Aho isn't going to be the dealbreaker in any trade. No team is going to say no to Boychuk for a 1st round pick, but yes to Boychuk for a 1st round pick + Aho.

He doesn't have any name value among fans, because a lot of people don't know who he is. I think he's the type of under the radar player yzerman would trade for. No one knew who Devon toews was 2 years ago, and to be fair a lot of fans don't know how good he is now. He was buried in Bridgeport for a while, just like aho.

That may be true, but he's still a 24 year old "prospect" that has yet to stick on the NHL roster. Let's put it this way...are the Islanders going to protect him in the expansion draft? Is Seattle going to take him in the expansion draft? If the answer to those questions is clearly no, then he's not anything more than a throw-in on this trade.

If Yzerman really wanted him, he could just wait until the end of training camp in November and claim him for free off of waivers. Detroit gets the first stab at any players that hit the waiver wire.

I think Seattle would likely take him in the expansion draft. Im pretty sure Aho doesn't have to go through waivers , toews signed a 2 year, one way deal with a 700 k AAV a few years ago and he didn't have to go through waivers.

Aho does have to go through waivers starting with the 2020-21 season (as does Toews). He gets 3 years of waiver exemption after signing his ELC (no slide-rule since he was 21 when he signed). This season was his 3rd season:

Sebastian Aho Waiver Calculator

Guys like Kiefer Bellows and Josh Bailey are currently projected to be left exposed due to the other guys higher on the priority list. There's no way Seattle takes Aho over either of those guys.

Devon Toews signed a 2 year one way deal when he was 24 yo (same age as Aho). That 2 year deal meant that he would still be an RFA at the age of 26 (this offseason). After toews signed that deal, he was sent to Bridgeport after camp. So if Aho signs that same deal, he doesn't require waivers I guess.

I saw that article in the athletic - bellows will be a regular this season so if he plays well he will end up being protected. I wouldn't mind if Seattle took Bailey, but I feel like they would opt for younger players or an older guy with less term.

It's not rocket science. Look at the Waiver FAQ here.

Toews was 22 when he signed his ELC, so he gets 3 years or 70 NHL games of waiver eligibility from when he signed his contract (April 15, 2016). Therefore he was waiver exempt for the 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19 seasons, but not this season.

Aho signed his ELC at age 21 (July 5, 2017), meaning he gets 3 years or 80 NHL games of waiver eligibility. That means he would have been exempt for the 2017-18, 2018-19, and 2019-20 seasons (hence why he still shows as waiver eligible now). However, once this season ends and next season starts (October 31, 2020), Aho will no longer be waiver exempt and will have to clear if he is demoted to the AHL.

If Bellows is protected, they'll have to leave one of the other forwards exposed. Barzal, Eberle, Lee, Nelson, Cizikas, Pageau, Beauvillier. Exactly which of those guys would be passed over in favor of Aho?

Yeah Wings need something better than Aho coming back with the 1st. If we're using the marleau one year cap dump as a basis, factor in COVID financial fallout and that Boychuk has two years left, it's gonna cost 2021 1st + 2022 1st or equivalent prospect

Barzal is going to ask for Mitch Marner money IMO. I’d be surprised if he signs for less than $10,000,000 on a 5+ year deal.

Gotcha - doubt lou lamoriello wouldn’t put him through waivers. I think he’ll attempt to sign him to a two year one way deal like toews and then trade him. The only reason why Aho is not in the NHL is because he has had to deal with 2 coaches that do not give opportunities to smaller defenseman.

Cizikas is a UFA next year and I think if the isles left lee exposed, Seattle wouldn’t take him. Too much term.

His comparable is Aho

Is there really any doubt that the Islanders will re-sign Cizikas?

1st line forwards are hard to come by in the expansion draft. Especially guys that are able to play center. The Athletic article you referenced had Colton Scissons, Sam Bennett, and Joel Lorwy as the top three centers on the team. Lee instantly jumps to the 1C spot. Guys with leadership experience are coveted as well. It would be pretty easy for Seattle to make Lee the face of the franchise if he was left exposed. That would be a pretty easy decision.

I respect you sticking by your argument, but there's just no way that Aho would ever be considered as the expansion draft selection. The Athletic article doesn't even mention him as one of the possible selections since he's not a realistic choice. Arthur Staple says that Mayfield would be higher on the preference list for defensemen if Seattle did decide they wanted one of the Islanders' defensemen.

I love cizikas, but after signing pageau to be the 3C the isles can not afford to give cizikas 3.5-4 mill to be the 4C. They have to sign beauvillier , who’s young and has emerged as a legitimate top 6 F and pelech, their top pair shutdown defenseman.

Anders lee has never played center at the NHL level, he’s a lw. He’s a solid top 6 goal scoring W, but by the time Seattle is a playoff team he’ll be 32/33 years old. I wouldn’t think twice about protecting bellows over lee if bellows puts up 15-20 goals next season. He’s younger and cost controlled.

Arthur staple has been wrong plenty of times, he’s a good writer but it’s just speculation. Mayfield is a 3rd pairing caliber defenseman while Aho has lit up the AHL and has 2nd pairing D PP1 upside. On a lot of other teams he’d be in the NHL already - im not even being biased, there’s plenty of prospects/players in the islanders organizations that fans overrate. If you watch Aho and look at his underlying numbers, you’ll see he doesn’t belong in the AHL

1. Barzal is slightly less than Aho.
2. Marner signed that deal in a higher taxed area.