The most likely outcome is MTL does not win 1st overall, so I'm going to assume they do not get Lafreniere.
Minnesota Trade:
- Poehling's stock has fallen after a disappointing season, however coming into this year he had a good resume.
31 pts in 36 games in his D+1 year (0.861 PTS/G) vs. Boldy's 26 pts in 34 games this year (0.765). Poehling made the US WJC team that year, Boldy did not. The following year Poehling was the tournament MVP, and then finished the season with MTL scoring a hat trick in his debut.
For Minnesota, they get a natural center (which they are in need of) who happens to be a local. Poehling is close to being NHL ready, unfortunately in MTL he is behind Domi, Danault, Suzuki, and Kotkaniemi on the depth chart so the organization was trying to convert him into a winger this season.
For MTL, they get a natural winger rather than trying to turn Poehling into one. The fact that Boldy was Caufields linemate on the US development team is a nice bonus, maybe they can find chemistry together on MTL.
I believe Boldy has higher upside, however Poehling is more NHL ready and plays a more important position (Center). With Boldy's stock falling a bit since he was drafted, and Poehlings stock rising up until this season (where he was injured in training camp and forced to play wing) I believe the trade value is close.
St. Louis Trade:
- Habs need a reliable backup goalie. Allen was actually quite good last season in his role, but I don't think it justifies his $4.35M cap hit especially when STL could be resigning Pietrangelo. Habs could just sign a back up goalie, but I like not having to commit any term to a backup.
Contracts:
- Domi extension is modelled after Brayden Schenn's $6.5M × 8 yr extension. Both players had career years and then a disappointing season statistically afterwards. Schenn however was just coming off of a Stanley cup win and he is more physical which gives him an edge over Domi.
- Kovalchuk had 8 pts in 8 games playing with Danault & Tatar, he fit in perfectly with MTL. I believe signing him allows MTL to put Gallagher with Domi and Drouin which hopefully gets those guys going as they are MTL's most important players (as of now). Kovalchuk gets performance bonuses on top of his base salary.
- Simmonds plays tough, he can fight, he can skate for his size, and he has good hands around the net. This makes him a good fit whether it is the "Andrew Shaw" role alongside Drouin and Domi, or just a 4th liner who can stick up for his teammates.
- Ladue, Fluery, and Juulsen battle it out for 3rd pair RD in the NHL. MTL already knows what they have in Fluery, but I think I he could become a better defenceman if he is given more time in the AHL. Juulse could easily play this role, and he could play it perfectly if he can stay healthy, which would be ideal. LaDue is signed to be cheap depth with some potential upside. I think it's likely Seattle takes a defenceman like Fluery or Juulsen in the expansion draft so this is a good way of getting ahead of that scenario.
- Weise brought back cheap to be the 14th forward / locker room guy. Max Domi said Weise is the best type of teammate their is and hopes he is brought back. I can't think of a better player to be 14th forward.
- Hudon rumored to be looking towards the KHL. Habs give him a slight raise to try keep him to play with KK in Laval. Hudon - KK - Ylonen should be the best line MTL's farm system has seen in a long time.
- Kotkaneimi starts in Laval to get lots of practice in playing all situations, especially powerplay. Likely gets called up when injuries happen or towards the end of the season.
- Fluery plays all situations in Laval to try develop him for a top 4 role.
- Juulsen starts in Laval to get back into game speed and condition.
2021 5th round pick is conditional on the amount of games Allen plays:
- < 30 Games = No pick
- 30 Games = 5th Round Pick
- 35 Games = 4th Round Pick
- 40 Games = 3rd Round Pick
You say Boldy has higher upside, I agree, which is exactly why we shouldn't make this trade. Boldy scored 17 points in his final 10 games of the season after being moved back to the wing where he belongs. Aside from his debut, Poehling has not looked very good in the NHL. The Wild need high risk high reward players.
We aren't trading Boldy unless it's for a high profile center (which Poehling is not) and Montreal isn't trading any of their players that fit that description.
Yeah Poehling projects as a 3c Boldy still projects as top 6 LW. Boldy had a slow start as they tried him at center, didn't go well, he ended the season strong.
It's worth a try for Montreal, but I assume Minnesota will turn it down.
I assume that Juulsen will start in the NHL, as he does have to pass through waivers. No matter what we think of him as a player, the Canadiens will not want to loose him for nothing (which they most certainly will if he goes to waivers). Unless there is an off-season trade, I think the right side is locked in at Weber, Petry and Juulsen. Now, about that left side...
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