5m is a tough fit.


    Agreed it is going to be so tough to move contracts this year. Lots of teams are up against the cap and many of those that do have cap space will probably be working with self imposed caps well below the upper limit. I think UFA's and RFA's will be signing lots of 1 - 2 year deals at huge discounts. If Bozak were 2.5 to 3 on the cap I think he could be moved fairly easily
    31 juill. 2020 à 13 h 11
    #14
    Sabres fan
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juill. 2020
    Messages: 4,722
    Mentions "j'aime": 2,958
    Has there been any discussion regarding compliance buy outs for the upcoming season? Maybe if the board of governors asks for them to league may consider giving each team at least one.
    4 août 2020 à 9 h 6
    #15
    dp6154
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juill. 2019
    Messages: 213
    Mentions "j'aime": 46
    I mostly agree but a few things.

    One is that while I worry you are correct on Faulk and maybe this is me hoping too much, the writing on the wall-ish assumption seems a bit strong and I don't think they put on the "we'll talk to his agent while in town" dog and pony early in the year, around when they signed other extensions and before we knew the Blues were winning without Tarasenko most of the year, if the writing was on the wall. Army is a pretty risk averse GM, he like relationships with other guys and what he sees as bets because you gotta have value but also safe bets, so the Faulk deal seemed like security (that poetically could sink things). That said I do think it's sadly most likely because Pietro clearly wants to test the waters or we would have heard about negotiations during the COVID break and any team could sweep him off his feet with an offer, so I'll swap 20% of that and clearing cap space, leaving it 50-40 Pietro leaving vs clearing cap (obviously these numbers are wholly arbitrary by both of us but to reflect our respective confidence in said scenarios I think this is an appropriate shift f not less important than the whole comment)

    Two is that I do see the trade away to celar cap not necessarily happening in one trade, but very possibly. While it's probably more likely for say a Sharks or Wild team seeking Allen toi trade for him and a Steen dump being separate, something like Detroit taking both to get a 1st wouldn't be shocking (I also agree that I wouldn't be surprised if Gunnarsson is as good as gone, I know I'm papering over most agreement with "yeah I mostly agree" but I want to point this one out becuase I don't think it should get confused as me thinking it doesn't happen when I say one trade)

    Speaking of one trade and risk averse GM this brings me to my third and largest contention, i disagree on goalies. I know they seemed like a tandem team for a while but that was really just because Moose was good and Army likes someone to prove it in the NHL for a season before handing them the reigns. Moose was brought on as a relative cheap journeyman to be a clear backup, as was Hutton, in between Allen was set to be Moose's backup when Miller walked which is the exact type of risk you discuss the Blues avoiding and they took that risk, then Chad Johnson was brought in to make it clear to Allen that he wasn't in a tandem, then traded away and it was reach into the minors time. Meanwhile entering this year, Binnington hadn't proven he could do it for a whole year and Husso, this biggest Blues goalie prospects since Allen and arguably with bishop the second or third biggest Blues goalie prospect in the last generation until the likely mostly injury caused hiccup last year, was coming off of an injury riddled and bad season. Now Binnington has proven himself, Allen has a little trade value is is almost 100% walking after next year anyway, and Husso is healthy, ready, and looking good. his hype train has slowed down and Binnington is the clear future starter assuming clean contract negotiations but the Blues aren't signing tons of extensions to forwards and pushing themselves against captain loss risking cap trouble to keep spending 4+M on a backup. Husso will step into that role

    Also I take that Steen retirement and maybe lower the % a bit because he could just force the Blues to buy him out ,not sure why he would pass on over 3M to be a "team guy" and retire. more likely he is the team guy by waiving his NTC or resigning to a cheaper AAV the way Bouwmeester had been doing if Pietro walks

    Otherwise really good write up and work! thanks for the great discussion!
    A_K a aimé ceci.
    4 août 2020 à 9 h 9
    #16
    dp6154
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juill. 2019
    Messages: 213
    Mentions "j'aime": 46
    Mostly I was commited to the Steen +a 1st being the trade but I'm coming around to the fact that it's probably Bozak moving and good posts like this help ground me in that fact
    4 août 2020 à 9 h 15
    #17
    dp6154
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juill. 2019
    Messages: 213
    Mentions "j'aime": 46
    Quoting: dp6154
    I mostly agree but a few things.

    One is that while I worry you are correct on Faulk and maybe this is me hoping too much, the writing on the wall-ish assumption seems a bit strong and I don't think they put on the "we'll talk to his agent while in town" dog and pony early in the year, around when they signed other extensions and before we knew the Blues were winning without Tarasenko most of the year, if the writing was on the wall. Army is a pretty risk averse GM, he like relationships with other guys and what he sees as bets because you gotta have value but also safe bets, so the Faulk deal seemed like security (that poetically could sink things). That said I do think it's sadly most likely because Pietro clearly wants to test the waters or we would have heard about negotiations during the COVID break and any team could sweep him off his feet with an offer, so I'll swap 20% of that and clearing cap space, leaving it 50-40 Pietro leaving vs clearing cap (obviously these numbers are wholly arbitrary by both of us but to reflect our respective confidence in said scenarios I think this is an appropriate shift f not less important than the whole comment)

    Two is that I do see the trade away to celar cap not necessarily happening in one trade, but very possibly. While it's probably more likely for say a Sharks or Wild team seeking Allen toi trade for him and a Steen dump being separate, something like Detroit taking both to get a 1st wouldn't be shocking (I also agree that I wouldn't be surprised if Gunnarsson is as good as gone, I know I'm papering over most agreement with "yeah I mostly agree" but I want to point this one out becuase I don't think it should get confused as me thinking it doesn't happen when I say one trade)

    Speaking of one trade and risk averse GM this brings me to my third and largest contention, i disagree on goalies. I know they seemed like a tandem team for a while but that was really just because Moose was good and Army likes someone to prove it in the NHL for a season before handing them the reigns. Moose was brought on as a relative cheap journeyman to be a clear backup, as was Hutton, in between Allen was set to be Moose's backup when Miller walked which is the exact type of risk you discuss the Blues avoiding and they took that risk, then Chad Johnson was brought in to make it clear to Allen that he wasn't in a tandem, then traded away and it was reach into the minors time. Meanwhile entering this year, Binnington hadn't proven he could do it for a whole year and Husso, this biggest Blues goalie prospects since Allen and arguably with bishop the second or third biggest Blues goalie prospect in the last generation until the likely mostly injury caused hiccup last year, was coming off of an injury riddled and bad season. Now Binnington has proven himself, Allen has a little trade value is is almost 100% walking after next year anyway, and Husso is healthy, ready, and looking good. his hype train has slowed down and Binnington is the clear future starter assuming clean contract negotiations but the Blues aren't signing tons of extensions to forwards and pushing themselves against captain loss risking cap trouble to keep spending 4+M on a backup. Husso will step into that role

    Also I take that Steen retirement and maybe lower the % a bit because he could just force the Blues to buy him out ,not sure why he would pass on over 3M to be a "team guy" and retire. more likely he is the team guy by waiving his NTC or resigning to a cheaper AAV the way Bouwmeester had been doing if Pietro walks

    Otherwise really good write up and work! thanks for the great discussion!


    I will Also Amend if Allen goes to Minny the Blues could just bring back Stalock. That takes away from the draft capital return and doesn't bring the best backup but he's serviceable and costs the same as Husso and as much as the team like Husso again risk averse Doug Armstrong he can keep Stalock until Husso is for sure ready then dump him. Minny would have the cap space and need to upgrade goalies. But I stand by save that specific scenario I think Husso is the backup next year
     
    Répondre
    To create a post please Login or S'inscrire
    Question:
    Options:
    Ajouter une option
    Soumettre le sondage