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The reality of a flat cap the next two seasons

Créé par: ChiHawk
Équipe: 2020-21 Blackhawks de Chicago
Date de création initiale: 11 juill. 2020
Publié: 11 juill. 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Strome and Kubalik both will not want to sign long term, they will want short term deals to maximize a long term contract when the cap raises. This will be common for players coming off of ELCs the this offseason and next.

Big signings and big trades are going to be limited. Teams will be closely looking at trades that benefit both teams but not acquiring much more cap. NJD, with Maatta's low buyout is a good option for a team not against the cap but if not, Hawks can always buyout Maatta if unable to find a trade partner. The Toronto trade, has been done a million times by fans of both sides, is a benefit to both teams. This trade will not happen until after Thanksgiving as the Hawks will give Mitchell a chance to show if he's ready and if he is, they need to move Murphy to get better depth up front. If this trade doesn't happen, then Hawks keep Carps.
Carps gets moved, really to any team, if we re-sign Caggs (likely) and given that Kampf is solid on the PK and Highmore has evolved into a 4th line impact player.

I don't see De Haan getting moved right now, simply because his injury history and his value being low while his cap hit reasonably high. If he has a good season in 20/21, I can see the Hawks trying to move him next summer to free up more space. Hawks will use the 3rd line opportunity to take close looks at both Carlsson and Beaudin.

Due to the cap, the Hawks will not bring in another vet goalie. The Hawks are carrying over bonus money already from this season into this next year. They need a reserve at least $2M to cover bonuses.

I know this is boring to most Hawks fans on here, but this is realistic. We are not going to see big moves with a flat cap for the next 2 years. This is going to be the team for now, and if the Dach, Strome, Cat and Kubalik can continue to develop, the front has the opportunity to be really good. This provides 3 scoring lines that should get close to even playing time offering the players more distributed icetime and allowing less wear and tear on them collectively.

If Boqvist, Mitchell and Carlsson continue to take the steps they need, De Haan comes back strong from surgery, then collectively with the front this is a playoff contending team. Obviously not a cup contender yet IMO, but a solid playoff team.

Hawks likely draft at the #10 position and if Sanderson is available, can see them going that route. Apparently the rumor is the Hawks are scouting Lundell, Sanderson and Quinn the most. Obviously if they get the #1 pick it's an easy decision. Lundell, Sanderson and Quinn will take 1 to 2 years of development likely.
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11 juill. 2020 à 11 h 56
#1
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ok. If the cost of Kapanen is murphy, then your retaining at least 850k of salary and were NOT giving you a pick. If anything a 6th
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11 juill. 2020 à 11 h 59
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You know my position ok KK. I think what he brings can be found for less than Murphy.
11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 0
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Quoting: keep_ups12
ok. If the cost of Kapanen is murphy, then your retaining at least 850k of salary and were NOT giving you a pick. If anything a 6th


$650K makes it a cap wash for TOR and Chicago. If we retain nothing, then the trade is even, but retaining $650K is not free especially in a cap flat world so is WILL cost Toronto a pick be it a 4th or 5th. If Toronto doesn't like it, then that's fine we are happy to keep Murphy as he's a very solid and reliable and flexible defenseman for the Hawks. Those kind of right handed defenseman are more valuable then a middle 6 winger that was on target for 15 goals this season.
11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 3
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Quoting: exo2769
You know my position ok KK. I think what he brings can be found for less than Murphy.


I don't disagree necessarily but if Mitchell shows he can play as advertised, then the Hawks should move Murphy (or conversely De Haan and switch Murphy to the left side) in December.
11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 5
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Modifié 11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 18
Ok, I read the whole thing. There are a number of small, but important things here. Most of those bonuses are Dach's if he becomes top 10 in points/goals/assists. I don't think we need to be that worried about Bonuses. $1.5M-$1.75M is my guess because Dach/Boqvist will hit most of their lower tier bonuses...and then some fluff for the others. This should allow a guy like Talbot or Greiss to sign a 1 year deal.

I 100% agree with the short term deals for RFAs. MOST teams have cap issues and guys like Kubalik/Strome found their place and risk losing the BIG contract. Strome knows all to well what a poorly run organization can do. If the Hawks get the #10 OA then I'd take Lundell, then Quinn, then Sanderson OR Askarov.

***EDIT*** oh and who does Seattle take? I think they take DeHaan. If he gets hurt then it's likely Carlsson, but if he gets hurt he's LTIR. Either way I think the Hawks will get some cap relief next year....and I'd like to target Brodin hence why I'm not 100% for drafting Sanderson and Quinn would replace Saad if he's going for the money...which he might.
11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 20
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Quoting: ChiHawk
$650K makes it a cap wash for TOR and Chicago. If we retain nothing, then the trade is even, but retaining $650K is not free especially in a cap flat world so is WILL cost Toronto a pick be it a 4th or 5th. If Toronto doesn't like it, then that's fine we are happy to keep Murphy as he's a very solid and reliable and flexible defenseman for the Hawks. Those kind of right handed defenseman are more valuable then a middle 6 winger that was on target for 15 goals this season.


Quoting: ChiHawk
$650K makes it a cap wash for TOR and Chicago. If we retain nothing, then the trade is even, but retaining $650K is not free especially in a cap flat world so is WILL cost Toronto a pick be it a 4th or 5th. If Toronto doesn't like it, then that's fine we are happy to keep Murphy as he's a very solid and reliable and flexible defenseman for the Hawks. Those kind of right handed defenseman are more valuable then a middle 6 winger that was on target for 15 goals this season.


thats fine. Will just trade Kapanen for picks then trade third for lyabushkin who is better and cheaper. We can stop with these Murphy for Kapanen trades now
11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 22
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Quoting: exo2769
Ok, I read the whole thing. There are a number of small, but important things here. Most of those bonuses are Dach's if he becomes top 10 in points/goals/assists. I don't think we need to be that worried about Bonuses. $1.5M-$1.75M is my guess because Dach/Boqvist will hit most of their lower tier bonuses...and then some fluff for the others. This should allow a guy like Talbot or Greiss to sign a 1 year deal.

I 100% agree with the short term deals for RFAs. MOST teams have cap issues and guys like Kubalik/Strome found their place and risk losing the BIG contract. Strome knows all to well what a poorly run organization can do. If the Hawks get the #10 OA then I'd take Lundell, then Quinn, then Sanderson OR Askarov.

***EDIT*** oh and who does Seattle take? I think they take DeHaan. If he gets hurt then it's likely Carlsson, but if he gets hurt he's LTIR. Either way I think the Hawks will get some cap relief next year....and I'd like to target Brodin hence why I'm not 100% for drafting Sanderson and Quinn would replace Saad if he's going for the money...which he might.


There are carry bonuses from this season that apply next. Those bonuses were Dach, but more expensive where Kubalik hitting all his bonuses, and Strome also made some bonuses.

We expose Caggs and De haan is my guess.
11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 28
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Quoting: keep_ups12
thats fine. Will just trade Kapanen for picks then trade third for lyabushkin who is better and cheaper. We can stop with these Murphy for Kapanen trades now


LMAO you think Lyubushkin is better the Muprhy? WOW that's hysterical. Furthermore, if he's so good, AZ isn't giving him up for a 3rd pick for him, and AZ is cap strapped as well so they aren't giving up ELC players...nobody will be giving up ELCs if they are NHL players. Nonetheless, Lyubushkin is NOT better then Murphy, that's hysterical you'd suggest that and basically just demonstrated your opinions don't hold much weight.
11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 36
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Quoting: ChiHawk
LMAO you think Lyubushkin is better the Muprhy? WOW that's hysterical. Furthermore, if he's so good, AZ isn't giving him up for a 3rd pick for him, and AZ is cap strapped as well so they aren't giving up ELC players...nobody will be giving up ELCs if they are NHL players. Nonetheless, Lyubushkin is NOT better then Murphy, that's hysterical you'd suggest that and basically just demonstrated your opinions don't hold much weight.


Yes for sure. Lyabushkin had an amazing year for a bottom pairing defense man. Amazing on offense and defense. Lyabushkin isn't on his ELC. He needs a new contract and we could easily just OS him for a third so they wouldn't mind giving him to a team that isn't in their conference. So your point their is in valid. Murphy had Gustafsson as a linemate to and Lyabushkin has Oesterle who I have heard of once in my lifetime. For advance stats Lyabushkin leads in GF/60, xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60. The only thing Murphy takes is CA/60. Lyabushkin is also a way better puck mover and I am pretty sure murphy doesn't even know what that is.
11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 36
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I think we definelty need to push for 3 year deals on Kubalik and Strome, so I like that you did that on Strome and I would like to see that on Kubalik as well. The reason being that Kane, Toews, Debrincat, and Kieth all also expire in 3 years. 3 year deals allows us complete flexibily in the 2023-2024 offseason as the only big-money deal past that would be Seabrooks. Dach and Boqvist will probably only be on bridge deals at that point anyways so we would have a ton of cap space to do whatever we want with. 3 years deals will also have them be RFA's (strome 100% would be, not totally sure on kubalik because he would b just turning 27). If we can't get 3 year deals done then we should only give Strome/Kubalik 1 year deals. If they can both show that they are the real deal one more season that I would be 100% ok worth giving them long term contracts. 2 year deals could force us to give them a lot of money in 2 years and I don't want to be messing around with that when Kane, Toews, Kieth, and Debrincat need extentions
11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 38
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Quoting: keep_ups12
Yes for sure. Lyabushkin had an amazing year for a bottom pairing defense man. Amazing on offense and defense. Lyabushkin isn't on his ELC. He needs a new contract and we could easily just OS him for a third so they wouldn't mind giving him to a team that isn't in their conference. So your point their is in valid. Murphy had Gustafsson as a linemate to and Lyabushkin has Oesterle who I have heard of once in my lifetime. For advance stats Lyabushkin leads in GF/60, xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60. The only thing Murphy takes is CA/60. Lyabushkin is also a way better puck mover and I am pretty sure murphy doesn't even know what that is.


Gustafson is a train wreck defensivly. Thats why he was paired with our best shut down dman in Murphy. Also, and offer sheet has never happened before, so i'm going to assume that it doesn't happen on Lyabushkin until I see otherwise. I think its just stupid to assume you're gonna offer sheet a third pair dman and that's gonna solve all your problems
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11 juill. 2020 à 12 h 59
#12
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All looks good here to me. If it truly is between Lafreniere, Lundell, Quinn and Sanderson, then I’m going to be very happy on draft day.

Mitchell will have a lot to prove if he’s going to replace Murphy imo, our right side is shaky as it is. Boqvist would have to take a noticeable step forward too for me to feel really confident in trading him.
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11 juill. 2020 à 13 h 35
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Quoting: keep_ups12
Yes for sure. Lyabushkin had an amazing year for a bottom pairing defense man. Amazing on offense and defense. Lyabushkin isn't on his ELC. He needs a new contract and we could easily just OS him for a third so they wouldn't mind giving him to a team that isn't in their conference. So your point their is in valid. Murphy had Gustafsson as a linemate to and Lyabushkin has Oesterle who I have heard of once in my lifetime. For advance stats Lyabushkin leads in GF/60, xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60. The only thing Murphy takes is CA/60. Lyabushkin is also a way better puck mover and I am pretty sure murphy doesn't even know what that is.


Not trying to be a total jerk but you clearly don't know what you're talking about even starting with the spelling of Lyubushkin's name.

Lyubushkin is not even close to being better. Murphy was playing top line and 2nd line minutes which means more often then not playing against the better lines of the opposing team ATOI at over 21 minutes a game versus 14 minutes a game for Lyubushkin who played a sheltered role on the 3rd line. Furthermore, Murphy plays on the PK (Lyubushkin does not) which hurts stats not helps when the team is a man down. Lyubushkin is a healthy scratch quite a bit, Murphy is never. You talk about Lyubushkin being a puck moving D guy but he had all of 4 assists (0 goals). You are right about one thing, Murphy is a not known to be a puck moving D guy, he's known to be a strong stay at home guy with great passing skills, great shot blocking (138 shots to Lyubushkin's 53), and despite not being more offensive, Murphy still puts up 19 points (5 goals)! Lastly, the reason Murphy played with Gus is because Gus sucked defensively and Murphy is the Hawk's best defender....this was to cover for Guys in his own zone. For you not to simply understand that fact, further tells me you don't understand at all the player.

Again, suggesting Lyubushkin is better then Murphy is absolutely laughable...not going to debate your silly claim any further, it's not worth the time.
11 juill. 2020 à 13 h 40
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Quoting: ForsbergForVezina
All looks good here to me. If it truly is between Lafreniere, Lundell, Quinn and Sanderson, then I’m going to be very happy on draft day.

Mitchell will have a lot to prove if he’s going to replace Murphy imo, our right side is shaky as it is. Boqvist would have to take a noticeable step forward too for me to feel really confident in trading him.


Mitchell will not be able to be a replacement that is as good or better then Murphy in his first year. As you know they aren't similar players either so kind of tough to compare. That said, I would prefer to move De Haan and switch Murphy to the Left side, but De Haan's trade value is not going to be good right now coming off his injuries. Obviously Murphy is a better player then De Haan though and would be a great pairing with Mitchell. Keeping both De haan and Murphy and pairing them together on the 2nd line would be an awesome shut down pairing though so something to think about. As you know, our biggest problem is Seabs is not going to be benched most games, so it is what it is. Maybe they can convince him to retire next year which I believe with the new CBA, players over 35 that retire the team gets cap relief, but I see no way he retires this coming season. Let's just hope his new hips give him a little bit of a fountain of youth. Carlsson next to him will help as well as Carlsson is a very solid 3rd liner with upside.
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11 juill. 2020 à 13 h 56
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Quoting: Wadejos123
Gustafson is a train wreck defensivly. Thats why he was paired with our best shut down dman in Murphy. Also, and offer sheet has never happened before, so i'm going to assume that it doesn't happen on Lyabushkin until I see otherwise. I think its just stupid to assume you're gonna offer sheet a third pair dman and that's gonna solve all your problems


yes I was using him as an example on offense. Gustafsson was a 60 point defense man and that could be a factor in Murphy's offensive metrics. And no. Were not gonna OS him. I meant trade a 3rd for him. Arizona has Soderstrom in their system and their right side is pretty much full. He could be Rielly's d partner

Quoting: ChiHawk
Not trying to be a total jerk but you clearly don't know what you're talking about even starting with the spelling of Lyubushkin's name.

Lyubushkin is not even close to being better. Murphy was playing top line and 2nd line minutes which means more often then not playing against the better lines of the opposing team ATOI at over 21 minutes a game versus 14 minutes a game for Lyubushkin who played a sheltered role on the 3rd line. Furthermore, Murphy plays on the PK (Lyubushkin does not) which hurts stats not helps when the team is a man down. Lyubushkin is a healthy scratch quite a bit, Murphy is never. You talk about Lyubushkin being a puck moving D guy but he had all of 4 assists (0 goals). You are right about one thing, Murphy is a not known to be a puck moving D guy, he's known to be a strong stay at home guy with great passing skills, great shot blocking (138 shots to Lyubushkin's 53), and despite not being more offensive, Murphy still puts up 19 points (5 goals)! Lastly, the reason Murphy played with Gus is because Gus sucked defensively and Murphy is the Hawk's best defender....this was to cover for Guys in his own zone. For you not to simply understand that fact, further tells me you don't understand at all the player.

Again, suggesting Lyubushkin is better then Murphy is absolutely laughable...not going to debate your silly claim any further, it's not worth the time.


Ok bud il spell Lyubushkin's name right. Like thats even the point of this convo

Lyabushkin did start of the season playing teams bottom pairing defense man but that does not mean he isn't a top 4 dman. If I am not mistaken, Lyubushkin actually got promoted and started playing top 4 mintues with OEL. I have no idea why Arizona hasn't tried him on the pk. Arizona has Chychrun, OEL, Demers, and Hjarmlsson who are all good on the pk. They should replace Demers with Lyubushkin on the pk. You don't need to have points to be a good puck moving defense man. He mainly carries the puck into the neutral zone. Il give you that Murphy is a great shot blocker (most likely better) but that does not make him better at defense. That could just mean that more pucks hit you.

I'm sorry but standard stats (blocked shots, hits, Takeaways ETC) don't define a player being good at defense. You have to look at the advance metrics to truly see. Like I said Lyubushkin leads in GF/60, xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60. He also has a better xGAR. But if its not worth your time then you don't have to listen
11 juill. 2020 à 14 h 21
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Quoting: keep_ups12
yes I was using him as an example on offense. Gustafsson was a 60 point defense man and that could be a factor in Murphy's offensive metrics. And no. Were not gonna OS him. I meant trade a 3rd for him. Arizona has Soderstrom in their system and their right side is pretty much full. He could be Rielly's d partner



Ok bud il spell Lyubushkin's name right. Like thats even the point of this convo

Lyabushkin did start of the season playing teams bottom pairing defense man but that does not mean he isn't a top 4 dman. If I am not mistaken, Lyubushkin actually got promoted and started playing top 4 mintues with OEL. I have no idea why Arizona hasn't tried him on the pk. Arizona has Chychrun, OEL, Demers, and Hjarmlsson who are all good on the pk. They should replace Demers with Lyubushkin on the pk. You don't need to have points to be a good puck moving defense man. He mainly carries the puck into the neutral zone. Il give you that Murphy is a great shot blocker (most likely better) but that does not make him better at defense. That could just mean that more pucks hit you.

I'm sorry but standard stats (blocked shots, hits, Takeaways ETC) don't define a player being good at defense. You have to look at the advance metrics to truly see. Like I said Lyubushkin leads in GF/60, xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60. He also has a better xGAR. But if its not worth your time then you don't have to listen


If you think he's better than murphy that makes me question if you really know what any of those stats mean
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11 juill. 2020 à 14 h 32
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Quoting: Wadejos123
If you think he's better than murphy that makes me question if you really know what any of those stats mean


GAR is expected goals above replacement. Also the other 4 are part of the RAMP chart. Those ones are hard to explain but it might show here https://public.tableau.com/profile/hbanalytics#!/
11 juill. 2020 à 15 h 29
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Quoting: keep_ups12
yes I was using him as an example on offense. Gustafsson was a 60 point defense man and that could be a factor in Murphy's offensive metrics. And no. Were not gonna OS him. I meant trade a 3rd for him. Arizona has Soderstrom in their system and their right side is pretty much full. He could be Rielly's d partner



Ok bud il spell Lyubushkin's name right. Like thats even the point of this convo

Lyabushkin did start of the season playing teams bottom pairing defense man but that does not mean he isn't a top 4 dman. If I am not mistaken, Lyubushkin actually got promoted and started playing top 4 mintues with OEL. I have no idea why Arizona hasn't tried him on the pk. Arizona has Chychrun, OEL, Demers, and Hjarmlsson who are all good on the pk. They should replace Demers with Lyubushkin on the pk. You don't need to have points to be a good puck moving defense man. He mainly carries the puck into the neutral zone. Il give you that Murphy is a great shot blocker (most likely better) but that does not make him better at defense. That could just mean that more pucks hit you.

I'm sorry but standard stats (blocked shots, hits, Takeaways ETC) don't define a player being good at defense. You have to look at the advance metrics to truly see. Like I said Lyubushkin leads in GF/60, xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60. He also has a better xGAR. But if its not worth your time then you don't have to listen


laugh this is comical at best
Wadejos123 a aimé ceci.
11 juill. 2020 à 15 h 45
#19
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Modifié 11 juill. 2020 à 16 h 49
Quoting: ChiHawk
Strome and Kubalik both will not want to sign long term, they will want short term deals to maximize a long term contract when the cap raises. This will be common for players coming off of ELCs the this offseason and next.

Big signings and big trades are going to be limited. Teams will be closely looking at trades that benefit both teams but not acquiring much more cap.


I disagree. I think player elected arbitration is going to be all the rage. The team then elects 1 year or 2 so the contract is short by default not a negotiating ploy the team will try to take advantage of.

I think there are 4 teams that actively want to take on cap room if teams are willing to give up decent prospects or draft picks. Detroit, Ottawa, LA, and New Jersey are all open for business. Colorado is a team that is willing to take on cap space for 1 year as they have Makar and Landeskog to re-up after next year followed by Bowen Byram the year afterwards.

Because there aren't going to be that many buyers and sellers are going to be numerous, deals for 1st round picks are going to be the premium required. Tampa, Chicago, Arizona, St. Louis, and Toronto all will need to complete trades or buyouts that will be on the books for years will have to happen.
11 juill. 2020 à 20 h 24
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Quoting: ChiHawk
laugh this is comical at best


Yep. Keep going please

Quoting: Wadejos123
If you think he's better than murphy that makes me question if you really know what any of those stats mean


here I found the glossory. Like I said the xGAR is goals above replacement

The RAMP chart is
GF/60=Goals for per 60
xGF/60=Expected goals for per 60
CF/60=Corsi for per 60
xGA/60=Expected goals against per 60
CA/60=Corsi against per 60

Per 60=60 mins of ice time

All stats are on-ice, adjusted for teammate/opponent/venue/score effects

Need me to say more or do you keep telling me how "great" connor Murphy is and how he is "worth" Kapanen.

all these stats are from evolving hockey/evolving wild. One of the highest stat websites. Thank you very much for your time popcorn
11 juill. 2020 à 22 h 59
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Quoting: keep_ups12
Yep. Keep going please



here I found the glossory. Like I said the xGAR is goals above replacement

The RAMP chart is
GF/60=Goals for per 60
xGF/60=Expected goals for per 60
CF/60=Corsi for per 60
xGA/60=Expected goals against per 60
CA/60=Corsi against per 60

Per 60=60 mins of ice time

All stats are on-ice, adjusted for teammate/opponent/venue/score effects

Need me to say more or do you keep telling me how "great" connor Murphy is and how he is "worth" Kapanen.

all these stats are from evolving hockey/evolving wild. One of the highest stat websites. Thank you very much for your time popcorn


You really don't understand hockey defenseman if you are deciding the value of player on those stats. Honest question, have you ever played the game at a truly competitive level or just a fan looking at stats sheets? This makes zero sense. 10 out of 10 professional analysts would strongly disagree with your statements here...it's honestly comical.
 
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