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Pontypools trade value

Équipe: 2020-21 Oilers d'Edmonton
Date de création initiale: 6 juin 2020
Publié: 6 juin 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
When the Oilers finally gave up on Yakupov, they only got an useless prospect and a 3rd Rd pick.
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2020
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2021
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2022
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2681 500 000 $78 950 198 $341 534 $1 322 500 $2 549 802 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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5 750 000 $5 750 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 3
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12 500 000 $12 500 000 $
C
UFA - 6
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3 200 000 $3 200 000 $
AD
UFA - 4
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875 000 $875 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
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8 500 000 $8 500 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 5
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894 166 $894 166 $ (Bonis de performance230 000 $$230K)
AD
RFA - 1
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1 200 000 $1 200 000 $
AG, C
UFA - 1
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6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
AG, C
UFA - 1
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2 150 000 $2 150 000 $
AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
700 000 $700 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
915 000 $915 000 $
C
UFA - 1
Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton
1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
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808 333 $808 333 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
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870 000 $870 000 $ (Bonis de performance132 500 $$132K)
AD, C
RFA - 3
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775 000 $775 000 $ (Bonis de performance87 500 $$88K)
AD, AG
UFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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4 167 000 $4 167 000 $
DG
UFA - 3
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4 166 666 $4 166 666 $
DD
UFA - 1
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4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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5 600 000 $5 600 000 $
DG
UFA - 2
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4 000 000 $4 000 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
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784 166 $784 166 $ (Bonis de performance107 500 $$108K)
G
UFA - 1
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850 000 $850 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 2
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863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance500 000 $$500K)
DD
RFA - 3
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745 000 $745 000 $ (Bonis de performance132 500 $$132K)
G
UFA - 1
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894 167 $894 167 $
DG
RFA - 4
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817 500 $817 500 $ (Bonis de performance132 500 $$132K)
DG
UFA - 2

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6 juin 2020 à 11 h 5
#1
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Yakupov turned out to be garbage though, Poolparty just wont sign with the team, hes still NHL caliber
6 juin 2020 à 11 h 8
#2
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Yakupov turned out to be garbage though, Poolparty just wont sign with the team, hes still NHL caliber


He won't sign with the team because he believes he is NHL Top 6 forward talent and the Oilers viewed him as 3rd line talent.

If he can't keep up with the talent of a McDavid or Draisaitl than the Oilers are right.
6 juin 2020 à 11 h 17
#3
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Yakupov turned out to be garbage though, Poolparty just wont sign with the team, hes still NHL caliber


He's not signed because he wants to play top 6, and the oilers know he is bottom 6. Just what he said I guesstears of joy
Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
He won't sign with the team because he believes he is NHL Top 6 forward talent and the Oilers viewed him as 3rd line talent.

If he can't keep up with the talent of a McDavid or Draisaitl than the Oilers are right.
6 juin 2020 à 11 h 44
#4
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
He won't sign with the team because he believes he is NHL Top 6 forward talent and the Oilers viewed him as 3rd line talent.

If he can't keep up with the talent of a McDavid or Draisaitl than the Oilers are right.


well to be fair, the Oilers don't really have much of an NHL level bottom 6. But you're right. JP's reason for not signing was that he wanted as he said 15 mins a night in a consistent top 6 role. I don't think there are too many teams that could offer that, Sens? maybe Detroit? LA? Send Puljujarvi to a team like that and see what he can do. Most of Puljujarvi's game is just being a trigger guy and tapping in dirty goals. I'd say send him to Ottawa, put him opposite Duclair and see if that works, take back whatever picks you can squeeze out of Dorion and move on.
6 juin 2020 à 11 h 44
#5
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The asking price is apparently a 1st and a prospect. They wont get it but Holland has already said he has turned down offers for 2nd rounders already
6 juin 2020 à 11 h 51
#6
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Quoting: Subbanator7667
The asking price is apparently a 1st and a prospect. They wont get it but Holland has already said he has turned down offers for 2nd rounders already


Maybe Holland talks to Stevie Y and gets those two Draft picks ( either two of the 2nd and 4th from the A.A. trade) back from Detroit for Pontypool, the Wings are for sure a team Pontypool would land Top 6 forward spot.
6 juin 2020 à 12 h 9
#7
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Maybe Holland talks to Stevie Y and gets those two Draft picks ( either two of the 2nd and 4th from the A.A. trade) back from Detroit for Pontypool, the Wings are for sure a team Pontypool would land Top 6 forward spot.


They need to get something for him and soon. His value will just continue to drop the longer he is away from the NHL
6 juin 2020 à 12 h 25
#8
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Definitely something tp think about.
He is still young (only 22), had 20 points in 60ish games in his first FULL year, then dropped to 9 points in like 45 his sophomore year
If he is being considered a "bust", then there are A LOT of young guys are there who are also.

Logically it seems he is still worth about a 2nd round pick.
6 juin 2020 à 12 h 30
#9
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Quoting: Silkysmooth42
Definitely something tp think about.
He is still young (only 22), had 20 points in 60ish games in his first FULL year, then dropped to 9 points in like 45 his sophomore year
If he is being considered a "bust", then there are A LOT of young guys are there who are also.

Logically it seems he is still worth about a 2nd round pick.


That's why in my above post, I suggest trading him to the Wings so the Oilers can reclaim their either the 2020 or 2021 2nd Rd pick and their 2020 4th Rd pick which were trading away to get A.A.
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6 juin 2020 à 19 h 2
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I feel like I'm walking into a trap here, but I'll post anyhow. In another forum a few couple years ago we looked into the way Puljujarvi had been bounced around the lineup and up and down between the AHL and NHL, how he was forced to "earn" his playing time, etc. I took a look at several young European wingers who entered the league just prior to Puljujarvi and how much ice they got with skill centers, and the difference is stark - even though Jesse was putting up similar numbers.

Here are each winger's 5v5 P/60 with their top 2 centers:

DRAFT +1
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 0.00 (0:43)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (29:09)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.31 (45:49)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.55 (141:15)
Nylander: NO NHL TOI
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 2.86 (84:01)
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 1.67 (107:28)

Rantanen and Nylander did nothing, Toronto smartly leaving Nylander in the AHL for the entire year. Puljujarvi’s numbers were better than Pastrnak’s.

DRAFT +2
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 1.66 (684:55)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.86 (350:34)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.96 (61:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.04 (499:06)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 0.00 (4:57)
Nylander w/ Bozak: 0.00 (1.45)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 1.87 (256:57)
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 2.37 (101:22)

Note the differences? Rantanen gets glued to the top-6 despite not achieving much, Pastrnak is playing with skill but also not getting top defensive assignments with Bergeron, while Nylander is playing on the 3rd line after having played well for the first half of the season in the AHL. Meanwhile Puljujarvi is not getting consistent linemates anywhere, despite scoring a an equal or better rate than his peers. Nice development plan.

DRAFT +3
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 2.28 (946:52)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (12:48)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 2.22 (541:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 1.54 (429:40)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 2.17 (360:06)
Nylander w/ Matthews: 1.82 (624:42)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 1.80 (66:46)
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 0.00 (74:25)

Here we see where the other team's development plans worked out, as all 3 are getting consistent top-6 ice time and all 3 are delivering consistent results.
Unfortunately we see Puljujarvi getting jacked around still. Remember that JP was playing with a hip issue all year, until the team finally pulled the plug on his season and ordered surgery.

No question that Puljujarvi has ability, he put up similar or better numbers to these 3 very good players when healthy despite the screw up that was his development plan in Edmonton. I think there are multiple GM's that see a whole lot of untapped potential in this young man, they just aren't sure if they can undo the damage that's already been done. Jesse playing well in Finland has helped, but it's not the NHL and there will still be some reserves.
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6 juin 2020 à 19 h 43
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Trade him to Carolina to play with his pal Aho, he’s already said if Puljujärvi comes over he’d do great.
See what you can get out of them.
6 juin 2020 à 22 h 51
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Quoting: Just_a_Hockey_Fan_1
Trade him to Carolina to play with his pal Aho, he’s already said if Puljujärvi comes over he’d do great.
See what you can get out of them.


Geekie and a 2nd Rd pick.
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7 juin 2020 à 8 h 25
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Here's an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of the #33 pick becoming a top player is just under 30%. And that's with stretching the 14-25 category when there isn't a lot of evidence we should.

So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi's chances of becoming a top player? I'll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I'm not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn't written yet), and I'm ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old's who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

Beauvillier
Boedker
PM Bouchard
Josefson
Latendresse
Lindholm
Couterier
Lucic
O'Reilly
Jost
J Staal
Zacha
Turris
Johansen
Puljujarvi
Seguin
Tlusty
Burmistrov
Smith-Pelly
Weiss
McCann

Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became "top" players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you're left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

Now we turn to Jesse's 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I'm not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

How many of them became "top" NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL, which is a similar probability to that of a #4 - 7 pick in an average draft. I'm not going to say he's worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don't think his ceiling is as high as those guys. There's a vast difference between being top-6 (Milan Lucic) and being top-6 (Nicklas Backstrom or Mitch Marner).

If Holland is indeed asking for a mid- to late-1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why. Puljujarvi has a higher floor than a typical pick in this range (he's far more likely to become a top-6 forward) and about as high a ceiling.
7 juin 2020 à 11 h 12
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Modifié 7 juin 2020 à 11 h 32
I stated that Puljujarvi isn't worth a top-10 pick in the 2020 draft and I believe that. I would rather have Rossi, Raymond or Perfetti in the Oilers system and it's not close. But in doing this research I've come to the realization that I - and the vast majority or posters here - probably overvalue picks.

For instance, when my research above showed that Puljujarvi had a similar probability of becoming a top-6 player as a typical #4-7 pick, misguided Leafs fans freaked out. So here is a look at all the forwards that have been drafted in the 4-7 range in the 15 years looking back from the seminal 2015 draft, along with their GP to date and their career P/GP.

Marner: 300, 0.97
Zacha: 266, 0.41
Bennett: 364, 0.35
Dal Colle: 85, 0.20
Virtanen: 269, 0.34
Lindholm: 525, 0.61
Monahan: 541, 0.76
Strome: 491, 0.52
Zibanejad: 548, 0.70
Scheifele: 519, 0.86
Johansen: 660, 0.67
Niederreiter: 601, 0.48
Connolly: 496, 0.38
Skinner: 720, 0.65
Kane: 713, 0.64
Schenn: 658, 0.65
Kadri: 612, 0.64
Folatov: 53, 0.26
Wilson: 632, 0.45
Gagner: 844, 0.54
Voracek: 915, 0.76
Backstrom: 956, 0.97
Kessel: 1066, 0.81
Brassard: 852, 0.57
Okposo: 800, 0.63
Pouliot: 625, 0.42
Brule: 299, 0.32
Skille: 368, 0.23
Ladd: 950, 0.57
Wheeler: 931, 0.82
Olesz: 365, 0.37
Zherdev: 421, 0.62
Vanek: 1029, 0.77
Michalek: 747, 0.60
Upshall: 759, 0.38
Lupul: 701, 0.60
Weiss: 732, 0.58
Chitsov: 196, 0.31
Koivu: 1028, 0.69

That's 39 forwards take with picks 4-7 in 15 years. Let's rearrange them by performance thus:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/39 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 8/39 = 20.5%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 17/39 = 43.6%
Bottom-6 (< 0.50): 14/39 = 35.9%

High picks are great, but (cap aside) if you have a chance to trade your (say) #7 pick for an established player in his early 20's who scores 0.75 P/GP, you'd be best to make that deal.
 
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