Obviously, it seems that Cody Ceci has already gotten himself a role in the starting lineup, playing a top 4 role with Morgan Rielly. However, I decided to make this post to discuss whether or not he should play at all.
First, let's take a look at his stats. Ceci is known to be a stay-at-home defenceman. At even strength, his expected goals against ranks in the 83rd percentile out of 100, while his shots against rank in the 56th. In terms of rates, his xGA/60 ranks in the 90th percentile while his CA/60 ranks in the 69th. Based on these stats, we can understand that he is good at preventing quality scoring chances and slightly below replacement at preventing shot quantity in general.
However, due to the fact that he generates very little offence, is horrible at moving the puck in transition and is a liability on the penalty kill, his overall impact and WAR is below replacement level. While I am not concerned about his lack of offensive play, it is more his poor transition ability that makes me worried.
To play alongside Rielly who is horrible at preventing shots & scoring chances, it is important for his partner to not only be very good defensively, but also strong moving the puck up the ice. Ceci can continue to be a workhorse in his own end but if he can't get the puck out, then they will be undersiege since Rielly will do nothing to help him.
This is why I feel Dermott would be the perfect partner for Rielly. He is excellent at expressing shots & chances, but is also one of the best in the league in transition. It just seems that given his lack of sample size in a role that big, they aren't going to put him with Rielly for the playoffs.
Another issue is, if you play Dermott with Rielly, then who does Barrie & Ceci play with? It would probably make sense to scratch Ceci and play Barrie with Sandin, but according to many analysts, the Sandin-Barrie pairing performed horribly during their brief stint during the regular season while Sandin-Ceci were a lot more stable. However, it just doesn't seem right to scratch Barrie.
That’s the trick question, cuz it was reported that Sandin played better with Ceci than with Barrie. Perhaps it’s incorrect, but that’s what it looked like.
That’s the trick question, cuz it was reported that Sandin played better with Ceci than with Barrie. Perhaps it’s incorrect, but that’s what it looked like.
That’s the trick question, cuz it was reported that Sandin played better with Ceci than with Barrie. Perhaps it’s incorrect, but that’s what it looked like.
If you want to base it on who played well with who in limited sample sizes then play Rielly with Barrie. They were fantastic when paired together.
I wouldn't put Ceci in the lineup over Holl/Barrie/Dermott if that's gonna be your right side
Everyone is going to need to form chemistry again to some extent, so I wouldn't be too worried about who has played better with who. It's all gonna be a coin flip anyway, so just play your best players (which Ceci is not one of)
Also, I would strongly challenge the notion that Ceci is known to be a stay at home Dman. Sure, he had an okay year in terms of xGA and shots against, but his past performances do not support that claim at all.
Honestly, I think Dermott kind of disaponted me a this season. This is hard to back up by stats, but I felt at times that the game was a bit too fast for him (not skating wise, but I think he took too long to evaluate the situation)
So I don't really mind playing Ceci. but also, this is almost like a new season, so we don't know
If you want to base it on who played well with who in limited sample sizes then play Rielly with Barrie. They were fantastic when paired together.
Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Also, I would strongly challenge the notion that Ceci is known to be a stay at home Dman. Sure, he had an okay year in terms of xGA and shots against, but his past performances do not support that claim at all.
I don’t have the stats for Rielly-Barrie but they looked pretty good other than during the NJD game when Mikheyev lacerated his wrist. According to @Miles_Togo, the Leafs had the tendency to play Barrie with Rielly when the team was down a goal, tied or during an offensive zone faceoff, while Ceci was used to protect a lead. I think we’ll see that again in the playoffs.
I misworded, historically, Ceci has been known to be a horrible defenceman both offensively & defensively, but this season his stats have been surprisingly good.
Honestly, I think Dermott kind of disaponted me a this season. This is hard to back up by stats, but I felt at times that the game was a bit too fast for him (not skating wise, but I think he took too long to evaluate the situation)
So I don't really mind playing Ceci. but also, this is almost like a new season, so we don't know
I think that is fair criticism of Dermott. There was a few times during the second half of the season that he got burned by the opposition or failed to recover.
I wouldn't be opposed to them trying:
Rielly - Dermott
Muzzin - Holl
Ceci - Barrie
See how it looks in camp. If it looks fine try it out for the exhibition game. If it looks fine in the exhibition game try it in the play in. It would also give them information to help them prepare for next year.
I can't see Sandin getting in unless it is injury replacement.
Sandin and Ceci worked pretty well together.
Sandin and Barrie did not.
The latter pair had to be sheltered with offensive zone starts - starts I would rather see going to the Rielly pair in the playoffs. Defensively Sandin and Barrie were bad. If you have a subscription to NHL.com, and spare time go back and watch games in which Sandin and Ceci were paired together, vs games in which Sandin and Barrie were paired together. Especially watch the two pairings in the defensive zone. How poorly the Sandin/Barrie pair covered in front of the net. How easily teams cycled against them. But even in the offensive and neutral zone, Sandin looks less confident playing with Barrie. He doesn't seem to try to create much when with Barrie and instead is trying to be the responsible one, waiting for the 3-on-1 against while Barrie plays the dwinger position. A young offensive D should be the one in the pairing trying to be creative and taking some risks confident that they have a partner who can bail them out most of the time.
I don’t have the stats for Rielly-Barrie but they looked pretty good other than during the NJD game when Mikheyev lacerated his wrist. According to @Miles_Togo, the Leafs had the tendency to play Barrie with Rielly when the team was down a goal, tied or during an offensive zone faceoff, while Ceci was used to protect a lead. I think we’ll see that again in the playoffs.
I misworded, historically, Ceci has been known to be a horrible defenceman both offensively & defensively, but this season his stats have been surprisingly good.
Rielly - Barrie was very good. Put up positives across the board.
Wouldn't say that that usage assessment is accurate; at least not since Keefe took over. The Rielly - Barrie pairing was actually used more often when tied or leading than when trailing. The Ozone start point is correct, though.
No.
Muzzin-Holl
Rielly-Dermott
Marincin-Barrie.
If they dress 7 d they can give him a few defensive minutes and pk time but hes still the leafs 5th best penalty killer
I misworded, historically, Ceci has been known to be a horrible defenceman both offensively & defensively, but this season his stats have been surprisingly good.
My belief is that coaching has alot to do with Ceci's numbers looking good defensively. I know not everyone was/is a fan of Babcock, but he is still alot better than Ceci's previous coaches. I think Keefe will get more out of him.
Now...to answer the original question. Columbus is not making it easy for the Leafs and that means controlling the pace/style of play via physical play.
Sandin got roughed up at times during the season and I dunno if this is the series for Sandin. I'd try him for a game maybe but I'm leaning towards sticking with Ceci.
BTW I was listening to TSN radio today and it was reported that Dermott was Rielly's partner.
Nothing is set in stone yet I think so we'll see.
I think Dermott is a good partner for Rielly moving forward. This year with the 2 ufa rhd still on the toaster I think you have to play them on their strong side. But I don’t know how camp is going sooooo.....
I think Dermott is a good partner for Rielly moving forward. This year with the 2 ufa rhd still on the toaster I think you have to play them on their strong side. But I don’t know how camp is going sooooo.....
But with Keefe's coaching I think the Rielly/Ceci pairing could work. A problem with Rielly/Dermott pairing becomes is, where to play Ceci?
If I'm betting man, I'm putting my money on Ceci being in the majority of the games vs Columbus.
mhockey91 a aimé ceci.
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