Balcers.

I like the way you're spending picks to give the team a boost now. Keep the highest picks, but since the others won't help the team for 3-5 years (if ever) using them to strip assets from cap strapped teams is so smart.

Hopefully Dorion can do something similar in the offseason. Ottawa could be competitive again in a hurry.

Tampa isn't trading Cirelli, Byfield isn't NHL ready yet and Stutzle has stated that he plans on playing another season in the DEL so both aren't playing next season. If Puljujarvi goes anywhere it's either to the Red Wings or Rangers Yzerman is the only GM to have scouted him.

Holland will trade Puljujarvi to any team that will meet his price.

Byfield and Stutzle can be replaced by Anisimov and Ryan. Just a placeholder, if you will.

Puljujarvi will go where they trade him. This is simply an offer. Does Detroit offer more? It's possible. Who would they trade to acquire poolparty?

And from the sound of things, His price is absurd. So he may not get his price or GMs will just walk away.

Even then, if they go the slow route, by 2022, they could be competitive again. Not for a cup, mind you, but more for a playoff spot. Maybe a wildcard.

At best Jesse Puljujarvi gets the same return as Andreas Athanasiou 2 2nd round picks. There's been rumor of Lias Andersson+ for Jesse Puljujarvi and that's quite possible if the plus is a 2nd round pick or so. Honestly i doubt Yzerman surrenders what Holland would want for Pool-Party the Rangers are probably the most likely destination for him.

At best Jesse Puljujarvi gets the same return as Andreas Athanasiou 2 2nd round picks. There's been rumor of Lias Andersson+ for Jesse Puljujarvi and that's quite possible if the plus is a 2nd round pick or so. Honestly i doubt Yzerman surrenders what Holland would want for Pool-Party the Rangers are probably the most likely destination for him.

I LIKE IT. I do agree that Tampa will try to hang onto Cirelli but they need to ship someone so they'll likely listen to all offers and then decide. It's not IMPOSSIBLE.

I do feel like it's an overpayment for Puljujarvi. Yes yes yes "higher ceiling blah blah blah", but Balcers has .333 points per game (51 games) and Puljujarvi is at .266 after 139 games; and Balcers won't run away to Liiga if he isn't played in the top 6 (which Puljujarvi didn't earn). All that aside I'd make the deal if EDM gave back their 5th instead of their 7th. Which means they are still getting a 33rd OA (likely a player many had going in the 1st round) in exchange for a 144th.

Two 2nd rounders isn't impossible. That's actually a decent offer. I honestly think the Sens should at least offer that and see what Holland says. But, I think you may be right about this.

I get that you said "AT BEST" but that makes it sounds possible - and it shouldn't be. After 300 NHL games Athanasiou has .514 points per game. That's a proven skillset. Puljujarvi has .266 points per game after 139 games and before running away to Liiga because he wasn't handed a top line role. There is NO WORLD where Puljujarvi should get two 2nd round drafts. NONE. I'd be hard pressed to give up a SINGLE PICK any higher than 50th.

Puljujarvi put up those numbers at 18, 19 and as an injured 20-year-old. Athanasiou didn't play a single NHL game until he was 21-and-a-half. You can't compare their stats directly for this reason.

I like it. I think I'd rather have Miller than Montour, and I don't think Ottawa should have to give up the 3rd. One for one is totally fair imo.

I would hate seeing Balcers leave, but that seems fair for Puljujarvi. It's easier to see a spot long term for an RW like JP than Balcers who is competing with so many LWs.

I dont think 2 seconds, I dont think 33OA.

I would offer Balcers and DAL 2nd, and I wouldnt worry about a pick coming back

Not sure Inwould be going so far as to say Tampa will never move Cirelli. They have some tiugh contracts to move to make room for him, Sergachev and Cernak.

I will agree that Tampa defintely prefers not to move him, but, I see a situation there where Brisebois has some very tough choices to make. (For the record, if one of the RFAs have to be moved, my money is on Cernak).

Having said that, if the offer is good, I see Brisebois considering it. Tampa can shuffle things around easily enough to fill the 2C hole, and Brown should fit in nicley at 3C. The deal makes a tonne of sense.

If Cirelli is off the table, I would be offering Brown and a pick for Cernak. Point is, there is a deal there.

You're not wrong. The direct comparison is unfair and should have an * beside it, but it does not change my opinion of his value right now or his ceiling IMO. @PLDGEY nailed it with this:

I'd say you are way overvaluing this picks. #33 OA has probably a 15-25% chance of becoming a top-6 forward. Jesse's chances of becoming a top-6 forward are decidedly better than that, and you don't have to wait 3-5 years for development.

I doubt Holland would bite on that offer. Dallas's 2nd has just a 15% chance of becoming a top-6 player.

This is a good deal for edmonton

They take that price easy tho.

Just stop. No one said you have to agree with this or anything. Why don't the bolts trade cereli? They won't be able to afford him.

Maybe it's just me but I think you spelled Norris incorrectly in the Cirelli trade...

Here's an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of the #33 pick becoming a top player is just under 30%. And that's with stretching the 14-25 category when there isn't a lot of evidence we should.

So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi's chances of becoming a top player? I'll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I'm not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn't written yet), and I'm ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old's who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

Beauvillier
Boedker
PM Bouchard
Josefson
Latendresse
Lindholm
Couterier
Lucic
O'Reilly
Jost
J Staal
Zacha
Turris
Johansen
Puljujarvi
Seguin
Tlusty
Burmistrov
Smith-Pelly
Weiss
McCann

Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became "top" players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you're left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

Now we turn to Jesse's 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I'm not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

How many of them became "top" NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL. That translates to a #4 - 7 pick in an average draft. I'm not going to say he's worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don't think his ceiling is as high as those guys, but to posit that he's not worth an early 2nd is just plain ignorant of the facts.

If Holland is indeed asking for a late 1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why.

Not a chance Pully gets a first. I think a second is more like it.