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Dubas evaluation

Créé par: Gordon_Bombay
Équipe: 2020-21 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 15 juill. 2020
Publié: 15 juill. 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
A Drafting. I think the Leafs drafted very well under Dubas, found some value picks (Robertson, Sandin etc.)

A+ international free agents signings. I think they won some the race for some very good players for free.

B Trades. Some good ones, and some who did not really turn out the way everybody was hoping for

B- contract negotiation.

What do you think?
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
1781 500 000 $76 924 783 $0 $0 $4 575 217 $
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C, AG
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5 625 000 $5 625 000 $
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15 juill. 2020 à 17 h 52
#26
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Quoting: DaveAyersStan
Matthews isn’t close to McDavid. McDavid is the best player in the world and Matthews is arguably top 10.


not saying he's as good, saying that with cap inflation on an 8 year deal, given that the top 3 centres under 25 are him Mackinnon (who signed his deal before he broke out) and McDavid so on a long term deal with a higher cap its fair to say he could have signed for that. Hell the reason the leafs gave him that term is because they knew someone would offer sheet him an absurd amount and they'd lose him, so if that deal is what it took to either prevent a team like Arizona, Columbus, Montreal, Minnesota, etc. from offering him 14 mil and either taking him away from us or forcing us to pay him even more, then fine by me. One of those sports net guys, I think it was Chris Johnson or Darren Dreger, he said on Spittin Chiclets that its was genuinely believed by NHL gms that Arizona would have offered him up to 15M. Which would be a hell of a lot worse than keeping him for 11.5 x 5
15 juill. 2020 à 17 h 53
#27
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Quoting: NR1203
If Matthews got 12.5 or 13, Marner would have demanded more too...


then sucks to be Marner. I let him walk for 4 first round picks or trade him for D if he's gonna be a prick like that. He's not Matthews. Not a goal scoring 2 way face-of-franchise center.
15 juill. 2020 à 17 h 55
#28
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Quoting: aadoyle
Actually in drafting he gets an A as u should have heard the stories that came out when Lou left. Back in 2015 when Lou drafted Martins Dzierkals, Lou was telling him about Cirelli but Lou being the stubborn guy he is did not listen.

In fact if u look at 2016 its shocking what Dubas was suggesting Lou get

1. Instead of Korshkov Dubas was suggesting Debrincat but Lou didnt like him for his size, same thing happened with Bratt, and even Hart. Lou had more faith in Woll than Hart lul. Same with AHO, instead of Dermott we could have had AHO which sure meant no Tavares.

But What could have been

Debrincat-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Aho-Nylander
Bratt-Cirelli-Kapenan
Kerfoot-Spezza-Mikheyev

Rielly-Barrie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liligren
(if lou would have never signed zaitsev and sure Kadri got traded) but this would have been a deadly contendor)

There is also the matter of contracts. While Marner got 1mill overpaid and Matthews got 3 years less term, compared to what Lou did thats nothing. He signed Marleau to 3 years at 6.25 mill and made it where we needed to give a 1st to dump him. Than he signed Zaitsev to a 4.5mill deal which made us have to take on cody ceci to get rid of him and we lost Brown.

So while Dubas may have little flaws I would rather have him than Lou any day.


Never said Lou was better 😂
15 juill. 2020 à 17 h 57
#29
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Quoting: vr1995
you do the redraft today, hes 1st round 100%


Ok sure, but that doesnt mean anything while hes still in the OHL. Could he end up like DeBrincat, Fox, or Point, of course. My point is its far to early to say hes 100% a steal
15 juill. 2020 à 17 h 59
#30
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Quoting: leafs101
not saying he's as good, saying that with cap inflation on an 8 year deal, given that the top 3 centres under 25 are him Mackinnon (who signed his deal before he broke out) and McDavid so on a long term deal with a higher cap its fair to say he could have signed for that. Hell the reason the leafs gave him that term is because they knew someone would offer sheet him an absurd amount and they'd lose him, so if that deal is what it took to either prevent a team like Arizona, Columbus, Montreal, Minnesota, etc. from offering him 14 mil and either taking him away from us or forcing us to pay him even more, then fine by me. One of those sports net guys, I think it was Chris Johnson or Darren Dreger, he said on Spittin Chiclets that its was genuinely believed by NHL gms that Arizona would have offered him up to 15M. Which would be a hell of a lot worse than keeping him for 11.5 x 5


The top 3 centers under 25 is pretty clearly MacKinnon McDavid and Draisaitl now. The next tier after them is Matthews, Eichel, and Barkov.
15 juill. 2020 à 18 h 24
#31
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Quoting: oneX
Well... not that anyone likes to overpay for anything, ever... but if you were to make a mistake in an overpay, where would you do such a thing?

Top two lines players or bottom line players? Perhaps a D?

Again, nobody ever wants to overpay but if it were me, I'd rather overpay Matthews, Marner or Nylander than overpay Kapanen, Johnsson, Kerfoot or any other bottom line players.

Overall I agree with most of the drafting and trades grades.


tbh it wouldve been better if he overpaid bottom line players. It wouldve been less term and he couldve dumped their contracts if he wanted to without destroying their team. Because he overpaid his star players he cannot get cap relief from those overpays without blowing up the core
15 juill. 2020 à 18 h 32
#32
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Quoting: moli92
tbh it wouldve been better if he overpaid bottom line players. It wouldve been less term and he couldve dumped their contracts if he wanted to without destroying their team. Because he overpaid his star players he cannot get cap relief from those overpays without blowing up the core


I don't agree. It's more expensive to rid yourself of a bottom line overpay over a top line player.

Much more likely that a top line player over achieves than an overpaid bottom line player.
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15 juill. 2020 à 18 h 32
#33
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Quoting: moli92
tbh it wouldve been better if he overpaid bottom line players. It wouldve been less term and he couldve dumped their contracts if he wanted to without destroying their team. Because he overpaid his star players he cannot get cap relief from those overpays without blowing up the core


Couldn't disagree more.
Rather overpay little for top talent then have Lucic deal on the books.
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15 juill. 2020 à 18 h 32
#34
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Ok sure, but that doesnt mean anything while hes still in the OHL. Could he end up like DeBrincat, Fox, or Point, of course. My point is its far to early to say hes 100% a steal


I agree it’s a little early to call him a great steal, but so far it appears he is going to be great. In a redraft he goes first round 100%.
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15 juill. 2020 à 18 h 37
#35
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Quoting: Saskleaf
I agree it’s a little early to call him a great steal, but so far it appears he is going to be great. In a redraft he goes first round 100%.


For now yes, I agree he does.
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15 juill. 2020 à 18 h 40
#36
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Quoting: DaveAyersStan
Throwing away a couple million isn’t the attitude you need tho Matthews and Marner were really bad overpays compared to others that signed last summer like rantanen.

Not really, I'll give you Rantanen but beyond all other RFAs signed bridge deals with Massive QO - Matthews is a 40 goal scorer in his sleep he's proven that, Marner is over a PPG , Tavares was offered a much higher paid contract. Would I like Matthews with a little more term yes or Marner at a Rantenan deal yes - but atrocious no not even close - these 2 overpaid players will be under 30 when their contracts expire niether have NTC and both are very movable
15 juill. 2020 à 18 h 42
#37
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Quoting: moli92
tbh it wouldve been better if he overpaid bottom line players. It wouldve been less term and he couldve dumped their contracts if he wanted to without destroying their team. Because he overpaid his star players he cannot get cap relief from those overpays without blowing up the core


You mean like Vancouver lol , stop it
15 juill. 2020 à 18 h 47
#38
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Quoting: leafs101
Honestly the contracts aren't as bad as people say.

He won the Tavares sweepstakes over really great teams like Tampa Bay, San Jose, New York, Boston, and all the other teams that were reportedly meeting with him. On top of that, Tavares signed for a rumoured $2-2.5 million less than he was offered from teams like New York and San Jose. I see that as a good contract.

The Nylander contract is looking pretty good now. I have no complaints there.

Marner is overpaid by about 1.5-2M. Not egregious, and who knows, he's 22. Nothing has shown that he can't grow into that extra money, he's a very talented player.

Matthews is the face of the franchise. The MVP. 47 goals in 70 games. Worth every penny in my opinion. Term isn't great but that's 4 years from now's problem.

Leafs just need a change in the playoffs. They are such an underrated playoff team imo because of the Boston losses. Took the cup final team to 7 games while neither Columbus nor Carolina could (Carolina couldn't even get one win on them). I think once they get over the hump and take a decent run (which I think will be this year- not saying a cup, which would be nice and not totally out of question, but a nice run making it the the 2nd round or conference finals) people might start to see the contracts in a better light.


Quoting: DaveAyersStan
Point is the leafs should have 2.5 million more to work with then they do now. They overpaid good players but still overpaid.


Quoting: AndrewLadd
I agree he’s good at drafting, I’d give trading a B- but it’s not that much of a difference than your rating. I’d give him C- contract negotiating


You know what I always wondered.

Nylander's ELC expired one year before Matthews and they had a lot of cap space back then. I wonder if they could have signed him insted of the

45m contract with a hit of 10.277 in year one and then 6.9 for the next 5 to a one year contract

With a one year deal at 15m (I think the maximum is in that area) one year contract
And then also to a 5 year contract with an annual value at 6m

Both would be 45 million in total value, but the leafs would have almost 1 million cap space more every year for 5 years.

You think that would have worked? It is basically not cheating, while also cheating
15 juill. 2020 à 18 h 55
#39
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Quoting: DaveAyersStan
Point is the leafs should have 2.5 million more to work with then they do now. They overpaid good players but still overpaid.


I think the real point is that Matthews is still a leaf. They discussed mcdavid money (cap%) believe it came in at 13.8m if I’m not mistaken for 8 years. They negotiated and got him down 2% on a 5 year deal. If dubas hadn’t he would have been playing somewhere else.

Marner is overpaid. I would say by 1-1.5m. Is what is. His camp wanted Matthews money.
15 juill. 2020 à 19 h 0
#40
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Quoting: Gordon_Bombay
You know what I always wondered.

Nylander's ELC expired one year before Matthews and they had a lot of cap space back then. I wonder if they could have signed him insted of the

45m contract with a hit of 10.277 in year one and then 6.9 for the next 5 to a one year contract

With a one year deal at 15m (I think the maximum is in that area) one year contract
And then also to a 5 year contract with an annual value at 6m

Both would be 45 million in total value, but the leafs would have almost 1 million cap space more every year for 5 years.

You think that would have worked? It is basically not cheating, while also cheating


Nylander’s actual cap hit on year one was 6.9m. The inflated number counts the time missed which is not accrued in our cap. That is why year one is higher on late signings of RFA’s. Otherwise we would have been rewarded with a cap hit around 4.5-5m for nylander in the first year.

It’s to close a loophole for cap circumvention.
15 juill. 2020 à 19 h 6
#41
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Quoting: oneX
I don't agree. It's more expensive to rid yourself of a bottom line overpay over a top line player.

Much more likely that a top line player over achieves than an overpaid bottom line player.


Quoting: Trickster
Couldn't disagree more.
Rather overpay little for top talent then have Lucic deal on the books.


Well if you take it to extremes like the Lucic deal then obviously not. But if you consider a similar magnitude of overpay but with a lower term (since bottom line players arent generally signed to 5-6 year deals) then I would rather overpay the bottom line guy.

Matthews and Marner were both overpaid by about 1.5M/year, which means they combine for a 3M overpay for the first 5 years of their deals, and then 1.5M for the 6th year. This extra cap space cannot be recouped without trading a core player

vs

Overpay a bottom line guy by 3M for a couple years. This extra cap space can be recouped without ruining the core by dumping his cap along with picks/prospect/assets to another team so that the cap space can be used to improve the rest of the team.

I would rather cut my losses and give up a pick to solve a cap problem then have to deal with it for the next 6 years with no way out besides trading a star player
15 juill. 2020 à 19 h 10
#42
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Quoting: Boomer125
You mean like Vancouver lol , stop it


well VAN did it a couple too many times lol. A better comparison would be:

Option A:
Matthews @ 11.634M
Marner @ 10.893M

Option B:
Matthews @ 10M
Marner @ 9.25M
A bad player @ 4M

Id take option B and send the bad player as a cap dump to DET/OTT/LAK/NJD along with a pick. Theres no real option for cap relief from the signings in option A while you are able to cut your losses and move on with option B
15 juill. 2020 à 19 h 15
#43
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Quoting: moli92
well VAN did it a couple too many times lol. A better comparison would be:

Option A:
Matthews @ 11.634M
Marner @ 10.893M

Option B:
Matthews @ 10M
Marner @ 9.25M
A bad player @ 4M

Id take option B and send the bad player as a cap dump to DET/OTT/LAK/NJD along with a pick. Theres no real option for cap relief from the signings in option A while you are able to cut your losses and move on with option B


Or let's go with option C and don't sign the bad player at all
15 juill. 2020 à 19 h 40
#44
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Quoting: Jamiepo
I think the real point is that Matthews is still a leaf. They discussed mcdavid money (cap%) believe it came in at 13.8m if I’m not mistaken for 8 years. They negotiated and got him down 2% on a 5 year deal. If dubas hadn’t he would have been playing somewhere else.

Marner is overpaid. I would say by 1-1.5m. Is what is. His camp wanted Matthews money.


Matthews isn’t in McDavids area so Dubas should of let his agents know that he isn’t as good as they think
16 juill. 2020 à 8 h 5
#45
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Quoting: DaveAyersStan
Matthews isn’t in McDavids area so Dubas should of let his agents know that he isn’t as good as they think


And let him walk?
16 juill. 2020 à 9 h 10
#46
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
For now yes, I agree he does.


which what i was trying to say, as of right now
16 juill. 2020 à 20 h 19
#47
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Quoting: DaveAyersStan
Throwing away a couple million isn’t the attitude you need tho Matthews and Marner were really bad overpays compared to others that signed last summer like rantanen.


I wouldn't say really bad, they were overpays but there have been far worse ones.
16 juill. 2020 à 20 h 21
#48
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Quoting: leafs101
then sucks to be Marner. I let him walk for 4 first round picks or trade him for D if he's gonna be a prick like that. He's not Matthews. Not a goal scoring 2 way face-of-franchise center.


If some team was willing to pay him that kind of money (4 firsts), they would have done it by that point. And no team would have traded for him with his contract demands unless it was like Hall for Larsson... where the Leafs gave Marner up for some average Dman and it wouldn't be worth it.
17 juill. 2020 à 8 h 15
#49
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Quoting: NR1203
If some team was willing to pay him that kind of money (4 firsts), they would have done it by that point. And no team would have traded for him with his contract demands unless it was like Hall for Larsson... where the Leafs gave Marner up for some average Dman and it wouldn't be worth it.


well 4 firsts is what they would have got on an offer sheet, so I'm saying at that point if he doesn't sign for what you want you let him get offer sheeted
17 juill. 2020 à 22 h 47
#50
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Quoting: leafs101
well 4 firsts is what they would have got on an offer sheet, so I'm saying at that point if he doesn't sign for what you want you let him get offer sheeted


But no team offer sheeted him... if someone was gonna do it they would have done it by the time training camps opened.
 
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