I've seen a lot of discussion on whether or not Barzal will get offer sheeted, and I kind of see both sides of it. On one hand, Barzal is a fantastic player, and a pick compensation of 2 1sts, 1 2nd and 1 3rd rounder (no one's going to give up 4 1sts for anyone) is definitely worth acquiring a rising star Center you can build an offense around. On the other hand, Covid has thrown a wrench in nearly every team's financial plans, and overpaying for an RFA when everyone's financial futures are murky might not be the smartest choice for a team.
But suppose a team offers 10m aav with a term of 4 years. Any higher aav would mean giving up 4 1st rounders. Offering a 4 year contract to Barzal, just long enough to carry him to UFA without really giving any security to the Isles, makes this the most toxic yet plausible offer sheet Barzal could receive. However, I still think the Isles would rather deal with this than let Barzal go for compensatory picks.
Now there are two ways this could go:
1). The Isles persuade Ladd to accept his fate as a perpetual LTIR contract, deal Komarov and Leddy to dump cap, and the Isles then get to keep all of Barzal, Pulock and Toews.
2). Ladd insist on playing, even if it's in the AHL, and the Isles are forced to deal Komarov and Leddy AND still have to give up one of Pulock and Toews. I think the obvious one to give up is Toews, as much as I enjoy watching him play for the Islanders. The one silver lining here is that you could probably get a team to take either Ladd's or Boychuk's contract if it means they receive Toews' RFA rights. Maybe add in a 2nd rounder, either way, I could see a team taking a 2nd pairing offensive defenseman under RFA even if it means a bad contract in the short term.
If the 2nd scenario comes to pass, the Isles will be in trouble on defense. Hickey and Aho are both fine and could probably handle a 3rd pairing gig, but I doubt either of them are quite good enough to handle the 2 LHD slot (maybe Aho down the road? Not now though), so the Isles' strength on defense will wither. It'd be theoretically possible to use the money made available by moving Boychuk to fill that hole in free agency, but that'd come with its own set of risks.
Still, even in this worst case scenario, could you really say the Isles would be better off letting Barzal leave via offer sheet? Wouldn't we rather risk losing Toews than lose Barzal for compensation picks?
It doesn't have to be the Senators, just any team willing to eat two bad years of Boychuk's contract if it means getting a young, 2nd pairing offensive defenseman.
I rather just take Leddy for two 5this or something. That's only if we can't acquire Hjarmarsson and Grabner. We only need a Vet LD for 1 year. Leddy has 2 years left on his contract.
I rather just take Leddy for two 5this or something. That's only if we can't acquire Hjarmarsson and Grabner. We only need a Vet LD for 1 year. Leddy has 2 years left on his contract.
Leddy is going to cost you a 3rd if you don't take back a cap dump.
Leddy is going to cost you a 3rd if you don't take back a cap dump.
Even then, the point of this post is to display why offer sheets won't work in acquiring Barzal unless the Isles get 4 1sts out of it. Where exactly the Isles send Leddy/Komarov is besides the point.
Even then, the point of this post is to display why offer sheets won't work in acquiring Barzal unless the Isles get 4 1sts out of it. Where exactly the Isles send Leddy/Komarov is besides the point.
Makes sense. FWIW, I'd accept that trade if I were the Kings, although I would prefer the pick be in 2021.
I don't understand everyone talking about convincing Ladd to go on LTIR? The player has to have a long term injury to go on it no? You can't just talk the player into it?
I don't understand everyone talking about convincing Ladd to go on LTIR? The player has to have a long term injury to go on it no? You can't just talk the player into it?
Even then, the point of this post is to display why offer sheets won't work in acquiring Barzal unless the Isles get 4 1sts out of it. Where exactly the Isles send Leddy/Komarov is besides the point.
Negotiated offersheet that looks more like 4 1sts than 2 1sts 1 second 1 third, what I mean is 2 past first rounders that don’t have to be protected for expansion and 2 1sts might be intriguing with the added cap room. Isles don’t really need to get that much younger by any means. Barzal age group is needed for success now.
I don't understand everyone talking about convincing Ladd to go on LTIR? The player has to have a long term injury to go on it no? You can't just talk the player into it?
Tell that to Joffrey Lupul.
You just need a doctor to diagnose him with an "equipment allergy" or "degenerative back condition" or something that will keep him out of the lineup. I makes more sense for older players that won't be getting new contracts elsewhere, as they can just "retire" early and continue to collect their paychecks.
The league has tried and failed to investigate and put an end to these obviously bogus career-ending injuries. If Ladd feels that he has more to contribute elsewhere, then he won't be on board for this, but if the alternative is finishing out his career in the AHL then I bet he would consider it.
I don't understand everyone talking about convincing Ladd to go on LTIR? The player has to have a long term injury to go on it no? You can't just talk the player into it?
Everyone's talking about it because Arthur Staple, who usually gets news about the Islanders spot on, said that's what could happen. And since this site is for predictions, speculation, etc, it's worth an Isles fan's time on this site to portray or discuss what Arthur Staple is talking about. While Ladd has been plagued by knee injuries for quite some time, and you could definitely argue that aggravating a knee injury disrupts quality of life, I do kind of agree with you. I doubt Ladd goes to LTIR simply on the grounds that he's won't want to, and it's not like the league has been lenient with the Isles' needs lately, why would they start now?
That's why I depicted the scenario here where the Isles couldn't LTIR Ladd and were forced to give up on keeping Toews. I don't like it, but it could definitely happen, and if it means keeping Barzal, we might have to do it.
Exactly, I don't want him. He's not a good fit and Komorov won't waive anyway...
Komarov doesn't have a full NTC. He only gets to provide a 7-team no-trade list. My guess is that LA isn't going to be on any player's 7-team list.
Even if he did have full trade protection, the Island isn't near the top of the list of desirable places in the league to play. That should improve with the new arena (and hopefully improved training facilities to go along with). Manhattan Beach, on the other hand, is pretty much the ideal place to live in North America. The Kings are an up and coming team, and with the new NTC rules that allow the clause to remain after a trade, Komarov can all but ensure that he doesn't get moved again.
There's any number of reasons why this trade wouldn't happen, but Komarov's NTC isn't one of them.
I don't understand everyone talking about convincing Ladd to go on LTIR? The player has to have a long term injury to go on it no? You can't just talk the player into it?
You mean the guy thats played 30 games the past 2 seasons. Who has gone through sports hernia, knee replacement, a concussion and shoulder injuries?
Komarov doesn't have a full NTC. He only gets to provide a 7-team no-trade list. My guess is that LA isn't going to be on any player's 7-team list.
Even if he did have full trade protection, the Island isn't near the top of the list of desirable places in the league to play. That should improve with the new arena (and hopefully improved training facilities to go along with). Manhattan Beach, on the other hand, is pretty much the ideal place to live in North America. The Kings are an up and coming team, and with the new NTC rules that allow the clause to remain after a trade, Komarov can all but ensure that he doesn't get moved again.
There's any number of reasons why this trade wouldn't happen, but Komarov's NTC isn't one of them.
Regardless Islanders are basically a contender and the Kings are not. I'm sure he'd pick the last 7 teams in the standings considering at his age, I'm sure he wants to win.
You mean the guy thats played 30 games the past 2 seasons. Who has gone through sports hernia, knee replacement, a concussion and shoulder injuries?
For me, the concern is that Ladd will not accept going to LTIR. He wants to play, so unless he gets reinjured, there's not much the Isles can do if Ladd wants to play.
You mean the guy thats played 30 games the past 2 seasons. Who has gone through sports hernia, knee replacement, a concussion and shoulder injuries?
Hes played 66.... and even if he has been injured he has to be 'diagnosed' with a serious enough career ending injury as noted above by someone else. Not just that he has been hurt in his past and the NYI don't want his cap hit anymore
Leddy and Komorov together carries a bit less value than Boychuk alone.
So if Boychuk cost Toews to get off your hands....you're going to need to throw down at least a 1st to move Leddy/Komorov.
The idea behind Leddy/Komarov trades is that Leddy has value and Komarov has negative value due to his contract. Leddy is the compensation for taking Komarov, and if no one would agree to this trade, you could still move Leddy on his own and expect at the very least a pair of 3rd rounders back. I also wouldn't compare Boychuk's contract to Komarov's contract. Komarov has half the cap hit, is a couple years younger and has a much more flexible trade clause. Boychuk understandably would take a significant asset like Toews to get rid of. If a team told me they'd take Komarov's contract for a 1st rounder, I would take that offer at all seriously.
The idea behind Leddy/Komarov trades is that Leddy has value
That's the issue right there. Leddy's play has been below replacement level over the past 2 seasons. He has negative value, and considering the cap hit, it's kinda significant.
Here he is compared to some other buyout candidates. Most of whom would cost at least a 1st to get rid of...Leddy doesn't fare well. Most of Leddy's negative value comes from his play at even strength, which is really where you don't wanna see it. Even someone like Nielsen has some value as a defensive 4C.
Hawkisles a aimé ceci.
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